MARKET VIEW FOR 30th JUNE 2011-EXPIRY SPECIAL

INDIAN MARKET TRADED POSITIVELY THOUGH OUT THE DAY ON BACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES AND IT CLOSED ALMOST NEAR TO THE HIGH. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5600 AND SENSEX AT 18693,UP 201 POINT.MARKET BREADTH WAS STRONG 876 ADVANCES AGAINST 418 DECLINES SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RALLY IS NOT MERELY A SHORT COVERING RALLY OR NARROW RALLY.


AS SAID EARLIER NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5600.HOWEVER THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MARKET SHALL BE 5570-5655.AS THE BIAS FOR THE MARKET IS POSITIVE & BULLISH SHORTING IS NOT ADVISED,HOWEVER NIFTY PUTS OF JULY SERIES(PE5400,PE5500,PE5600) SHOULD BE ACCUMULATED,AS ADVISING FOR LAST 5 DAYS,THAT WILL GIVE OOD RETURN, AS & WHEN THE MARKET DIPS.


THE DOWN SIDE RISK NOW SEEMS TO BE LIMITED(MAY BE 5350-5400 A GOOD SUPPORT),AS ALL MAJOR NEWS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AND THERE REMAINS CLARITY ON CERTAIN ISSUES LIKE MONSOON, RATE HIKES, GOVERNMENT ROLE IN CHECKING FISCAL DEFICIT, CONTRLLOING INFLATION AND ACTION IN REFORMS BECOMING EVIDENT.


I.T. STOCKS MAY START MOVING AFTER THE JUNE SERIES BY NEXT 15 DAYS.HENCE BUY I.T. STOCKS LIKE INFOSYS, TCS, WIPRO ON EVERY FALL.


BUY FOLOWING STOCKS:


PATNI: Buy in delivery at cmp 330. Hold for some up side of 5%-10% or more very soon.


SRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE: Buy in delivery at cmp 601 for some decent up side in days to come.


WHAT ANALYSTS SAY NOW??? EVERY ONE OF YOU MUST BE FAMILIAR OF WHAT THE ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR LAST FEW DAYS.SOME SAID THAT THE SHORT COVERING RALLY TO 5400,SOME TO 5500 SOME SAY ITS SURPRISING THAT NIFTY HAS GAINED 400 POINTS IN 5 DAYS, SOME STILL BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT UP-MOVE IS FALLACIOUS AND MERELY DUE TO EXTREME PESSIMISM AND SHORT POSITIONS, SOME SAY NOW 5600-5650 IS THE LIMIT, SOME STILL SAY THAT POST JUNE SETTLEMENT MARKETS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN AND NOW NIFTY WILL BREAK DOWN BELOW 5200 NOTHING HAS CHANGED FUNDAMENTALLY, SOME SAY THAT NOW 5200 WILL HOLD AND NIFTY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5350-5400 RANGE. THIS IS ALL MESS WHICH IS DISTURBING A COMMON MAN,A SIMPLE INVESTOR AND A INNOCENT TRADER. MANIPULATIONS IN NEWS, PRESENTATION OF WRONG IDEA BY MARKET MANIPULATORS AND OPERATORS,ETC HAVE LED TO ULTIMATE CONFUSION IN THE MARKET AND TO ITS PARTICIPANTS.EVERY NEXT PERSON ASKS THE SAME OLD QUESTION" WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING?" AND THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS "NO BODY KNOWS?"


SO WHAT'S THE SOLUTION TO THIS PERPETUAL PROBLEM?????


STRICTLY FOLLOW THE FOLLOWING APPROACH:


1.Don't stick to follow the market.Forget to track/guess or analyse the market perfectly, no body can!!!!! then how can you.


2.Try to get the pulse of market and follow the direction.It should be made clear that we are in India, where there is growth. Markets will reflect the growth ultimately, after all jitters and aberrational moves.This means that it will go down and discount every bad news and then start moving up when the sentiment is improved.But unfortunately this makes us very fearful and shaky and we stop buying when script goes lower & lower.One should buy more when script moves downwards, forget all other rules.


3.Never buy any thing for short term. This is very important. Never never never, buy for just 5 days,10days,15days,1month. At least have vision of 3months or more. The simple reason is this that there are quarterly results, change in global condition, change in Govt policy and market anticipation, etc, etc, so that gives much cushion to your investment. Playing for short term is like a gambling and killing of health, wealth and wisdom. So think for little longer than just short term trade.


4 Pick the Stock, which has potential and its has not performed so far. This is very tough and you can take advise of your investment advisor,consultant or any good analyst or website, where you can get good stuff.(My blog may help you a little in this regard)


5.Last but not least, always 'Buy' or 'Sell'(for trading purpose) in small quantities and in staggered manner or phased manner.Never jump and buy in huge quantity in excitement or sell all in panic. Just start buying in small quantity and add more when it comes down 2%-3% then 5%-7% then 10%-12% and so on.Then similarly sell in parts when you are up 2%-3%,then 5%-7% in similar fashion. This approach will always give you profit irrespective of the market. Try this in shares like, SAIL,ITC, HUL,NTPC etc.,you will 99% gain & never loose any money in trading.


