MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 30TH APRIL 2012 TO 4TH MAY 2012

IN LAST WEEK AFTER SPECIAL TRADING SESSION INDICES LOST AROUND 1%-1.5% DUE TO FALL IN THE PRICES OF RELIANCE, LT, BHARTI, ETC ALONG WITH THE VOLATILE GLOBAL CUES. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER AND NEGATIVE OUTLOOK GIVEN TO INDIA BY S&P, NO POSITIVE STATEMENT BY GOVERNMENT ON REFORMS AND UNCERTAINTY LOOMING OVER 'GAAR' AND TAXATION ON FIIs THERE WAS CHAOS AND MURKY SENTIMENT AMONG FIIs, WHO HAVE CONTINUOUSLY SOLD (ON NET BASIS) IN CASH MARKET.  HOWEVER DIIs WERE NET BUYERS IN THE ENTIRE WEEK IS SIGN OF RELIEF.  GLOBALLY FOMC RAISED U.S GDP GROWTH PROJECTION WHILE LOWERING THE ESTIMATES FOR UNEMPLOYMENT MADE U.S INDICES CLOSED HIGHER, BOJ EXPANDED IT MONETARY STIMULUS TO BOOST THE WORLD'S THIRD LARGEST ECONOMY AND SOUTH KOREA'S ECONOMY GREW FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN Q1CY12. ON SATURDAY SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED AT 17134.25 & 5190.60


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON NUMBERS FROM AUTO AND CEMENT COMPANIES IN THE MAY FIRST WEEK AND RESULTS MAY KEEP ON AFFECTING THE PRICES OF STOCK SPECIFICS. 


THERE IS LOT OF WORRY AMONG RETAIL AS WELL AS BIG INVESTORS AND INSTITUTIONS TOO, THAT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM FUTURE SPECIALLY IF UPA GOVERNMENT FAILS COMPLETELY ON REFORM PROCESS & POLICY FRONT. THE RUN EXPECTED AFTER THE FIRST RATE CUT BY RBI ALSO FAILED TO TRIGGER THE STRONG UP MOVE AND IF THE MONSOON FAILS TO DELIVER GOOD RAIN AND DIESEL PRICES IF UNCONTROLLED COULD LEAD TO FAILURE IN FALL OF EXPECTED INFLATION RATE, WILL BE A CHAOTIC SITUATION, ETC ETC ARE MANY HAUNTING QUESTIONS IN EVERY BODY MIND.


HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 13 TIMES THE FY13 EARNINGS OF NIFTY(Actually the consolidated EPS of all Stocks in Nifty is Nifty EPS or Nifty Earnings). HENCE ON THIS BASIS ANY INDEX TRADING AT AROUND 13 TIMES TO ONE YEAR FORWARD EARNINGS IS CONSIDERED TO BE FAIR & JUSTIFIED VALUATION(5100-5300). HENCE THIS WILL KEEP THE INDEX FROM FALLING VERY STEEPLY BELOW 5100 ANY DIP BELOW 5100 WILL BE A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE SELECT STOCKS.


WHEN I SAY SELECT STOCKS IT MEANS STOCKS WHICH HAVE HUGE POTENTIALS TO OUT PERFORM THE MARKET IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM. IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEANS FRONT LINE OR STOCKS IN LIME LIGHT. 


I ALWAYS ATTEMPT TO PUT BEFORE YOU WHAT EVER I COULD COLLECT FROM VARIOUS SOURCES, PROCESS IT, DISCUSS IT AND ANALYSE IT ON VARIOUS ANGLES BEFORE IT COMES IN THE NEWS AND MARKET PRICES-IN THAT INFORMATION OR NEWS. 


RECENTLY I HAVE GIVEN SEVERAL DE-LISTING THEMES LIKE ALFA LAVAL, THOMAS COOK, FKONCO, KENNA METAL, SAINT GOBAIN(SEKUSAI), ETC AND MANY OF YOU HAVE MADE HUGE MONEY IN THOSE STOCKS. ALSO I GIVE SEVERA STOCKS OF OTHER THEMES OF LONG AS WELL AS SHORT TERM. SOME TRADING STOCKS HAVE SOME OR THE OTHER NEWS, WHICH GIVES RETURN IN SHORT TERM. HOWEVER I NEVER RECOMMEND OR SUGGEST ANY MEMBER, READER OR FOLLOWER OF THIS BLOG FOR INTRA-DAY OR SPECULATIVE MOVES. ALL MY RECOMMENDATIONS REQUIRE PROPER DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE AND YOUR OWN INVEST-ABLE MONEY AND NOT THE BORROWED FUNDS. 


