MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 25TH JUNE 2012 TO 29TH JUNE 2012

After the disappointment from the RBI policy and FOMC meeting regarding the QE3, and successful outcome of Grecce elections  market closed almost flat on weekly basis at Nifty 5146.05 & Sensex at 16972.51 both uo around 0.13%. Disappointment from the FED meeting lead to decline in commodity and crude prices however declining value of Rupee in terms of Dollar neutralised the effect of fall in crude prices.

The coming week is full of events like resignation of Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, as expected finance minisrty will be under the Prime Minister there will be move by the finance minsitry and RBI simultaneously to annonce the measures to contain the falling value of rupee, policy measures will be on the limelight as F.M has indicated on friday. Globally, European Summit on 28-29th June 2012 may further pledge help to Greece. Summing up broadly the market is likely to be in a range of 4780-5250 breach of which may give fresh move in the either side. In the near term as expected Nifty may test 5350-5400, if some very good announcements are made in days to come. Stocks to buy are Exide, Hind Unilever, Indian Hotels, Arvind Mills, Jubliant Food, Bombay Dyeing etc.,

Technically speaking the no trading zone for the Nifty is 5070-5180
If Nifty sustains above 5180, buy with a stop-loss of 5070 for the target of 5200-5250-5280++

If Nifty sustains below 5070, sell with a stop-loss of 5180 for the target of 5000-4950.

This week nifty may have positive bias and trading on Nifty options will be more beneficial than the futures.

Broadly as said earlier before the start of June series that market will be moving higher in the series, I expect Nifty to see its expiry above 5250-5300+++

Following Stocks looks good to buy for short term delivery(45-60 days):

1. SHALIMAR PAINT: Buy for the target of 700+++

2. BOMBAY DYE: Buy for the target of 580+++

3. ARVIND MILLS: Buy for the target of 85+++ very soon.


Astrologically: Markets will be bullish in the june series and then there will be a fall for 15-18 days, where the markets will be highly volatile and test both 5250-4750, there after I am expecting a break-out on the higher side, where Nifty will cross 6300+++ by next 4-6 months 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 18TH JUNE 2012 TO 21ST JUNE 2012

MARKET PERSISTED TO MOVE HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK EVEN AFTER BLIPS ON ACCOUNT OF CERTAIN DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES. NIFTY ENDED AT 5139.05 AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16949.83 WITH A WEEKLY GAIN OF ALMOST 1.39%. AMID THE SAGGING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND RISING INFLATION, R.B.I IS EXPECTED TO CUT REPO-RATE BY 25bps, POST THE ESCALATED INFLATION THAT STOOD AT 7.55% FOR MAY 2012 AGAINST 7.23% IN APRIL 2012. THE MARKET PRIOR TO THIS NUMBER WAS EXPECTING 50bps CUT BECAUSE OF POOR INDUSTRIAL GROWTH OF MEAGER 0.1% AND SLOWEST GDP GROWTH IN NINE YEARS AT 5.30%. 


HENCE KEEPING IN VIEW ALL THE FACTORS LIKE MOUNTING INFLATION, FALLING CRUDE PRICES, WEAK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND SHARP DECLINE IN GDP ETC SHALL EXERT MUCH PRESSURE ON RBI TO CUT THE RATES ON 18TH JUNE POLICY, LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS.  DOMESTICALLY THE POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY DUE TO CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF Mr. PRANAB MUKHERJEE TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATURE, SHALL POSE A QUESTION MARK IN THE MIND OF THE MARKET ANALYSTS AND PARTICIPANTS, WHO IS THE NEXT???? I AM SURE MARKET SHALL NOT LIKE THIS IF THE NAME OF THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER IS NOT DECLARED SOON. GLOBALLY THE FOMC MEET ON 19TH-20TH JUNE 2012, THE 7TH GROUP OF TWENTY INDUSTRIAL & DEVELOPING NATIONS (G-2O) SUMMIT SCHEDULED TO BE HELD ON 18-19TH JUNE 2012 AT MEXICO ON VARIOUS ISSUES INCLUDING EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS IS ALSO IMPORTANT EVENT WHICH THE MARKET WILL KEENLY WATCH. ALSO THE OUTCOME OF GREECE ELECTIONS SHALL MARK THE SENTIMENTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS STILL THE EXIT POLLS RELEASED SHOWED NO MAJORITY TO ANY PARTY. EUROPEAN UNION SUMMIT ON 28-29TH JUNE 2012 WILL BE THE FINAL KEY EVENT TO WATCH FOR.


GOING FORWARD IN-SPITE OF VARIOUS CONSECUTIVE EVENTS LYING AHEAD NIFTY MAY BROADLY TAKE THE SUPPORT AROUND 5000 (SENSEX 16600) ON ACCOUNT OF VALUE BUYING EMERGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE. THINGS MAY BE MORE BY LAST WEEK OF JUNE.


