MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 29TH OCT 2012 TO 2ND NOV 2012

Last week Indices in Indian Capital Market ended marginally lower as the sentiments were subdued due to lack of any major announcements from Government also F&O expiry also had an impact on the makrket performance for the week. Earnings from the corporate world also failed to give any clear direction. Sensex ended the week at 18625.34 & Nifty shut shop at 5664.30.

As said in previous postings Indian stock market remained in a range and same is likely to continue till the winter session of the parliament begins from Nov 22-Dec 12, 2012. The broad range of Nifty will be 5600-5850 with stock specific volatility. Almost 75% of the results declared of 27 companies in Nifty were better than expected results which signal in the favor of stock market. Apart from this RBI's monetary policy, monthly dispatch figure from cement and auto companies and other important data like inflation and export-import data should be closely watched. 
Its important to mark here that against the previous expectation of rate cut, it seems that keeping in view the high inflation, RBI may be conservative to follow the liberal view and MAY NOT cut the repo or reverse repo rate this time. It can only cut in CRR looking into the liquidity situation due to festive season. 
In essence the market will seek to be in a range with upward bias and stock specific moves. Stocks like ITC, CERA SANITARY, GLAXO CONSUMER, L&T, HUL, could be bought on any dip around 3%-5%...Hence keep watching them as they could give good rise in short to medium term.

Technically the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the range of 5600-5750 in the last three weeks. Analysts expect that this range could continue for another few days. However if Nifty is able to maintain above 5750, an upward rally may carry it to 5900 in the short term. On the other side breach of 5600 would indicate end of the current rally and in that case Nifty might test 5450. Hence short term long positions should be kept with a strict stop-loss of 5600......

FOR THIS WEEK: No trading range for the Nifty is 5600-5750. 
Go long in Nifty above 5750, keeping stop-loss of 5600 for the target of 5790-5850-5900
Go short in Nifty below 5600, keeping stop-loss of 5750 for the target of 5530-5450.

Note: Options of suitable strike prices could be selected to play on the movement on either side of the range 5600-5750, keeping the stop-loss of lower or upper limit as the case may be.

STOCKS WHICH COULD GIVE GOOD RISE IN DELIVERY HOLDING FOR 45-60 DAYS ARE:

1. ITC(285.95):Buy for the target of 300-320-350+++++. Add on dips(if any).

2. STERLITE(100.85):Buy for the target of 110-120-130+++++

3. LIC HOUSING FIN(251.50):Buy for the target of 265-280-300+++++ Add on dips(if any).

4. CANFIN HOMES(127.15):Buy for the target of 140-160-180-200+++++

5. HONEYWELL AUTO(2654.25):Buy for the target of 2740-2820-2960-3000+++++

6. L&T(1705.85):Buy for the target of 1750-1780-1820-1850-1900+++++ Add on dips(if any).

7. VISAKA IND(132.20):Buy for the target of 145-150-160+++++

8. GIC HOUSING FIN(122.25):Buy for the target of 140-160+++++

9. HEXAWARE(113.60):Buy for the target of 125-130+++++

10. JAY BHARAT MARUTI(61.10):Buy for the target of 68-72-78+++++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 15TH OCT 2012 TO 19TH OCT 2012

Last week Indian Stock Market were bearish due to weak global cues and lower then expected results from Infosys led the fall on the last day of the week. Sensex closed at 18675.18 and Nifty at 5676.05 closing lower around 1.3% over the previous week. 

Going forward, its expected that market will trade in a range of 5600-5850 till the earning season and before the winter session of the Indian parliament scheduled to start from early November 2012. Now its important to note that if the measures taken by the Indian cabinet taken on the reforms are passed by the parliament, lot of structural changes may happen which may let the Indian rupee (INR) to appreciate sharply and Indian stock markets may rally higher. In such a situation we might see new to in indices. However its important to note that role of opposition has been infringing and producing hurdles in the normal conduct of affairs of Parliament. Hence that's the only concern worrisome. Results of companies like Reliance, ITC, TCS etc., and inflation data on 15th October, 2012 has to be watched very keenly. Hence one should buy on every dip and add on every major fall. Stocks like GSK CONSUMER, RALLIS, BATA, TRENT, DELTA CORP, EXIDE, ETC 

Nifty has given a smart bullish rally of almost 11.50% (from 5215 to 5835) in a time span of just one month. Now Nifty is likely to move in a range of 5600 and 5850 in the short term.
If Nifty is able to sustain above 5850(of course, which will be if some positive signals are received from domestic front regarding political and economic stability) upward rally might continue till 5940 in the short term however if Nifty breaches below 5610 would indicate the end of the current rally and in that case Nifty might test to 5450 also (of course, which will be if some negative signals are received from domestic front regarding political and economic stability). Hence all long positions of a trader should be guarded with strict stop-loss of 5600.

FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading Zone is 5610-5730.
Go long in Indices above 5730 with a stop-loss of  5610 for the target of 5790-5850.
Go short in Indices below 5610 with a stop-loss of 5730 for the target of 5530-5450.

STOCKS TO BUY IN DELIVERY FOR PERIOD OF 45-60 DAYS:

1. UNITED BANK OF INDIA(67.80): Buy for the target of 72-76-82++++ without any stop-loss. Add on dips.

2. DIVIS LAB(1139.85): Buy for the target of 1180-1220-1300+++ without any stop-loss. Add on dips.

3. SAINT GOBAIN(38.80): Buy for the target of 44-48-52-58++++without any stop-loss. Add on dips. Note there is de-listing buzz once again. Hence buy buy buy+++++++++(Must Buy)

4. THOMAS COOK(60.85): Buy for the target of 66-72-80-90-100-110 without any stop-loss. Add on dips.Note there is de-listing buzz once again. Hence buy buy buy+++++++++(Must Buy)

5.  GLAXOCON(2999.90): Buy for the target of  3080-3140-3220-3350-3480-3550-3600+++++ without any stop-loss. Add on dips. ( Safe buy for conservative investors). Next year target is 5200+++++. Must buy.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 8TH OCT 2012 TO 12TH OCT 2012

Indian equities ended the week on a positive note with Sensex and Nifty gained nearly 1%. During the week Sensex reached above 19000 mark for the first time since July 2011 and Nifty made high of 5807 which is the highest in last 17 months, on the back of reform process, coupled with rupee appreciation  and huge flow of funds by FIIs. Sensex closed at 18938.46 and NIfty shut shop at 5746.95

As expected earlier Indian Stock Market continued the rally with renewed energy after the reform process started by the government. 
HOWEVER HEREON MARKET MAY TRADE IN A RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 5900-5600 TILL THE WINTER SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT STARTS, WHICH IS SCHEDULED IN 1st WEEK OF NOVEMBER 2012.
Its important to note that if the steps taken by the Indian Cabinet on the reforms are passed by the parliament, a lot of structural changes may happen which may let the Indian Rupee (INR) to appreciate and consequently Indian Stock Market might rally higher above 5900. The rally then continue to new highs and it might take Nifty to 6500+++ levels or even more, but the essential condition for this is same--Parliament should ratify the decisions of cabinet. However it doesn't seems easy and it might lead to some political chaos and instability  which markets may not like. Hence its very very crucial to watch closely the events( like IIP data and Infosys result in this week) and development along with the RBI meet on credit policy........ till then keep trading in the range of 5900-5600 with stock specific approach. Stocks like Crompton Greaves, Alembic Pharma, Bata etc..

Technically , In a small period of a month Nifty has given a sharp rise of almost 11.50% (i.e., from 5212 to 5815) and now its expected that the rally will continue till 5870 & 5940. If Nifty is able to sustain above 5940(chances of which are dim on fundamental terms) then this upward rally might continue to 6200 levels, however on the other hand if Nifty breaches to take support at 5620 would indicate the end of the current rally and in that case Nifty may test 5450 also.... Hence all trading position on the Long side should be kept with a strict stop-loss of 5600.

FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading Zone for Nifty is 5700-5820

Go Long in Nifty only above 5820 keeping stop-loss of 5700 for the target of 5870 & 5940.

Go Short in Nifty only below 5700 keeping stop-loss of 5820 for the target of 5620 & 5550.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD IN DELIVERY TO BUY AT C.M.P AND ADD ON DIPS (HOLDING TIME 45-60 DAYS):

1. LOVABLE LINGERIE(376.05): Buy for the target of    420-440-500++++++

2. FEDERAL BANK(457.10): Buy for the target of  470-490-520++++++

3. CCL PRODUCT(309.95): Buy for the target of 340-380++++++

4. TIMKEN INDIA(210.40): Buy for the target of 240-280-320++++++

5.  STERLING HOLIDAY RES(83.35): Buy for the target of 90-96-105-120++++++

6. DELTA CORP(71.00): Buy for the target of 74-78-82-90-105-120++++++

7. CROMPTON GREAVES(139.55): Buy for the target of 145-152-160++++++

8. MANGLORE CHEM (46.05): Buy for the target of 50-56-65++++++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.