Monday, January 30, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 30TH JANUARY 2012 TO 3RD FEBRUARY 2012

AS SAID IN MY PREVIOUS POSTING MARKET WENT NEAR 5230, HOWEVER CRR CUT BY RBI WAS A UNEXPECTED MOVE. HOWEVER WAS NOT SURPRISING AS BY CUTTING CRR BY 50bps RBI IS MANAGING THE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH IN THE MARKET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CORPORATE WORLD. RBI ALSO CUT THE GROWTH RATE PROJECTION TO 7.00% FROM 7.6%, A FORECAST IN OCTOBER 2011, IT SHOWS THAT RBI IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE GROWTH PROSPECTS AND GLOBAL SITUATION. ALSO INDIAN RUPPES SHEW A REMAKABLE RECOVERY AGAINST DOLLAR DUE TO HIGHER INFLOW OF FOREIGN FUNDs, WHICH ALSO PROVIDED A GOOD PUSH IN THE MARKETS. SENSEX CLOSED AT 17233.98 & NIFTY AT 5204.70.


GOING FORWARD, CUTTING IN REPO OR REVERSE-REPO WILL BE A WELCOME MOVE AS IT WILL HIKE THE CREDIT FLOW IN THE MARKET AND MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER CORPORATE PROFITS AND HIGHER EPS RESULTING IN RE-RATING OF STOCKS AND SECTORS AND OVERALL SENTIMENTS WILL IMPROVE. HENCE 15TH MARCH REMAINS VERY CRUCIAL IN THIS RESPECT. RBI MEET ON 15TH MARCH 2012 WILL BE A VERY VERY IMPORTANT IN MANY RESPECT. THIS WILL GUIDE THE MARKET FOR FUTURE AND PROBABLY IN THIS EXPECTATION THERE WILL BE BUYING AND SHORT SQUEEZE.


NOW CONSIDERING ALL THE FUNDAMENTALS , WHICH ARE IMPROVING DAY BY DAY THE ONLY EVENT TO WATCH IS STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BY MARCH 6TH 2012, THERE AFTER IF THE CONGRESS GETS THE WINNING SITUATION MAY LEAD TO PASSING OF THE VARIOUS BILLS LIKE MULTI-BRAND RETAIL, DTC AND OTHERS ECONOMIC REFORMS........


BEFORE THAT I AM EXPECTING THE MARKET TO BE BUOYANT AND GLOBAL MONEY MAY MORE POUR-IN RESULTING THE MARKETS TO RECOVER AND RECOVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
AS I ALREADY MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES, THAT BEST IS TO KEEP-ON INVESTING IN A STAGGERED MANNER WITHOUT GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHTAGE TO INDICES AND NOT TO REMAIN SHORT IN THE MARKET, I STILL SUGGEST MANY OF THE READERS "DON'T BE SHORT OR EXPECT FREE FALL OR BOTTOM TO START BUYING, KEEP ON INVESTING GRADUALLY IN BEST QUALITY SCRIPTS.


IN FEBRUARY I AM EXPECTING 5500-5700 IN NIFTY & IF THE BROAD RANGE OF 4950-5250 IS MAINTAINED. HENCE BUY ON EVERY DIPS AND ACCUMULATE STOCKS. DON'T BE SHORT BEFORE BUDGET. 


I EXPECT SOME VOLATILE , UNCERTAIN AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MOVES AFTER 5TH FEBRUARY 2012, BETTER TO BE REMAIN INVESTED IN SELECTIVE COUNTERS LIKE RALLIS, CANFINHOMES, INDIAN HOTELS, ETC.....................


NOW THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY SHALL BE 4980-5250, HOWEVER THE NIFTY HAS RUN ALMOST 14% IN A MONTH NEEDS A REST AND CONSOLIDATION HENCE NIFTY MAY TEST 4980 IN THE SHORT TERM NOW, SAY IN THIS WEEK.......SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 5130 & RESISTANCE AT 5260. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5260 THEN 5320-5400 WILL BE ON THE SCREEN ON THE OTHER HAND  IF 5130 IS BROKEN ON THE LOWER SIDE NIFTY WILL GO FURTHER DOWN TO 5040 & 4880.
HENCE 5130-5260 IS NO TRADING ZONE. OPTION PLAYERS MAY PLAY ONLY ON BREAK OF THE EITHER SIDE OF NIFTY RANGE(5130-5260).


TO ME IT SEEMS THAT NIFTY MAY CORRECT OR CONSOLIDATE IN VERY VERY SHORT TERM , SAY FOR THIS WEEK.


WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW ??? IF NIFTY STARTS CORRECTING, WHAT TO DO???? INSTEAD OF EARNING FAST MONEY BY SHORTING ANY SPECIFIC COUNTER OR NIFTY YOU SHOULD KEEP CLOSE EYE ON THE COUNTERS WHICH I HAVE MENTIONED AND PICK THOSE SHARES AROUND THE INTERIM CORRECTIVE BOTTOMS.


WHAT PEOPLE USUALLY DO: I HAVE SEEN ALMOST EVERY ONE ASKING FOR THE SAME REPEATED QUESTIONS AND PONDERING OVER--" What Next?" "Where the Markets will move now?" & PEOPLE MAKE FALLACY AND SCUMMED TO IT.  MANY OF THE PEOPLE HAVE MISSED FROM 4750 TO 4950(AS SAID 2 WEEKS BACK) THEN MISSED 4950-5230(AS SAID IN THE LAST WEEK) AND NOW MISS ALL RALLIES IN THE FUTURE TOO, AS THE SAME MEN WILL TRY TO SEEK "SHORTING OPPORTUNITY" IN THE PREDICTED CORRECTION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  NOW THEY MAY ALSO SUCCEED IN IT, MAY EARN SOME ODD POINTS BUT THEY WILL LOOSE A BIG, WHY ????? SIMPLY BECAUSE THEIR FOCUS WILL BE ON NIFTY, OPTIONS, FUTURES, MARKET MOVES(Which they don't want to miss) & NOT ON THE QUALITY STOCKS, WHICH COULD FETCH THEM GOOD WEALTH AND MONEY WITHOUT ANY TENSION AND STRUGGLE.


HENCE ITS MY HUMBLE SUGGESTION TO ALL IS THAT DON'T TRY TO PLAY THE SHORT TERM SPECULATIVE GAME. YOU CAN NEVER MAKE BIG MONEY OR WEALTH IN IT, EVEN IF YOU MAKE SOME PROFITS........YOU WILL LOOSE IN LONG TERM.


STOCKS TO LOOK TO BUY FOR VERY SHORT TERM (20-30 DAYS):


1. DISH TV(63.35): BUY FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 80++++
2. KRBL(17.87): BUY IN DELIVERY TILL BUDGET. STOCK MAY RISE TO 28+++++
3. BATA(654.65): MUST BUY THIS STOCK. SOON YOU MAY FIND IT IN FOUR FIGURES..... BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 680-700+++
4. CANFIN HOMES(104.15): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 118-124+++++
5. EIH(90.20): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110++++
6. PRAJ IND(90.90): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 99-103++++
7. APTECH(89.25):BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++ NOTE: THIS COUNTER IS IN TRADE TO TRADE CATEGORY .HENCE BUY ONLY WHEN YOU HAVE TO TAKE DELIVERY. I SEE A GOOD RISE AROUND BUDGET. 
8. RALLIS(127.10): BUY AND ADD THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL YOU MAY FIND IT AROUND 140-150 SOON. MAY BE AROUND BUDGET...Must Buy+++++




All are requested to kindly be on-line at Yahoo Messenger Id: "vikas198012003" or Face Book Id: "Astrologer Vikas Srivastava" or sms on 9335976722 for latest updates on the stocks and market.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 23RD JANUARY 2012 TO 27TH JANUARY 2012

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN MY EARLIER POST, THAT MARKET SET TO RISE TILL 4950-5050 AND BUYING OF CALL OPTIONS AND TRADABLE STOCKS SHALL BE PROFITABLE, IT HAS HAPPENED IN EXACTLY THE SAME MANNER. INDIAN STOCK MARKET ENDED ON A HIGHER NOTE ON HEAVY BUYING BY FIIs, EASING WORRIES ABOUT EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND SOME BOUYANT RESULTS FROM COMPNIES LIFTED THE MARKETS. 
TAKING CUES FROM GLOBAL FRONT INDIAN MARKETS ROSE AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16739.01 AND NIFTY AT 5048.60.


