FINANCIAL ASTRO VIKAS

WELCOME TO HINDU ASTROLOGY AND VEDAS. THE APPLICATION OF TOOLS OF VEDIC ASTROLOGY ARE MULTI FOLD AND DYNAMIC. ALL ACTIVITIES OF LIFE CONCERNED WITH THE MATTER, MATERIAL, SPIRIT, SPIRITUAL, LIVING AS WELL AS NON LIVING IS STUDIES AND PREDICTED, VERY WELL. ASHTAK-VARG, SHODASH-VARG, GOCHAR CHAKRA, ETC ARE USED TO PREDICT THE COURSE OF FINANCIAL AND COMMODITIES MARKET WITH CERTAIN LIMITATIONS THIS BLOG IS AN ATTEMPT TO VIEW THE INDIAN MARKETS UNDER ASTROLOGICAL RADAR.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 31ST OCTOBER TO 4TH NOVEMBER 2011

THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE IN THE MARKET AFTER THE HOLIDAYS AS IT SCALED UP IN MATCHING THE GLOBAL RALLY, LED BY US AND EUROPEAN MARKETS. HENCE GLOBAL CUES PLAYED IMPORTANT ROLE IN RISE IN MARKETS, ALSO RBI HIKED THE INTEREST RATE BY 25bps IN ITS MONETARY POLICY REVIEW MEET ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2011 MAKING REPO-RATE TO 8.50% AND REVERSE REPO TO 7.5% , WHILE BRINGING GDP FORECAST TO 7.6% FROM 8%, WHILE MAINTAINING INFLATION FORECAST OF 7% BY THE END OF MARCH 2012. RBI INDICATED THIS HIKE COULD BE A LAST RATE HIKE AS IT EXPECTS THE PRICES TO START COOLING FROM DECEMBER. ALSO IT DEREGULATED THE SAVINGS RATE OF BANKS WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT. ON THE GLOBAL ARENA , EU LEADERS AGREED ON A PLAN TO RESOLVE THE EURO-ZONE FINANCIAL CRISIS.

GOING FORWARD, INDIAN MARKETS MAY TRADE IN A BROAD RANGE WHERE STOCK SPECIFIC ACTION WILL BE SEEN. CORPORATE PERFORMANCE IN THE SECOND QUARTER SHALL BE THE FOCUS OF THE MARKET. GLOBAL CUES, WHERE THE FOMC MEETING ON 1ST & 2ND NOVEMBER, G20 MEETING SCHEDULED ON 3RD AND 4TH NOVEMBER, INDIA'S EXIM DATA FOR SEPTEMBER ON 1ST NOVEMBER, INDIA'S WEEKLY FOOD & FUEL INFLATION FOR THE WEEK ENDED ON OCTOBER 22, SHALL BE THE KEY EVENTS AND CUES TO WATCH FOR. INDEX BASED FRONT LINE STOCKS SHALL BE ON THE MOVEMENT THIS WEEK.

AFTER A LONG CONSOLIDATION IN THE RANGE OF 4700-5200 NIFTY GAVE A STRONG BREAKOUT RALLY LAST WEEK. NOW GOING UPSIDE NIFTY WILL HAVE VERY STRONG RESISTANCE IN THE RANGE OF 5420-5450. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 5450 THEN 5600-5650 SHALL BE THE NEXT LEVEL WHERE NIFTY MAY PAUSE TO CONSOLIDATE.

AS NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5220 AND 5322, SO THERE IS STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY MAY GO DOWN TO 5220 LEVELS TO FILL THE GAP IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HENCE BOOKING PROFIT AT THE CURRENT LEVEL IS ADVISABLE SO AS TO RE-ENTER AROUND 5220 LEVELS.

FOR THIS WEEK: SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY LIES AT 5320 AND RESISTANCE AT 5420. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5320 ON THE DOWN SIDE THEN IT MAY GO DOWN TO 5270-5220-5200, ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5420, THEN IT MAY INCH UP TO 5450-5540-5600 LEVELS.

STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK:
BUY PE 5400 & PE 5300:IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5320 TO BOOK PROFIT AROUND 5270-5220-5200 LEVELS KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5450(CLOSING BASIS).
BUY CE5400 & CE5500: IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5450(CLOSING BASIS)TO BOOK PROFIT AROUND 5540-5600 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5320.

NOTE: CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT NIFTY MAY MOVE DOWN FIRST THAN HIGHER FROM CMP AS NIFTY MAY MOVE DOWN TO FILL THE GAP CREATED LAST WEEK.

ASTROLOGICALLY: IN OCTOBER I HAD ANALYSED AND PREDICTED FOR A CORRECTION AND FALL DUE TO INTENSE PLANETARY CONFIGURATION TAKING PLACE IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER. HOWEVER AGAINST MY VIEW MARKET RAN FAST ON THE UPSIDE. AS SAID EARLIER, I MAINTAIN THE POSITIVE VIEW IN THE NOVEMBER, I BELIEVE THAT THE MARKETS SHALL WITNESS THE UPSIDE TILL 15TH NOVEMBER 2011. THEREAFTER MARKETS SHALL CORRECT AND AGAIN A DOWN TREND WILL BE NOTICED. HENCE I MAINTAIN MY VIEW OF WEAKNESS IN DECEMBER STARTING FROM NOVEMBER 15TH, 2011.

KEY DATES TO WATCH FOR IN US, INDIA & GLOBAL MARKETS FOR SHARP SWINGS/FALL: 1ST , 9TH, 17TH, 30TH NOVEMBER AND 1ST DECEMBER 2011.

THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. SO PLEASE DON'T TRADE TOTALLY DEPENDING ON ASTROLOGY. USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND CONSULT THE APPROPRIATE BEFORE ACTING.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Friday, October 28, 2011

IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION

WISH HAPPY & PROSPEROUS DEEPAVALI & BHAI DOOJ TO ALL THE VIEWERS, MEMBERS AND READERS.

AN UP TO-DATE REPORT OF THE MARKET WILL BE POSTED ON 30TH OCTOBER FOR THE SUBSEQUENT WEEK AND COMING MONTHS.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 24TH OCT-28TH OCT 2011

INDIAN MARKETS HAVE CORRECTED ALMOST 2% LAST WEEK AMID WEAK GLOBAL CUES AND MIXED EARNING NUMBERS FROM COMPANIES. INDIA'S INFLATION REMAINED THE CAUSE OF WORRY IN THE MARKET AND DIVISIONS BETWEEN FRANCE AND GERMANY OVER THE DEBT CRISIS AHEAD OF EU SUMMIT RESULTED IN WEAK SENTIMENT AND CAUTIOUS APPROACH. HENCE MARKET SLIPPED. NIFTY ENDED AT 5049.95 AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16785.64.

GOING FORWARD MARKET SHALL BE AFFECTED BY THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS, RBI POLICY ON 25TH-which may see another rate hike by 25bps AND CORPORATE EARNINGS. ANY THING ADVERSE FROM THE GLOBAL MARKETS SHALL CERTAINLY HIT THE MARKET SENTIMENT HERE ALSO. ELSE MARKETS TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE. NIFTY SHALL TRADE IN THE RANGE OF 4940-5230. BREAK OF THIS RANGE SHALL INVITE FRESH MOVE OF AT LEAST 150-200 POINTS.