CONCLUDING, FUNDAMENTALLY INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY PRICED AND I DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE AND EVEN IF SLIPS BELOW 5100 THAT WILL BE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE MORE AND MORE STOCKS. GOING FORWARD MARKETS WILL BE GUIDED BY DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES AND THERE WILL BE GRADUAL UPSIDE AND NIFTY WILL BREAK THE TIGHT RANGE OF 5130-5350 ON THE HIGHER SIDE. HENCE I SUGGEST TO BUY THE SELECT STOCKS AT CURRENT LEVELS. INVEST AT LEAST 35%-40% IF YOU HAVE ANY FEAR AND LACK CONVICTION IN THE MARKET AT THIS TIME.


DAILY CHART OF THE NIFTY SUGGEST THAT IT HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE NARROW RANGE OF 5130-5350 SINCE LAST TWO WEEKS. I EXPECT THIS RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS AND FINALLY BREAK. (My expectation is higher side). IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5100 THEN 5050 & 4940 WILL BE SEEN, WHERE ONE CAN FULLY INVEST (I wish I could be lucky to get these levels as I understand that it will be below fair valuation and soon it will bounce back). HOWEVER ON THE HIGHER SIDE BREACH OF 5350 WILL LEAD TO SHARP SHORT COVERING AND VALUE BUYING AND NIFTY MAY REACH 5510 & 5630 ON VERY SHORT TERM. 
HENCE I SUGGEST BUYING WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5100 FOR ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL AND KEEP INVESTING.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE(NTR) FOR THE NIFTY IS 5180-5290.


IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5180 THEN BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE5200 & PE5100) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5290 FOR THE TARGET OF 5130 & 5100.


IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5290 THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS(CE5300 & CE5400) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5180 FOR THE TARGET OF 5350 & 5430.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR BUYING IN SHORT TERM DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS) AND FUTURES AS POSITIONAL(5-14 DAYS):


1. GODREJ IND FUTURE(270.80): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 280-295-310++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 260.


2. DR REDDY'S FUTURE(1801.85): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 1840-1860-1880++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 1770


3. ATUL LIMITED(199.95): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 230-250++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.


4. DCM LIMITED (103.00): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 130-140++ . STOP-LOSS OF 85 NEEDED(OPERATOR DRIVEN STOCK).


5. COROMANDEL INT (262.45): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 300-310+++ . NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.


6. PIRAMAL GLASS(109.60): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 120-130+++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED


I SUGGEST HOLD ON ALL PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED STOCKS LIKE:


FKONCO, KENNAMEATL, THOMAS, KSL, SKUMAR, MC-DOWELL, CERA SANITARY, JAMNA AUTO, GRAPHITE, RALLIS AND MANY OTHERS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 23RD APRIL 2012 TO 27TH APRIL 2012

IMPORTANT NOTICE

 EVERY READER, MEMBER & FOLLOWER OF THE BLOG IS INFORMED THAT FROM THE NEXT WEEK ONLY THE MEMBERS OF THE BLOG WILL HAVE ACCESS TO THE CONTENTS/POSTINGS/NEWS/ INFORMATION /TIPS ETC. THOSE WHO ARE NOT MEMBERS YET SHOULD JOIN THE BLOG IMMEDIATELY AND MAIL THEIR NAME & EMAIL ID TO "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in" or sms at "09335976722". FROM NEXT WEEK YOU NEED TO LOGIN USING THE SAME EMAIL ID AND PASSWORD. 

EVEN AFTER THE UNEXPECTED REPO RATE CUT BY RBI IN ITS ANNUAL MONETARY POLICY BY 50bps ABOVE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 25bps INDIAN  STOCK MARKET DIDN'T SHEW DESIRED ENTHUSIASM AND CLOSED THE WEEK BY DISMAL GAIN OF 1.6% EACH, SENSEX & NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 17373.84 & 5290.85. INDIA'S INFLATION RATE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH WAS 6.89% AGAINST 6.95% FOR FEBRUARY 2012. IN A MOJOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE GLOBAL FRONT THE GROUP OF 20 NATIONS HAS PLEDGED USD $430 BILLION TO I.M.F, MORE THAN DOUBLING ITS CAPACITY TO PROTECT THE WORLD ECONOMY FROM THE IMPACT OF EURO-ZONE'S DEBT CRISIS.