ECONOMISTS BELIEVE THAT FOOD INFLATION IN INDIA WILL KEEP RISING DUE TO TROUBLED SUPPLY JAMS, AS DEMAND WILL KEEP ON RISING GRADUALLY AND NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE ON THE POLICY FRONT TO MATCH THE SUPPLIES ACCORDINGLY, HENCE FOOD INFLATION AND OVERALL INFLATION MAY REMAIN HIGH, UNTIL ANY THING CONCRETE IS DONE BY GOVERNMENT ON POLICY FRONT. RBI CREDIT POLICY MEET MAY JUST TO REVIEW ITS STANCE ON INFLATION. NEITHER ANY RATE CUT IS EXPECTED NOR DIVERSION OF FOCUS FROM INFLATION TO GROWTH. THE ANALYSTS MAY MINUTELY WATCH THE LANGUAGE OF RBI, WHICH WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT CUE FOR THE MARKETS GOING FORWARD. IF THE HAWKISH STANCE IS MAINTAINED FOCUSING INFLATION AND GROWTH IS NOT GIVEN ANY HEED  THEN MARKETS MAY GET THE SETBACK, HOWEVER ANY GUIDANCE TO CUT RATES SOONER MAY DEFINITELY DELIVER THE "FEEL GOOD FACTOR" RESULTING IN HIGHER MOVES IN DAYS TO COME. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI POLICY REVIEW MAY NOT BE REMARKABLE EVENT TO FURTHER MARKET RISE. JUST WATCH AND PASS-ON.............
INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO BE VOLATILE IN THIS WEEK AND MOVEMENT OF STOCKS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY CORPORATE RESULTS. DISAPPOINTING RESULTS AND BUY BACK OF SHARES BY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT THE MARKETS ON MONDAY. I NOW SUGGEST TO BOOK PROFIT/SELL ON THE RELIANCE SHARES, WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO BUY LAST WEEK.


GOING FORWARD ANY CUT OR CORRECTION IN THE INDIAN MARKET SHOULD BE USED TO ENTER THE GOOD QUALITY STOCKS AND TRADING POSITIONS. QUALITY STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT GRADUALLY IN A STAGGERED MANNER. I SHALL REGULARLY KEEP UPDATING THE LIST OF STOCKS WHICH SHOULD BE BOUGHT.


SHORT TERM TRADING RANGE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4960-5230, AS NIFTY WILL HAVE STIFF RESISTANCE AROUND 5230 LEVELS. HENCE LONG POSITIONS IF ANY SHOULD BE BOOKED AROUND 5200 LEVELS. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT NIFTY MAY NOT MOVE ABOVE 5200-5230 LEVELS, AND ONE CAN GO SHORT. NO DEFINITELY NOT....... NO ONE SHOULD GO SHORT JUST BOOK PROFITS AND SIT ON CASH, IF YOU HAVE BOUGHT STOCKS AT LOWER LEVELS LAST WEEK. 


FOR THIS WEEK(NIFTY MOVEMENT):
THE NO TRADING RANGE FOR THE NIFTY  IS 4980-5110. 
BUY CE5100 & CE5200: IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5110 FOR THE TARGET OF 5170-5230.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900: IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4980 FOR THE TARGET OF 4900-4800.


NOTE:AS THIS IS THE EXPIRY WEEK FOR THE JANUARY SERIES, THE OPTION DATA SUGGEST THAT NIFTY MAY SETTLE ANY WHERE NEAR 5200. YES NEAR 5200!!!!!!!!. HENCE SHORTING THE MARKETS ON EVERY RISE, AS MANY ANALYSTS ARE SUGGESTING MAY PROVE KILLER FOR SHORTERS AND BEARS. HOWEVER THE KEY EVENTS LIKE RBI POLICY AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT SHALL ALSO IMPACT. TO BE UPDATED KINDLY JOIN ON YAHOO MESSENGER ID" vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in" OR FACE BOOK ID: "Astrologer Vikas Srivastava, Allahabad".


STOCKS WHICH SHOULD BE TRADED THIS WEEK WITH HOLDING VIEW OF 45-60 DAYS:


1.IVRCL(43.80): BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 52++++
2.ING VYASYA BANK(315.60):BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 330-340-360++++
3.KIRLOSKAR OIL(139.05):BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 150-155++++(SOME POSITIVE NEWS FLOW IS EXPECTED SOON-MAY BE A BUY BACK)
4.BATA(586.35):BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 610-620++++
5.KAJARIA CERAMICS(111.35):BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF120-125-130+++
6.TIMKEN(184.00):BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 230-260 (BUY BACK NEWS MAY COME ANY TIME)




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Monday, January 16, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 16TH JANUARY 2012 to 20th JANUARY 2012