Wish You all Happy Investing,Profitable Trading and Lucky Speculation.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 29th JUNE 2011

NIFTY,AFTER OPENING ON A POSITIVE NOTE, IT ROSE TO THE INTRA-DAY HIGH 5558.30 AND THEN IT FELL TO MAKE A LOW OF 5496.35 AND CLOSED AT 5545.30 NET UP18.70 POINTS.DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY NIFTY TRADED IN THE BAND OF 5495-5560. THIS SHOW THAT AFTER THE SHARP RISE IN THE NIFTY MARKET IS NOW CONSOLIDATING IN THE RANGE AND THE RANGE NOW SHALL BE 5520-5600.INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TRADE IN THE ABOVE RANGE TILL ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREECE BAILOUT IS EVIDENT. THE GREEK GOVERNMENT IS EXPECTED TO FACE VOTES TODAY,29TH JUNE ON THE AUSTERITY MEASURES.NIFTY MAY FACE STRONG RESISTANCE AT 5576, WHICH IS 200-EMA.IF NIFTY FALLS BELOW 5490 THEN THERE WILL BE BEARISH BREAK-OUT,ELSE MARKET MAY CONTINUE TO MARCH AHEAD TOWARDS 200-EMA.


NIFTY JUNE SERIES SETTLEMENT MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT 5550-5600++. THERE ARE MORE CHANCES THAT IT MAY BE ABOVE 5600.ITS NOT ADVISABLE TO SHORT THE MARKET AT THIS POINT OF TIME.HENCE BUY PUTS(PE) OR ELSE SIT ASIDE FROM THE MARKET.


BUY PEs WHEN NIFTY REACHES 5600++ ZONE,AS ITS VERY HARD RESISTANCE AND NIFTY MAY HOVER AROUND THIS FOR SOME MORE TIME. IF THERE IS IS SHOCKING FROM GREECE, MARKETS WILL DROP HERE.




SO WAIT & WATCH AND LET THE CLSUD BE CLEAR ..........THEN ACT.


Note: If any member wishes to know about the trade, delivery,speculation position should contact on messenger at "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in".

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 28TH JUNE 2011

MARKET MARCHED UP ABOVE RESISTANCE LEVEL OF 5620 AND CLOSED ABOVE IT. NOW THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5500 TO 5550. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5500 THEN 5480 AND THEN 5458 WILL BE THE SUPPORT AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE RESISTANCE SHALL BE 5570 AND THEN 5608.


IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKET AS MARKET MIGHT BE VOLATILE AND BOTH LONG AND SHORTS WILL BE TRAPPED.IF MARKET MOVES HIGHER PROFIT SHOULD BE BOOKED IN NIFTY AND CALLS AND STOCKS AND SIT ASIDE. IT DOESN'T MEANS THAT THERE IS A SHORTING OPPORTUNITY. AGGRESSIVE TRADERS MAY BUY PE5500 FOR PROFIT AT THE END OF THE DAY.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKET WILL BE WEAK IN THE SECOND HALF AND WILL CLOSE IN RED(NEGATIVE). CLOSING BELOW 5500 MAY BE SEEN TODAY. BUYING PE5500(JULY) SERIES MAY GIVE PROFITS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 27TH JUNE 2011 TO 1ST JULY 2011

EVERY TRADER AND MARKET PARTICIPANT WAS SURPRISED BY THE STRONG GAINS IN INDICES ON FRIDAY,WHERE SENSEX & NIFTY GAINED MORE THAN 500 & 150 POINTS RESPECTIVELY.THE SHORT TERM DOWN TREND IS REVERSED AS THE MARKET HAS CLOSED ABOVE ITS 20 DMA,ALSO ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IN THE PAST WEEK NIFTY INDICES HAVE FORMED HIGHER BOTTOM (NIFTY 5195 Vs 5177 & SENSEX 17314 Vs 17295). HOWEVER IT IS SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE THAT NOTHING HAS CHANCED FUNDAMENTALLY WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED FOR THIS REVERSAL,HENCE IT SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UP MOVE IS CORRECTIVE RALLY WHICH COULD LAST 5520-5600.


AS EXPLAINED EARLIER SEVERAL TIMES THAT MARKET ANTICIPATES THE EVENTS,EARNINGS,DATA ETC 6 MONTHS PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL,THERE COULD BE REVERSAL FROM THE BOTTOM BELOW 5200,WHICH WILL BE CONFIRMED IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5650 WITH HUGE VOLUMES AND BUYING BY FIIs.


SINCE THERE REMAINS THE CONFIRMATION ON THE FACTORS LIKE, MONSOON,INFLATION,INTEREST RATE,CRUDE & COMMODITY PRICES IN THE SHORT TERM, ITS DOUBTFUL THAT CURRENT UP MOVE WILL LAST ABOVE 5650.


FOR OPTION PLAYERS/SPECULATORS: KEEPING 5650 AS STOP LOSS BUYING PUTS OF JULY SERIES, PE5500,PE5400,PE5300 OR SHORTING NIFTY (JULY) AS & WHEN IT APPROACHES NEAR 5520-5600 ZONE WILL BE THE BEST PLAY FOR SPECULATORS,SHORT TERM NIFTY TRADERS AND OPTION PLAYERS.


