MARKET VIEW FOR 30TH AUGUST 2011

ON STRONG & POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, INDIAN STOCK MARKET STARTED STRONG AND GRADUALLY INCHED UP. AN OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF US ECONOMY BY FED CHAIRMAN ON FRIDAY, 26TH AUGUST 2011, BOOSTED THE SENTIMENTS ACROSS THE GLOBE. ALSO THE CALL-OFF OF HUNGER PROTEST BY SRI ANNA HAZARE OVER THE ANTI CORRUPTION BILL ALSO ADDED STIMULUS TO THE DOMESTIC RALLY IN INDIAN MARKETS TODAY. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4919.60 UP BY 171.80 POINTS(3.62%) & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16416.33 UP BY 567.50(3.58%). MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE. BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE UP BY MORE THAN 2.0%. FIIs WERE NET BUYERS & DIIs WERE NET SELLERS IN THE CASH MARKET.


GOING FORWARD, MARKET IS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEAR TERM IN A SMALL RANGE OF 4950-4860 AND TRADE ACCORDING TO GLOBAL CUES. INDIA'S GDP DATA SHALL ALSO AFFECT THE MARKET SENTIMENT TODAY. SO IT WILL BE A CAUTIOUS APPROACH TODAY. BREAK OF 4950 SHALL TAKE THE MARKET TO 4980 & 5040. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY BREAKS 4860 ON THE LOWER SIDE IT MAY GET SUPPORT AT 4810 & THEN AT 4760. THE MARKET TREND IS DOWN HOWEVER THERE IS STEEP SHORT COVERING RALLY( AS SAID YESTERDAY) AND THIS MAY FIZZLE OUT SOON. HOWEVER ONE MUST NOT SHORT BLINDLY BUT A SLOW APPROACH IS NEEDED AT THIS POINT OF TIME.


TODAY'S TRADE SHALL NOT PROVIDE A TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET. HENCE ONE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKET TODAY. HOWEVER ONE SHOULD START ACCUMULATING PUTS OF NIFTY [ PE 4700, PE4800, PE4900 & PE5000] AND  BEARISH STOCKS[DELTA & CHAMBAL ETC.] AS IT MAY GIVE PROFITS ON RESUMPTION OF DOWN TREND, MOST PROBABLY FROM FRIDAY.


ASTROLOGICAL NOTE: WE MAY SEE SHARP FALL ON FRIDAY DUE TO GLOBAL CUES FROM EUROPE & U.S FROM 1ST SEPTEMBER 2011.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 29TH AUGUST 2011 TO 2ND SEPTEMBER 2011

IT HAS BEEN  5 WEEKS IN A ROW MARKETS IN INDIA HAVE BEEN FALLING ON GLOBAL CONCERNS AND DOMESTIC UNREST OVER LOK PAL BILL. LAST WEEK STARTED POSITIVELY BUT LOST THE GROUND SOON, AFTER TOUCHING THE HIGH OF 4965,  WHERE MARKET GRIPPED ON THE FEAR OF OUTCOME OF FED CHAIRMAN, BEN BERNANKE'S SPEECH ON FRIDAY. SENSEX LOOSED BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF 16000 & NIFTY BELOW 4750. INFLATION INCREASED TO 9.8% IN THE WEEK TO AUGUST 13TH, 2011 FROM 9.03% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. MONSOON WAS WAS 8% BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEEK TO AUGUST 24TH, 2011. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT FED CHAIRMAN PROVIDED NO REAL CUES THAT FED IS BUILDING UP TO MORE POLICY STIMULUS, LIKE QE3. IN FACT HE EMPHASIZED THE POLITICIANS TO HELP THE ECONOMY BY SORTING OUT FISCAL SITUATION. SEPTEMBER POLICY MEET WILL BE FOR TWO DAYS, WHICH MIGHT BE SEEN AS HINT THAT FURTHER POLICY ACTION WILL FOLLOW. 
GOING FORWARD, THE SEPTEMBER MONTH REMAINS CRUCIAL IN RESPECT OF BOTH FED MEET AND RBI MEET ON 16TH SEPTEMBER, AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI MIGHT HIKE REPO-RATE BY 25bps. ALSO THE MONSOON SESSION HAS VERY FEW DAYS LEFT NOW, WHERE IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE TO TAKE UP ALL THE PENDING BILLS OF ECONOMIC REFORMS AND POLICIES. HOWEVER AS MR. ANNA HAZARE HAS BROKE HIS FAST, GOVERNMENT HAS NOW RELIEF FOR A BREADTH TO PONDER ON THE REMAINING DAYS IN THIS SESSION. HENCE SEPTEMBER REMAINS THE CRUCIAL MONTH IN MANY RESPECT. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MONTH SHOULD BE 4500-5200


THIS WEEK IS A TRUNCATED TRADING WEEK. MARKET REMAINS CLOSED ON 31ST AUGUST 2011(WEDNESDAY), ON ACCOUNT OF RAMZAN ID AND AGAIN ON  
1ST SEPTEMBER 2011(THURSDAY), ON ACCOUNT OF GANESH CHATURTHI. GDP DATA IS SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED ON 30TH AUGUST 2011(TUESDAY). ALSO  MONTHLY DATA OF AUTO, CEMENT & OTHER COMMODITIES FOR AUGUST 2011 AND THE EXPORT-IMPORT(EXIM) &  PMI DATA ARE EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCED IN THIS WEEK, WILL GIVE SOME DIRECTION TO THE MARKET. BUYING AUTO AND CONSUMER GOODS STOCK COULD BE SEEN, DUE TO UP COMING FESTIVE SEASON & GOOD RAINS.
NOW NIFTY MAY TAKE STRONG SUPPORT BETWEEN 4660 & 4690, IN THE COMING WEEK, THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY MAY BE 4660-5020. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS AND MOVES ABOVE THIS RANGE(5020) THEN 5140 & 5205 WOULD BE THE STRONG RESISTANCE LEVELS, HOWEVER IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 4660 IT MAY TEST 4530 & 4470 LEVELS ALSO. AS MAJOR TREND OF THE MARKET IS DOWN IT WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO EXIT LONG POSITIONS AND TAKE SHORT POSITIONS.