NOW IN THE SHORT TERM THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5010-5170. BREAK OUT ABOVE 5170(CLOSING BASIS) SHALL MAKE NIFTY TO MOVE AROUND 5230 AND THEN TO 5320, HOWEVER BREAK DOWN BELOW 5010 SHALL SEE FRESH WAVE OF SELLING AND NIFTY MAY SLIP TO 4940 AND THEN TO 4800. HENCE A BROAD STOP-LOSS OF 5000-4940 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL LONGS. HOWEVER IF THERE ARE SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS AND NIFTY MOVES OR CLOSES ABOVE 5170 THEN ONE SHOULD NOT BE SHORT IN THE MARKETS AS NIFTY MAY SHOOT UP TO 5230-5270-5320 OR EVEN 5400, HENCE THOSE BEARISH IN THE MARKET SHOULD KEEP 5170 AS STRICT STOP-LOSS.

STRATEGY: BUY CE5100 & CE5200, IF NIFTY MOVES AND/OR CLOSES ABOVE 5170, FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 5230-5320.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900, IF NIFTY MOVES AND/OR CLOSES BELOW 5000-4940, FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 4800.

STOCKS TO WATCH & BUY FOR SHORT TERM:
1. DELTA CORP(100): MAY RISE SOON TO NEW HIGHS. MY SHORT TERM TARGET IS 140++++++. MUST BUY FOR LONG TERM AND FOR DEEPAVALI RISE.
2. CUB(44): MAY TOUCH 50-52++ SOON, MAY BE 15-20 DAYS............

ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETS DO NOT FAVOR THE UP MOVE, THERE MAY BE SLIP AND DOWN MOVE. HOWEVER IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO SEE HOW THE EVENTS SHAPE-UP AND ACT ACCORDINGLY, AS MY ANALYSIS MIGHT GO WRONG ALSO, SO WHY TO TAKE RISK.

Friday, October 21, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 21ST OCTOBER 2011

INDIAN MARKETS WITTINESS HEAVY SELLING AND DEEP CUT AROUND 100 POINTS IN NIFTY DUE TO GLOBAL MARKETS. ASIAN STOCKS SLID YESTERDAY WITH THE BENCHMARK REGIONAL INDEX HEADED TO ITS LOWEST CLOSE IN MORE THAN A WEEK, AMID UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EUROPEAN BAIL-OUT FUND TALKS AND AS THE US COMPANIES GREW MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMY. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5091.90, DOWN BY 47.25 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16936.89, DOWN BY 148.45 POINTS, WITH THE WEAK MARKET BREADTH. BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED IN RED TO THE TUNE OF NEARLY HALF A PERCENTAGE.

GOING FORWARD, THE EUROPEAN UNION SUMMIT THIS WEEKEND (Sunday, 23rd October, 2011) ON THE REGION'S DEBT CRISIS HOLD THE KEY OF MARKET DIRECTION. ALSO THE CREDIT POLICY MEET BY RBI ON 25TH OCTOBER 2011(TUESDAY), SHALL ALSO BE THE KEY TO INDIAN MARKETS.TILL THEN THE NIFTY SHALL BE RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 5170-4940. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL INVITE FRESH 150-200 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY.

IS IT TIME TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS(FOR BULLS)????

YES, IT IS. HOWEVER INVESTORS SHOULD BUY ON DIPS THE GOOD QUALITY STOCKS AND ACCUMULATE MORE, IF ALREADY HOLD.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS I HAVE ANALYSED ASTROLOGICALLY THAT MARKETS WILL TAKE DOWN WARD JOURNEY IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER, THE KEY EVENT LIES ON 23RD OCTOBER AND 25TH OCTOBER. THE PLANETARY CONFIGURATION SHOW A CUT IN INDICES IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER, HENCE AGGRESSIVE LONG POSITION SHOULD BE AVOIDED AND PORTFOLIO SHOULD BE HEDGED BUY BUYING PUT OPTIONS.

FOR SPECULATORS AND DAY TRADERS, OPTIONS OF NIFTY (EITHER CALL OR PUT) WILL BE SUGGESTED ONLY ON SUNDAY, 23RD OCTOBER. AS ALREADY SAID ITS TIME TO REMAIN OUT OF MARKET AND ONLY WHEN THERE IS ONE SIDED DIRECTION VISIBLE WE SHALL ATTEMPT TO TRADE IN NIFTY OPTIONS. HAD YOU BEEN TRADING FOR LAST 3-4 DAYS, YOU MIGHT HAVE TAPPED IN OPTIONS RESULTING IN LOSSES. SO BETTER WAIT TILL 23RD AND THEN TAKE A FRESH CALL.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 19TH OCTOBER 2011

ON WEAK US MARKET AND GLOBAL CUES INDIAN MARKETS FELL SHARPLY YESTERDAY. POOR PERFORMANCE BY TCS AND HCL TECH HURT THE SENTIMENTS. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5037.50 DOWN BY 80.75 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16748.29, DOWN BY 276.80 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS POOR AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE DOWN BY MORE THAN A PERCENTAGE POINT.

GOING FORWARD, INDIAN MARKETS WILL TAKE CUES FROM THE GLOBAL MARKETS AND ESPECIALLY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. YESTERDAY MARKETS OF THE WORLD TUMBLED AFTER THE STATEMENT OF GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER THAT EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS WON'T BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE CRISIS TOTALLY AT THE MEETING SCHEDULED TO BE HELD ON 23RD OCTOBER, 2011. DOMESTICALLY QUARTERLY RESULTS SHALL KEEP ON IMPACTING AND TRIGGERING THE STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES.
NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4940 & 5170.
IF NIFTY SLIPS BELOW 4940, THEN NIFTY MAY GO TO 4700-4650. ON THE OTHER SIDE IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5170 THEN 5230-5320 WILL BE THE TARGET. HENCE STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4940 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO ALL LONG POSITIONS.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY MAY TAKE SUPPORT AT 5010 AND RESISTANCE AT 5090. BREAK OF 5010 MAY PULL DOWN NIFTY TO 4970-4940, ON THE OTHER HAND ABOVE 5090, 5130 AND 5170 SHALL BE THE TARGET.

NO STOCKS ARE RECOMMENDED TODAY

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 18TH OCTOBER 2011

AFTER OPENING STRONG ON GLOBAL CUES MARKETS ENDED ON NEGATIVE NOTE, DUE TO PROFIT BOOKING IN HEAVY WEIGHTS LIKE RELIANCE, CAPITAL GOODS, POWER, PHARMA & TECHNOLOGY SHARES. HOWEVER BUYING WAS SEEN IN AUTO, FMCG, BANKING & REALITY SHARES WHICH WHICH LIMITED THE DOWN SLIP OF INDICES. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5118.25, DOWN 14.05 POINTS AND THE SENSEX CLOSED AT 17025.09, DOWN 57.60 POINTS.
MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED ALMOST FLAT, WITH NEGATIVE BIAS.

