MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 28TH MAY 2012 TO 1ST JUNE 2012

Indian Markets ended the previous week on a volatile note among the various news flow like huge petrol price hike, developments in the Euro Zone, falling value of rupee being the main. Sensex ended at 16217.82 & Nifty at 4920.40 on 0.5% hike on weekly basis.


Going forward Indian markets are likely to remain volatile because of global cues, uncertainties in Euro-Zone regarding Greece, absence of any positive domestic trigger and policy paralysis on the part of government. 
Government may soon take decision on roll back on petrol price hike, F&O Settlement on 31st May, GDP Figure of India for Q4FY11-12 on 31st May are the main very short term factors which should be watched for.


Its important to note that the volatility in the value of rupee shall come to settle only after the Greece issue is resolved which could be any time after the second elections on 17th June and the monsoon reports which will start trickling in from the June first week, which will decide the future course of market in June series.


As valuation wise Nifty is trading around 12xFY13 EPS which is cheap and hence augurs the buying around these levels of Nifty 4800. As inflation, crude and dollar will cool down in near term and RBI may go on with more rate cuts in future, markets will anticipate this and give a bullish  rally breakout till 5650-5800++ in near term.


Hence I recommend to shut down all TV Channels, websites and tip providers and start buying the select stocks........


Nifty is consolidating in the range of 5040 and 4790 and it is expected the it will continue to remain in the same range for some time. If nifty is able to remain and close above 5040 it may test 5130. However breach of 4790 shall bring a fall in Nifty till 4720 and then 4640 in the extreme short term. Hence traders should maintain the stop loss of 4770 for long positions.


FOR THIS WEEK: No trading zone for Nifty is 4880-4960. 
Buy CE4900 & CE5000 if Nifty breaks above 4960 for the target of 5040-5130
Buy PE4900 & PE4800 if Nifty breaks below 4880 for the target of 4790-4720.


TRADING TIPS OF THE WEEK:


1. TATA STEEL(408.60): Buy for the target of 430-444 buy next 14-15 days.


2. CAN BANK(396): Buy for the target of 407-419 by next 14-15 days.


Astrologically: Markets are likely to take up trend from the 2nd week of June series. No Panic and no worries soon we will see rise..................

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21ST MAY 2012 TO 25TH MAY 2012

INDIAN MARKETS OUTPERFORMED THE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MARKETS, HOWEVER CLOSED ALMOST  0.75% LOWER ON THE WEEKLY BASIS IN BOTH NSE & BSE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4891.45 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16152.75. VALUE OF RUPEE SLID TO ALL TIME LOW TO MAKE A NEW HISTORY MAINLY DUE TO HUGE OIL IMPORTS. INFLATION FIGURE FOR APRIL 2012 WAS AT SHOCKING 7.23%, WHICH RAISED WORRIES ON FACES OF INVESTORS ABOUT THE FURTHER ACTION OF RBI ON RATE CUTS. GLOBAL WORRIES OVER THE EURO-ZONE CRISIS AND CURRENT A/C DEFICIT OF INDIA MADE THE INVESTORS NERVOUS.

AS EXPECTED NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT AROUND 4750-4800 LEVEL ZONE AND BOUNCED BACK HELPED BY BETTER THAN EXPECTED RESULTS OF SBI, WHICH LED ALL ROUND BUYING IN BANKING SECTOR. THE VALUE GENERATED DUE TO DECLINE IN CRUDE OIL PRICES INTERNATIONALLY  HAS BEEN ERASED OR OFF-SET BY FALL IN VALUE OF RUPEE. HENCE THERE IS NO CHEER DUE TO DECLINING CRUDE PRICES ON INDIAN STOCK MARKET. 

GOING FORWARD THE COMING WEEKS WILL BE VERY ACTION PACKED. GOVERNMENT & RBI BOTH MAY COME OUT WITH ACTIONS NEEDED TO CONTAIN THE FALL IN VALUE OF RUPEE. THIS MAY GIVE STABILITY TO VALUE OF RUPEE IN TERMS OF FOREX AND CONSEQUENTLY WE MAY SEE STABILITY IN STOCK MARKETS ALSO.

GLOBALLY DEVELOPMENTS IN EURO-ZONE AND GREECE MAY AFFECT THE SENTIMENTS.

I CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SAME VIEW -- MARKETS WILL GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 4800 LEVELS AS IT TRADES AT 12xFY13 EPS WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE. ALSO INFLATION MAY COOL AND GRADUALLY THE MONSOON PROGRESS WILL MAKE TYE MARKETS TO MOVE UP  FROM JUNE. HENCE I MAINTAIN BUY IN SELECT  STOCKS....

TECHNICALLY, THE DAILY CHART O NIFTY SHOW THAT IT HAS GIVEN A CORRECTION OF ALMOST 9.30% IN JUST 15 DAYS TIME SPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 4720. IF NIFTY BREACHES THIS LEVEL SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY FURTHER GO DOWN TO 4640. HOWEVER BREACH OF 4960 WOULD INDICATE THE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 5130 IN VERY SHORT TERM. HENCE TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4720 TO ALL LONG POSITIONS. INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO BUY AND ADD MORE ON EVERY DIP FOR INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE OF 12-18 MONTHS.

FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 4770-4960.

BUY CE5000 & CE 5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 4960 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4770 FOR THE TARGET OF 5040-5130

BUY PE4800 & PE4700 IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4770 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4960 FOR THE TARGET OF 4720-4640.

I HAVE POSITIVE VIEW ON THE FOLLOWING STOCKS FOR INVESTMENT (12-18 MONTHS):

1. DELTA CORP (62.60): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 150+++

2. ZEE LEARN (18.75): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 200+++( A VERY GOOD BUY FOR ALL)

3. CERA SANTIARY (249.85): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 1000++

4. LOVABLE (311.05): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 2000+++

JUST BUY THE SHARES IN DELIVERY AND ADD ON EVERY FALL

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL BE POSITIVE AFTER THE 3RD JUNE 2012. PLANETS WILL FAVOR BULLS IN JUNE SERIES........

ENJOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. 

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 14TH MAY 2012 TO 18TH MAY 2012

LAST WEEK INDIAN MARKETS ENDED ON WEAK NOTE AND STARTED THE WEEK WITH NEGATIVE BIAS. THE CLARIFICATION ON 'GAAR' AND SOME MEASURES BY RBI TO CONTROL THE DECLINING RUPEE COULD NOT GIVE MUCH SUPPORT TO THE SENTIMENTS AND THE FIIs ARE RELENTLESSLY SELLING. MARKET BROKE ALL THE MAJOR SUPPORTS AND DAY BY DAY ITS TRENDING DOWN AND DOWN. 


AS SAID EARLIER I STICK ON THE SAME VIEW THAT THESE ARE THE SHORT TERM PHENOMENON AND MARKETS WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP AND SHALL BE IN THE BULL PHASE SOON. IT MAY HAPPEN THAT WE ARE LUCKY TO GET SOME LOWER LEVELS LIKE 4750-4850 WHERE WE CAN HAVE GOOD VALUE STOCK PICKS. 


FOR THOSE WHO ARE HAVING SOME CASH SHOULD KEEP ON ADDING LITTLE POSITION AND HOLD THE REST FOR SOME PERIODIC BUYING IN A PHASED MANNER. 


THE SHORT TERM RANGE FOR THE MARKET IS NOW 4800-5200 AND WE SHALL SEE NIFTY IN THE SAME RANGE IN MAY, WHERE THE MAY DERIVATIVE SETTLEMENT COULD TAKE PLACE NEAR 4800. THIS RANGE OF THE NIFTY WILL BE BROKEN ANY TIME AFTER JUNE FIRST WEEK ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND NIFTY SHALL MOVE TO 5400 & 5600. HENCE ANY DIP SHOULD BE USED TO BUY GOOD STOCKS AND STOCKS WHICH HAVE SOME IMPORTANT EVENTS AHEAD.


I HAVE SELECTED FOLLOWING STOCKS:
1. SBI
2. LT
3. DELTA CORP
4. CERA SANITARY
5. SAINT GOBAIN
6. MANGLORE CHEMICALS
7. HDFC
8. KENNA METAL


ASTROLOGICALLY: Markets shall start stabilizing any time after the 3rd week of May and shall start moving up and out of range 4800-5200 on the higher side after 1st week of June

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 7TH MAY 2012 TO 11TH MAY 2012

LAST WEEK INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET CLOSED ALMOST NEAR THE LOWEST IN LAST THREE MONTHS MAINLY ON TWO MAJOR CONCERNS DEPRECIATING RUPEE AND UNCERTAINTIES ON 'GAAR'. RUPEE FELL AGAINST DOLLAR TO 53.87 BEFORE CLOSING TO ITS ALL TIME LOW, WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO HUGE OIL IMPORTS. UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE MAURITIUS TREATY AND GAAR WERE THE MAIN WORRIES AMONG THE FIIs DURING THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. ALSO THE WEAK EUROPEAN MARKETS, WEEK END AND TECHNICAL BREAK DOWN, NIFTY BELOW 5130, TRGGERED THE SELLING IN INDICES AND MORE IN HIGH BETA STOCKS AND SECTORS LIKE  BANKING, METALS AND CAPITAL GOOD PERFORMED THE WORST. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5086.85 AND SENSEX AT 16831.08.


