Tuesday, August 16, 2011

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 16TH AUGUST 2011 TO 19TH AUGUST 2011

INDICES ENDED THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK WITH HUGE LOSSES, WHERE SENSEX CLOSING BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 17000 AT 16839 AND NIFTY AT 5072, ALL OTHER INDICES, LIKE MID-CAP, SMALL-CAP, SECTORAL INDICES EXCEPT FMCG CLOSED IN RED.
WITH THE END OF QUARTER 1 RESULTS, INDIAN MARKETS WILL NOW TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES MAINLY. RECENT DROP IN COMMODITY PRICES MAY BE BENEFICIAL FOR COMPANIES WHICH USE THE COMMODITIES IN INPUT AND ALSO THIS MAY HELP TO CHECK THE RISING INFLATION.
GLOBALLY, IN AMERICA FED HAS DISCUSSED THE THE RANGE OF POLICY TOOLS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE STRONGER ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND SAID IT IS PREPARED TO EMPLOY THESE TOOLS AS APPROPRIATE.  THIS MAY HAVE INCLUDED QE3. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF QE3 HAVE RISEN , IT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL NEXT YEAR WHEN CORE INFLATION HAS STARTED TO FALL BACK. SEVERAL MARKETS LIKE FRANCE, BELGIUM, ITALY & SPAIN ANNOUNCED 15 DAYS BAN ON THE SHORT-SELLING OF CERTAIN FINANCIAL STOCKS AND ITS DERIVATIVES. HENCE GOING FORWARD THE GLOBAL MARKETS COULD SEND SOME MORE JITTERS TO INDIAN MARKETS ALSO.
DOMESTICALLY INFLATION DATA FOR THE MONTH OF JULY &  MONSOON PROGRESS IS SCHEDULED TO BE ANNOUNCED ON 16TH AUGUST, TUESDAY(TODAY), WHICH SHALL ALSO GUIDE THE MARKET. ANY RISE IN INFLATION DATA SHALL MAKE HIGHER CHANCES OF RATE HIKE BY RBI ON ITS 16TH SEPTEMBER MEETING.


MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE VOLATILE IN THIS WEEK, DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET. NIFTY IS LIKELY TO TRADE IN THE BROAD RANGE OF 4950-5250. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE MAY LEAD TO 200 POINTS MOVE.


NO STRATEGY IS SUGGESTED FOR TODAY, 16TH AUGUST 2011, AS THE CHANCES ARE THAT MARKETS MAY START ON POSITIVE GAP-UP OPEN, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE DECLINE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MARKET HOURS.


THOSE WISH TO TRADE SHALL BUY PE 5100 & PE5000 ON ANY RISE IN THE NEAR FUTURE KEEPING 5250 AS SHORT TERM STOP-LOSS AND 5350 AS DEEP STOP-LOSS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS MA BE WEAK AFTER 12 HRS ON 16TH AUGUST TILL 18TH AUGUST. GLOBAL MARKETS MAY SEE HUGE ACTION ON 17TH AUGUST  OR 18TH AUGUST. THERE COULD BE SHARP MOVES, PROBABLY DECLINE, IN THESE DAYS. HENCE THERE WILL BE RISK IN GLOBAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS. HENCE TRADE CAUTIOUSLY. 




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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