NOW THE KEY FOCUS WILL BE THE CUES COMING FROM EUROPE. THE DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE TILL THE EUROPEAN LEADER SUMMIT ON 23RD OCTOBER 2011, WHICH MAY GIVE A STRONG SOLUTION TO THE EURO-ZONE CRISIS. AMERICAN & EUROPEAN MARKETS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP ON THE SAME EXPECTATION AND IF THERE IS REALLY GOOD POSITIVE NEWS FROM EUROPE, THE WORLD WILL REJOICE AND RALLY IN ASIAN AND INDIAN MARKETS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER ANY ADVERSE SENTIMENT, IF DEVELOPED ON FALL OF EXPECTATIONS, MAY LEAD TO SEVERE JOLT TO THE WORLD MARKETS AND RESULTS COULD BE DEVASTATING ACROSS THE GLOBE.
HENCE ITS VERY VERY IMPORTANT TO SEE THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY EUROPE.
DOMESTICALLY CORPORATE RESULTS WILL KEEP ON TRICKLING IN AND THE STOCK ADJUSTMENTS WILL TAKE PLACE ACCORDING TO THE NUMBERS AND GUIDANCE OF THE COMPANIES. HENCE DOMESTICALLY THERE ARE NO MAJOR TRIGGERS FOR THE MARKET. IN ESSENCE SUNDAY THE 23RD OCTOBER WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF THE MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE. SO KEEP EYE ON IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TILL THE EVENT THE BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKETS SHALL BE 4900-5300.

NOTE THAT NIFTY HAS GIVEN A RALLY OF ALMOST 9.13%, FROM THE LOWS MADE ON 4TH OCTOBER 2011, AROUND 4728.30 IN LAST EIGHT TRADING SESSIONS. AS THERE IS A STRONG RESISTANCE IN THE RANGE OF 5110-5170, IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE ABOVE 5170 THEN WE MIGHT SEE RALLY TILL 5230 & 5330, HOWEVER BREAK OF 5110 SHALL PULL DOWN NIFTY TO 4940 LEVELS.
NOTE: SINCE IN THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM NIFTY SEEMS TO BE OVER BOUGHT( KINDLY ALSO CHECK THE TECHNICALS OF YOUR OWN) AS THE INDICATORS SHOW, NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO CORRECT TO THE LEVELS OF 5000-4940 LEVELS.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5080 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5080 THEN 5040 & 5000 SHALL BE THE SUPPORT, HOWEVER IF NIFTY MANAGES TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5170, DUE TO OTHER REASONS, THEN RALLY UP TO 5200 & 5230 WILL BE SEEN.
HENCE 5080 TO 5170 WILL BE NI TRADING ZONE. SHORT NIFTY BELOW 5080 AND BUY ABOVE 5170, KEEPING THE RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT AS STOP-LOSS TO THE POSITIONS ACCORDINGLY.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS ALEADY SAID SEVERAL TIMES, NOW AGAIN THE SAME READINGS. THIS WEEK WILL BE WEAK FRO MONDAY NOON TO THURSDAY NOON, WHERE THERE WILL BE SPIKES OF COVERING BUT TREND WILL BE RANGE BOUND TO DOWN WARDS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME BUYING/RECOVERY IN LACKLUSTER MARKET FROM THURSDAY(20TH OCTOBER) NOON TILL FRIDAY.

ASTROLOGICALLY ITS TIME TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND AVOID HEAVY BUYING IN CASH AND DERIVATIVES BOTH. IF ONE MAKES PORTFOLIO, THEN HEDGING COULD BE DONE WITH THE PUT OPTIONS.
I AM BEARISH IN THE MARKET INDICES, IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF THE OCTOBER, 2011 AND DECEMBER 2011. MAY BE THE OCTOBER 23RD EVENT, SHOW THE SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AND MAY TRIGGER A HUGE SELL-OFF. BUT THERE IS NO NEED OF PANIC.

THERE ARE 40% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION. SO KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR OWN ANALYSIS, JUDGEMENT, NEWS, ADVISER, COUNCILLOR, ETC AND DON'T RELY ON MY ANALYSIS AND VISION, IT MAY GO WRONG COMPLETELY. NO BODY KNOWS THE FUTURE, EXCEPT THE GOD!!!!!!

GOOD LUCK.............

Sunday, October 16, 2011

MARKETS AND YOUR INVESTMENT: A PERSPECTIVE

SO FAR WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THE WEAK MARKETS SINCE LAST DEEPAVALI DUE TO MANY GLOBAL AS WELL AS DOMESTIC REASONS. HOWEVER THE APATHY BY THE GOVERNMENT IN PLANNING AND POLICY LAGGARD, CONTINUOUS INCREASE OF INTEREST RATES BY RBI, RISING COMMODITY PRICES GLOBALLY, FINANCIAL CRISIS DUE TO RISING SOVEREIGN DEBT ESPECIALLY IN EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES, RISING DOMESTIC INFLATION, ETC ARE THE MANY REASONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE TO THE GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS INCLUDING INDIA. EVERY WEEK AND MONTH STARTS WITH A NEW HOPE THAT SOONER THE THINGS WILL SETTLE AND SECULAR BULL MARKET WILL RE-START IN INDIA. BULLS HAVE BEEN BAFFLING FOR LAST 11 MONTHS ON HOPES OF NEW HIGHS BUT MARKETS HAVE DISAPPOINTED ALL. ITS NOT THAT THE BEARS HAVE MADE MONEY BUT ALL HAVE LOST THE VALUE OF INVESTMENTS GRADUALLY OVER THIS PERIOD. ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE MARKETS HAVE TENDENCY AND HISTORY OF BEHAVING IN THE SIMILAR PATTERN AS THEY HAVE BEEN, HOWEVER DYNAMISM ADDS NEW FACES TO THE OLD PROBLEMS

SO WHAT ONE CAN DO IF THE SAME THINGS CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE MONTHS OR YEARS?????????

HERE COMES THE BASIC INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES, POLICIES AND DISCIPLINE TO PLAY VITAL ROLE IN YOUR DECISION MAKING AND PROFITABLE INVESTING.
1. ITS NOT VERY MUCH FRUITFUL TO SEE INDEX AND INVEST ON ITS ANALOGY. There are several stocks which have been rising for last 1 year. Take Exapmle of GUJRAT FLOURO. It was around Rs.160 eleven months back, however it has risen to 560 in this period and currently trading at 538. I have mentioned buying in this stock around 216-220-230-240(search my previous postings) for the target of 500-700-1000++ in 12 to 18 months(though I maintain my view on this).

Similarly RALLIS INDIA. It was around 120-130 a year back and has been constantly rising. I maintain my view of 250 in short term and 500++ in the medium to long term. A very good company of TATA Group.

On the other hand there are many other companies which have lost their market cap and value very significantly. Many companies suggest by me have not worked well in the last 11 months. Take example of SKUMAR NATION. I have suggested this company when it was trading around 85-90 with a price target of 150++. Unfortunately the company is trading around 40. Similarly ORCHID CHEM was being suggested with huge targets when it was around 280-300, however its is currently half of its value.

These stocks were suggested on the basis that markets will move higher and so will the stocks. However few stocks under-perform and others out-perform. Hence its not wise to invest on the basis of Indices.
LEARNING: JUST KEEP ON INVESTING IRRESPECTIVE OF INDEX AND ITS MOVEMENT. JUST ADD STOCKS, ON EVERY FALL OF 10% OR SO.

