MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 11TH FEB 2013 TO 15TH FEB 2013

Last week Indian equity markets settled sharply lower for the second consecutive week where Sensex and Nifty settled below the psychological market of 19600 & 5950 due to weak global cues, poor results and expectations, and downgrade in GDP @5% announced last week disappointed the market sentiment resulting in sharp decline in indices at the last hours of the weekly closing of the market. Sensex closed at 19484.77 & Nifty at 5903.50.

Going forward Indian markets will be highly volatile due to various events scheduled in this week. IIP data(Feb, 12th)  & WPI Inflation data (Feb, 14th) is scheduled during this week. Results of some heavy weight like SBI, ONGC, SAIL,  etc shall be in the lime light. Markets will look up and gradually catch the pre-budget rally from the mid of February as the  budgetary session in the Parliamentary commences from 21st February 2013. 

Buying in Large & Mid Cap shares is suggested on every fall. Shares like SBI, Reliance, HDFC, TCS, Infosys, Aegis Logistics, Bata, Deltacorp, Trent, Lupin, Sun Pharma etc are very good to buy in delivery.

Technically Nifty has shed almost 3.70% from its recent high of 6111.80 made on 29th January 2013. Now Nifty shall get strong support at 5800, breach of which shall bring Nifty to 5650 changing the short term trend of Nifty to negative. Hence all long position should be held with the stop-loss of 5800.

FOR THIS WEEK:
No trade zone for the Nifty is 5870-5950.
If Nifty breaks 5870, Short Nifty/Buy PE 5900 & PE5800, it may go further down to 5840 & 5800. Keep 5950 as Stop-Loss.
If Nifty breaks above 5950,  Buy Nifty/Buy CE 6000 & CE6100, it may go further up to 6030 & 6120. Keep 5870 as Stop-Loss.


FOLLOWING SHARES ARE GOOD TO BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM DELIVERY HOLDING (45-60 DAYS):

1. SUN TV(469.60): Buy for target of 490-500-550++

2. UNITED SPIRIT(1912.85): Buy for target of 2000-2440-2800++

3. DCM(79.30): Buy for target of 90-98-110++

4. L&T(1509.35): Buy for target of 1550-1580-1620-1660++

5. JM FIN(19.50): Buy for target of 22-24-28-30++++

6. GODREJ IND(311.85): Buy for target of 322-336-340-350-360+++

ASTROLOGICALLY: Market will be bullish from the mid of Feb to Feb last.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 28TH JANUARY 2013 TO 1ST FEB 2013

Last week Indian Stock Markets settled lower due to poor result by Tata Motors and chaos of carnage in reality companies like HDIL and IVRCL. Volatile sessions amid the uncertainties of rate cut by RBI kept the sentiments of investors on the cautious mode. Sensex closed at 20103.53 and Nifty at 6074.65.

Going forward the participants shall have keen watch on the RBI policy meet scheduled on 29th January 2013. Rate cut of 0.25% is expected and any thing against this shall bring large moves on the either side. If there is more than 0.25% rate cut, then the market shall celebrate the cheer and we shall witness the same on indices reaching the all time high in near future, on the other hand if the builti-in expectation is brought to jolt with RBI procrastinating or deferring the same on inflation concerns, markets shall witness a sharp correction of 150-200 points in Nifty in weeks to come.
Another major trigger shall be the F&O settlement on 31st January. If Nifty manages to settle above 6100-6150 then we shall witness new highs very soon in the form of pre-budget rally. However we shall keep in mind that markets shall consolidate in the range of 5750-6180 in normal circumstances till the pre-budget rally starts...

After talking to the various analysts and fund managers it is concluded the one should be buyer in the market and every dip should be utilized to accumulate the quality large-cap and mid-cap shares. They expect markets to make new highs before Union Budget 2013.

