Sunday, January 27, 2013

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 28TH JANUARY 2013 TO 1ST FEB 2013

Last week Indian Stock Markets settled lower due to poor result by Tata Motors and chaos of carnage in reality companies like HDIL and IVRCL. Volatile sessions amid the uncertainties of rate cut by RBI kept the sentiments of investors on the cautious mode. Sensex closed at 20103.53 and Nifty at 6074.65.

Going forward the participants shall have keen watch on the RBI policy meet scheduled on 29th January 2013. Rate cut of 0.25% is expected and any thing against this shall bring large moves on the either side. If there is more than 0.25% rate cut, then the market shall celebrate the cheer and we shall witness the same on indices reaching the all time high in near future, on the other hand if the builti-in expectation is brought to jolt with RBI procrastinating or deferring the same on inflation concerns, markets shall witness a sharp correction of 150-200 points in Nifty in weeks to come.
Another major trigger shall be the F&O settlement on 31st January. If Nifty manages to settle above 6100-6150 then we shall witness new highs very soon in the form of pre-budget rally. However we shall keep in mind that markets shall consolidate in the range of 5750-6180 in normal circumstances till the pre-budget rally starts...

After talking to the various analysts and fund managers it is concluded the one should be buyer in the market and every dip should be utilized to accumulate the quality large-cap and mid-cap shares. They expect markets to make new highs before Union Budget 2013.

Technically speaking the broader range of market in terms of Nifty is with the resistance of 6150 and support of 5940. Short term trend of Nifty remains bullish above 5940. A fall below this would indicate reversal of short term up-trend and Nifty may test the next support level 5800-5820. Hence all long positions should be held with a strict stop-loss of 5940.
Profit booking could be seen around 6100-6150 and a break of this levels could bring next significant move in Nifty(to 6250-6350++) (which may come if rate cut by RBI is more than 25bps) else in normal circumstances Nifty may move in the short term range of 5940-6150.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY AND HOLD AND ADD ON DIPS FOR A DELIVERY PERIOD OF 45-60 DAYS TO 4-6 MONTHS:

1. AEGIS LOGISTICS(168.05):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 1000++ in investment account. Short term target of 178-188-196-210+++++ in trading account.

2. L&T FIN HOLDING(85.55): Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 1000++ in investment account. Short term target of 90-94-100 +++++ in trading account.

3. L&T(1607.30):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 4000++ in investment account. Short term target of 1680-1720-1760-1800+++++ in trading account.

4. RCOM(86.10):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 200++ in investment account. Short term target of 90-94-100+++++ in trading account.

5. NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS(64.30): Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 250++ in investment account. Short term target of 68-72-76+++++ in trading account.



Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. 

  

Sunday, January 20, 2013

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21st JANUARY 2013 TO 25th JANUARY 2013

Indian Stock Market closed higher on the last day of the previous week , where Sensex closing above 20,000 for the first time in 2 years. Market was led by oil & gas sector while I.T shares were down due to disappointing guidance by Wipro. Sensex closed at 20039.04 and Nifty at 6064.40 both up almost 2% over the week. 

Going forward, Indian Markets are likely to continue the momentum, which commenced with the initiation from the government side to partially de-regulate the diesel prices. However going forward there remains some uncertainty regarding the RBI's monetary policy stance in the upcoming policy meet in last week of January 2013. Looking at inflation figures , some senior person has remarked that RBI may not cut the rate of interest in its January policy. This has created a sense of apprehension in the market. On the result side heavy weight results were better than expected led by Reliance. This shows the optimism may reflect on screen. This week we shall see the important results like LT, HUL, HDFC, Maruti, NTPC, etc.

Its important to point out here that inspite of many challenges and apprehensions Indian Stock Market continued the rally so far, we have seen the GAAR issues, global issues, Fiscal Cliff of America and many others, but all of them were unable to stop the inflow of foreign funds in India. This is a very clear indication that India has a relatively  higher edge over other investment destinations in Asia Pacific. 
After talking to various fund managers and analysts review its could be concluded that Indian Stock Market shall continue to march and  we shall see new top very soon, may be before budget. Hence the buy on dips and holding the portfolio could prove beneficial and reward significantly. We shall see 6300++ and 21500++ where we shall review of holdings. Buying shall be done in shares like HDFC, CESC, NTPC, RELIANCE, SBI, DELTACORP for investment purpose.