BUY SAIL CE140(JULY)@3.5. STOCK WILL BE PROFITABLE WHEN MOVE ABOVE 143.50 IN JULY. TARGET-148++


ASIAN PAINT FUTURE(JULY) @2985 STOP-LOSS 2896 TARGET 3150.


FOR INVESTORS:LONG TO MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS:,should never attempt to time the market and wait for correction and fall to start buy, rather they should regularly keep on investing some amount in good quality front-line and mid-cap stocks. RELIANCE IND, SBI, ICICIBANK, HDFC BANK,MARUTI,TATA MOTORS,CIPLA,LUPIN,TATASTEEL,etc are the evergreen stocks to invest in.


FOR SHORT TERM TRADERS:FOLLOWING STOCKS WILL GIVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRADE IN DELIVERY WITH 2-3 MONTHS VIEW:


GRAPHITE(89) T-100-110++


ITHL(177) T-210-220++


PRAJ(72) T-80-90++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 24th JUNE 2011

AS SAID THAT MARKETS WILL UNDER PERFORM AND SHALL BE WEAK BETWEEN 23RD JUNE TO 27TH JUNE,THE BEARISH STANCE IS STILL MAINTAINED,HOWEVER YESTERDAY MARKET WERE RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL CUES,POOR INFLATION FIGURES, INCHED UP GRADUALLY WITH INCREASED VOLATILITY AND FRONT LINE STOCKS LIKE RELIANCE,ITC, LEVER ETC GAINED WHICH PUSHED NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5320.


NOW TILL THE JUNE SERIES MARKETS RANGE SHALL BE 5200 IN THE DOWNSIDE AND 5400 ON THE UPPER SIDE. OPTION DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE IS CALL UNWINDING AT CE5200,CE5300,CE5400 AND PUT WRITING AT PE5200,PE5300,PE5400. WHAT DOES IT INDICATE. IT SHOWS THAT MARKET IS SHOWING A UP MOVE AT LEAST TO 5400 LEVELS TILL EXPIRY.JUNE F&O EXPIRY SHALL TAKE PLACE AT/ABOVE 5400.KEEPING THIS PICTURE IN MIND IT SEEMS THAT MARKETS WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP, EVEN IF THERE IS ANY FALL OR BLIP, WHICH SHOULD BE USED TO GO LONG IN NIFTY AND BUY NIFTY CALL,CE5300 AVAILABLE AT Rs.56, NOW IF MARKET DIPS TO ANY LEVEL AROUND 5200,IT SHOULD BE USED TO BUY CE5200 ALSO.


TO SUMMARIES:
IF MARKET OPENS WEAK, THOSE HOLDING PUTS SHOULD SELL PUTS AND BUY CALLS OF 5300 OR 5200, AS NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE AT 5400.


IF MARKET OPENS STRONG AND MOVES HIGH AND HIGH,KEEP ON SELLING CE5400,CE5500 AS NIFTY MAY NOT SETTLE ABOVE5400. THOSE WHO HAVE HOLDING CAPACITY SHOULD HOLD THE OPTION WRITING IN THE ABOVE CALLS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: THERE COULD BE LARGE ONE SIDE MOVEMENT IN NIFTY( EITHER BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN)AFTER 1ST JULY SOLAR ECLIPSE.THERE ARE80% CHANCES OF BREAKDOWN TO 5000 LEVELS SOON. THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING SHORT TERM DELIVERY BUYING.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 23RD JUNE 2011

AS SAID EARLIER THAT MARKETS ARE GOING NO WHERE AND ITS NOT FAVORABLE TO TRADE TILL NIFTY COMPLETES ITS DOWN SWING. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT NIFTY SHALL BREAK 5200 LEVEL SOON TO TOUCH 5100-5000-4950.


FACTORS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES, INFLATION,INTEREST RATES,MONSOON,CRUDE OIL ETC ALONG WITH SOME OTHER GLOBAL & LOCAL REASONS. ALL THESE FAVOR THE BEARS FOR THE TIME BEING.CORRECTIVE RALLIES,SHORT COVERING,ETC SHALL BE THE PART OF THE CURRENT DOWN SWING.


STOCKS WILL GO MUCH LOWER THAN THE C.M.P EVEN IF THE NIFTY FALLS LESSER.

NEXT 3 DAYS FROM THURSDAY-TO MONDAY WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR THE MARKETS.THERE WILL BE SELL-OFF WHICH MAY LEAD  NIFTY TO BELOW 5200, MAY BE TO 5100-5000.


HENCE BUY PE 5300, PE5400 FOR HOLDING TILL TUESDAY 28TH JUNE 2011. ALSO BUY CE5400, CE5200 FOR THE BOUNCE BACK PLAY.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 22ND JUNE 2011

ITS SURPRISING EVERY ONE THAT WHEN MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MARKETS WERE STABLE,WHY THERE IS A STORM OF VOLATILITY IN INDIAN MARKETS.AFTER A SMART PULL BACK RALLY IN EARLY SESSION MARKET WITNESSED A HEAVY SELL-OFF CREATING PRESSURE ON NIFTY & SENSEX SETTLED WITH SMALL GAINS.


