MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 1ST OCT 2012 TO 5TH OCTOBER 2012

Markets recovered on Friday last week after the September settlement on strong global cues and rising value of Rupee against USD. Indices closed on  flat note on weekly basis, Sensex closed at 18762.74 and Nifty at 5703.30

As said previously Indian markets will continue to outperform on back of reforms in key sectors and increased liquidity flows led by FIIs. As per the information from sources, some key structural reforms in Infra, Power, Oil & Gas are on the table of Government for introduction very soon. These reforms may also affect the other sectors, like Banking & Financing  very positively. 

Hence these fundamental changes could not be ignored. Markets will anticipate the growth ( with re-rating and attributing of increased PE) and rise in EPS of  due to higher margins of India Inc. Hence the fundamental changes now will be priced in markets. Hence Indices will rise, Sensex to  19,000-19,700 and Nifty to 5,900-6,000 initially and then there will be big jump by next year before budget. As per my view Indices shall make new highs very soon..... Hence any fall or correction on any negative news from the globe or home, should be utilized to buy selective Stocks for medium term( 6-8 months) and Long term (3-5 years).

Technically speaking Nifty will face stiff resistance around 5750 levels and if it is able to maintain above this level then the upward rally might carry it to 5810-20 and there after to 5900-5920. On the other hand breach of 5500 would indicate end of the current rally and then in that case Nifty will test 5200-5150. Hence all those who have long in trading position should keep strict stop-loss of 5500. 

FOR THIS WEEK: No trading zone for the Nifty is 5620-5730.
Buy Calls or buy Nifty Future, if Nifty moves above 5730, keeping stop-loss of 5620 for the  target of  5820-5900.
Buy Puts or sell Nifty Future, if Nifty breaks below 5620, keeping stop-loss of 5730 for the target of 5560-5500.

Following Stocks looks good to buy in delivery for 45-60 days holding:

1. OFSS(3011.00): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  3100-3250-3450+++(Can buy in Trading A/c too-sl 2840) 

2. ARVIND (79.85): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  100+++ (Can buy in Trading A/c too-sl 74.00) 

3 LUPIN(596.30): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  610-630-655+++(Can buy in Trading A/c too-sl 580) 

4. ITC(271.90): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  285-300-310+++(Can buy in Trading A/c too-sl 259) 

5. KRBL(24.75): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  28-32-35+++

6. GATI (40.70): Buy at cmp and/or on correction for the target of  48-55-60-65+++

7. BATA(979.55): Buy at cmp and/or on correction for the target of  1000-1040-1100-1250+++

8. ALEMBIC PHARMA(71.50): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  80-88-94+++

9. DELTA CORP(70.70): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  78-85-90-100-115+++( This Stock may rise huge in short term. Buy to hold till Deepawali and beyond)

10. WOCKHARDT (1292.75): Buy at cmp or on correction for the target of  1360-1420-1500-1650+++(Can buy in Trading A/c too-sl 1230) 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 24TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 28TH SEPTEMBER 2012

In last week Indian Capital Market has seen significant events which have helped the Indices to rise in triple digit where Sensex closed gaining almost 4.06% at 18752.83 and Nifty closed at 5691.15 with the gains of almost 4.70% over last week. The positive sentiment was built by the Governments stance to stick with the reforms, however after Sri Mulaym Singh's extending support to the Center has been the sigh of relief for all investing community as arrogant Mamta Di has  pulled the leg of the center. 

Opposition and parties with vested interest have failed to observe the national interest. All the reforms introduced by Dr. Manmohan Singh are very very healthy for India in long run. Even they need to do more than this, but its bad luck that we do not have a healthy opposition. If the growth of the country is hampered, its not because of the policies of the Government but mainly due to incompetent and disgusting Opposition and leaders who have nothing more than their own interest.