NIFTY STRATEGY: THIS WEEK SHALL BE VERY GOOD FOR OPTION PLAYERS.


STRATEGY 1[SITUATION (A)]: BUY NIFTY SEPTEMBER CE4700 & CE4800, IF YOU FIND NIFTY BETWEEN 4690-4660, KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4650(CLOSING BASIS) AND BOOK PROFIT IN CALLS ON EVERY RISE TO 5000 LEVELS.


STRATEGY 1[SITUATION (B)]: BUY NIFTY SEPTEMBER PE4700 & CE4600, IF YOU FIND NIFTY BELOW 4660-4650, KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4750(CLOSING BASIS) AND BOOK PROFIT IN PUTS ON EVERY FALL TO 4500 LEVELS.


STRATEGY 2: BUY PE 4700, PE4800, PE4900 ON EVERY SHORT COVERING & CORRECTIVE RALLY IN THE MARKET, KEEP 5050 AS BROAD STOP-LOSS AND KEEP BOOKING REGULAR PROFITS ON EVERY FALL NEAR TO 4500.


STOCK FUTURES/OPTIONS:
1.CHAMBAL FERT FUT(97.00): NEWS BASED INFO THAT BEAR CARTEL MIGHT BRING THE SHARE TO 80 LEVELS SOON. EITHER SHORT THE FUTURE ON EVERY RISE TILL  102-103-104 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 108.50 FOR THE TARGET OF 90-86-84-80 OR BUY PE100(SEPT) FOR HUGE GAINS.
2. DELTA CORP(84.80): NEWS BASED INFO THAT BEAR CARTEL MIGHT BRING THE SHARE TO 70 LEVELS SOON. EITHER SHORT THE FUTURE AT CMP OR  ON EVERY RISE TILL 86-87-88 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 91+(CLOSING BASIS) FOR THE TARGET OF 83-80-78-76-74-70 OR BUY PE85(SEPT) FOR HUGE GAINS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKET SHALL REMAIN IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE WITH SLACK & LACKLUSTER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY & TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE NEGATIVE VIEW IS MAINTAINED THERE WILL BE SHARP SPIKES DURING THE DAYS. FRIDAY, 2ND SEPTEMBER 2011, SHALL SEE SHARP CUT & FALL IN THE MARKET. BUYING PUTS IN THE START OF THE WEEK SHALL BE PROFITABLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MARKETS TO REMAIN POOR TILL 4TH SEPTEMBER 2011,  BUYING INTEREST WILL BE SEEN FOR NEXT WEEK, ON FRIDAY, 4TH SEPTEMBER 2011 FOR A VERY SHARP SHORT COVERING RALLY, BUYING OF CALLS IN NIFTY AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SHALL BE PROFITABLE IN THE WEEK 5TH SEPTEMBER 2011 TO 9TH SEPTEMBER 2011.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 26th AUGUST 2011

INDIAN MARKET CLOSED WITH MODERATE LOSES ON THE F&O EXPIRY DAY WITH HUGE VOLATILITY. THE SENSEX CLOSED AT 16146, DOWN 138 POINTS & NIFTY CLOSED AT 4839, DOWN 49 POINTS. BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP CLOSED IN NEGATIVE BY LESS THAN 1%. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND FIIs WERE NET SELLERS WHILE DIIs WERE NET BUYERS. INDIAN MARKET WITNESSED THE SELLING EVEN WHEN THE GLOBAL MARKETS WERE TRADING IN GREEN. AS SAID FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF NIFTY FOR AUGUST SERIES, AGAINST OUR EXPECTATION OF SETTLING AT OR BELOW 4800, NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT OF 4840.


AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE FED CHAIRMAN BERNANKE MAY BE RECOMMENDING IN THE FAVOR OF QE3. IT MAY IMPACT THE GLOBAL COMMODITY & EQUITY MARKETS IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. THE RECENT RISE IN THE GOLD WAS ON THE EXPECTATION OF THE SAME. QE3 IF IT GIVEN, THEN THE COMMODITY PRICES OF CRUDE AND METALS MAY RISE, WHICH MAY HIKE THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN EMERGING MARKETS, INCLUDING INDIA. THIS MAY KEEP THE DOMESTIC INFLATION OF INDIA ON THE HIGHS FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, WHICH MAY KEEP RBI TO FOLLOW STRICT & HAWKISH CREDIT POLICY, KEEPING THE HIGH INTEREST RATE FOR THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FURTHER SLOW DOWN IN GROWTH, CONSEQUENTLY THE MARGINS OF THE COMPANIES(using commodities as Input) MAY HIT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EARNINGS DOWNGRADES MAY PUSH THE MARKETS LOWER & LOWER AND AMID POORER SENTIMENTS. HENCE QE3 MAY NOT BE GOOD FOR INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS. SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT QE3 MAY BRING THE  FUNDS FLOW IN EQUITIES OF THE EMERGING MARKETS, DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGHER GROWTH POTENTIALS AND CHEAP VALUATIONS AFTER CORRECTION. HOWEVER IN INDIAN CONTEXT IT MAY BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE, HOW THE QE3 IMPACTS.
DOMESTICALLY IF THE MOVEMENT HAILED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE, SETTLES WITH THE GOVERNMENT AMICABLY, THEN THE PENDING BILLS OF ECONOMIC POLICY MAY BE TAKEN, WHICH SHALL IMPACT THE MARKET POSITIVELY. IF THE ISSUE IS NOT SETTLED SOON, THEN IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CONCLUDE THE MONSOON SESSION(AS IT ENDS ON 8TH SEPTEMBER, 2011) WITH SOME POLICY ACTION, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DELAY TILL WINTER SESSION, MAKING THE SENTIMENT MORE MURKY & POOR.


THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5300-4800. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING 300 POINTS MOVE. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF BREAK DOWN OF THE INDEX ARE MORE THAN GOING UP. BOTH GLOBAL & DOMESTIC EVENTS SHALL DECIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. LETS WAIT & SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT BY NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.


FOR THE COMING PERIOD/WEEK: AS THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY LIES AT 4790, SLIP BELOW THAT MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4650 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM & 4500 ANY TIME THEREAFTER. HOWEVER ANY MOVE ABOVE 5020 WOULD OPEN GATE FOR 5200. THOSE TRADERS WHO HAVE MAINTAINED LONGS SHOULD KEEP 4790 AS STRICT STOP-LOSS.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4840 AND RESISTANCE AT 4920. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4840, IT MAY SLIP TO 4810 & 4790, HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4920 THEN 4965 & 5020 WILL BE THE TARGET.


FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD BE LOOKED FOR POSITION IN FUTURE FOR TRADING POSITION ONLY(NO INVESTMENT ADVISE):


1.SKUMAR FUT: BUY ABOVE 45 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 42.80 FOR THE TARGET OF 48-50++.


2.IDEA FUT: BUY ABOVE 100.10 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 97.30 FOR THE TARGET OF 102-105++.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 25TH AUGUST 2011-EXPIRY SPECIAL

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED WEAK, MOVED TO POSITIVE ZONE HOWEVER THE DOWNGRADE OF JAPAN'S CREDIT RATING BY MOODY'S SPOILED THE SENTIMENTS AND INTENSE SELLING PRESSURE WAS SEEN TOWARDS THE LAST HOUR OF THE MARKET BRINGING THE SENSEX DOWN TO 16284.98 BY 213.49 POINTS, WHILE NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 4888.90 DOWN BY 60.00 POINTS. BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX CLOSED BELOW BY MORE THAN 0.50%. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE & FIIs WERE NET SELLERS IN THE CASH SEGMENT WHILE DIIs WERE NET BUYERS IN THE CASH SEGMENT.


AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM ON 26TH AUGUST 2011 WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD & DOMESTIC INSTABILITY RAISED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE MOVEMENT SHALL BE THE   FOCUS. INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A RANGE WITH NEGATIVE TREND & BIAS.


TECHNICALLY SPEAKING NIFTY HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE RANGE OF 4795 AND 4965 FOR LAST FOUR DAYS. YESTERDAY, AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT COVERING FOR LAST THREE DAYS (IN AUGUST SERIES) BEARS OPENED FRESH SHORTS IN SEPTEMBER SERIES, CONSEQUENTLY NIFTY SLIPPED BELOW 4900, NOW AS SAID EARLIER THAT THAT NIFTY WILL SETTLE BELOW 4800 IN AUGUST EXPIRY IS SOME WHAT EVIDENT. TO ADD A WORLD OF CAUTION, NIFTY SETTLEMENT BELOW 4800 INDICATES FURTHER WEAKNESS & NIFTY COULD TEST 4500 SOON.


FOR THE COMING PERIOD/WEEK: AS THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY LIES AT 4790, SLIP BELOW THAT MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4650 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM & 4500 ANY TIME THEREAFTER. HOWEVER ANY MOVE ABOVE 5020 WOULD OPEN GATE FOR 5200. THOSE TRADERS WHO HAVE MAINTAINED LONGS SHOULD KEEP 4790 AS STRICT STOP-LOSS.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4840 AND RESISTANCE AT 4920. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4840, IT MAY SLIP TO 4810 & 4790, HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4920 THEN 4965 & 5020 WILL BE THE TARGET.
NOTE: AS PER THE INFORMED SOURCE, I HAVE MENTIONED 4-5 DAYS EARLIER THAT NIFTY SETTLEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BELOW4800, HENCE THERE ARE FAIR CHANCES THAT NIFTY WILL SETTLE AT 4800 OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT.


STRATEGY FOR THE DAY(ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT NIFTY WILL SETTLE AT 4800 OR BELOW): 



SELL NIFTY CALL CE4900(AUG) @16-15-14-13-12-10 FOR THE TARGET OF  "ZERO" BY CLOSING HOURS OF MARKET, KEEP SL OF 30 (OR NIFTY 4920).


BUY PE4900(AUG) @48-50-52-54-58-60-65 FOR THE TARGET OF 100+++ BY CLOSING HOURS OF MARKET KEEP 
SL OF 12-8.(OR NIFTY 4920).


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID IN THE PAST POSTINGS, MARKETS ARE POOR TILL 4TH SEPTEMBER 2011 AND GLOBAL CUES ARE NOT GOOD FOR 25TH, 26TH & 27TH AUGUST FROM U.S & EUROPE, SHOULD KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS IN LONG POSITIONS. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 24TH AUGUST 2011

AFTER POSITIVE OPENING, MARKET MOVED INTO THE NEGATIVE ZONE AND LACKLUSTER TRADE WAS SEEN, HOWEVER MARKET RECOVERED SHARPLY IN AFTERNOON ON THE BACK OF BUYING IN TECHNOLOGY & CAPITAL GOODS. POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES WERE SUPPORTIVE TO THE MARKET. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4948.90 UP BY 50.10 POINTS AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16498.47 UP BY 156.77. BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE UP BY MORE THAN 1%. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND FIIs WERE NET SELLERS HOWEVER DIIs WERE NET BUYERS.


AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM ON 26TH AUGUST 2011 WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD & DOMESTIC INSTABILITY RAISED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE MOVEMENT SHALL BE THE FOCUS. TILL THEN THE MARKET SHALL REMAIN RANGE BOUND WITH DOWN TREND BUT POSITIVE 
BIAS.