WHILE THERE WAS REALITY CHECK IN ORCHID & SKUMAR MARKET ALSO SAW GAINS IN STOCKS LIKE TCS, IDFC & SUNPHARMA ENDED IN GREEN.


MARKETS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BULLISH TODAY, WITH HUGE VOLATILITY IN A RANGE OF 5250 TO 5350.BIAS OF THE MARKET WILL BE UP AS IT IS OVER SOLD.


STRATEGY: BUY STRADDLE OF  NIFTY CE5300/PE5300 & CE5400/PE5400 FOR TRADE.


NO SHARES HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDED FOR TODAY.


THOSE INTERESTED MAY JOIN A CHAT AFTER 12.30 PM ON YAHOO ID: "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in"

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 21ST JUNE 2011

INDIAN MARKETS MARKED THE HIGH DRAMA ON THE CONFUSION REGARDING THE INDO-MAURITIUS TAX TREATY. EVEN AFTER THE CLARIFICATION FROM THE GOVERNMENT MARKET CLOSED WITH A LOSS OF ALMOST 2%.BSE CLOSED AT 17506.63(DOWN 363.90)& NIFTY CLOSED AT 5257.90(DOWN 108.50).THIS PANIC BUTTON WAS TRIGGERED THE MARGIN CALL AND AT TIME THERE WAS A COMPLETE PANIC AMONG TRADERS AND PARTICIPANTS.MOST OF THE ANALYSTS ARE BEARISH IN THE MARKET AND THERE EXISTS PESSIMISM AND UNCERTAINTY ON VARIOUS DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL FACTORS.

AS SAID YESTERDAY,MARKETS MAY FIND SUPPORT BELOW NIFTY 5300 THE OVERSOLD MARKETS WILL SEE BOUNCE BACK & RECOVERY WITH BANKS WHICH SEEM TO BE RESILIENT TO THE OVERALL SENTIMENTS. 

RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TODAY IS 5230-5350(SPOT LEVELS).IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW THIS RANGE THEN NIFTY WILL FIND SUPPORT AT 5196 AND THEN AT 5177 ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE THE RANGE THEN 5390-5410 SHALL BE RESISTANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT 5200 SHALL NOT BROKEN VERY EASILY AND NIFTY SHALL BE IN NEW RANGE OF 5200-5400.

IMPORTANT NOTE:THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE ANALYSTS THAT MARKETS WILL LOOM UNDER THE GLOBAL & DOMESTIC UNCERTAINTIES,THERE REMAINS THE RISK OF BREAKDOWN. SENSEX AND NIFTY MAY BREAK BELOW 5000 AND FINALLY MOVE TOWARDS 4600. THIS MAY HAPPEN ANY TIME. HENCE TO TRADE AT THIS TIME SHALL RESULT IN LOSSES DUE TO VOLATILITY.JULY -AUGUST-SEPTEMBER SHALL WITNESS A SOUTH WARD JOURNEY IN INDICES, IF THERE IS POOR MONSOON, RISING INFLATION, HIKES IN INTEREST RATE BY RBI, CRACK DOWN IN U.S AND EUROPE, FAILURE OF GREECE AND OTHER COUNTRIES,SHARP RISE IN CRUDE OIL, AND POOR Q2 NUMBERS BY CORPORATE. 

STRATEGY FOR THE OPTION PLAYERS: BUY CE5200 & CE5300 FOR 3-5 DAYS HOLDING.NIFTY MAY BOUNCE BACK TO 5400 LEVELS SOON,BEFORE THEY START DROPPING AGAIN.

ASTROLOGICALLY:MARKETS WILL RECOVER,ANY TIME FROM TUESDAY AND AFTERWARDS.THE NEXT BIG JOLT OR DOWN LEG IN THE MARKETS WILL BE SEEN AFTER SOLAR ECLIPSE ON 1ST JULY.NIFTY WILL TANK BELOW 5000 & SENSEX BELOW 17000.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 20TH JUNE 2011 TO 24TH JUNE 2011