IN THE EVENTFUL WEEK AHEAD, INDIAN MARKET IS LIKELY TO MOVE A RANGE WAITING FOR SOME MORE GLOBAL CUES TO CLEAR THE DIRECTION OF MARKETS FOR THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM. FOMC MEETING ON 25TH APRIL, GDP DATA OF US AND UK, PMI DATA IN GERMANY AND F&O EXPIRY ON 26TH APRIL 2012 WILL BE THE KEY EVENTS TO WATCH , WHICH MAY HAVE THEIR IMPACT ON VOLATILITY AND DIRECTION. Q4 CORPORATE RESULTS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL COUNTERS AND SECTORS. TCS, STERLITE, ICICI BANK, JINDAL STEEL, WIPRO ARE SOME IMPORTANT RESULTS TO WATCH FOR.
IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM INFLOW OF GLOBAL FUNDS TO INDIAN MARKETS WILL KEEP THE MARKET BUOYANT AND EVERY DIP WILL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY.


THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY AND THEY WILL KEEP ON GOING HOWEVER A LIQUIDITY AND INFLOW OF FUNDS WILL KEEP ON HOLDING THE MARKETS. CURRENTLY NIFTY IS AT AROUND 13 TIMES THE FY2013 EARNINGS, EXPECTATION OF DECLINING INFLATION, LOWERING INTEREST RATE AND SOME HINT OF POLICY ACTION BY THE UPA LED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT  MAKES THE MARKETS CHEAP. ANY DOWN SIDE ABERRATION TO THE FAIR VALUATION IS DEFINITELY A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. SELECT STOCK PICKS FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PORTFOLIO BUILDING SHALL BE HIGHLY REWARDING. HENCE ANY DIP TO 5200-5000-4950 SHALL BE A VERY GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY.


MANY PEOPLE ARE WORRIED AND CAUTIOUS  ABOUT THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM REFERRING TO THE VARIOUS SITES PUBLISHING ARTICLES AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS THAT MARKETS WILL CRASH DOWN TO 4500-4000 LEVELS AND TO REPLY THEM IN ONE GO "ITS A BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFE TIME, IF YOU GET".....


MY DEAR READERS, STOCK MARKETS BEHAVE ON FUTURE ACTIONS AND ANTICIPATIONS AND THAT SEEMS TO BE PROMISING IN INDIAN CONTEXT. DON'T BE PANIC AND NERVOUS, JUST KEEP ON INVESTING IN SELECT STOCKS AND FORGET WATCHING THE INDEX AND ASSESSING THE SHORT TERM MOVES OF INDICES....... JUST BUY & BUY.............FOR THE STEEP FALL AND DOOMS DAY. 
AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED I AM REGULARLY BUYING AND CHURNING THE PORTFOLIO AND GROWING MY MONEY RATHER THAN WATCHING AND GAUGING THE NEXT MARKET MOVES.


TECHNICALLY: FOR LAST TWO WEEKS NIFTY HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NARROW RANGE OF 5130 & 5350, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SAME RANGE FOR NEXT 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5130 ON THE DOWN SIDE AND MOVES BELOW IT, THEN IT COULD TEST 5050 & 4950. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER SIDE IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE ABOVE 5350, THEN 5530 & 5610 WILL BE SEEN.


FOR THIS WEEK: THE NO TRADING ZONE  FOR NIFTY IS 5220 TO 5350. HENCE FORGET THIS ZONE FOR ANY KIND OF INDEX SPECULATION.


BUY CE5400 & CE 5500: IF NIFTY MOVES/SUSTAINS ABOVE 5350 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5130 FOR THE TARGET OF 5420-5510.
BUY PE5200 & PE5100: IF NIFTY FAILS TO HOLD 5220 AND BREAKS BELOW IT, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS 5350 FOR THE TARGET OF 5180-5130.




FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE BEST PICKS FOR 45-60 DAYS IN DELIVERY AND FOR ALSO SOME SHORT TERM PLAYERS  :


1.TTK PRESTIGE FUTURE(3506.15)-MAY SERIES: BUY FOR THE TARGET 3600-3700+++, KEEP 3440 AS STOP-LOSS IF YOU HAVE EITHER LESS MTM OR WEAK HEART [MUST BUY]


2.M&M FUTURE(731.60)-MAY SERIES: BUY FOR THE TARGET 750-770+++, KEEP 700 AS STOP-LOSS IF YOU HAVE EITHER LESS MTM OR WEAK HEART [MUST BUY]


3.SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC(534139)-CMP:94.55: BUY THIS SHARE FOR NEXT 120-150 DAYS HOLDING FOR THE FINAL TARGET OF 150-160+++


4. CERA SANITARYWARE(532443)-CMP: 255.00:BUY THIS SHARE FOR NEXT 120-150 DAYS HOLDING FOR THE FINAL TARGET OF 350-400+++


5.KALYANI STEELS LTD(500235)-CMP63.40: BUY THIS SHARE FOR NEXT 30-45 DAYS HOLDING FOR THE FINAL TARGET OF 80+++.