DUE TO SETTLEMENT OF THE AUGUST SERIES ON 25TH AUGUST, ITS VERY IMPORTANT TO SEE THAT HOW MUCH ROLL-OVER IS SEEN IN THESE TWO DAYS. IF THERE IS COMPLETE ROLL-OVER (OF HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN BANKING & I.T. SECTOR SHARES), THEN THERE WILL BE HIGHER RISK OF MARKET SLIPPING DOWN TO 4800 AND EVENTUALLY TO 4600 IN SEPTEMBER SERIES. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE ROLL-OVER IS LOW, IT MEANS THAT SHORT POSITIONS IN THE AUGUST SERIES HAVE BEEN COVERED AND FRESH SHORT POSITIONS IN SEPTEMBER SERIES IS NOT BEEN INITIATED.


THE OTHER CLUE TO LOOK THAT WHAT WILL BE THE SEPTEMBER SERIES START IS THAT:
IF NIFTY SETTLES AT 4800 OR BELOW, IT MEANS THAT SHORT POSITIONS IN AUGUST SERIES HAVE BEEN COVERED TILL 4965.80 LEVELS(HIGHEST LEVEL OF YESTERDAY) AND FRESH SHORTS IN SEPTEMBER SERIES HAVE BEEN CREATED OR ROLLED-OVER, BROUGHT THE MARKET DOWN ON SETTLEMENT DATE BELOW 4800. HENCE IN SUCH A CASE NIFTY COLD TEST 4600 OR BELOW.
IF NIFTY SETTLES AT 5000 OR ABOVE, IT MEANS THAT SHORTS IN AUGUST SERIES HAVE BEEN COVERED TILL 5000 OR ABOVE (BUT NOT AT 4800 OR BELOW) AND FRESH SHORTS IN THE SEPTEMBER SERIES HAVE NOT BEEN CREATED OR ROLLED-OVER. HENCE IN SUCH A CASE NIFTY COULD TEST 5100-5200 LEVELS ALSO.


TO CONCLUDE IF NIFTY SETTLEMENT TAKES PLACE AT 5000 OR ABOVE THEN NIFTY MAY TEST 5100-5200 ALSO AND WE SHALL BE BUYING CALLS(CE5000 & CE5100), BUT IF NIFTY SETTLEMENT TAKES PLACE AT 4800 OR BELOW THEN WE SHALL BE BUYING PUTS(PE4800 & PE4700).


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AROUND 4900-4910 AND RESISTANCE AROUND 4980-5000. IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 4900 THEN IT MAY TEST 4870 & 4830. HOWEVER ON THE HIGHER SIDE IF NIFTY BREAKS ABOVE 4980 THEN 5020 & 5080 MAY BE TESTED. NIFTY WILL BE VOLATILE  AND STOCK ADJUSTMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF SETTLEMENT 
TOMORROW.


FOLLOWING ARE SOME STOCK FUTURE IDEAS:


1.CENTURY TEXT FUT: BUY ABOVE 296.50 SL 290.50 TARGET 303-306.


2.RELINFRA FUT: BUY ABOVE 459.50 SL 448 TARGET 470-480.


3.BHEL FUT: BUY ABOVE 1767 SL 1753 TARGET 1790-1800


4.TATAMOTOR FUT: BUY ABOVE 725 SL 695 TAGRET 790-800


5.AXIS BANK CE1100: BUY AROUND 7-8 TARGET 20+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 23RD AUGUST 2011

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED FLAT AND REMAINED WEAK TILL EUROPEAN MARKETS RECOVERED AND BUYING IN OIL & GAS SECTOR CAME IN. MARKET INCREASED BY SHORT COVERING ALMOST IN ALL SECTORS, WHICH LED THE MARKETS TO CLOSE ABOVE 1% GAINS. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4898.80, UP BY 53.15 POINTS & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16341.70, UP BY 200.03. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE.


AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM ON 26TH AUGUST 2011 WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD & DOMESTIC INSTABILITY RAISED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE MOVEMENT SHALL BE THE FOCUS. TILL THEN THE MARKET SHALL REMAIN RANGE BOUND WITH DOWN TREND BUT POSITIVE BIAS, AS THE NIFTY IS OVERSOLD.
AFTER MAKING HIGH OF 5702.95 ON 26TH JULY 2011 , NIFTY AS GIVEN CORRECTION OF ALMOST 15.9% IN THE PERIOD OF LESS THAN A MONTH. NOW THE SHORT TERM SUPPORT OF THE MARKET LIES AT 4780. IF NIFTY BREACHES 4780 , IT MAY FURTHER SLIP TO 4640 IN VERY SHORT TERM. EARLIER NIFTY HAS MADE GAP BETWEEN 5330 & 5230, HENCE ANY PULL BACK RALLY TO FILL THE GAP COULDN'T BE RULED OUT.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4860 & RESISTANCE AT 4945. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4860 ON THE DOWN SIDE THEN IT MAY SLIP TO 4830 & 4780 ALSO ON THE OTHER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4945 THEN NIFTY MAY TEST THE LEVELS OF 4980 & 5020 ALSO.


STRATEGY FOR THE DAY:
BUY NIFTY CALL CE4900: (AUGUST SERIES) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4900, KEEP 4860 AS STOP-LOSS TO LONGS.
BUY NIFTY PUT PE4900: (AUGUST SERIES) IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 4900 KEEP 4945 AS STOP-LOSS TO SHORTS.


STOCKS TO LOOK TODAY: FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE LOOKED FOR:


1.TITAN(203.05): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 208-211 KEEP 198.80 AS STOP-LOSS.


2. BHATI (392.70): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 400-405 KEEP 386.50 AS STOP-LOSS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 22ND AUGUST 2011 TO 26TH AUGUST 2011

KINDLY NOTE THAT THERE HAS BEEN CHANGE IN THE ASTROLOGICAL VIEW OF THE MARKET FOR THE PERIOD 26TH AUGUST 2011 TO 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011. PLEASE UPDATE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST VIEW GIVEN IN THIS POST.