Going forward Indian rupee may see some depreciation( or fall in value in terms of other currencies because of reducing withhold tax from 20% to 5% on overseas borrowing. Also even if we don't receive any big jolt from political parties either opposition or ally to the center, the rally in Indian bourses may continue to till 5800-5850 only. However as and when index proceeds towards 5800 selling pressure will be observed. The operators on Indices (like FIIs and DIIs) may be willing to book profits around 5800-5850. Hence its advisable to book in Index long position around 5750-5780. Stock specific approach will be very helpful in making money in short and medium term. 

Taking note from some of the leading technical analysts-- "Nifty has risen almost 9.68% from the lows made on 5215.60 (September, 6th) in just 15 days. Now the resistance of the Nifty is around 5730. If Nifty is able to sustain above 5730 levels then it might rally to 5820 & 5900 on the other hand only a breach of 5500 on the down side may result in end of current rally and  in that case Nifty may test 5200 level again.. Hence it will be advisable to to book out any long position on Nifty around 5730-50 levels and sit aside or stock specific approach could be followed. 

FOR THIS WEEK: Index players must keep in mind that no trade zone for Nifty is 5620-5730. 

1. Go long in Index if Nifty moves above 5730, maintaining stop-loss of 5620 for the target of 5820 & 5900.

2. Go short in Index if Nifty breaches below 5620 for the target of 5560 and 5500, keeping 5730 as stop-loss.

Note: Option players may buy the nearest in-the-money call or put as and and when No Trading Zone is broken on either side.

STOCKS TO BUY IN DELIVERY FOR 45-60 DAYS:

1. GUJRAT FLUORO(378.80): Buy for the target of 390-420-450+++(May move to 550+++ by next few months, just a news from a HNI)

2.  ALEMBIC PHARMA(71.05): Buy for the target of 78-85-88+++++

3. EXIDE(148.95): Buy for the target of 160-165++

4. LIC HOUSING FIN(267.90): Buy for the target of 280-300+++

5. PIDILITE(203.55): Buy for the target of 225-250+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 17TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 21ST SEPTEMBER 2012

Last week Stock & Commodity Markets across the globe cherished on important global development FED introducing the much awaited QE3. Indian Stock Market made huge gains in the led by global and domestic cues. Market sentiments were boosted by hike in diesel prices by Rs5/litre and capping of subsidiased LPG Cylinder to 6/year. After the close of the market on Friday positive steps by the Government towards reforms and policy action like much awaited FDI in Retail(51%) and Aviation (49%), also in Power Trading and Broadcasting,  in process of fiscal consolidation government announced disinvestment plan in 5 PSUs like Hind Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite & MMTC to raise about Rs15000 crore to meet the target of Rs30,000 crores in current fiscal, show that government has come in action now even after much criticism and opposition by the various parties, who have already hampered the growth of the nation in thier own vested interest. Thanks to our visionary Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan for such a bold step and determination.

Going forward, market is keen to watch the political as well as economic developments. The RBI policy review scheduled on Monday,17th September 2012. Market is not expecting any changes in CRR or Repo-rate ( almost 85% of the analysts and participants ) however almost every one believes that RBI will take some major rate cut decision on its October 31st , 2012 Policy, however more concern is on the language of RBI and its stance in tackling the inflation and interest rate amid deteriorating IIP numbers and GDP growth, scaling inflation and pouring foreign funds affecting the forex rates. Hence its important to watch this event. Also sentiment could be affected if the allies of UPA going against the Government's steps take some bold decisions to withdraw from Government. As per the sources , Government is confident of its steps and it will not meet an end before the general elections of 2014.

Analysts and fund managers have turned their view positive in markets and majority believes that after the positive steps taken by the government, global fund managers view will change significantly in favor of India and in months to come it could attract huge investment allocation this could lead Indices to march ahead along with some correction to 5800 in near future (say by 30-45 days) and 6350++ by next 120-150 days.