2. NEVER PUT YOUR MONEY IN A SINGLE TAKE: Money must be invested gradually on regularly interval rather than in just a single take. Many of my followers buy in a single stroke in a greed of getting more profits making themselves nervous and baffling when the prices correct. Either they have no fresh money to buy or make leveraged position, which is very very negative and not meant for Investor. Now an Investor turns to a short term trader and looses money.
LEARNING: HENCE YOU SHOULD INVEST SOME REGULAR MONEY, WHEN YOU SEE AN OPPORTUNITY IN THE STOCK, RATHER THAN OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET. PUT HUGE SUM ONLY WHEN YOU GET OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET(SAY ON 15%-20% CUT)

3. STOP TRADING AND EXPECTING GAINS IN THE SHORT TERM: The greatest limitation we all have is to think about the short term trading, speculation, day-trading, options, futures, derivatives, etc., etc., ....... These are killers. They eat your money and investment. TRADING IS BASICALLY ILLUSION. No one CAN MAKE WEALTH if he or she is in job of continuous trading habit. The big money is always made in investment of longer duration and very less churning, may be one or two in a year. I know many of my close friends, relatives, followers, who have bought many stocks on my suggestion and view, made little money or no money as they have traded in the stocks, which are meant for investment. They were either left with some marginal profits and few stocks of outperforming stocks, any many under-performing stocks and losses.
LEARNING: AVOID SEARCHING STOCKS TO GAIN IN SHORT TERM OR ANY MEANS WHICH MAY GIVE PROFITS. SEARCH FOR STOCKS WHICH COULD GIVE YOU WEALTH OVER LONGER PERIOD. AVOID WORKING ON TECHNICAL CALLS, TIPS, INFORMATION, RATHER GO WITH RELIABLE MARKET ANALYSTS AND OWN RESEARCH WORK.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD FOR A PERIOD OF 12-18-24 MONTHS:

1. RALLIS(174.00): STILL UNDERVALUED IN TERMS OF POTENTIALS. MY TARGET IS 500+++ WITH MINIMAL DOWN SIDE RISK. EVERY DIP WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY.

2. ITC(205.10): THIS STOCK WILL MAKE HUGE WEALTH FOR ITS INVESTORS. MY TARGET IS 450++++ IN 18-24 MONTHS.

3. PETRONET LNG(155.90): BUY THIS STOCK FOR AT LEAST 2-3 YEARS PERSPECTIVE. STOCK MAY OUTPERFORM THE MARKET. ANALYSTS PROJECT THE TARGET OF 400+++.

4. L&T(1407.80): THIS STOCK WILL MAKE HUGE WEALTH FOR ITS INVESTORS. MY TARGET IS 4500++ IN 18-24 MONTHS.

5. TITAN IND(218.10) & 6.GITANJALI GEMS(364.65): STILL UNDERVALUED IN TERMS OF POTENTIALS. MY TARGET FOR BOTH IS 500+++ WITH MINIMAL DOWN SIDE RISK. EVERY DIP WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY.

7. CANFIN HOME(97.10): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON EVERY DIP. TARGET IS AROUND 200-250++++ IN 18-24 MONTHS. THIS IS VERY CHEAP STOCK AVAILABLE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY STRONG. MUST BUY IN PORTFOLIO. MINIMAL OR NO DOWN SIDE RISK.

8. SHALIMAR PAINTS(503.65): BUY THIS STOCK TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHS. INVESTORS MAY GAIN HUGE ON THIS STOCK AS IT WILL UNVEIL HUGE VALUE IN TIME TO COME. DON'T FORGET TO PAINT YOUR HOUSE WITH SHALIMAR PAINTS IN THIS FESTIVE SEASON. MY TARGET IS AROUND 1200+++.

9. GUJRAT FLOURO(538.10): BUY THIS STOCK TO NEVER SELL. GOLD MINE!!!!!!!! MAY GIVE HUGE VALUE GOING FORWARD. MY 1ST TARGET IS AROUND 1000++.

10. PILANI INVESTMENT(1700-2000): CURRENTLY LISTED IN DELHI STOCK EXCHANGE, THIS SHARE WILL BE LISTED IN BSE/NSE ON DEEPAVALI MUHURT TRADING AROUND 2500-3000, WHICH MAY SEE HUGE UNLOCK IN VALUE FOR ITS INVESTORS. A BIRLA GROUP COMPANY HAS STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND MAY FETCH 7500-10000+++ FOR ITS INVESTORS. BUY & HOLD.

Friday, October 14, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 14TH OCTOBER 2011

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED IN POSITIVE HOWEVER LATER SLIPPED IN THE RED. AFTERNOON SESSION SAW A SLACK TRADE WITH TRADERS BOOKING PROFIT. INDICES SAW BOTH POSITIVE & NEGATIVE SWINGS SEVERAL TIMES. WEAK GLOBAL CUES COMING FROM EUROPE MADE THE MARKET CLOSE IN RED. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5077.85, DOWN 21.55 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16883.92, DOWN 74.47 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED POSITIVELY FLAT. PROFIT BOOKING WAS WITNESSED IN ALL SECTORS EXCEPT BANKING, I.T & REALITY.

GOING FORWARD, RBI'S POLICY AND GLOBAL CUES REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE MARKET. ALSO CORPORATE RESULTS AND CURRENCY RATE(Rs/$) SHALL BE THE KEY PARAMETERS TO WATCH FOR MARKET DIRECTION. SINCE POOR IIP DATA 4.1%, DESPITE LOWER BASE, SHOWS THAT THE RBI'S POLICY HAS MADE THE GROWTH TO SLOWDOWN, CUES ARE COMING IN THAT RBI MIGHT PAUSE THIS TIME AS THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF INFLATION TOPPING OUT, HOWEVER IT MAY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TILL RBI POLICY IS OUT SHALL BE 4840-5230. CLEARLY THE MARKETS MAY INCH HIGHER TO 5230-5330 SOON.

NIFTY HAS CLOSED IN NEGATIVE TODAY, GOING FORWARD THE SUPPORT STANDS AT 5000 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. CURRENTLY NIFTY IS IN UPTREND IN TERMS OF THE 20 DMA LIES AROUND 4970 AND 40 DMA AROUND 5030, HENCE FOR MARKET TO BECOME WEAK OR GO DOWN NIFTY WILL HAVE TO BREAK 5030 FIRST AND THEN 4970 ALSO, IT WILL BE WEAK AND THE CURRENT RALLY WILL TERMINATE. HOWEVER SHORTS WILL BE GOOD ONLY BELOW 4940. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 5230 A SHORT TERM UPSWING MAY EXTEND TO 5340-5400 ALSO. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE LEVELS ARE TECHNICAL GUIDANCE, IT DOESN'T MEANS THAT NIFTY WILL GO TO 5400 LEVELS, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN THE MIND, WHILE ENTERING IN ANY LONG OR SHORT POSITION.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5020 AND RESISTANCE AT 5110. TRADE SHORT OR LONG IF THE NIFTY BREACHES THE LEVELS.

ASTROLOGICALLY: KINDLY NOTE THAT MY VIEW OF PLANETS AND MARKET STILL REMAINS THE SAME. WE MIGHT SEE SOME GLOBAL TREMORS IN THE LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER OR IN DECEMBER. THERE COULD BE A PANIC LIKE SITUATION IN ASIAN MARKETS. HENCE GREAT DEAL OF CAUTION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MAY BE THE MARKET MAY GIVE GOOD ENTERING OPPORTUNITY LATER.

THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, HENCE USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND JUDGEMENT AND CONSULT YOUR ADVISER/CONSULTANT BEFORE ACTING ON MY VIEWS.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 13TH OCTOBER 2011

A STRONG RALLY WAS SEEN AFTER THE INFOSYS RESULTS AND POOR THAN EXPECTED IIP DATA AT 4.1%FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2011. AS SUGGESTED NIFTY RALLIED ABOVE 5020 TO TOUCH 5110. ALL ROUND BUYING WAS SEEN IN I.T., CAPITAL GOODS, BANKING ETC. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5099.40, UP BY 125.05 POINTS, AFTER TOUCHING THE TOP OF 5109.80, JUST BELOW THE RESISTANCE LEVEL OF 5110. SENSEX CLOSED AT 16958.39, UP BY 421.92 POINTS. IN ALL MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE CLOSED IN GREEN BY MORE THAN A PERCENTAGE. MARKET RALLIED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE POOR IIP DATA SHOWS THAT THE IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS RATE HIKES HAVE NOW STARTED BEING FELT IN THE ECONOMY AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CALL FOR HALT IN THE INTEREST RATE HIKE IN NEXT POLICY MEET OF RBI ON OCTOBER 25TH, 2011.

GOING FORWARD, NIFTY MIGHT TEST 5120-5170 WHERE THERE IS STRONG RESISTANCE. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CONTINUE ABOVE 5170 THEN 5230 AND 5330 MAY BE THE NEXT TARGET. BUT ONE MUST NOTE THAT IF THE CUES ARE DISTURBING THEN NIFTY MIGHT TAKE RESISTANCE AT 5230 LEVELS. HENCE KEEP EYE ON THE RESISTANCE LEVELS.
ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN 4970-4950 THEN THE CURRENT RALLY WOULD TERMINATE AND THEN NIFTY WILL TAKE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 4800, WHICH IS THE LEVEL TO GO SHORT. HENCE NOW ALL LONGS SHOULD BE KEPT WITH A STOP-LOSS OF 4970-50.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5060 AND RESISTANCE AT 5110. IF NIFTY HOLDS ABOVE 5110 THEN 5170 AND 5230 WILL BE SEEN AND FAILING TO HOLD 5060 WILL RESULT IN FALL TILL 5020 AND THEN TO 4970.

MARKET VIEW FOR 12TH OCTOBER 2011

MARKET MOVED IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE AFTER THE TWO SESSIONS OF STRONG UP MOVE IT PAUSED AND STARTED CONSOLIDATING. SENSEX WENT HIGH OF 16774.12 AND CLOSED AT 16536.47, DOWN 20.76 AND NIFTY WENT HIGH OF 5045.10 HOWEVER CLOSED DOWN 5.25 AT 4974.35. TRADERS BOOKED PROFIT AHEAD OF INFOSYS Q2 RESULTS AND IIP DATA, SCHEDULED ON WEDNESDAY.

GOING FORWARD, IF INFOSYS DELIVERS GOOD RESULT AND GUIDANCE THEN THE MARKET MAY SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT COVERING AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5170-5200 ZONE. IF THE IIP DATA IS STRONG, INFOSYS GIVES GOOD GUIDANCE AND INFLATION FIGURE REMAINS ALARMING( DATA ON 14TH OCT), THEN RBI MAY CONSIDER HIKING REPO RATE BY 25bps ON ITS NEXT POLICY MEET, SCHEDULED ON OCTOBER 25TH, 2011, ELSE THERE MIGHT BE PAUSE IF THE INFLATION FIGURE SHOWS THE INITIAL SIGNS OF COOLING. HENCE IN ALL THERE WILL BE A CRUCIAL 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS AND MARKETS MEY BEHAVE ON BOTH DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES. VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED TO SHOW ITS DRAMA. NONETHELESS ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT RALLY IS SHORT COVERING AND MIGHT LOOSED STEAM ANY TIME IF THE POOR CUES START DROPPING IN.

AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 4728.30 ON OCTOBER 3 NIFTY HAS GIVEN A RALLY OF ALMOST 7.98% IN JUST FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. HENCE NIFTY MAY CONSOLIDATE IN THE RANGE OF 4800-5110. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4800 ON THE DOWN SIDE THEN IT MAY FALL TO 4700-4650 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MANAGES TO BREAK AND CLOSE ABOVE 5110 THEN 5170-5230 WILL BE THE SHORT TERM TARGET.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4940 AND STRONG RESISTANCE AT 5020. IF NIFTY MOVES/CLOSES ABOVE 5020 THEN NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5065-5110 SIMILARLY IF NIFTY BREAKS 4940 THEN IT MAY FALL TO 4900-4860.

TO MY VIEW: ONE SHOULD WAIT FOR NIFTY TO TOUCH 5170-5230, AS THE DATA & RESULTS MAY BRING STRENGTH & SENTIMENT FOR BULLS SO WAIT AND BUY PUTs WHEN NIFTY TOUCHES 5170-5230 AND PROFITS WILL BE MADE WHEN NIFTY SLIPS FROM RESISTANCE.

ONE MORE STOCK WHICH IS ADDED, ONCE AGAIN IN MY LOVE LIST IS TTK PRESTIGE. BUY THIS STOCK ON CMP(2851.60) OR ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 3250-3300-3500.

I am worried about the Global Economy and Markets in months to come.
Interesting Article one can read:http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/ern390_tallman.pdf

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 11TH OCTOBER 2011

ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, WE SAW A STRONG MARKET YESTERDAY, WHERE HEAVY WEIGHTS LIKE RELIANCE, ONGC, INFOSYS PARTICIPATED AND INDICES SAW ANOTHER SHORT COVERING RALLY. NIFTY ENDED AT 4979.60, UP BY 91.55 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16557.23, UP BY 324.69 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE UP BY 1.36% & 0.97% RESPECTIVELY.

GOING FORWARD, Q2 RESULTS, WHERE PERFORMANCE AND GUIDANCE BY THE INDIAN CORPORATES, SHALL GUIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. INFOSYS WILL DELIVER ITS RESULT ON 12TH OCT, WEDNESDAY, ALSO THE AUGUST IIP DATA ON 12TH OCTOBER, INFLATION NUMBERS ON 14TH OCTOBER, WILL PROVIDE VITAL CUES FOR THE RBI's ACTION IN HALF YEAR MONETARY POLICY REVIEW, SCHEDULED ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2011.
ALSO THE GLOBAL CUES SHALL KEEP ON PLAYING ON THE SWINGS OF MARKET FROM TIME TO TIME AS PER IMPORTANCE AND SIGNIFICANCE.
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY POSITIVE NEWS DOMESTICALLY WILL PROVIDE THE SHORT TERM SUPPORT AND PUSH TO THE MARKET, GLOBAL CUES, WHICH REMAINS THE PRIME FOCUS FOR FIIs, MAY WIPE OFF THE SHORT LIVED CHEER, IF ANY.
ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THERE REMAINS THE DOWN SIDE RISK IN THE MARKET AND RALLY IN NIFTY FOR LAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS SHALL BE SHORT LIVED AND INDICES MAY SINK ON ANY FRESH GLOBAL TREMORS. HENCE CAUTION IS ADVISED IN THE NEAR TERM.