6.JAMNA AUTO(520051)-CMP171.50: BUY THIS SHARE FOR NEXT 30-45 DAYS HOLDING FOR THE FINAL TARGET OF 190-225 +++.




ASTROLOGICALLY: Its very good planetary situation coming on the sky soon. We may have a north ward moving market and specific stocks from the mid of the 2012............. So be ready with your money to multiply.........

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 16TH APRIL 2012 TO 20TH APRIL 2012

WEAK RESULT & POOR GUIDANCE BY INFOSYS, INDICATIONS OF TSUNAMI IN INDIA DUE TO EARTHQUAKE IN INDONESIA, DISAPPOINTING IIP DATA AND WEAK GLOBAL CUES LED TO THE INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS TO END ON THE LOWER NOTE IN SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK. SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED ALMOST 2% LOWER ON WEEKLY BASIS AT 17094.51 & 5207.45 RESPECTIVELY. BSE MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX ALSO FELL ALMOST 2% LOWER.

AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE PAST WEEK THAT MARKETS WILL HOLD THE KEY LEVEL SUPPORT AND TRADE IN A TIGHT RANGE AHEAD OF RBI MONETARY POLICY  SCHEDULED ON 17TH APRIL.

AN IMPORTANT WPI INFLATION DATA ON 16TH APRIL AND RBI POLICY ACTION ON 17TH APRIL WILL NOW DECIDE THE FATE OF THE MARKET IN VERY SHORT TERM, SAY FOR A WEEK. IF RBI COMES ONLY WITH THE CRR CUT, Chance of which is high, THEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE EASE IN THE BANKING SECTOR AND WE COULD SEE A MOMENTUM COVERING, HOWEVER ANY CUT IN INTEREST RATE (Repo or Reverse Repo) COULD LEAD TO A SHARP RALLY ON BOURSES, WHICH COULD LEAD NIFTY TO 5650++ LEVELS. KEEP CLOSE EYE ON MOVEMENT OF INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE SECTORS LIKE BANKING AND REALITY.  

RESULTS OF MAJOR COMPANIES LIKE RIL, HDFC BANK, CAIRN, JINDAL POWER, ACC WILL KEEP THE MARKETS VERY VERY VOLATILE.

IN CONCLUSION THE KEY EVENT TO WATCH ARE INFLATION FIGURES & MONETARY POLICY....... KEEP CLOSE EYE ON IT.............. TO GET THE FUTURE OUTLOOK OF THE MARKET.........

NOTE THE LEVELS VERY CAREFULLY , 5130 & 5330. IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5130 NIFTY MAY COLLAPSE TO 4970-4950 ON THE OTHER SIDE A CLOSE ABOVE 5330 WILL TAKE NIFTY TO 5400 & 5510 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HENCE ITS RECOMMENDED TO BUY AND KEEP SHORT TERM LONG POSITIONS WITH A STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5130.

FOR THIS WEEK:  NO TRADING RANGE FOR THE MARKET IS 5130 AND 5270. NOTE THAT IN THIS RANGE NIFTY WILL BE VERY VOLATILE & UNCERTAIN, HENCE THOSE WHO TRADE WILL CERTAINLY LOOSE MONEY.

Every day I reply hundreds of queries on Nifty direction and I tell every one to check the No- Trading Range(NTR) before asking. Please don't ask me the same repeated question without fully reading the blog........

BUY CE5300 & CE5400 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5270 , KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5130 FOR THE TARGET OF 5330 & 5400

BUY PE5100 & PE5000 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5130, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5270 FOR THE TARGET OF 5050 & 4970.

NOTE: ALL NIFTY TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO STRICTLY FOLLOW THE ABOVE POINTS AND SAVE THEM SELVES FROM A BIASED TRADES....


FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD TO INVEST (DELIVERY ONLY) FOR THE SHORT TERM OF 45-60 DAYS HOLDING: 




1. GRAPHITE(92.60): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 98-110-126+++++


2. HONEYWELL AUTO(2991.25):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 3200-3400++++

3. PIRAMAL CLASS(111.80):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF  

4.RALLIS(128.30):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 136-141++++( MUST BUY) 

5. SAINT GOBAIN(51.00):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 55-60-65+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

   

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 9TH APRIL 2012 TO 13TH APRIL 2012

DUE TO TRUNCATED WEEK AND CAUTIOUS APPROACH BECAUSE OF  Q4 RESULT SEASON TO START MARKET REMAINED VOLATILE AND RANGE BOUND. SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED UP 2% ON WEEKLY BASIS AT 17486.02 & 5322.00


AS ALREADY SAID STOCK MARKET IN INDIA SHALL REMAIN BUOYANT AND ATTRACT MUCH FIIs INFLOW IF THE INTEREST RATE COMES DOWN PRIMARILY. EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAINS MANY UNCOMFORTABLE MARCO-ECONOMIC, FUNDAMENTAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES AND HURDLES, THE UPCOMING RESULT SEASON SHALL  BE IN FOCUS FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. INFOSYS SHALL COME UP WITH THE Q4 RESULTS ON 13TH MAY. IT IS EXPECTED INFOSYS TO POST 2.6% SEQUENTIAL GROWTH IN TOPLINE  AND LIKELY TO ANNOUNCE AN EPS OF 40.56 FOR Q4, 2012 AND 146 FOR FY12, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG.