Several time in past I have mentioned about the markets to march ahead and suggested buying on every fall, even when several experts in media were frightening and checking people to stay away and alert from the market that it will collapse and similar horrible stories..... Those who have bought the quality stocks suggested are in profit now......

Those who have still not participated and waiting for a correction , will never be able to get the stocks in near future as markets may rise significantly from here. Every dip will be bought as there will be deluge of funds from FIIs. Rupee may rise to 48/$. In short term Nifty may rise to 5800 and Sensex to 19500 levels. 

Buy the following Stocks in delivery for 45-60 days:

1. CESC(306.30):Buy for a price target of 340-360-400++

2. DISH TV(76.65):Buy for a price target of 90-100++

3. TRENT(1075.00):Buy for a price target of 1150-1225-1400+++

4. BATA (957.50):Buy for a price target of 1000-1080-1200+++

5. ZEE ENT(169.95): Buy for a price target of 180-192-200++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 10TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 14TH SEPTEMBER 2012

Past week has witnessed the positive move on the Indices of Indian Capital Market despite several political & economic concerns and worries. Nifty has closed above the 5350 level ( on Saturday's Special trading session), while Sensex closed around  17750, which shows that ample liquidity  has kept the indices buoyant.

Indian Market is likely to trade higher on hopes of more liquidity flowing into the markets as ECB promised to buy unlimited bonds subject to certain conditions. However the domestic political chaos has led to very pessimistic view in the pushing up of any reform measures in the near future. Monsoon session of the Parliament was totally disgusting and un-fateful. This has given a very weak signal to all investor community across the globe. However the proposed hike in Petrol prices, LPG and Diesel could do some thing positive to cut the widening fiscal deficit.
Coming weeks are very important as there will be certain events which have to play an important impact on the flow of funds in Indian Capital Market. IIP for the month of July 2012, then FOMC meet in US on 13th September, India's WPI number on 14th September will bear directly on the markets and RBI Credit Policy meet on 17th September. 

Hence the week ahead is very very important for Indian Capital Market. Keep close eye on all the events lined up.........

Fund Managers and Investment Analysts believe that Indian Markets will keep on attracting global funds which are available due to ample liquidity. In the Short term Sensex could touch 18200-18400 & Nifty to 5500-5600. 
Stock specific approach shall be the best for getting some gains in these volatile markets.

However one should keep some risk factors in mind. If the FED comes out some thing shocking or unexpected or RBI fails to cut rate in the coming meet could lead to sharp correction in Indices and stocks and then we could see Nifty coming back to 5000 levels. Hence on should be very very selective in stocks.

Technically, after making a low of 5215.60 on Tuesday, Nifty has given a strong pull back rally of almost 3%. Now it expected that this rally will continue to 5450.
If Nifty is able to survive above 5450 the up ward rally might continue to 5510 & 5630. However getting of strong resistance at 5450 and not being able to sustain above that might lead to profit booking by very short term derivative traders and Nifty may come back to 5300 levels. 

FOR THIS WEEK: No trading Zone for the Nifty is 5300 to 5400.

BUY CE 5400 & CE 5500 or Nifty Fut:If Nifty survives above 5400 for the target of 5450 & 5510 keeping stop-loss of 5300.

Buy PE 5400 & PE 5300 or Short Nifty Fut: If Nifty breaks below 5300 for the target of 5250 & 5210 keeping stop-loss of 5400.

Following Stocks are best to trade & Invest( Delivery Holding Period: At least 45-60 days)

1.  LT(1373.30): Buy for the target of 1400-1450-1500+++

2. Auro Pharma(129.60): Buy for the target of 150-160 +++

3. Sun Pharma(666.15): Buy for the target of 685-700-720++++

4.Tinplate(53.55): Buy for the target of 60-65++++

5. Themis Medicare(96.00): Buy for the target of 105-110-120-150++++( Long term holding will be very good)

6. Asian Paints(3770.00): Buy for the target of 3840-3910-3990-4000+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.