Technically speaking the broader range of market in terms of Nifty is with the resistance of 6150 and support of 5940. Short term trend of Nifty remains bullish above 5940. A fall below this would indicate reversal of short term up-trend and Nifty may test the next support level 5800-5820. Hence all long positions should be held with a strict stop-loss of 5940.
Profit booking could be seen around 6100-6150 and a break of this levels could bring next significant move in Nifty(to 6250-6350++) (which may come if rate cut by RBI is more than 25bps) else in normal circumstances Nifty may move in the short term range of 5940-6150.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY AND HOLD AND ADD ON DIPS FOR A DELIVERY PERIOD OF 45-60 DAYS TO 4-6 MONTHS:

1. AEGIS LOGISTICS(168.05):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 1000++ in investment account. Short term target of 178-188-196-210+++++ in trading account.

2. L&T FIN HOLDING(85.55): Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 1000++ in investment account. Short term target of 90-94-100 +++++ in trading account.

3. L&T(1607.30):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 4000++ in investment account. Short term target of 1680-1720-1760-1800+++++ in trading account.

4. RCOM(86.10):Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 200++ in investment account. Short term target of 90-94-100+++++ in trading account.

5. NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS(64.30): Buy for the medium to long term holding target of 250++ in investment account. Short term target of 68-72-76+++++ in trading account.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. 

  

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21st JANUARY 2013 TO 25th JANUARY 2013

Indian Stock Market closed higher on the last day of the previous week , where Sensex closing above 20,000 for the first time in 2 years. Market was led by oil & gas sector while I.T shares were down due to disappointing guidance by Wipro. Sensex closed at 20039.04 and Nifty at 6064.40 both up almost 2% over the week. 

Going forward, Indian Markets are likely to continue the momentum, which commenced with the initiation from the government side to partially de-regulate the diesel prices. However going forward there remains some uncertainty regarding the RBI's monetary policy stance in the upcoming policy meet in last week of January 2013. Looking at inflation figures , some senior person has remarked that RBI may not cut the rate of interest in its January policy. This has created a sense of apprehension in the market. On the result side heavy weight results were better than expected led by Reliance. This shows the optimism may reflect on screen. This week we shall see the important results like LT, HUL, HDFC, Maruti, NTPC, etc.

Its important to point out here that inspite of many challenges and apprehensions Indian Stock Market continued the rally so far, we have seen the GAAR issues, global issues, Fiscal Cliff of America and many others, but all of them were unable to stop the inflow of foreign funds in India. This is a very clear indication that India has a relatively  higher edge over other investment destinations in Asia Pacific. 
After talking to various fund managers and analysts review its could be concluded that Indian Stock Market shall continue to march and  we shall see new top very soon, may be before budget. Hence the buy on dips and holding the portfolio could prove beneficial and reward significantly. We shall see 6300++ and 21500++ where we shall review of holdings. Buying shall be done in shares like HDFC, CESC, NTPC, RELIANCE, SBI, DELTACORP for investment purpose.

Technically speaking the experts say, "the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a positive rally of almost 9% in a time span of two months. The short term trend of Nifty is still positive and it is likely to test 6180 in the extremely short term. However a breach of 5910-5900 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may go down to 5800-5650 in the short term. (This could happen if RBI defers the rate cut in January end policy meet). Hence Long position could be held only with the stop-loss of 5910-5900. 

FOR THE COMING WEEK:
No trading range of the Nifty is 5950-6090.
Go long in the Index(Future/Call Options) if Nifty sustains above 6090 for the extreme short term target of 6130-6180-6220+++, keeping Stop-Loss of 6040-6010.
Go short in the Index(Future/Put Options) if Nifty breaches below 5950 for the extreme short term target of 5910-5820-5650, keeping Stop-Loss of 6010-6030.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY IN SHORT TERM DELIVERY (45-60 DAYS):