DUE TO GLOBAL WORRIES OF THE US DOWNGRADE BY S&P, GROWING DEBT CONCERNS IN EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES HURT THE SENTIMENT ON THE WALL STREET RESULTING IN RISK AVERSION AND SELL-OFF IN GLOBAL EQUITIES. INDIAN MARKETS ALSO COULD NOT ESCAPE THE BLOW. ON FRIDAY, 19TH AUGUST MARKET TOUCHED LOWEST SINCE MAY 2010. INDIA'S INFLATION EASED MARGINALLY TO 9.22% FROM 9.44% IN JULY 2011 MAINLY DUE TO BASE EFFECT. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4845.65[TRADING AT PE MULTIPLE OF 13.93 TIMES CY EARNINGS] & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16141.67[TRADING AT PE MULTIPLE OF 14.44 TIMES CY EARNINGS].


GOING FORWARD INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. MAIN CUES SHALL COME FROM AMERICA. THE U.S. ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM ON AUGUST 26TH, WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT. IN ITS LAST FOMC MEETING THE FED DISCUSSED THE RANGE OF POLICY TOOLS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE A STRONGER ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND SAID THAT IT IS "PREPARED TO EMPLOY THESE TOOLS AS APPROPRIATE". THAT MAY HAVE INCLUDED QE3. HENCE FED CHAIRMAN BERNANKE'S SPEECH IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET'S DIRECTION.
DOMESTICALLY , CONCERN ABOUT POLITICAL INSTABILITY RAISE ONCE AGAIN AS ACTIVIST SRI ANNA HAZARE(Whom we all salute for his patriotism) BEGAN THE ANTI-CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN TO ENACT REFORMS TO FIGHT CORRUPTION. ALSO GOVERNMENT'S INACTION ON THE POLICY FRONT IS CREATING DOUBT ABOUT THE TIMELY PRESENTATION OF VARIOUS PENDING BILLS, LIKE DTC BILL, LAND ACQUISITION BILL, FDI LIMIT IN MULTI-BRAND RETAIL ETC ARE VERY IMPORTANT AS FIIs & INVESTMENT MANAGERS ARE KEENLY WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIA. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL CONCERNS ARE MORE WEIGHING ON THE SENTIMENT IN INDIA RATHER THAN DOMESTIC CONCERNS. F&O SETTLEMENT THIS WEEK SHALL ADD MORE VOLATILITY TO THE MARKETS. HENCE OVERALL THE SENTIMENT REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN THE NEAR TERM. FUNDAMENTALLY THE WEAKENING ECONOMY DUE TO RISE IN INTEREST RATES & INFLATION AND INACTION BY GOVERNMENT ON POLICY FRONT IS THE MAIN REASON FOR SELL-OFF BY THE FIIs WHICH MAY DRAG THE MARKET MORE DOWN SIDE. SENSEX MAY TEST 15200 ALSO.


LAST WEEK NIFTY HAS TOUCHED THE LEVEL OF 4796, WHICH WAS NEAR TO THE LEVEL OF  KEY  SUPPORT OF 4780 & SETTLED AT 4846. NOW THE NIFTY IS MAKING LOWER LOW & LOWER HIGH ON THE DAILY CHART CONFIRMING THE MAJOR TREND WHICH IS DOWN AS WELL AS THE INTERMEDIATE TREND IS ALSO DOWN.


IN THIS WEEK THE RANGE OF THE NIFTY MAY BE BETWEEN 4780-5070 RESISTANCE MAY BE AT 5150 AND MAJOR RESISTANCE AT 5200, IF THE NIFTY BREACHES ABOVE 5070 LEVEL, ON THE OTHER SIDE SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY MAY BE AT 4690 IF IT BREAKS THE LEVEL OF 4780 AND THEN THE KEY SUPPORT WILL BE AROUND 4530-4540.


VIEW FOR THE NIFTY TILL SETTLEMENT: BASED ON THE NEWS FROM THE INFORMED SOURCE & OPTION DATA SHOW THAT  SETTLEMENT OF THE NIFTY SHALL TAKE BELOW OR AT 4800. HENCE ANY CORRECTIVE RALLY SHOULD BE USED TO EXIT ALL LONG POSITIONS CALLS, FUTURES & DELIVERY POSITIONS.


AS CAUTION IN ADVANCE EXPERTS BELIEVE THAT IF THE MARKETS DIP BELOW 4800 ONE SHOULD EXIT ALL LONG POSITIONS IN DELIVERY ALSO AS THE RECOVERY MIGHT TAKE TIME THIS TIME. MARKET MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO SURVIVE AND RECOVER, IF SLIPS BELOW 4800/16000(NIFTY/SENSEX).
HENCE ITS A CAUTION THAT DON'T BUY IN THE NEAR TERM AND EXIT AT ANY PULL BACK RALLY NEAR 5100-5200, IF ONE GETS.


