Monday, July 30, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 30TH JULY 2012 TO 3RD AUGUST 2012

Last week due to lack of domestic and global triggers, Indian stock market moved in a tight range, while several stocks witnessed a sharp fall and some stocks took a deep cut of around 20% to 45%. There was rumor in the market that those companies which had promoter's holding being pledged were sold in panic and much more than that.......... however on Friday market received some positive global cues and bounced back. However there was clear cut nervousness among the traders and investors due to concerns over monsoon, inflation, global crude prices, delay in reform policy, lesser chances of interest rate cut etc, etc., Sensex closed at 16839.19 & Nifty at 5099.85


Going forward, Indian market is likely to trade choppy on poorer than expected earnings from PSU Banks and major shortfall in rainfall during this monsoon. However on the other hand better than expected earnings from other heavy weights may negate major falls and Nifty may bounce back from 5000-4950 levels, which is expected to be major support levels for the markets. Also the major events like FOMC meeting and RBI Monetary Policy review on 31st July 2012 may give major direction and movement of the market. Hence keep close eye on developments of 31st July and 1st August 2012.


Personal View: There are many Analyst, mostly technical ones, who always cry on slightest correction to be a major fall or crash on anvil, however they have no idea of fundamentals and dynamism other than technical lines..... No one can time the market ever, however one can always be victorious if follows the basic principles and rules of investing..... Hence keep on buying on every dip or sharp correction even if you find the market below 5000, chances of which are very less, buy select Large-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks which shall yield good returns by next 6-8 months. Some good fundamental Stocks are Sashun Pharma, Exide Ind, Trent, Delta Corp,  Dabur, ITC, HUL, SBI, HDFC, Reliance, Zensar Techno, Kenna Metal etc.,


Technically: As per some technical analysts the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a correction of almost 6% in the last two weeks. Now it is expected to face a strong support near 5010. If Nifty breaches 5010 it may further go down and take support near 4920. However , a breach of 5265 would indicate the reversal of current trend and in that case Nifty may test 5400 in the near future. Hence long trading position could be held with strict stop-loss of 5010.


OPTION STRATEGY FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading zone for the Nifty is 5010-5150.
BUY NIFTY CALLS(CE5100 & CE5200): If Nifty moves above 5150, keeping 5010 as stop-loss for the target of 5220-5265
BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE5000 & PE4900): If Nifty moves below 5010, keeping 5100 as stop-loss for the target of 4950-4920


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR SHORT TERM DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS):


1. Shasun Pharma(119.15): Buy in parts for the target of 140-160+++
2. United Breweries(549.00): Buy in parts for the target of 600-640+++
3. Tech Mahindra(716.65): Buy for the target of 730-750-780-800++++ 
4. Jubliant Food (1138.20): Buy in parts for the target of 1180-1220-1300+++
5. Exide (126.55): Buy in parts for the target of 135-140-145++++. Very positive.


FIVE TO SIX MONTHS DELIVERY( Nifty Rally to 6000+++):
1. DELTA CORP: Target 100-125-150++++
2. TRENT: Target 1200-1400-1500+++
3. KENNA METAL: Target 1200-1400-1600+++
4. BATA: Target 1000-1200-1400+++
6. NESCO: Target of 750-900-1000-1200+++


ASTROLOGICALLY: Markets will remain very choppy and uncertain till 8th August as Mercury remains retrograde. There after we could see some up-side. August month will be full of uncertainties and trading could result in losses. Market Rally will start in September till December 2012. Hence New Highs will be made in Nifty by the year end as Saturn will be in Libra forming a very good combination for BULLS........ Buy on Dips


Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Monday, July 23, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 23RD JULY 2012 TO 27TH JULY 2012

Indian Capital Market remained in a range with a lack of buying interest due to mixed corporate results and global cues. Sensex closed at 17158.44 and Nifty closed at 5205.10 closing little lower by 0.4% than the earlier week.


Going forward concern over weak monsoon, deteriorating macro economic conditions and lack of domestic cues is expected to keep the market tepid. The value of rupee in terms of dollar and possibility of rise in crude could be real headwind for the Indian markets.


If the UPA Government is fails to put the reforms on  track soon, markets may take a toll soon else any successful step in term of policy action shall be welcomed by the market. Broadly 5000-4950 remains a strong base, where heavy buying could be started. Stocks like HUL, ITC, L&T, BHEL, ONGC, CAIRN, TATAMOTORS, RELIANCE,HDFC, LIC HOUSING & TCS are the best picks for long term. The Short term range of the Nifty shall be 5150-5400.


Technically Nifty has been moving in the range of 5150 and 5350 for last one month. The same range is expected to continue for next few days. Now if Nifty continues to move above 5400 then the upward rally might take Nifty to 5520 & 5630 in extreme short term. However a breach of 5150 is likely to take Nifty lower to 5040.  Hence long trading position should have a stop-loss of 5150.


FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading zone for the Nifty is 5150-5280
BUY CE5300 & CE5400 :If Nifty moves above 5280 keeping 5150 as Stop-Loss for the target of  5350-5400
BUYPE5200 & PE5100 :If Nifty breaches below 5150 keeping 5280 as Stop-Loss for the target of  5110 & 5040.