COMING ON TECHNICALS: NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5060 AND 5110 ON 22ND SEPTEMBER, 2011. AS SAID YESTERDAY, IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 4950 THERE COULD BE 200 POINTS MOVE, NIFTY CLOSED AT 4979.60 SHOWS THAT THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES THAT NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO FILL THE GAP AND MOVE HIGHER UP TO 5110. ANY LONG CREATED IN NIFTY/STOCKS SHOULD BE HELD WITH THE STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4800. BREACH OF 4800 ON THE DOWN SIDE WILL TERMINATE THE CURRENT UP-SWING AND THEN NIFTY MAY RETEST 4750-4650 IN NO TIME, AS THE SENTIMENT IS CAUTIOUS.

STRATEGY: BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE4900 & CE5000) KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4800 OR ELSE WAIT FOR NIFTY TO MOVE HIGHER AROUND 5100-5110, TO BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE5100 & PE5000), IN ANTICIPATION OF FALL FROM THESE LEVELS KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5170 ON CLOSING BASIS.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4940 AND RESISTANCE AT 5020. BREAK OF 4940 SHALL FORCE NIFTY TO TEST 4900 & 4860. HOWEVER SUSTENANCE ABOVE 5020 SHALL TAKE NIFTY TO 5070-5110.
IN THIS MANNER: 4940-5020 IS NO TRADING ZONE, BUY CE5000 & CE5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5020 KEEPING 4940 AS STOP-LOSS AND BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 4940, KEEPING 5020 AS STOP-LOSS.

I DON'T CONSIDER FIT TO GIVE ANY STOCK SPECIFIC CALL TODAY.

ASTROLOGICALLY: I SEE A MAJOR CHAOTIC AND POOR DAYS IN THE WORLD MARKETS ON 13TH, 17TH AND LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER, BETWEEN 20TH-30TH OCTOBER .
PERSONALLY, I AM BEARISH ON INDICES.

THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. HENCE CONSULT THE ELIGIBLE, SUITABLE AND COMPETENT PERSON, OR USE YOUR OWN WISDOM BEFORE ACTING ON MY VIEWS.

Monday, October 10, 2011

ASTROLOGICAL VIEW OF THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK 10TH OCT 2011 TO 14TH OCT 2011

IMPORTANT DATE(S) IN INDIA'S HISTORY REMARKABLE TO MAKE THE CHART ARE 15TH AUGUST 2011 AND 26TH JANUARY 1950 AT 12 HRS NOON AT DELHI AND ANOTHER IMPORTANT DATE IS THE DATE OF INCORPORATION OF NSE(NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE), i.e., 27TH NOVEMBER 1992 AT 12.00 HRS(NOON) AT MUMBAI.

TAKING THE CHART OF NSE, WHICH SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE A POOR & UNCERTAIN PERFORMANCE OF INDICES IN OCTOBER & DECEMBER. IN FACT THE ENTIRE DASA OF SUN STARTING FROM 2008 TO 2014 WILL BE TROUBLESOME AND WILL NOT GIVE MUCH VALUE TO ITS PARTICIPANTS EXCEPT SOME ANTHRA OF MERCURY & VENUS (MARCH 2012 TO MARCH 2014).

HOWEVER EMPHASIS SHOULD BE GIVEN MORE TO TRANSIT OF JUPITER (IN ITS RETROGRADE MOTION) IN KETU'S STAR(Aries 13deg 20min- Aries 00deg 00min) FROM 13TH OCTOBER 2011 TILL 25TH DEC 2011, WHICH SHALL SHOCK THE MARKETS AND MOVE THE INDICES IN SUCH A MANNER WHICH MAY MAKE TRADERS LOOSE AND NUMB (KETHU IN 4TH HOUSE, HOUSE OF NEGATION TO 5TH HOUSE, WHICH DENOTES CHEER IN PARTICIPANTS, HENCE THERE WILL BE GLOOM AND PANIC.). THERE WILL BE DEVASTATING FINANCIAL MARKETS TURMOIL IN THE WORLD. MORE OVER JUPITER IN TRANSIT WILL ALSO BE NEGATIVE WITH MARS AND SATURN OF NATAL CHART OF NSE. TRANSITING JUPITER IS IN 8TH FROM SUN AND MERCURY, WILL MAKE THE SITUATION WORST, ALSO SATURN COMING TO LIBRA WILL NOT BE GOOD AT ALL. I SEE WEAK OCTOBER AND DECEMBER. NOVEMBER WILL BE RELATIVELY GOOD MONTH, WHERE SLIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN.

HOW SHOULD YOU ACT???????:

ONE CAN BUY PUT OPTIONS AND PICK THE STOCKS, VERY SELECTIVE STOCKS, ON EVERY FALL OF 5%-7% IN STOCKS.

IN THIS WEEK NIFTY WILL BE RANGE BOUND AND THERE WILL BE SUDDEN SHARP RALLIES OF SHORT COVERING ( AS WE HAVE SEEN ON 7TH OCT), HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE MARKET WILL REMAIN DOWN. RANGE WILL BE 4750-4950 BREAK ON EITHER SIDE WILL BRING FRESH 200 POINTS MOVE ON EITHER SIDE.

FOR OCTOBER: NIFTY MAY SEE 4500 ANY TIME AROUND OR AFTER 3RD WEEK OF OCTOBER. IT SEEMS THAT LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER 20TH TO 28TH WILL BE VERY VERY CRUCIAL FOR THE INTERNATIONAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS. THERE COULD BE A GOOD FALL IN INDICES AND ERODE MUCH VALUE OF INVESTMENT IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES. HENCE DON'T BUY IN LEVERAGED POSITION AND HOLD SOME CASH ALSO, SO THAT YOU CAN BUY WHEN NIFTY BREAKS THE LOWS TO FORM NEW LOWS.

Friday, October 7, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 7TH OCTOBER 2011

I WISH HAPPY DUSSEHRA TO ALL THE READERS, INVESTORS, TRADERS AND MEMBERS OF THIS BLOG.

MARKET VIEW FOR 5TH OCT 2011

MY VIEW FOR MARKET AND NIFTY REMAINS THE SAME. BUY SELECTIVE STOCKS ON EVERY DIP, AS WE CAN SEE MORE CAPITULATION GOING FORWARD, THIS COULD GIVE OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE QUALITY STOCKS.

FOLLOWING IS THE LIST OF SHARES ONE SHOULD BUY IN STAGGERED MANNER:

1. RALLIS(178.35): THIS SHARES HAS NOT SEEN A SINGLE RUPEE FALL. ONE WAY THE STOCK IS OUT-PERFORMER. ANY DIP OR CUT SHALL BE A VERY GOOD ENTER OPPORTUNITY. MY TARGET FOR THE SHORT TERM IS 250+. HOLD FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM STOCK WILL SEE 1000++. ITS A MULTI-BAGGER. MUST BUY

2. PIRAMAL GLASS(122.55): THIS SHARE HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME FALL FROM 140 LEVELS. ITS WORTH BUYING ON EVERY DIP. MY SHORT TERM TARGET IS 150++HOLD FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM STOCK WILL SEE 500++. ITS A MULTI-BAGGER. MUST BUY.