SHORT JAIN IRRIGATION AUGUST FUTURE(165.25): IT IS ADVISABLE TO SHORT AT CURRENT LEVELS AND ON RISE TILL 170-172 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 174.80-175(ON CLOSING BASIS) FOR THE TARGET OF 157-155-150. LOT SIZE: 2000


BUY JP ASSOC CE60(1.30): IT IS ADVISABLE TO BUY CALL AT Re.1 AND BELOW PROFITABLE IF THE SETTLEMENT TAKE PLACE ABOVE 61. EXPECTED EXPIRY MAY TAKE PLACE ABOVE 62.50++. LOT SIZE: 4000


ASTROLOGICALLY: SUN ENTERED MAGHA NAKSHATRA ON 17TH AUGUST, 2011 @ 11Hrs 49Min. IF WE CAST THE CHART OF SUN'S INGRESS IN THIS STAR, WE FIND THAT THE SUN'S STAR LORD, KETHU IS IN THE 8TH HOUSE . A RETROGRADE MERCURY , WHEN ENTERED CANCER CREATED HAVOC IN THE WORLD MARKETS, HENCE THE MERCURY EVEN AFTER GETTING DIRECT ON 26TH AUGUST 2011 UNTIL RETURN BACKS TO LEO ON 4TH SEPT 2011, WORLD MARKETS WILL NOT BE GOOD. HENCE NO BUY IS SUGGESTED IN DELIVERY & FUTURE TILL THAT PERIOD. BULLS WILL SEE A VERY BIG FIGHT. NOTE IN ADVANCE THAT THE TRANSIT OF MOON IN GEMINI ON 25TH & 26TH AUGUST SHALL LEAVE THE MARKETS OF THE WORLD VERY VERY DISTURBED AND SHAKY HENCE AS SAID FOR 17TH & 18TH AUGUST EARLIER, NOW 25TH & 26TH AUGUST SHALL BRING MAJOR JOLT/SHOCK IN THE WORLD MARKETS ESPECIALLY EUROPE & U.S.. INDIA SHALL NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THIS. HENCE NO LONG ROLL-OVERS ARE SUGGESTED INSTEAD SHORT POSITIONS ARE SUGGESTED AND ANY UP SWING SHOULD BE USED TO GET OUT OF THE LONGS IN F&O AND EXIT FROM DELIVERY AS THE NIFTY MIGHT TEST 4600-4500 VERY SOON.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 19TH AUGUST 2011

RESPONDING TO THE GLOBAL CUES, ESPECIALLY NEGATIVE EUROPEAN MARKETS & US FUTURES, SIGNIFICANT SELLING PRESSURE WAS SEEN. THE BENCHMARK INDICES CLOSED BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 5000. I.T & BANKING STOCKS PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN THE DOWNFALL. NIFTY CLOSED  AT 4944.15, DOWN 112.45 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16469.79, DOWN 371.01. MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE DOWN MORE THAN 2.4%. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE. FIIs WERE NET SELLERS HOWEVER DIIs WERE NET BUYERS IN THE MARKET.

GOING FORWARD GLOBAL CUES SHALL GUIDE THE MARKETS, AS SAID EARLIER ALSO. THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE NOW 4800 TO 5000. SO FAR NO BUYING IN THE STOCKS WAS SUGGESTED AS THE MARKET OUTLOOK WAS WEAK, AS NIFTY IS APPROACHING TO ITS VERY STRONG SUPPORT 4800, ANALYSTS SUGGEST THAT SELECTIVE BUYING SHOULD BE STARTED FOR LONG TERM PORTFOLIO. THE STOCKS WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED EARLIER SHOULD BE BOUGHT IN SMALL QUANTITIES NOW(SAY 30% OF WHAT YOU HAVE TO BUY).

FOR TODAY: IF THERE IS PANIC SELLING OR A GAP DOWN OPENING THERE COULD BE A BOUNCE BACK,WHICH SHOULD BE USED BY MOMENTUM PLAYERS TO MAKE SOME FAST MONEY. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT NOW , 4800 SHALL ACT AS A VERY STRONG SUPPORT AND TO BREAK BELOW 4800, A FRESH SET OF NEGATIVE NEWS IS NEEDED, WHICH MAY EITHER COME FROM GLOBAL MARKETS, GEO-POLITICAL UNREST OR DOMESTIC UNREST, SHOOTING UP OF INFLATION, IN-ACTION ON POLICY FRONT BY THE GOVERNMENT,WHICH IS ON AGENDA IN THE MONSOON SESSION, TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN CIVIL SOCIETY LED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE & GOVERNMENT OVER THE JAN LOK-PAL BILL, ETC. 

AS IN THE NEAR TERM IT IS EVIDENT THAT DOMESTICALLY THERE COULD BE NO NEGATIVE CUES, GLOBAL MARKETS SHALL BE THE FOCUS. HOWEVER MARKET HAS SEEN A GRADUAL FALL FOR LAST 12-14 DAYS & 4800 ACTING AS A STRONG SUPPORT, BUYING SHOULD BE DONE IN SELECTIVE STOCKS & NIFTY CALL OPTIONS, TO PLAY FOR ANY BOUNCE BACK, WHICH SHALL BE SEEN NEAR SETTLEMENT OF AUGUST SERIES. AS PER THE INFORMED SOURCE AND OPTION DATA, IT SEEMS THAT NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE AT/OR BELOW 5000.

STRATEGY FOR TODAY: BUY NIFTY CE4800 & CE4900 IF NIFTY OPENS WITH GAP DOWN KEEPING 4800 AS STOP-LOSS TO ALL LONG POSITIONS. HOLD THE NIFTY CALL OPTIONS TILL SETTLEMENT DATE, 25TH AUGUST 2011.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID EARLIER THIS WEEK & WELL PREDICTED IN ADVANCE THAT EUROPEAN & US MARKETS SHALL SHEE SHARP MOVES, PROBABLY DOWNWARDS, ON 17TH & 18TH AUGUST 2011, IT SHOULD BE UTILIZED TO MAKE MONEY. NOW FROM 19TH AUGUST TO 25TH AUGUST THE PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE & BUMPY RIDE. NIFTY  MAY NOT SHOW MUCH DEEP CUT BELOW 4800, IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE WILL BE VOLATILE UPSWING TILL SETTLEMENT. ASTROLOGICALLY MARKETS SHALL RISE BETWEEN 25TH AUGUST 2011 TO 12TH SEPTEMBER 2011. THIS PERIOD COULD BE USED TO PLAY MOMENTUM TRADE AND GETTING OUT OF STOCKS AS THERE COULD BE( UNDERSTAND THE WORD-- "COULD BE", "COULD BE" NOT "WILL BE")A SIGNIFICANT FALL THERE AFTER, WHICH MAY LEAD NIFTY TO 4600 OR BELOW. THE CONFIRMATION AND ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS ON THIS WILL BE GIVEN LATER. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 18TH AUGUST 2011

INDIAN MARKETS OPENED POSITIVE AND TRADED HIGHER, IN A VOLATILE SESSION, HOWEVER DIPPED TO RED, AFTER THE WEAK START OF EUROPE BUT THE MARKETS SOON REGAINED POSITIVE ZONE. HOWEVER, SELL-OFF CONTINUED IN THE BROADER MARKETS FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE SESSION. MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED IN DEEP RED DUE TO NARROW DOWN OF EXPOSURE IN THESE STOCKS. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5056.60, UP BY 20.80 POINTS & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16840.80, UP BY 109.86. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE.