1. RELIANCE(898.95): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 920-40-960-980-1000+++

2. UNITED PHOS (141.10): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 150-156-160+++

3. CERA SANITARY(439.60): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 450-480-520+++

4. RCOM(83.25): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 86-92-99+++

5. WANBURY(32.90): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 35-38-42-45+++

6 J.P.POWER(35.70): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 36.50-38.20-39.40+++

7. AKZO NOBEL(985.65): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 1000-1080-1120-1160+++

8. SHALIMAR PAINTS(128.95): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 140-145+++

9. BERGER PAINTS(160.20): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 175-180+++

10.  NTPC(164.50): Buy the share in both long term delivery hold and short term buying for the target of 175-180-185-190+++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING 7TH JANUARY 2013

Surprisingly after a last minute deal pieced together by US politicians to avoid the fiscal cliff  sent a wave of optimism gave a much relief to market participants resulting in rise in global as well as domestic indices. In the first week of January 2013, Nifty closed above 6000 levels after the gap of 2 years signalling the undertone bullishness in the market. Nifty closed at 6016.15 & Sensex at 19784.08 with a weekly gain of around 1.75% over the previous week.

Going forward Indian Markets is likely to remain range bound due to lack of major triggers. Corporate earnings scheduled to begin next week may induce in stock specific moves.

IIP data is scheduled on 11th January 2013 may have minimal impact on markets as the expectations of rate cut by RBI on 29th January 2013 is already priced in the market. Market may gradually approach to 6150-6200 levels in Nifty by then. Hence our buy on stock specific approach with adding more on dips is maintained.

For last 8 months I have been in the view to be buyer on every dip and now it could be felt clearly the this strategy has been right....

Technically, the analysts hold the view "The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the range of 8.20% in a time span of one and half month. The short term trend still looks positive. The immediate short term resistance of Nifty is around 6030-50 and a conclusive breach of this level is likely to take Nifty higher to 6180-6250 in the extreme short term. Hence hold the long positions in trading with stop-loss of 5950. 

FOR THIS WEEK:

No trading range of the Nifty is 5950-6050

Go long in Nifty above 6050, keeping stop-loss of 5950, for the target of 6120-6180-6250.

Go short in Nifty below 5950, keeping stop-loss of 6030, for the target of 5870-5800-5750.

FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY IN TRADING ACCOUNT FOR 45-60 DAYS OR INVESTMENT OF 6-8 MONTHS:

1. SAINT GOBAIN(37.50): Buy for the target of Rs. 45-50-55-60-70++++. This is news driven stock and a de-listing candidate. Must buy in portfolio.

2. DELTA CORP(82.90): Buy for the target of Rs. 84-88-90-95-99-105++++. This is news driven stock. Must buy in portfolio.

3. HEXAWARE TECHNO(90.00): Buy for the target of Rs. 98-105-120++++. This is news driven stock. Must buy in portfolio.

4. KRBL(26.95): Buy for the target of Rs. 29-32++++.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 31ST DEC 2012 TO 4TH JANUARY 2013

Indian Capital Markets in reaction to the global sentiments affected by the much said major issue of Fiscal Cliff in US. But the buzzing question is what is Fiscal Cliff and what will be the material impact in global as well as Indian markets.

Let us find what is "Fiscal Cliff" ?

The Fiscal Cliff Explained

“Fiscal cliff” is the popular shorthand term used to  

 describe the conundrum that the U.S. government will  

face at the end of 2012, when the terms of the Budget 

Control Act of 2011 are scheduled to go into effect.

Among the laws set to change at midnight on December 

31, 2012, are the end of last year’s temporary payroll tax 

cuts (resulting in a 2% tax increase for workers), the end 

of certain tax breaks for businesses, shifts in the 

alternative minimum tax that would take a larger bite, a 

rollback of the "Bush tax cuts" from 2001-2003, and the 

beginning of taxes related to President Obama’s health 

care law. At the same time, the spending cuts agreed 

upon as part of the debt ceiling deal of 2011 will begin to 

go into effect. According to Barron's, over 1,000 

government programs - including the defense budget 

and Medicare are in line for "deep, automatic cuts."