THE WEEK GONE BY AFTER THE RISING INFLATION DATA, RATE HIKE BY RBI AND GLOOMY PERSPECTIVE BY INVESTMENT ANALYSTS NIFTY ENDED AT 5366.40 AND SENSEX AT 17870.53 WITH LOW VOLUMES AROUND 1.20 LAKH CRORE.
IMF ON FRIDAY PROJECTED THAT THE INDIAN ECONOMY WILL EXPAND @8.2% IN 2011 WHICH WAS ALSO MADE EARLIER IN APRIL 2011,WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE EXPANSION(10.4%) IN THE LAST YEAR 2010.THE PROJECTION OF IMF CAME AT THE TIME WHEN INDIAN ECONOMY IS GRAPPLING WITH UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH INFLATION THAT THREATENS TO DERAIL ITS GROWTH STORY.INFLATION CROSSED THE 9% MARK IN MAY, WHICH HAS DIM CHANCES TO COOL-OFF IN NEAR FUTURE. IMF MAINTAINS ITS VIEW OF APRIL 2011,THAT IT EXPECTS INDIA TO EXPAND BY 8.2% & 7.8% BY 2011 & 2012 RESPECTIVELY. IT EXPRESSED THAT TIGHT MONETARY POLICY REGIME BY THE RBI TO TACKLE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HURT ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH. ALSO FINANCE MINISTER ON FRIDAY SAID THAT "THE MONETARY POLICY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TIGHTENED...... MONETARY MEASURES MAY END UP MODERATING THE GROWTH IF THEY HAVE TO BE PERSISTED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME". THE IMF REPORT ALSO CAUTIONED INDIA ON ACCOUNT OF HIGH FISCAL DEFICIT CAUSED BY SPENDING OVERRUNS IN SUBSIDIES.THE COUNTRY'S FISCAL DEFICIT IS PEGGED AT 4.6% OF THE GDP FOR THE FISCAL 2011-12 AND STRESSED THAT FISCAL CONSOLIDATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE FASTER SPACE IN SOME EMERGING MARKETS, LIKE INDIA.


NOW,HOW THIS IS GOING TO IMPACT????: IN VIEW OF CONSOLIDATING THE FISCAL DEFICIT THE SUBSIDIES AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING HAS TO BE CUT.THIS COULD BE DONE ONLY AFTER HIKING THE PETROL,DIESEL,KEROSENE,UREA, ETC., PRICES, WHICH MAY AGAIN LEAD TO HIGH TRANSPORTATION AND MANUFACTURING COST, WHICH LEADS TO COST PUSH INFLATION.SINCE THE SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMY, WHICH IS BROADLY DEPENDENT ON THE AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT,WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON MONSOON & INETERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES. IF THE MONSOON IS GOOD SUPPLY WILL INCREASE AND MEET THE DEMAND SUPPLY GAP. ALSO THE COOLING OF THE GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES(mainly the crude & base metals),WILL LEAD TO THE COOLING-OFF THE DOMESTIC PRICES.THIS WILL LEAD IN MARGIN EXPANSION OF THE COMPANIES. HENCE GOOD MONSOON IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR ECONOMY.


WHAT GOVERNMENT & RBI HAS BEEN DOING SO FAR????: FOR LAST 9 MONTHS OUR GOVERNMENT HAS MADE NO EFFECTIVE EFFORT OR INITIATIVE TO EXPAND THE SUPPLY OF COMMODITIES BY IN TIME APPROACH TO THE GROWING DEMAND IN THE ECONOMY RATHER GOVERNMENT VIA RBI HAS ATTEMPTED TO CONTROL THE MONEY SUPPLY IN THE ECONOMY, WHICH WILL CHECK THE RISING DEMAND. THIS IS VERY INJURIOUS TO THE ECONOMY. WHEN THE DEMAND IS CONTROLLED ARTIFICIALLY THAT HAS VERY DANGEROUS REPERCUSSIONS AND LEADS TO VICIOUS CYCLE OF DEFLATION OR STAGFLATION. HERE WITHOUT ANY HEED TO THE GROWTH GOVERNMENT HAS DELIBERATELY ATTEMPTED TO RAISE THE INTEREST RATE TO CURB DEMAND, FOR POLITICAL REASONS LIKE ELECTIONS, PUBLIC ANTIPATHY,ETC.


NOW AFTER THE REGULAR MONETARY TIGHTENING THE CORPORATE MARGINS HAVE STARTED SHRINKING. SEE THE RESULTS OF REALITY AND AUTO COMPANIES. THEY ARE WITNESSING THE WORST DEMAND, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE PRICES IF THE SHARES OF THE COMPANIES, WHERE VERY LOW GROWTH IS SEEN FOR NEXT 4-8 QUARTERS.No one wants/likes to put his money with the Reality and Auto companies.


WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW IN MARKET?????: AS ALREADY SAID MARKETS FORESEE AND ANTICIPATE THE HAPPENINGS/FUTURE EARNINGS AND EVENTS BY SIX MONTHS.MARKET NOW IS ANTICIPATING THAT INFLATION SHALL START COOLING-OFF BY SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER,BUT IT DEPENDS LARGELY ON MONSOON,HENCE MONSOON SHALL MAKE OR DESTROY THE PROSPECTS.HENCE IF BY NEXT 45 DAYS(JULY- MID AUGUST) THE MONSOON PROVES TO BE GOOD THEN THE MARKETS WILL STABLISE FORM INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM(AROUND 5250-5280) AND START INCHING UP(At least the fall will arrest).


HENCE IT COULD BE CONCLUDED THAT MARKETS ARE NOT GOING TO GO BELOW 5300, DECISIVELY IN HURRY.IT WILL WAIT,WATCH,OBSERVE AND ANTICIPATE BY NEXT 10-12 DAYS,OR AT LEAST TILL THIS SETTLEMENT(30TH JUNE).