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE VERY VOLATILE AHEAD AS CLARIFICATION ON GAAR IS EXPECTED ANY TIME EARLY THIS WEEK. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS IIP DATA, SCHEDULED ON 11TH MAY. RBI HAS ANNOUNCED TWO MEASURES TO EASE FOREIGN CURRENCY FLOWS AND ALSO TO ENHANCE THE AVAILABILITY OF EXPORT CREDIT IN FOREIGN CURRENCY. SOME IMPORTANT RESULT LIKE HDFC, PANTALOON RETAIL, UNITED SPIRITS, KOTAK BANK ARE ALSO WORTH WATCHING.


FUNDAMENTALLY CURRENTLY NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 14.59 TIMES OF FY12 EARNINGS AND 11.11 TIMES OF FY13(EST), WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THAT WE ARE TRADING CHEAP. HENCE ANY DOWN SIDE BELOW 5000 LEVELS WILL BE BOUGHT AND GRADUALLY WE WILL SEE THE NORTHWARD JOURNEY ONCE THE INFLATION STARTS COOLING AND PENDING ISSUES CLEAR. 


HENCE I HAVE NO CHANGE IN MY PREVIOUS VIEW, WHICH REMAINS THE SAME--- " JUST KEEP ON ADDING THE SELECT STOCKS ON EVERY DIP". IF WE ARE LUCKY THEN WE WILL GET CHEAP MARKET AROUND 4950-4900 BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY LUCKY TO GET IT AROUND 4800 OR 4700.


THESE DAYS EVERY ONE HAS STARTED TALKING ABOUT A CRASH ......... AND 4500-4000-3800 LEVELS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT EVERY THING WILL NOT END.......... AFTER THE RESULT SESSION WE WILL BE PRICING THE Q2 NUMBERS AND WE SHALL SEE THE POSITIVE SURPRISE IN IT.


I HAVE COME TO KNOW FROM A SOURCE THAT THE RANGE OF THIS MAY MONTH IS 4850-5400, WE ARE CLOSER TO AROUND 5050, HENCE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT WE WILL FIRST TOUCH 4900-4940 THEN 5400 LATER IF THE MARKETS GETS POSITIVE NEWS, AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT WE MAY TURN POSITIVE ANY TIME WHEN WE GET CLARIFICATION ON GAAR, HENCE SHORTING COULDN'T BE WISE AT THE LOWER LEVELS.....JUST ADD THE FEW FRONT LINE STOCKS( Only in Delivery) AND LIKE SBI, BHARTI, INFOSYS, TATA STEEL ETC AS THESE WILL HAVE SHARP RECOVERY ANY TIME.


ON FRIDAY NIFTY HAS BROKEN 200 DMA AT 5117, NOW IT WILL GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 5000. IF 5000 IS ALSO BROKEN SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY WILL SLIP TO 4940 OR EVEN TO 4850, HOWEVER, A BREACH OF 5350 WOULD INDICATE THE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY WILL TEST THE LEVELS OF 5510 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.HENCE TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5000 AND INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ON ADDING SOME SELECT FRONT LINE STOCKS.


FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5000-5190. 
BUY CE5100 & CE5200 IF MOVES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5190, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5000 FOR THE TARGET OF 5250-5350.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 5000 AND MOVES BELOW, KEEPING 5190 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 4940 & 4850.


FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY IN DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS):


1. RALLIS
2. KENNA METAL(Only in BSE)
3. TTK HEALTH
4. ARVIND
5. MANGALORE CHEM
6. TATA GLOBAL 
7. ING VYASYA BANK
8. SAINT GOBAIN
9. INOX 
10. SHASHUN CHEM 


NOTE: ALL THESE SHARES AND MANY OTHERS, WHICH  HAVE BEEN MENTIONED HERE IN THE PAST CONTINUE TO REMAIN AS POSITIVE AS ON THEM PREVIOUSLY.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.