AS BY THE NEXT WEEK ON 17TH RBI SHALL COME OUT WITH THE CREDIT POLICY REVIEW, THIS HANGOVER WILL BE CLEARLY SEEN THIS WEEK. THOUGH MARKET ANTICIPATES NO RATE CUT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANALYST EXPECT C.R.R CUT BY 25bps  TO 50bps. SOME SECTION OF ANALYST ALSO EXPECT THE 25bps CUT IN REPO & REVERSE REPO RATE.  


UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND EVENTS ITS EXPECTED THAT NIFTY SHALL REMAIN IN THE BROAD RANGE OF 16700-18500 & NIFTY 5000-5600. EVERY DIP SHALL BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN SELECT STOCK PICKS IN BANKING, CAPITAL GOODS, POWER, HEALTH CARE & FMCG .


TECHNICALLY NIFTY NIFTY HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT AT 5150, WHICH HAS BECOME SHORT TERM CRUCIAL BASE, BELOW WHICH NIFTY MAY TEST 5050-4950 IN NO TIME. ON THE WAY UP 5400 REMAINS THE STRONG RESISTANCE. ABOVE 5400 NIFTY SHALL TEST 5510-5630 IN NO TIME.


I EXPECT NIFTY TO TEST 5400 IN THE CURRENT UP SWING THEN THERE COULD BE DOWN WARD MOVEMENT  TO TEST 5050 LEVELS. 


FOR THIS WEEK: SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 5270 AND RESISTANCE AT 5400. HENCE NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY TRADERS IS 5270-5400. 


BUY CE5400 & CE5500: IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE  5400 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5270, FOR THE TARGET OF 5510 & 5630.


BUY PE5300 & PE5200: IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5270 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5400, FOR THE TARGET OF 5200 & 5150.


NOTE: ALL NIFTY TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO STRICTLY FOLLOW THE ABOVE POINTS AND SAVE THEM SELVES FROM A BIASED TRADES....


FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD TO INVEST (DELIVERY ONLY) FOR THE SHORT TERM OF 45-60 DAYS HOLDING:




1. GRAPHITE(89.10): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 98-110-126+++++


2. HONEYWELL AUTO(2782.05):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 3000-3200++++


3. DHANLAXMI BANK(75.40): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 82-85-90++++


4. NESCO(663.05):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 690-730+++


5. GUJRAT FLUORO(527.95):BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 560-600++++++


6. VIVIMED LAB (414.05): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 440-500++++


7. BGR ENERGY(355.65): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 380-400+++


8. TTK PRESTIGE(3214.35): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 3400-3500++++


9. MC DOWELL(676.05): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 700-750+++


10. STATE BANK OF INDIA(2164.30): BUY AND ADD ON THE DIP FOR THE TARGETS OF 2200-2400+++++




ASTROLOGICALLY: MARS BECOMING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL AND CONFIGURATION ATION OF PLANETS SUGGEST A VERY VOLATILE MOVEMENT. SATURN'S RETROGRESSION COULD NOW BE SET TO GIVE ITS LAST PHASE UPSWING. HENCE WE COULD SEE A START OF NEW RALLY SOON ANY TIME AFTER 15TH 2012 APRIL, BUT BEFORE THAT I AM NOT CONFIDENT OF UP SWING, RATHER THERE COULD BE SOME SHARP DOWN SWING. HENCE BUYING STOCKS MAY  GIVE DECENT RETURNS TILL SATURN IS RETROGRADE.....


THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS..........USE YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT POWER AND DON'T RELY COMPLETELY ON THIS




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 2ND APRIL 2012 TO 6TH APRIL 2012

AFTER MUCH DEBATE ON 'GAAR', PARTICIPATORY NOTES, TAXATION AND CLARIFICATION COMING IN ON THESE, THE CONFUSION CREATED IN MEDIA CONTINUES. AMID ALL THESE MARKET PRICED IN ALL THE NEGATIVES AND MARCHES AHEAD AFTER THE MARCH SETTLEMENT. SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED WITH WEEKLY GAINS OF AROUND 2% AT 17404.20 & 5295.55.