In dealing with the fiscal cliff, U.S. lawmakers have a 

choice among three options, none of which are 

particularly attractive:

• They can let the current policy scheduled for the beginning of 2013 – which features a number of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to weigh heavily on growth and possibly drive the economy back into a recession – go into effect. The plus side: the deficit would fall significantly.
• They can cancel some or all of the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts, which would add to the deficit and increase the odds that the United States could face a crisis similar to that which is occurring in Europe. The flip side of this, of course, is that the United States' debt will continue to grow.
• They could take a middle course, opting for an approach that would address the budget issues to a limited extent, but that would have a more modest impact on growth.

Can a Compromise be Reached?

The oncoming fiscal cliff is a concern for investors since 

the highly partisan nature of the current political 

environment could make a compromise difficult to reach.

 This problem isn't new, after all: lawmakers have had 

over a year to address this issue, but Congress – mired 

in political gridlock – has largely put off the search for a 

solution rather than seeking to solve the problem 

directly. In general, Republicans want to cut spending 

and avoid raising taxes, while Democrats are looking for 

a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. 

Although both parties want to avoid the fiscal cliff, 

compromise is seen as being difficult to achieve – 

particularly in an election year. Currently, it appears that

 a meaningful deal won't be reached until after the 

December 31 deadline.

The most likely outcome is another set of stop-gap 

measures that would delay a more permanent policy 

change. Still, the non-partisan Congressional Budget 

Office (CBO) estimates that if Congress takes the middle 

ground – extending the Bush-era tax cuts but cancelling 

the automatic spending cuts – the result, in the short 

term, would be modest growth but no major economic 

hit.

Possible Effects of the Fiscal Cliff

If the current laws slated for 2013 went into effect 

permanently, the impact on the economy would be 

dramatic. While the combination of higher taxes and 

spending cuts would reduce the deficit by an estimated 

$560 billion, the CBO also estimates that the policy would 

reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by four 

percentage points in 2013, sending the economy into a 

recession (i.e., negative growth). At the same time, it 

predicts unemployment would rise by almost a full 

percentage point, with a loss of about two million jobs.

A Wall St. Journal article from May 16, 2012 estimates the 

following impact in dollar terms: “In all, according to an 

analysis by J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli, $280 

billion would be pulled out of the economy by the 

sunsetting of the Bush tax cuts; $125 billion from the 

expiration of the Obama payroll-tax holiday; $40 billion 

from the expiration of emergency unemployment 

benefits; and $98 billion from Budget Control Act 

spending cuts. In all, the tax increases and spending 

cuts make up about 3.5% of GDP, with the Bush tax cuts 

making up about half of that, according to the J.P. 

Morgan report.” Amid an already-fragile recovery and 

elevated unemployment, the economy is not in a position 

to avoid this type of shock.

The Term "Cliff" is Misleading

It's important to keep in mind that while the term “cliff” 

indicates an immediate disaster at the beginning of 2013,

 this isn't a binary (two-outcome) event that will end in 

either a full solution or a total failure on December 31. 

There are two important reasons why this is the case:

1) If all of the laws went into effect as scheduled and 

stayed in effect, the result would undoubtedly be a return

 to recession. However, Congress continues to work 

toward a deal that will alleviate the effects in some form.

 The chances that such a deal won't be reached at some 

point are slim.

2) Even if the deal does not occur before December 31, 

as appears likely, Congress can - and almost certainly 

will - act to change the scheduled laws retroactively to 

January 1 after the deadline.

At he same time, even a solution isn't 

necessarily positive, since a compromise

will likely to involve higher taxes or 

reduced spending in some form- both of 

which would help reduce the debt but

would be negative for economic growth.

With this as background, it is important to

keep in mind that the concept of "going 

over the cliff" is largely a media creation 

since even a failure to reach a deal by

December 31st doesn't means that a 

recession and financial markets across the

globe will crash.....