3. GUJRAT FLOURO CARBON(522.60): I HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDING THIS STOCK FROM LAST YEAR WHEN IT WAS AROUND 220-212. (SEARCH GUJRAT FLOURO IN PREVIOUS POSTINGS). I HAVE RECOMMENDED FOR THE TARGET OF 500, WHICH IS ALREADY BEING ACHIEVED. NOW BUY THIS STOCK FOR THE TARGET OF 700+++ IN SHORT TERM AND 1200 BY NEXT 12 MONTHS.

4. INGERSOLL-RAND(492.10): BUY BUY & BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 1000 VERY SOON. THERE MAY BE NEWS OF BUY BACK. I HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDING THIS STOCK FOR MONTHS. NOW TIME HAS COME TO RE-ENTER THIS STOCK. THIS A ALSO A MULTI-BAGGER. HOLD FOR THE TARGET OF 2000+++++.

NOTE: I SHALL TRY TO BRING MORE MULTI-BAGGER STOCKS, AS THE MARKET MAY BOTTOM IN THE NEAR TERM, IT WILL BE EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY. THOUGH I HAVE LITTLE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THESE STOCKS, THOUGH MANY ANALYSTS HAVE RECOMMENDED.
I HAVE STUDIES THE ASTROLOGICAL CHARTS OF THESE STOCKS AND THEY HAVE VERY BRIGHT FUTURE. BELIEVE IT OR NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE IS 20% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE STOCKS ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, HENCE CONSULT YOUR ADVISORS/INVESTMENT MANAGER OR CONSULTANT AND USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND ANALYSIS ALSO.

I & MY FAMILY OWN(S) ALL OR SOME OF THE ABOVE STOCKS IN LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

BROAD MARKET VIEW & FOR NEXT 2-3 SESSIONS FROM 4TH OCTOBER 2011

FINALLY INDIAN ECONOMY HAS BEEN STARTED DE-RATED BY FITCH RATINGS. ITS'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS WAS VERY MUCH EXPECTED AS RBI HAS CONTINUOUSLY HIKED THE INTEREST RATES SINCE LAST YEAR AND NOW ITS EFFECTS COULD BE SEEN. ALSO, RISING INFLATION, SHRINKING CORPORATE MARGINS, FALL IN THE VALUE OF RUPEE IN TERMS OF DOLLAR, NO MAJOR POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT BY GOVERNMENT, POLITICAL CHAOS AND APATHETIC ATTITUDE OF THE GOVERNMENT, GLOBAL SLOW DOWN, NEAR TERM VISIBILITY OF RECESSION IN EUROPE AND AMERICA, SOVEREIGN DEFAULT IN MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE THE MAIN ISSUES AND CAUSE OF CONCERN TO THE INVESTORS.

DO U EXPECT INDIAN MARKETS TO HOST A FLAG ??????

DO U THINK THAT EVERY THING WILL BE ALL RIGHT BY NEXT FEW DAYS???

WILL FIIs START PUMPING MONEY AS THEY STILL BELIEVE IN INDIA GROWTH STORY, WHERE THE SITUATION IS DETERIORATING GRADUALLY AND GOVERNMENT IS IN HIBERNATION?

IF YOU ASK THESE QUESTION "With an open Mind", YOU WILL GET ONLY ONE ASNWER---- "NO I DON'T THINK THAT INDIAN MARKETS WILL OUT PERFORM OR GO TO MAKE NEW TOP IN NEAR FUTURE"

HOWEVER YOU MUST CONSIDER THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN ALSO. .....

AS THE STOCK MARKET ANTICIPATES THE OUTLOOK OF NEXT TWO QUARTERS, THE GLOBAL & DOMESTIC HEADWINDS WILL CERTAINLY BEHIND US AND ON EVERY PASSING DAY, WE ARE PRICING AND DIGESTING THE NEGATIVITY OF THE POOR MACRO FACTORS.

HENCE INDIAN MARKETS, OR EVEN THE GLOBAL MARKETS MAY MAKE BOTTOM ( AT LEAST INTERIM ) AND PAUSE TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE GIVING THE FRESH BREAKOUT OR BREAK DOWN.

TO ME IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE APPROACHING TOWARDS THE END PART OF FALL IN MARKETS STARTED AFTER DEEPAVALI LAST YEAR IN THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER, 2010.

MAY BE ANYWHERE AROUND 4650-4500 OR EVEN 4700 MAY BE THE INTERIM BASE OF THE MARKET. FRANKLY SPEAKING I DON'T BELIEVE 4300-4000-3800-3500 ON NIFTY. THIS IS ALL TECHNICAL NEWS AND NO FUNDAMENTALS HAVE BEEN TO THIS. UNTILL AND UNLESS THERE IS SOME THING VERY VERY GRAVE AND POOR , LIKE FAILURE OF ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, CHAOTIC POLITICAL INSTABILITY MASSIVE GLOBAL RISK AVERSION, NIFTY IS NOT LIKELY TO GO MUCH BELOW 4650-4700.

HENCE THE WISDOM SAYS THAT START BUYING NOW IF YOU GET THE DIP. THE BUYING MUST BE DONE ONLY FOR HOLDING AT LEAST 4-6-10 MONTHS, AND NOT FOR 15-25 DAYS OR SHORT TERM. ONE CAN CHOOSE THE QUALITY STOCKS FROM THE LIST MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES OR WHAT EVER YOUR WISH LIST.

ITS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE COULD BE OR PROBABLY, LAST CUT OR DIP IN MARKET IN NEAR FUTURE AND AS SOON AS THE GLOBAL FACTORS APPROACH VISIBLE STABILITY, THERE WOULD BE SHARP BOUNCE BACK TO 5400-5600!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THOSE WHO STILL WAIT FOR LOWER AND LOWER MARKET AND MORE CHEAP RATES MIGHT NOT GET OPPORTUNITY.

IF THE BULLS HAVE HARD LUCK, FEW MORE MONTHS OF STRUGGLE COULD BE SEEN , HOWEVER IT SEEMS THAT DAYS OF PAIN ARE VERY SHORT NOW.

THIS IS THE CHANGE IN MY VIEW, FROM LAST POSTING, BUT I DON'T DENY THAT THERE WILL BE NO BAD EVENTS IN INDIA. THERE COULD BE MUCH MUCH PROBLEMS, BUT MARKET WILL START ANTICIPATING FOR NEXT SIX MONTHS (AFTER 2ND QUARTER'S RESULTS STARTING 10TH/12TH OCT) AND THIS WILL BE THE KEY.

IT SEEMS THAT MARKETS MAY FORM INTERIM BASE AROUND 10TH-14TH OCT OR AROUND 20TH-24TH OCT.

HENCE BUY AND HOLD

FOR TODAY & NEXT FEW SESSIONS: ONE SHOULD BUY CALLS IF YOU GET 4750-4700 IN NIFTY. THERE WILL BE BOUNCE BACK TO 4880-4950-5000 LEVELS. BUY NIFTY CALLs ( CE4800 & CE4900) ON DIP OR GAP DOWN OPENING.