FUNDAMENTALLY NOTHING AS SUCH HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN FAVOR OF ECONOMY AND CORPORATE WORLD. COALITION POLITICS IS HURTING THE REFORM PROCESS(See Railway Budget, where the fare hike was taken back), NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS GIVEN IN THE BUDGET AS PER EXPECTATIONS, CRUDE PRICES ARE GOING UP, HIKE IN ENERGY PRICES & EXCISE DUTY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED LEVELS, BOND YIELDS ARE AT UNREASONABLY HIGHER LEVELS, RUPEE WEAKENING AGAINST DOLLAR, GOVERNMENT BORROWINGS IS INCREASING AT THE ALARMING RATE, AND MANY OTHER ODDS WORKING AGAINST THE CAPITAL & COMMODITY MARKETS....
THE BIG QUESTION IS  WHAT IS LEADING THE MARKET TO SUSTAIN THESE LEVELS AROUND 16% ABOVE THE LOWS MADE IN DEC 2011(NIFTY 4531.25 & SENSEX 15190.74) & SOME FRONT LINE STOCKS HAVE GONE UP BY AROUND 30%, EVEN IF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED BY THEN????


AND TO ME AND OTHER ANALYSTS, THE ONLY FACTOR WHICH HAS DRIVEN THE MARKET IS GLOBAL LIQUIDITY. FIIs HAVE APPROXIMATELY BOUGHT INDIAN EQUITIES WORTH $9.06 BILLION($4.37 BILLION IN 2010, WHEN FIIs HAVE PUMPED RECORD $29.32 BILLION & SENSEX ROSE AROUND 17%)  NET OF SALES FROM JANUARY 2012 TILL MARCH END, THE HIGHEST IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF ANY CALENDER YEAR SINCE JANUARY 1993, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT HAS FIRST OPENED THE DOORS FOR FIIs IN INDIA. 


ON TUESDAY, 27TH MARCH FINANCE MINISTRY CLARIFIED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT TARGET THE SO CALLED P-NOTES IN A BLANKET MANNER UNDER THE NEWLY PROPOSED RULES TARGETING TAX AVOIDANCE, ONLY PNs THAT FAIL CERTAIN REGULATORY TESTS MAY BE SUBJECT TO TAXATION. (Learn: Proxy Notes or P-Notes are instruments which allow foreign investors to invest indirectly in Indian markets, routing the investment through countries that have favorable tax regimes such as Mauritious, which has tax treaty with India)
ON FRIDAY, 30TH MARCH, FINANCE MINISTER SAID THAT FINANCE MINISTRY WILL COME OUT WITH SEPRATE GUIDE LINES GOVERNING  GENERAL ANTI-AVOIDANCE RULES (GAAR) THAT WILL HAVE CLEAR PROVISIONS ON INVESTMENT TO BE TAXED AND WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE FROM 1ST APRIL 2012. CLEARLY NOTE- 'GAAR' HELPS TAX AUTHORITIES TO DEAL WITH COMMERCIAL TRANSACTIONS THAT ARE STRUCTURED  ESSENTIALLY TO CIRCUMVENT TAX LAWS AND AVOID PAYING TAX.


TO THIS- MARKET ANALYSTS SAID THAT ANY FORM OF TAX ON EQUITY INVESTMENTS BY FIIs IN INDIA WILL HURT THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM. 
I TOO BELIEVE THAT THEIR CONCERN IS VALID AND NEEDS CLARITY URGENTLY. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL BE ALL GUIDELINES ISSUED???? AS MARKET DOESN'T LIKE UNCERTAINTY OVER JUSTIFIED TIME.


COMING BACK TO THE LIQUIDITY, INDIA HAS SEEN RECORD FIIs FLOW SO FAR THIS YEAR FOLLOWING TWO TRANCHE OF LIQUIDITY INJECTION WOTH 1 TRILLION Euros BY EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK(ECB) VIA ITS LONG TERM REFINANCING OPERATIONS (LTRO) PROGRAMME.  INDIA HAS SEEN STRONG ETF INFLOWS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR BECAUSE OF ATTRACTIVELY VALUED STOCKS( DECMEBER 2011-JANUARY 2012), A WEAKER RUPEE AND THE FLUSH OF LIQUIDITY GLOBALLY.  HENCE ETF FUND FLOWS ARE INFLUENCING MARKET MOVEMENTS.