NOTE: NOW THE BLOG WILL BE UPDATED ON EVERY SUNDAY NIGHT ON REGULAR BASIS


INDIAN MARKETS RECOVERED FROM THE  LOWS OF DECEMBER AND GRADUALLY CONTINUED THE RISE GETTING CUES BOTH FROM DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL FACTORS.  LED BY A BROAD BASED RECOVERY, INDIA'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION REBOUNDED IN NOVEMBER 2011. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 5.9% IN NOVEMBER FROM A YEAR EARLIER, AFTER DECLINING BY A REVISED 4.7% LAST MONTH. FOOD INFLATION REMAINED IN THE NEGATIVE ZONE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK. FOOD INFLATION STOOD AT 2.9% FOR THE WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 31ST, 2011 AGAINST 3.36% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK, MAINLY DUE TO THE BASE EFFECT.
NIFTY ENDED AT 4866.00 SENSEX ENDED AT 16154.62 


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS TO REMAIN VOLATILE IN THIS WEEK AS S&P  HAS DOWNGRADED THE CREDIT RATINGS OF FRANCE, ITALY AND SEVEN OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ON 13TH JANUARY, 2012, WHICH CLEARLY SIGNIFIES THAT THE EUROPEAN WOES MAY NOT BE OVER SOON AND EASILY.  RBI MEET FOR REVIEW OF CREDIT POLICY ON 24TH JANUARY WILL HOLD THE KEY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE IIP AND INFLATION DATA BEFORE ANY FURTHER MOVE. THE CHANCES OF RATE CUT IN THIS POLICY MEET ARE VERY LESS. IN INDIAN CONTEXT ANY CORRECTION IN QUALITY STOCKS COULD BE USED MAKE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO. GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC FUND MANAGERS EXPECT MORE CORRECTION IN INDIAN MARKETS. SENSEX MAY TEST 13700 AND NIFTY AROUND 4000. BUT THE CORRECTION IN QUALITY STOCKS SHOULD BE USED TO BUILD A GOOD LONG TERM PORTFOLIO(18-30 MONTHS) IN A STAGGERED MANNER. IT MAY TAKE 7-8 MONTHS TO MAKE A BASE IN THE MARKETS. HENCE THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR 2012 SHALL BE GOOD FOR AN UP MOVE. 


FOR THIS WEEK: NIFTY IS FACING RESISTANCE AT 4920 AND TAKING SUPPORT AT 4800. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4866. HENCE THE NO TRADING ZONE FOR NIFTY IS 4800 TO 4920. ANY MOVE ABOVE 4920( FOR WHICH THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES) NIFTY WILL MOVE TO 4980-5050 AND SLIP BELOW 4800 WILL RESULT IN FALL TILL 4750 & 4640.
NOTE: CHARTS SHOW THAT NIFTY IS SET TO  MOVE HIGHER ABOVE 4920, HENCE A BULLISH VIEW SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4920 & 4800.


STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK: 
BUY CE4900 & CE5000: WHEN YOU FIND NIFTY MOVING AND/OR CLOSING ABOVE 4920 FOR THE TARGET OF 4980-5050 KEEPING 4800 AS STOP-LOSS.
BUY PE 4800 & PE4700: WHEN YOU FIND NIFTY MOVING AND/OR CLOSING BELOW 4800 FOR THE TARGET OF 4750-4640 KEEPING 4920 AS STOP-LOSS.


KIND ADVISE/SUGGESTION: DON'T ATTEMPT TO TRADE NIFTY OR NIFTY OPTIONS BETWEEN 4800-4920, ELSE YOU MAY LOOSE MONEY FOR TRADING THE VOLATILITY.


STOCKS: FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE ACCUMULATED FOR LONG TERM PORTFOLIO, HOWEVER BUYING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY IN STAGGERED MANNER IN 6-8 MONTHS BUYING PATTERN.
1. RALLIS
2. TRENT
3. GUJRAT FLOURO
4. PETRONET LNG
5. V-GUARD
6. S.KUMARS
7. ARVIND
8. COAL INDIA
9. VIP
10. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES.


FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD RISE IN THE SHORT TERM: 40-60 DAYS PERIOD DELIVERY:
1. NIRMA FOR THE TARGET OF 240++
2. GURAT FLUORO FOR THE TARGET OF 425-460++
3. PUNJAB CHEMICALS FOR THE TARGET OF 180+++
4. REDINGTON FOR THE TARGET OF 480+++
5. V-GUARD FOR THE TARGET OF 180+++
6. VIP INDUSTRIES FOR THE TARGET OF 120+++.


ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST THAT MARKETS WIL NOT BE GOOD THIS YEAR. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS. FEB & MARCH MONTHS ARE NOT VERY GOOD FOR THE MARKET PLAYERS. STAY AWAY FROM TRADING ACTIVITY. 




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.