IF THERE IS GOOD DEVELOPMENT IN MONSOON & COOL-OFF IN CRUDE PRICES.THEN MARKET SHALL CONSOLIDATE IN THE RANGE OF 5280-5300 TO 5450-5500. KEEPING THIS LOGIC IN MIND, ONE SHOULD CLOSE/COVER ALL THE SHORT POSITIONS(IF ANY) NEAR 5300 AND TRY TO GO LONG IN NIFTY OPTIONS OF JUNE SERIES. ALSO THERE IS HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN JUNE SERIES, WHICH WILL BE COVERED ANY TIME BEFORE SETTLEMENT.


AS PER THE OPTION DATA STUDY MARKETS SHALL SETTLE ABOVE 5400-5450.HENCE FROM THIS POINT OF VIEW ALSO, BUYING NIFTY OPTIONS(LIKE CE5300 & CE5400) WILL MAY BRING SOME PROFITS.




ASTROLOGICALLY: IN THIS WEEK MARKETS SHOULD STOP FALLING ANY TIME AFTER MID-DAY OF TUESDAY, 21ST JUNE 2011. IF NIFTY GOES BELOW 5300 BY TUESDAY AND YOU ARE SHORT IN THE MARKET THEN YOU SHOULD CLOSE/COVER YOUR SHORT POSITION IN PROFIT. SOME BOUNCE AFTER TUESDAY CAN NOT BE RULED-OUT. THERE ARE 20% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG.


 ANY TIME AFTER THE SOLAR ECLIPSE ON JULY 1ST, INDIAN MARKETS SHALL WITNESS A SHARP SELL-OFF, WHICH MAY LEAD NIFTY TO TEST BELOW 5200. 


NOTE: A NEW LIST OF SHARES WILL BE UPDATED HERE ON TUESDAY, 21ST JUNE MARKET VIEW.


ELSE THOSE WHO WISH COULD START PURCHSE IN SHARES WHICH HAVE BEEN MENTIONED EARLIER SEVERAL TIMES, IF THEY FIND NIFTY AROUND 5300.


GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING TO ALL THE READERS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 17TH JUNE 2011

AS EXPECTED RBI HIKED REPO & REVERSE REPO BY 25bps AND WAS HAWKISH IN POLICY STATEMENT, SHOWING THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR HIKES IN RATE FROM 50bps TO 75bps IN THIS FISCAL. GLOBAL WEAKNESS AND RBI RATE HIKE MADE THE INDICES SLIP BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS OF 5400 IN NIFTY AND 18000 IN SENSEX. NIFTY ENDED AT 5396.75, DOWN 50.75 POINTS AND SENSEX ENDED AT 17985.88, DOWN 146.36 POINTS.


ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT MARKETS COULD SLIP MAXIMUM OF 5% TO 7% FROM CURRENT LEVELS HOWEVER GOOD MONSOON, FALLING COMMODITY PRICES, SOME POLICY ACTION BY GOVERNMENT AND EASING OF INFLATION WILL ATTRACT HUGE MONEY TO BE INVESTED IN INDIAN MARKETS,AS STILL INDIA'S GROWTH STORY IS INTACT OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. MARKET COULD TAKE SUPPORT AT 5370-5330 FOR THE TIME BEING AND IF THE MONSOON,INFLATION AND CRUDE OIL DATA ARE SUPPORTIVE INDIAN MARKETS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH,NEGLECTING THE MACRO ECONOMIC CHALLENGES MARKET MAY HEAD HIGHER, PURELY ON FUNDAMENTALS.


NOW WHAT A COMMON MAN-TRADER/INVESTOR SHOULD DO AT THIS POINT OF JUNCTURE????


THE BEST STRATEGY:


1.START BUYING IN QUALITY MIDCAP STOCKS,WHICH HAVE EITHER STRONG FUNDAMENTALS OR SOME STORY BEHIND IT. I HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED SEVERAL STOCKS IN THE PAST(Please search for the same in previous postings)


2.IF YOU HAVE 100 RUPEES TO INVEST.TAKE 30 FOR TRADING AND 70 FOR INVESTING.OUT OF 70 INVEST 30 NOW AND REST 40 IF THE MARKET COME DOWN TO 5200 LEVELS


3.LOOK FOR FOLLOWING SHARES:


PATNI,
INGERSOLL RAND,
SKUMAR NATIONWIDE,
ORCHID,
PIRAMAL GLASS,
SAINT GOBAIN,
KTK BANK,
KENNAMETAL


AND MANY MORE.....




FOR TODAY 17TH JUNE 2011: NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT TO WEAK HAVING SUPPORT AT 5370 & 5330. NO LONG POSITION SHOULD BE HELD BELOW 5330. ON THE HIGHER SIDE NIFTY WILL GET RESISTANCE AT 5450-5500.


BUY CE5400 IF NIFTY OPENS NEAR SUPPORT OR ON ANY SLIP TO SUPPORTS WITH SL OF 5330. THOSE HOLDING PUTS, PE5600, PE5500 & PE5400 SHOULD BOOK PROFITS.


NOTE IN JUNE MONTH: NIFTY MAY SETTLE AT 5450. 