NOW IF THE SENTIMENT IN INDIA IS GOOD THERE WILL BE HIGHER INFLOWS IN THE SIMILAR MANNER, AND IF THE SENTIMENTS BECOME MURKY ON ISSUES LIKE 'GAAR', P-NOTES, WEAKENING RUPEE MAY THREATEN THE FIIs SENTIMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY REVERSE THE ETF FLOW IN INDIA IN THE SHORT TERM. NOTE: THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM PHENOMENON AND NOT THE PERMANENT LONG TERM ISSUE.


THE QUESTIONS WHICH ARE BOGGLING EVERY ONE'S MIND ARE: 


" Why was GAAR being taken up in Budget, at such a time when we are expected to get the deluge of FIIs fund Flows??"


" Why Finance Ministry is not coming out with crystal clear guide lines?? 


"Is the makers of the policy testing the impact and outcomes with some hidden agenda??"


"Who is going to benefited if the sentiments deteriorates and markets falls further?"


"Will the guidelines be clarified soon or will be lingered more?"


NO BODY IS THERE TO HONESTLY SPEAK ON THESE..............


SECOND IMPORTANT POINT WHICH IS WORTH CONSIDERING IS " When is FED going to start QE3?"


ANALYSTS AROUND THE WORLD EXPECT THE QE3(AT LEAST $500-$750 BILLION) TO START AS EARLY AS IN APRIL-MAY 2012, BUT NOT LATER THAN JUNE 2012.(Note:  In US, FOMC Minutes on April 3, 2012 are unlikely to unveil any major discussion about QE3 or extending Operation Twist rather statement will be searched for any clues regarding the prospects of QE3 . So don't get excited on this expectation). HOWEVER A BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS THIS WHERE IT WILL LEAD THE INVESTMENT? EQUITY OR COMMODITY?? AS PER THE LATEST COMMENT FROM THE FED IS POSITIVE TOWARDS PRECIOUS METALS- GOLD & SILVER. IF THE FORMER WILL BE THE FOCUS, WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT RALLY IN INDIAN EQUITY MARKET IN APRIL-MAY (MAY BE 5900+++) HOWEVER IF THE LATER WILL BE THE FOCUS THEN INDIA MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE RISE IN EQUITY INDEXES, HOWEVER COMMODITY PLAYERS MAY FIND SILVER AROUND 1Lac/kg AND GOLD AROUND 42k/10 grams. .......... ALSO THERE MAY BE RISE IN CRUDE OIL WHICH MAY SPOIL THE PARTY IN INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET.


AS PER MY ANALYSIS AND EXPECTATION  A HIGHER ALLOCATION TO INDIAN EQUITIES, IF THERE IS A RATE CUT BY RBI ON ITS CREDIT POLICY REVIEW ON APRIL 17TH, OR AN INDICATION TO START CUTTING IN JUNE 1ST WEEK POLICY MEET AND THE LAST QUARTER RESULTS AND GUIDELINES BY THE INDIA INC. 


HENCE TO SUM UP ALL EYES ARE ON INFLATION RATE, Q4 RESULTS, GDP GROWTH, RBI'S ACTION, AND MONSOON ESTIMATES... IN APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2012. 


NIFTY IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT 13xFY13 EARNINGS, WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE, IF THE NIFTY HOVERS AROUND 5000-4950 MARK, DUE TO ANY DESCRIBED REASONS, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHEAP AND WORTH BUYING!!!!!!


THIS CONCLUDES MY REASONING FOR MARKET NOT MOVING BELOW 4950 MARK HENCE FORTH. HENCE ONE GETS SUCH LEVELS, WHICH I EVEN EXPECT COULD BE SEEN, VERY SOON IN APRIL SERIES IT SELF, WE SHOULD START BUYING THE SELECT STOCKS IN MEDIUM TOO LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.


NOTE THAT YOU MAY NEVER GET BOTTOM TO BUY AND TOP TO SELL, HENCE COME OUT OF FEAR AND GREED AND SEE THE MARKET WITH UNBIASED AND  UNPREJUDICED  VISION, YOU WILL SEE THE MASSIVE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE HUGE WEALTH AND NOT JUST PETTY 4-5% PROFIT ON SHORT TERM TRADING, INTRA-DAY SPECULATION AND DERIVATIVES TECHNICAL TIPS.


FORGET ALL TECHNICAL TIPS & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, APPLY RATIONAL INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES AND ACCUMULATE WEALTH FOR YOUR BRIGHT FUTURE.


COMING BACK TO CLOSER ANALYSIS FOR APRIL SERIES, NIFTY SHOWS THAT ITS GETTING STRONG SUPPORT AT 5150 LEVEL, HENCE ITS A CRUCIAL BASE OF NIFTY. ON LAST DAY OF PREVIOUS WEEK NIFTY BOUNCED BACK WITH STRONG VOLUMES, AND THIS COULD LEAD NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5400 THEN WE WILL SURELY SEE 5520 & 5650. ON THE OTHER SIDE IF ON ANY POOR SENTIMENTAL FACTOR, NIFTY BREACHES THE BASE OF 5150, THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE 5050-4950 ALSO. 