ASTROLOGICALLY: INDIAN MARKETS HAVE BEEN RESPONDING TO THE SYSTEM WHICH I FOLLOW IN ASHTAKVARGA. 3RD AND 4TH OCTOBER HAS TO BE POOR AND NEGATIVE BUT U.S WILL BOUNCE BACK, WHICH SHALL SEE SHARP BOUNCE IN INDIAN MARKETS TOO. HENCE 5TH, 6TH OR 7TH COULD SEE UP SIDE.

KINDLY NOTE THAT THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND OVERALL MARKET VIEW, HENCE USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND APPLY YOUR OWN STRATEGY.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 3RD OCT 2011 TO 7TH OCT 2011

ON THE VERY FIRST DAY OF THE OCTOBER SERIES MARKET STARTED ON THE WEAK NOTE WHICH DRAGGED NIFTY BELOW 4950, WHICH HAD DECENT RECOVERY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE SEPTEMBER SERIES, WHICH ENDED ABOVE 5000 MARK, BEYOND THE EXPECTATION OF THE BEARS BUT ON FRIDAY THE 30TH SEPTEMBER MARKET SAW A HEAVY SELL-OFF IN THE ADAG PACK DRIVEN BY CBI INVESTIGATION IN 2G SCAM ABOUT THE ANIL AMBANI BEING PUT UNDER THE SCANNER. ALSO THE BLEAK GLOBAL MARKETS, DISPLEASED BY THE BAILOUT PACKAGE APPROVED BY THE GERMAN PARLIAMENT, PUT THE SELLING SENTIMENTS IN INDIAN MARKETS. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4943.25, DOWN 72.20 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16453.76, DOWN 244.31. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN MORE THAN HALF PERCENTAGE POINTS. ALL OTHER SECTORAL INDICES CLOSED INTO RED EXCEPT CONSUMER DURABLE.
IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT A NEW MINES BILL THAT PROVIDES FOR SHARING OF PROFITS & ROYALTY WITH THE PROJECT AFFECTED PEOPLE HAS BEEN CLEARED BY CABINET AND LIKELY TO BE TABLED IN WINTER SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT. COAL INDIA, GMDC, ETC LOST MORE THAN 5% ON THIS MOVE.

GOING FORWARD MARKET SHALL WATCH OUT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR EVENTS AND DATA:

1. ECB MEET ON 6TH OCT ON EXPECTATION OF CUT AT LEAST 25bps IN BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE TO 1.5%.

2. MONTHLY SALES AND DISPATCH NUMBERS FOR AUTO AND CEMENT SECTOR.

3. WEEKLY INFLATION NUMBERS ON FOOD, FUEL AND PRIMARY ARTICLES TO BE RELEASED ON FRIDAY-7TH OCTOBER ( IN PLACE OF THURSDAY AS ITS A HOLIDAY ON ACCOUNT OF DUSHERRA).

4. SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START DROPPING IN BY THE 2ND WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4750-5200, BREAK OF EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING AT LEAST 200-300 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY. THE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER REMAINS GRIM AND MURKY. THERE IS NO MAJOR POSITIVE TRIGGER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE WHICH MIGHT HELP INDIAN MARKETS TO START MOVING ABOVE 5200, HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT MARKETS WILL LOOSE STEAM IF THE CORPORATE PERFORMANCE COMES OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. REGARDING THE INTEREST RATE, STREET IS DIVIDED IN THE HALF ABOUT ITS PEAKING OFF. HENCE TO CONCLUDE THE MARKET OUTLOOK REMAINS WEAK AND PESSIMISTIC, DEPENDENT ON GLOBAL CUES AND DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN POLITICS AND ECONOMIC FRONT.

ANALYST BELIEVE THAT MARKET MAY TEST ITS RECENT LOWS AND MAY MOVE BELOW IT.4500-4400 REMAINS THE STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET IF 4750 IS BROKEN. BUYING SHOULD BE INITIATED AROUND 4800-4750 FOR AT LEAST 20%-25% OF CAPITAL TO BE DEPLOYED.

FOR TODAY: MAJOR SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET REMAINS 4900-4850 AND RESISTANCE IS AT 4990-5020.

WEEKLY STRATEGY 1:
BUY NIFTY PUTs(PE 5000 & PE4900) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 4900 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4990

BUY NIFTY CALLs(CE5000 & CE5100) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4990 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4900.

WEEKLY STRATEGY 2:
KEEP ON BUYING NIFTY PUTs(PE 5000, PE4900, PE4800) IF NIFTY BREAK OUT AND REACHES AROUND 5170 OR BREAKS BELOW 4900. NIFTY SHALL WITNESS WEAKNESS BUY THE 3RD AND 4TH WEEK OF OCTOBER.

NEWS BASED STOCKS: BUY IN THE FOLLOWING STOCKS FOR AT LEAST 6-9 MONTHS HOLDING PERIOD. ALSO ACCUMULATE WHEN NIFTY DIPS SHARPLY TOWARDS THE LOWS IN OCT.

1. TATAGLOBAL(85.55): BUY ON EVERY DIP FOR THE TARGET OF 125++++. A GOOD BUY IN DELIVERY.

2.KEC INTERNATIONAL(59.70):BUY ON EVERY DIP FOR THE TARGET OF 90++++. A GOOD BUY IN DELIVERY.

3.ARVIND LTD(98.30):BUY ON EVERY DIP FOR THE TARGET OF 150++++. A GOOD BUY IN DELIVERY.

4.VIP INDUSTRIES(901.65): ACCUMULATE THIS SCRIPT ON EVERY DIP. NEXT YEAR IT WILL BE A STAR PERFORMER. TARGET IS AROUND 2500+++ IN 9-12 MONTHS. HENCE BUY ON EVERY DIP AND FORGET WHAT TECHNICAL ANALYSTS SAY ABOUT THIS SCRIPT.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID LAST WEEK ALSO, ASTROLOGICALLY 3RD AND 4TH OCTOBER SHALL BE WEAK. BUT U.S MARKETS COULD SEE REBOUND ON 3RD OCTOBER (MONDAY NIGHT) SO KEEP ON BOOKING PROFITS IN PUTs AND CALLs WHERE EVERY YOU GET IT. BY NEXT WEEK 10TH-11TH & 12TH OCTOBER LOOKS POOR FOR BOTH U.S AND INDIAN MARKETS, WHERE U.S COULD SEE NEW LOWS AND SO ALSO WE CAN MOVE BELOW 4750.

NEXT IMPORTANT CONCENTRATION OF PLANETS (AS PER ASHTAKVARGA SYSTEM) COULD COME AROUND 21ST OCT-24TH OCT. THIS WILL BE VERY POOR FOR ALL GLOBAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS. THIS PHASE COULD REALLY SHOW INDIAN MARKETS VERY VERY POOR PERFORMANCE.

KINDLY NOTE THAT I HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES THAT OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER IS NOT GOOD FOR INDIA. THERE COULD BE NATURAL CALAMITIES, TERRORIST ACTIVITIES, POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND LOT OF CHAOS IN ECONOMY HENCE A VERY CAUTIOUS APPROACH IS NEEDED. HOWEVER THIS PERIOD MIGHT GIVE US A GOOD ENTRY POINT OPPORTUNITY ALSO, SO INVEST GOOD AND SAFE.