Technically speaking the experts say, "the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a positive rally of almost 9% in a time span of two months. The short term trend of Nifty is still positive and it is likely to test 6180 in the extremely short term. However a breach of 5910-5900 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may go down to 5800-5650 in the short term. (This could happen if RBI defers the rate cut in January end policy meet). Hence Long position could be held only with the stop-loss of 5910-5900. 

FOR THE COMING WEEK:
No trading range of the Nifty is 5950-6090.
Go long in the Index(Future/Call Options) if Nifty sustains above 6090 for the extreme short term target of 6130-6180-6220+++, keeping Stop-Loss of 6040-6010.
Go short in the Index(Future/Put Options) if Nifty breaches below 5950 for the extreme short term target of 5910-5820-5650, keeping Stop-Loss of 6010-6030.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY IN SHORT TERM DELIVERY (45-60 DAYS):

1. RELIANCE(898.95): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 920-40-960-980-1000+++

2. UNITED PHOS (141.10): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 150-156-160+++

3. CERA SANITARY(439.60): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 450-480-520+++

4. RCOM(83.25): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 86-92-99+++

5. WANBURY(32.90): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 35-38-42-45+++

6 J.P.POWER(35.70): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 36.50-38.20-39.40+++

7. AKZO NOBEL(985.65): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 1000-1080-1120-1160+++

8. SHALIMAR PAINTS(128.95): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 140-145+++

9. BERGER PAINTS(160.20): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 175-180+++

10.  NTPC(164.50): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 175-180-185-190+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Monday, January 7, 2013

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING 7TH JANUARY 2013

Surprisingly after a last minute deal pieced together by US politicians to avoid the fiscal cliff  sent a wave of optimism gave a much relief to market participants resulting in rise in global as well as domestic indices. In the first week of January 2013, Nifty closed above 6000 levels after the gap of 2 years signalling the undertone bullishness in the market. Nifty closed at 6016.15 & Sensex at 19784.08 with a weekly gain of around 1.75% over the previous week.

Going forward Indian Markets is likely to remain range bound due to lack of major triggers. Corporate earnings scheduled to begin next week may induce in stock specific moves.
IIP data is scheduled on 11th January 2013 may have minimal impact on markets as the expectations of rate cut by RBI on 29th January 2013 is already priced in the market. Market may gradually approach to 6150-6200 levels in Nifty by then. Hence our buy on stock specific approach with adding more on dips is maintained.

For last 8 months I have been in the view to be buyer on every dip and now it could be felt clearly the this strategy has been right....

Technically, the analysts hold the view "The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the range of 8.20% in a time span of one and half month. The short term trend still looks positive. The immediate short term resistance of Nifty is around 6030-50 and a conclusive breach of this level is likely to take Nifty higher to 6180-6250 in the extreme short term. Hence hold the long positions in trading with stop-loss of 5950. 

FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading range of the Nifty is 5950-6050
Go long in Nifty above 6050, keeping stop-loss of 5950, for the target of 6120-6180-6250.
Go short in Nifty below 5950, keeping stop-loss of 6030, for the target of 5870-5800-5750.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY IN TRADING ACCOUNT FOR 45-60 DAYS OR INVESTMENT OF 6-8 MONTHS:

1. SAINT GOBAIN(37.50): Buy for the target of Rs. 45-50-55-60-70++++. This is news driven stock and a de-listing candidate. Must buy in portfolio.

2. DELTA CORP(82.90): Buy for the target of Rs. 84-88-90-95-99-105++++. This is news driven stock. Must buy in portfolio.

3. HEXAWARE TECHNO(90.00): Buy for the target of Rs. 98-105-120++++. This is news driven stock. Must buy in portfolio.

4. KRBL(26.95): Buy for the target of Rs. 29-32++++.


Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.