FOR APRIL SERIES I EXPECT BOTH 4950 & 5650. BUT WHEN AND HOW???


THIS COULD BE FOUND USING ASTROLOGICAL PRINCIPLES, WHICH IS ANALYSED AT THE END, HOWEVER WE SHALL FOCUS ON NIFTY OPTIONS STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK AND SOME SELECT STOCKS WHICH MIGHT GIVE GOOD RETURN, IF MARKET SUPPORTS.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5270-5400. DON'T BE SURPRISED ON THIS WIDE GAP. MOVEMENT IN THIS ZONE WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE AND INDECISIVE. TRADING IN THIS ZONE WILL SURELY RESULT IN EITHER BULL OR BEAR TRAP AND MOUNTING LOSSES. HENCE 


BUY CE5400 & CE5500 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5400, KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 5270 FOR THE TARGET OF 5520 & 5650


BUY PE5300 & PE5200 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5270, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5400, FOR THE TARGET OF 5150-5050-4950


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT THIS WEEK FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS IN DELIVERY. BUY ONLY IF YOU HAVE YOUR OWN MONEY AND STRONG HEART TO HOLD. DON'T EXPECT A WIND FALL FORTUNE EVERY TIME ON EVERY STOCK, WHICH I MENTION:


1. TATA STEEL(470.40): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 500-535+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)


2. HIND UNILEVER(409.90): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-450+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET).


3. ORACLE FINANCIAL(2620.20): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 2800-3000+++ ONE COULD SEE DE-LISTING NEWS VERY SOON. JUST BUY IF YOU HAVE MONEY.


4. ARVIND (82.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 95-100+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)


5. MANGALORE CHEMICALS(40.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 65+++. ANY POSITIVE NEWS ON STAKE SALE BY UNITED GROUP/VIJAY MALLYA WILL MAKE THIS COMPANY SHOOT TO 65+++. BUY IN LOW QUANTITY.


6. TTK HEALTH(390.85): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-470+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD. 


7. VIVIMED LAB(404.00): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 460-480+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD. 


ASTROLOGICALLY: MERCURY GETTING DIRECT ON 4TH APRIL AND MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL ARE THE TWO MAJOR ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS. I EXPECT A FINAL DECEPTIVE MOVE BY MARKET, FULL OF VOLATILITY. MARKET MAY BE BULLISH IN IMMEDIATE TERM TILL NEXT FEW TRADING SESSIONS AS EFFECT OF MERCURY HOWEVER MOVEMENT OF IT IN VEDH CHARTS DEVOID MERCURY OF ITS STRENGTH FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, FROM APRIL 2ND WEEK, 7TH-14TH APRIL WHICH MAY LEAD A SUDDEN FALL, THEN MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL, WILL GIVE A UNI-DIRECTIONAL MOVE, UNLIKE MERCURY WHICH CONFUSED ALL FROM 12TH MARCH TILL TODAY. HENCE MARKET MAY BE BULLISH TILL APRIL 7TH ( SAY NIFTY AROUND 5400) THEN A BREAK DOWN BETWEEN 7TH -15TH APRIL  (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5000 AND THEN A SHARP RISE SAY FROM 15TH APRIL TO 30TH APRIL (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5650).


THIS PATTERN IS JUST A SIMPLEST APPROACH TO THE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, IF THERE IS NO FALL TILL APRIL 15TH THEN THERE WILL BE A FALL AFTER MARS GETTING DIRECT. HENCE ANALYSE THE MARKET AND DON'T JUST PLAY BLINDLY....


THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL APPROACH AND PREDICTIONS, PLEASE DON'T RELY ON THIS. APPLY YOUR OWN WISDOM, HAVE PATIENCE, AVOID SPECULATION AND DAY DREAMING, DON'T BE BIASED AND FOLLOW THE INVESTMENT AND TRADING PRINCIPLES. ASTROLOGY IS JUST A GUIDANCE OR IDEA IN DARKNESS AND NOT THE INSTRUMENT FOR MAKING FAST BUCK.


GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING TO ALL.


IN CASE OF ANY CLARIFICATION AND SUGGESTION PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME:
MOBILE: 9335976722
YAHOO ID : vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in
FACE BOOK: 'Astrologer Vikas Srivastava'


NOTE: I SHALL NOT BE AVAILABLE ON MESSENGER OR PHONE CALL ON MONDAY, 2ND APRIL. PLEASE SMS ONLY.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.