NIFTY HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 7.86% IN LAST  TEN TRADING SESSIONS. NOW IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 5250-4980 IN THE SHORT TERM. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO MOVE ABOVE 5250, AN UPWARD RALLY MIGHT CARRY IT TO 5350 AND THEN 5430 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER A BREACH OF 4980 WOULD INDICATE THE END OF CURRENT RALLY AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 4900 AND THEN 4770. ALL LONG POSITIONS SHOULD BE HELD WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 4980.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE OF THE NIFTY IS 5065-5190.
BUY CE5200 & CE5300: WHEN NIFTY CROSSES ABOVE 5190, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5065 FOR THE TARGET OF 5250 & 5350.
BUY PE5100 & PE5000: WHEN NIFTY BREACHES BELOW 5065 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5190 FOR THE TARGET OF 4980 & 4900.


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE WORTH BUYING ON EVERY DIP:


1.EXIDE IND(134.35): BUY AT CMP OR AT DECLINE FOR THE TARGET OF 150++( DELIVERY PICK)


2. TECH MAHINDRA(698.40): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 625-635+++. KEEP 670 AS STOP-LOSS.(SHORT TERM TRADE).


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS EXPECTED MARKET ROSE AFTER THE SOLAR ECLIPSE (MAY 21ST) AND HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY ON RISE WILL TAKE A PAUSE FROM TUESDAY,19TH JUNE 2012 TO 25TH JUNE 2012. THIS PERIOD MAY NOT BE GOOD. NIFTY MAY TAKE TEST OF 5250 AND THEN COME DOWN. HOWEVER FROM THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE TO MID OF JULY MARKETS WILL RISE. PLEASE TAKE NOTE THAT SATURN IS BECOMING DIRECT ON 25TH JUNE AND VENUS ON 27TH JUNE WILL CHANGE THE MARKET SENTIMENT TO POSITIVE. 
IMP: TAKE YOUR OWN CALL ON MARKETS AND DON'T RELY COMPLETELY ON ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 4TH JUNE 2012 TO 8TH JUNE 2012

EVEN AFTER THE NEGATIVE DOMESTIC & GLOBAL CUES, POOR GDP NUMBERS, FEARS OF FURTHER DEEPENING OF EURO ZONE CRISIS, NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT OF 4800 AND FAILED TO TAKE A SHARP KNOCK. SENSEX ENDED AT 15965.16 & NIFTY AT 4841.60 DOWN ALMOST 1.50%.


GOING FORWARD THE POOR GDP NUMBERS MAY PROPEL THE RBI TO CUT THE RATES FURTHER. ALSO THE FALLING CRUDE PRICES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE LOWERING OF INFLATION AND ON EXPECTATION OF AVERAGE TO GOOD MONSOON MAY LEAD TO BOOST THE SENTIMENTS.
THE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE INDIAN RUPEE MAY BE CHECKED BY THE AGGRESSIVE INTERVENTION OF RBI. HENCE I MAINTAIN MY VIEW THAT NIFTY MAY TAKE STRONG SUPPORT AT 4800 LEVELS AT WHICH IT TRADES AT 12xFY13, WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE. ANY GLOBAL CONTINGENCY OR SHOCKING NEWS, ESPECIALLY ON EURO-ZONE CRISIS MAY WEAKEN THE SENTIMENTS FURTHER BELOW 4800 BUT FOR VERY SHORT TERM GIVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
BUYING OF QUALITY STOCKS LIKE HIND UNILEVER, ITC, SBI, AXIS BANK, 


FOR LAST 18 TRADING SESSIONS NIFTY HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING IN THE RANGE OF 4790-5020. NOW THE IMMEDIATE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY IS 4770, BREAK ON WHICH NIFTY SHALL TEST 4720 & 4660. ON THE HIGHER SIDE BREACH OF 5040 MAY INDICATE TREND REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND THEN NIFTY COULD ALSO TEST 5130-5250. HENCE ALL TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4770 TO ALL LONG POSITIONS.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 4770-4910.
BUY NIFTY CALL(CE4900 & CE5000) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4910 FOR THE IMMEDIATE TARGET OF 4960-5040 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4770.
BUY NIFTY PUT(PE4800 & PE4700) IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 4770 FOR THE IMMEDIATE TARGET OF 4720-4640 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4910.


FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT IN DELIVERY FOR 45-60 DAYS HOLDING.


1. MCNALLY (532629 - CMP:87.70): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 95-100++++


2. SHALIMAR PAINT(509874-CMP: 590.20): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 650-700+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.