Following Stocks are very good for Short Term Investment Delivery(STID)45-60 Days:


1. Orchid(127.30): Buy for the target of 135-138-145+++
2. TCS(1223.05): Buy for the target of 1265-1300+++
3. Jubliant Food(1264.65): Buy for the target of 1325-1350++++
4. India Glycol(138.15): Buy for the target of 155-160+++




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.


Monday, July 16, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 16TH JULY 2012 TO 20TH JULY 2012

INDIAN EQUITY MARKET DECLINED LAST WEEK DUE TO CONCERNS OVER DEFICIENT MONSOON, WEAK EARNINGS (POOR SENTIMENT DUE TO INFOSYS RESULTS BELOW EXPECTATION) &  ALACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL SENTIMENT LED THE WEEK TO CLOSE LOWER BY 208 POINTS IN SENSEX AT 17213.70 & BY 90 POINTS IN NIFTY AT 5227.25 ON WEEKLY BASIS. IIP IMPROVED TO 2.4% YoY IN MAY 2012 AGAINST -0.90% LAST MONTH.


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE TRADING IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS DESPITE POORER THAN EXPECTED EARNINGS OUTLOOK FROM INFOSYS. INITIAL SIGNALS ON THE EARNINGS FRONT DEPICT THE MIXED SIGNS. THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT AS THERE IS CRUCIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THE OUTCOME OF WHICH WILL SHOW THE STRENGTH OF UPA GOVERNMENT. RESULTS OF COMPANIES LIKE RELIANCE, AXIS BANK, BAJAJ AUTO, HERO, ETC WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH. AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN PAST STILL THE VIEW OF BUY ON DIPS AND HOLD IS INTACT. IN THE CURRENT CORRECTION MARKETS COULD TOUCH 5160-5100 WHICH WILL BE THE GOOD LEVEL TO BUY.  STOCKS LIKE SBI, L&T, ITC, CASTROL, EXIDE, HDFC, BLUE STAR ETC ARE GOOD FOR PORTFOLIO FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.


TECHNICALLY THE DAILY CHART OF NIFTY IS SHOWING THAT IT HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 12% IN LAST ONE MONTH. NOW NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A RANGE OF 5160 AND 5400 IN THE SHORT TERM. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5400 AN UPWARD RALLY MIGHT CARRY IT TO 5520 AND THEN 5630 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER A BREACH OF 5160 WOULD INDICATE THE END OF CURRENT RALLY AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 5100-5040. HENCE THOSE HOLDING LONGS( IN TRADING A/C) COULD HOLD WITH A STOP-LOSS OF 5160.


OPTION PLAY FOR SPECULATORS:
BUY NIFTY CE5300 & CE5400 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5300 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5190 FOR THE TARGET OF 5350-5400
BUY NIFTY PE5200 & PE5100 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5190 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5300 FOR THE TARGET OF 5160-5100.


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY FOR 45-60 DAYS INVESTMENT:


1. SINTEX(66.65): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 72-76-78+++(In trading A/c can use 62 as stop-loss),
2. TATA STEEL(425.65): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 450-460+++(In trading A/c can use 410 as stop-loss),
3. INDIA GLYCOL(132.30): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 155-160+++,
4. DISHMAN PHARMA(63.15): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 80-90+++
5. MC-DOWELL(775.10): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 830-860+++. BUY ON EVERY DIPS.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 2ND JULY2012 TO 6TH JULY 2012

Last week as predicted market closed on the highest note on the optimism of various news inflow both domestically and globally.
Immediately after taking the charge Finance Ministry, PM gave positive vibration and indication on reforms, GAAR, economic policies     tuned the sentiments to optimistic. Globally the EU meeting concluded positively on euro-zone crisis  boosted the sentiments among the investors and reflected in the rise of Asian as well as Indian indices, which closed at rise of almost 9% in the month of June. Sensex closed at 17429.98 and Nifty at 5278.90.


Going forward the steps and action of the government shall be the key driver in improving confidence and conviction among the investors, as well as all attempts to increase the inflow of forex so as to contain the value of rupee shall be the focus. As said several times in past Indian capital market is likely to outperform in the near to mid term. Nifty is likely to touch 5400-5500++++. However the journey shall be bumpy and volatile. Individual stocks should be picked for gaining in this kind of market. July series may see Nifty in the range of 5400-5500++++. The broad range in the July series shall be 5150-5500.


Technically the Nifty has support around 5180 & resistance at 5340. Hence the no trading range of Nifty is 5180-5340.
Buy Nifty CE5300 & CE5400: if Nifty moves above 5340 keeping 5180 as stop-loss for the target of 5420-5500.
Buy Nifty PE5200 & PE5100: if Nifty cracks below 5180 keeping 5340 as stop-loss for the target of 5100-5000.


The following Stocks are as good for investment for 45-60 days:
1. Arvind Limited(73.75): Buy for the target of 85-90-110+++.
2. IFB (124.15):Buy for the target of 140-150++++.
3. Cera Sanitary (273.95):Buy for the target of    325++++.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.