For any doubts,queries and clarification please be on line at yahoo messenger. Id: vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

CREDIT POLICY BY RBI & MARKET VIEW FOR 16TH JUNE 2011

AS EXPECTED THE MARKET STARTED TO SHOW THE SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AHEAD OF CREDIT POLICY & WEAK GLOBAL CUES.

NOW TODAY IS THE TREND DECIDING DAY, MARKET HAS PRICED IN 25bps HIKE IN REPO & REVERSE REPO RATE, ANY THING TO THIS EFFECT WILL HAVE NO MAJOR BEARING ON THE MARKETS AND THE RANGE BOUND TRADE WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER ANY THING MORE THAN THAT(i.e., 50bps HIKE,OR HIKE IN CRR OR A HAWKISH KIND OF LANGUAGE AND INABILITY TO CONTROL INFLATION) WILL CREATE PANIC IN THE MARKET AND NIFTY MAY TAKE TOLL BELOW 5350-5300.ELSE NIFTY MAY RECOVER AFTER THE LOSSES, BEFORE OR ON ANNOUNCEMENT OF CREDIT POLICY. IF THE POLICY IS IN EXPECTED LINES THEN MARKET WILL TAKE GLOBAL CUES AND REACT TO IT.AMERICA CLOSED EXTREMELY WEAK IS ALSO BAD FOR INDIAN MARKETS BROADLY.ON THE HIGHER SIDE 5550-5600 WILL REMAIN HE RESISTANCE.

AS THE LONG TERM AND INTERMEDIATE TREND IS DOWN MAKETS SHOULD TECHNICALLY GO LOWER & LOWER FROM HERE, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE KEPT IN THE MIND THAT ONE CAN NEVER CATCH THE BOTTOM.MARKET AT ANY TIME MAY GET BUYING AND TECHNICALS WILL FAIL TO PROVE THAT. HENCE ALL THE READERS ARE SUGGESTED TO KEEP ON BUYING THE QUALITY STOCKS ON ANY DEEP CUT AND FALL IN A PHASED MANNER OR STAGGERED BUYING COULD BE DONE ON QUALITY MIDCAP STOCKS.

ASTROLOGICALLY THERE WILL BE A FALL IN INDICES IN GLOBAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS FROM THE DAY OF LUNAR ECLIPSE(15TH JUNE 2011), WHICH MAY CONTINUE TILL 1ST JULY 2011 WITH SOME SHARP SHORT COVERNGS AND SPIKES.THEREAFTER CONSOIDATING IN JULY THERE WILL BE A SHORT TERM SHARP RALLY FROM AUGUST 2011

FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE LOOKED FOR BUYING FOR 3-4 MONTHS PROSPECTIVE AS THEY ARE NOT AFFECTED BY INFLATION & INTEREST RATE:

1.SKUMAR NATION(66.20): READY FOR DECENT UP MOVE VERY SHORTLY. JUST BUY THIS IN FUTURE.KEEP STOP LOSS OF 56 HOLD FOR TARGET OF 88-94+++.EVERY ONE MUST BUY JULY FUTURE OR IN DELIVERY.

2.PIRAMAL GLASS(133.25): BUY FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 155++. EVEN A LONG TERM CALL ON THIS STOCK IS VERY BULLISH.

3.PATNI(357.70): BUY THIS STOCK FOR DECENT GAINS AS IT HAS DE-LISTING NEWS ON CARDS. THE STOCK COULD GIVE DECENT UP MOVE FROM HERE.IT MAY TAKE 3-4 MONTHS TIME.

4.SAINT GOBAIN(42.70):THIS STOCK IS CONSISTENTLY MOVING UP FOR HUGE GAINS TILL 55-60 LEVELS. HOLD TIS STOCK FOR 3-4 MONTHS. YOU COULD GAIN 30% TO 45% IN DELIVERY IRRESPECTIVE OF MARKET.

5.KENNAMETAL IND(670.75): THIS STOCK HAS HUGE POTENTIAL TO MOVE TO 1000++ VERY SOON ON SOME NEWS FLOW.BUY THIS STOCK ON EVERY DEEP CUT.

KTKBANK(121.70):BUY THIS STOCK FOR DECNT UPSIDE MOVE OF 15% TO 20% FROM CMP BY NEXT 30-45 DAYS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 15th JUNE 2011

IT HAS BEEN A DAY WHICH SAW RESILIENCE IN THE MARKET EVEN AFTER THE ALARMING INFLATION FIGURES. MARKET NEGLECTED ALL HE BAD NEWS AND CLOSED IN GREEN.NIFTY CLOSED AT 5500(UP 17.70) AND SENSEX AT 18308.66(UP 42.63)ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, BUT WITH LOW VOLUMES.


ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT MARKET HAS PRICED IN THE 25bps HIKE IN INTEREST RATE BY RBI ON 16TH JUNE POLICY REVIEW MEET. GOING FORWARD, ANALYSTS FORESEE 50bps TO 75bps HIKE OVER NEXT SIX TO NINE MONTHS. ALSO THEY BELIEVE THAT INFLATION & INTEREST RATES MAY TAPER DOWN BY THE END OF THIS YEAR. NOW A GOOD MONSOON AND CRUDE BELOW $100 WILL BOOST THE SENTIMENT AFTER 3-4 MONTHS AND INDIAN EQUITY MARKET WILL SET FOR GOOD UP SIDE SPURT HEADING NIFTY TO 6700++ AND SENSEX TO 23000++. HOWEVER THIS WILL TAKE 2-3 QUARTERS FROM NOW. HENCE THERE MUST BE SOME GOOD VALUE PICKS FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.


TODAY, 15TH JUNE:MARKETS MAY OPEN IN GREEN DUE TO POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, BUT THE MARKET MAY NOT SUSTAIN AT THE HIGHER LEVELS(AROUND 5550-5600). IT IS ADVISABLE TO BUY PE5600 & PE5500 AT THESE HIGHER LEVELS AND HOLD TILL MARKET COMES DOWN FROM 16TH. IF THE RBI HIKES THE RATE BY MORE THAN 5bps AND THE LANGUAGE REMAINS HAWKISH THEN CERTAINLY WE ARE GOING TO SEE NIFTY AROUND 5200-5000 RANGE BY NEXT 1-2 MONTHS.


NO DELIVERY BUYING IS SUGGESTED TILL 16TH POLICY IS OUT. HOWEVER ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE VALUE PICK.


THOSE INTERESTED IN INFORMATION DURING THE TRADING SESSION MAY JOIN THE YAHOO CHAT: vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in


ATROLOICALLY: THERE WILL BE A SHARP FALL AFTER THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONITE AND FROM 16TH THERE WILL BE SHORT TERM WEAKNESS, WHERE NIFTY COULD TEST 5400-5350. SELLING STOCKS AT THESE LEVELS AND BUYING BACK AFTER SOME DAYS MAY REDUCE YOUR COST PRICE. A BIG RALLY WILL BE SEEN FROM AUGUST 12TH, 2011 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 14th JUNE 2011

IN A VOLATILE SESSION ON MONDAY, MARKET CLOSED FLAT,AFTER RECOVERY FROM THE LOWS IN THE MORNING SESSION.NIFTY CLOSED AT 5482.80 DOWN 3 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 18266.03 DOWN 2.51 POINTS.THE CLOSING LEVEL COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER IF RELIANCE WOULD NOT HAVE PERFORMED NEGATIVELY IN THE MARKET.


ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE CREDIT POLICY ON 16TH WILL BE TURNING POINT FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM.ANALYSTS SAY THAT MARKET HAS PRICED IN 25bps HIKE IN REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE, HOWEVER THE IMPORTANT POINT WILL BE THE LANGUAGE WHICH RBI USES FOR FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION.
IF RBI HIKES INTEREST RATE BY 25bps AND REMAINS SOFT ON FURTHER POLICY MEASURES FOR CONTROLLING INFLATION AND EXPECTS THE INFLATION TO COME DOWN AFTER GOOD MONSOON,THEN THERE WILL BE SOME CHEER IN THE MARKET AND NIFTY MAY HEAD TOWARDS 5700-5800.(CHANCES OF THIS SCENE IS VERY VERY REMOTE)


IF RBI HIKES RATES BY 25bps AND USES HAWKISH LANGUAGE AND EXPRESSES CONCERNS OVER THE INFLATION AND HINTS THE CHANCES OF USING THE SAME MEASURE BY FURTHER RATE HIKE, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF AND NIFTY COULD HEAD LOWER TO 5300-5200 AND LATER IT MAY BE RANGE BOUND(5200-5400).


NOW IN ANOTHER SCENE RBI COULD HIKE RATES BY 50bps OR MORE IN ONE TRANCE AND HINT THE TOPPING OUT OF THE SAME,THEN MARKET MAY PLUNGE DUE TO PROSPECTIVE SETBACK TO THE GROWTH. NIFTY COULD HIT LOW OF EVEN 5000.( CHANCES OF THIS CONDITION ARE ALSO REMOTE.


LAST BUT NOT LEAST, RBI MAY REFRAIN FROM RATE HIKE AND CONSIDERS GROWTH PROSPECTS ALSO. THEN TOO MARKET MAY CHEER LITTLE BIT BUT IT WILL COME DOWN AS THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SERIOUS CONCERNS , WHICH MAY WORRY FIIs AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.


HENCE CREDIT REVIEW POLICY BY RBI
SHALL BE A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE IN WHICH THE MARKET IS LOOKING FOR. IN SUCH CASE IT WILL BE WISE TO PLAY WITH THE FOLLOWING STRATEGY.:


BUY CE5500 AND PE5500,i.e., MAKE A STRADDLE OF 5500 NIFTY OPTION (IN JUNE SERIES).AND NIFTY RANGE SHALL BE 5400-5600. ANY POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE NEWS SHALL BRING PROFITS TO THE OPTION PLAYERS, AS NIFTY WILL BREAK THE EITHER SIDE, TURNING THE PRICE TO PROFITS.


HAPPY OPTION TRADING!!!!!!!

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Dismissing fears of a slowdown, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said India's growth drivers are intact and the Centre is committed to policy reforms.