GOING FORWARD, INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. FOOD & FUEL INFLATION DATA, WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED TODAY SHALL ALSO GUIDE THE MARKET MOVEMENT, ALSO THE PROGRESS OF MONSOON SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ALSO THE VARIOUS DATA IN US MARKETS SHALL ALSO GUIDE THE COURSE OF ACTION IN THE MARKETS. THE OUTLOOK REMAINS GRIM AND BIAS REMAINS NEGATIVE. SHORT TERM TRADING RANGE REMAINS 4950-5250. BREAK OF EITHER SIDE SHALL INVITE 200 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY.


FOR TODAY: A VOLATILE SESSION WILL BE SEEN WHERE IN THE RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5150-4950. THIS TRADING RANGE SHALL BE GOOD FOR OPTION PLAYERS. BUY PE5100 IF NIFTY OPENS HIGHER/RISES NEAR 5100 KEEPING A VERY SHORT TERM TRADING STOP-LOSS OF 5150 OR BUY CE5000 IF NIFTY OPENS LOWER/FALLS NEAR 5000 KEEPING A VERY SHORT TERM TRADING STOP-LOSS OF 4950.


STOCK FUTURE & OPTIONS:
 1.COLGATE PALMOLIVE FUTURE:BUY NEAR 930-920, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 896 FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 950-1000+++.


2. DABUR FUTURE: BUY NEAR 102-103, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 99.50 FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 108-110+++.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS SHALL NOT BE GOOD FOR INVESTMENT/TRADING TILL MERCURY IS RETRO, 26TH AUGUST 2011, HENCE STOCKS SHOULD BE AVOIDED AND INDICES COULD BE TRADED IN OPTIONS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 17TH AUGUST 2011

EVEN AFTER THE POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES AND OPENING HIGHER INDIAN MARKETS COULDN'T SUSTAIN AT THE HIGHER LEVELS AND AS EXPECTED CAME DOWN FROM THE HIGHS OF THE DAY AND CLOSED NEGATIVELY, TOWARDS THE CLOSE AS EUROPEAN MARKETS AND DOW FUTURE OPENED AND TRADED WEAK. SENSEX CLOSED AT 16730.94, DOWN 108.69 POINTS & NIFTY CLOSED AT 5035.80, DOWN 37.15. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDICES CLOSED IN RED. INDIA'S INFLATION EASED MARGINALLY IN JULY 2011 MAINLY ON ACCOUNT OF BASE EFFECT. ON YoY BASIS, INFLATION EASED FROM 9.44% TO 9.22% IN JUNE 2011


GOING FORWARD GLOBAL CUES SHALL GUIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET. EUROZONE CRISIS MEETING BETWEEN FRANCE AND GERMANY, MOVEMENT IN US MARKETS SHALL BE THE FOCUS.


FOR TODAY, BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY SHALL BE 5150-4950. AS THE TREND OF THE MARKET IS DOWN, AND RISE SHOULD BE USED TO BUY PUTS OF 5200 & 5100 STRIKES (PE5200 & PE5100) KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5250AND ANY LOWER OR GAP-DOWN OPENING SHOULD BE USED TO BUY CALLS OF 5000 & 5100 STRIKES (CE5000 & CE5100) KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4950.
TODAY THE MARKET MOVEMENT SHOULD VOLATILE AS USUAL, HOWEVER THE BIAS OF THE MARKET IS CLEARLY DOWN.


IT HAS ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED THAT 17TH & 18TH SHALL BE IMPORTANT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS ESPECIALLY EUROPEAN AND US MARKETS. THERE WILL BE SHARP & VOLATILE MOVES(PROBABLY DOWNWARDS) IN THESE MARKETS WHICH SHALL HAVE EFFECT ON INDIAN MARKETS AS WELL. HENCE NO DELIVERY AND F&O TRADE IS SUGGESTED EXCEPT IN NIFTY OPTIONS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 16TH AUGUST 2011 TO 19TH AUGUST 2011

INDICES ENDED THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK WITH HUGE LOSSES, WHERE SENSEX CLOSING BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF 17000 AT 16839 AND NIFTY AT 5072, ALL OTHER INDICES, LIKE MID-CAP, SMALL-CAP, SECTORAL INDICES EXCEPT FMCG CLOSED IN RED.
WITH THE END OF QUARTER 1 RESULTS, INDIAN MARKETS WILL NOW TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES MAINLY. RECENT DROP IN COMMODITY PRICES MAY BE BENEFICIAL FOR COMPANIES WHICH USE THE COMMODITIES IN INPUT AND ALSO THIS MAY HELP TO CHECK THE RISING INFLATION.
GLOBALLY, IN AMERICA FED HAS DISCUSSED THE THE RANGE OF POLICY TOOLS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE STRONGER ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND SAID IT IS PREPARED TO EMPLOY THESE TOOLS AS APPROPRIATE.  THIS MAY HAVE INCLUDED QE3. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF QE3 HAVE RISEN , IT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL NEXT YEAR WHEN CORE INFLATION HAS STARTED TO FALL BACK. SEVERAL MARKETS LIKE FRANCE, BELGIUM, ITALY & SPAIN ANNOUNCED 15 DAYS BAN ON THE SHORT-SELLING OF CERTAIN FINANCIAL STOCKS AND ITS DERIVATIVES. HENCE GOING FORWARD THE GLOBAL MARKETS COULD SEND SOME MORE JITTERS TO INDIAN MARKETS ALSO.
DOMESTICALLY INFLATION DATA FOR THE MONTH OF JULY &  MONSOON PROGRESS IS SCHEDULED TO BE ANNOUNCED ON 16TH AUGUST, TUESDAY(TODAY), WHICH SHALL ALSO GUIDE THE MARKET. ANY RISE IN INFLATION DATA SHALL MAKE HIGHER CHANCES OF RATE HIKE BY RBI ON ITS 16TH SEPTEMBER MEETING.


MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE VOLATILE IN THIS WEEK, DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET. NIFTY IS LIKELY TO TRADE IN THE BROAD RANGE OF 4950-5250. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE MAY LEAD TO 200 POINTS MOVE.


NO STRATEGY IS SUGGESTED FOR TODAY, 16TH AUGUST 2011, AS THE CHANCES ARE THAT MARKETS MAY START ON POSITIVE GAP-UP OPEN, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE DECLINE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MARKET HOURS.


THOSE WISH TO TRADE SHALL BUY PE 5100 & PE5000 ON ANY RISE IN THE NEAR FUTURE KEEPING 5250 AS SHORT TERM STOP-LOSS AND 5350 AS DEEP STOP-LOSS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS MA BE WEAK AFTER 12 HRS ON 16TH AUGUST TILL 18TH AUGUST. GLOBAL MARKETS MAY SEE HUGE ACTION ON 17TH AUGUST  OR 18TH AUGUST. THERE COULD BE SHARP MOVES, PROBABLY DECLINE, IN THESE DAYS. HENCE THERE WILL BE RISK IN GLOBAL AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS. HENCE TRADE CAUTIOUSLY. 

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR 12TH AUGUST 2011

MARKET OPENED ON WEAK NOTE ON GLOBAL CUES AND RECOVERED DURING THE NOON AS ASIAN MARKETS RECOVERED HOWEVER GAVE UP THE GAINS AND CLOSED SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE DRAGGED BY THE BANKING, REALITY & SOME FRONTLINE STOCKS. FOOD INFLATION ACCELERATED TO 9.90% FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30, 2011 AGAINST 8.04% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5138.30, DOWN 22.70 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 17059.40, DOWN 71.11. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN MARGINALLY.


TODAY MAJOR EVENT TO GUIDE INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS IIP DATA AND GLOBAL CUES. AT THE TIME OF THE WRITING AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MARKETS ARE GREEN GIVING SIGNAL FOR INDIAN MARKETS TODAY. ON THE BACK OF STRONG ASIAN MARKETS INDIAN MARKETS SHALL OPEN IN GAP-UP & GREEN. HOWEVER THE BEFORE THE IIP DATA MARKETS COULD SLIP A LITTLE( IT MEANS THAT MARKET COULD COME TO NEUTRAL FROM TOP, BUT NOT NECESSARILY GO DEEP NEGATIVE) AND AFTER IIP DATA MARKETS WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE, UP-DOWN, UP-DOWN, HOWEVER THE BIAS OF THE MARKET SHALL REMAIN POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL. HENCE BUYING COULD BE DONE IF THE MARKET IS SEEN NEGATIVE AS THE CLOSING WILL BE EITHER ON POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL SIDE.
NIFTY HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE NARROW BAND OF 5120-5200 FOR LAST TWO DAYS. NOW IT IS EXPECTED TAT THE NIFTY SHALL MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 4940-50 TO 5330-50, BREAK OF EITHER SIDE SHALL MAKE 200 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY EITHER TO 4700 OR 5500 APPROXIMATELY. 


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AT 5100  & 5180 RESPECTIVELY. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5100 ON THE DOWN SIDE IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 5070 AND THEN 5025. HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5180 THEN 5220-5250 SHALL BE THE TARGET.


STRATEGY FOR TODAY:


STRATEGY1: BUY CE5200 , IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5200 FOR THE TARGET OF 5220-5250. BUY PE5100, IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 5100 FOR THE TARGET OF 5070-5025. (The bias of the market shall be up today, hence if market opens with Gap-up then wait for dip and buy calls then. Don't jump in trade in the opening)


OR 


STRATEGY2: BUY CE5100 & CE5200, ON EVERY DIP & FALL, AS THE BIAS OF THE MARKET SHALL BE UP THE CALLS SHALL GIVE PROFIT TODAY. KEEP 5100 AS STOP-LOSS FOR ALL SHORT TERM LONGS.


NOTE TO OPTION PLAYERS: TODAY THERE WILL BE HIGH VOLATILITY 
WHICH SHALL GIVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO BOTH CALL & PUT PLAYERS.


STOCK OPTIONS/FUTURE PLAY:
BUY INFY CE2450 @50-55 & SELL INFY CE2550@20-22. CMP: 2440.60. STRATEGY WILL BE PROFITABLE WHEN CLOSING PRICE IS 2485 ON THE EXPIRY OF THE SERIES ON 25TH AUGUST, HENCE 14 DAYS LEFT. IN THIS STRATEGY MAXIMUM PROFIT: 8200-8400 & MAXIMUM LOSS: 3800-4000.
 (TRY ONCE YOU WILL GET ADDICTED TO THIS STRATEGY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)


ASTROLOGICALLY: SUN'S CHANGE OF SIGN NEXT WEEK AND RETRO MERCURY INGRESSING THE CANCER SHALL GIVE GOOD UP-SWING WITH VOLATILITY  IN THE MARKET. HENCE THOSE WHO WISH CAN BUY CE5200 & CE 5300 WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5100.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.