FINANCIAL ASTRO VIKAS

WELCOME TO HINDU ASTROLOGY AND VEDAS. THE APPLICATION OF TOOLS OF VEDIC ASTROLOGY ARE MULTI FOLD AND DYNAMIC. ALL ACTIVITIES OF LIFE CONCERNED WITH THE MATTER, MATERIAL, SPIRIT, SPIRITUAL, LIVING AS WELL AS NON LIVING IS STUDIES AND PREDICTED, VERY WELL. ASHTAK-VARG, SHODASH-VARG, GOCHAR CHAKRA, ETC ARE USED TO PREDICT THE COURSE OF FINANCIAL AND COMMODITIES MARKET WITH CERTAIN LIMITATIONS THIS BLOG IS AN ATTEMPT TO VIEW THE INDIAN MARKETS UNDER ASTROLOGICAL RADAR.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 28th JULY 2011-SETTLEMENT DAY

MARKETS OPENED FLAT AND NIFTY MADE HIGH OF 5591.70 AND THEN NIFTY CONTINUOUSLY FELL DOWN SLOWLY TO 5521.50 AND FINALLY CLOSED AT 5546.80, DOWN 28.05 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 18432.25 DOWN 85.97. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND MID-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS SLIGHTLY UP. NIFTY CONFIRMED THE BEARISHNESS AS IT CLOSED BELOW 5550 LEVELS.

TODAY BEING THE EXPIRY DAY, WILL BE FULL OF STOCK ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO SHORT AND LONG POSITIONS IN F&O STOCKS. HENCE NIFTY MAY TRADE IN A VOLATILE MANNER. FOR LAST 20-25 DAYS NIFTY HAS BEEN TAKING STRONG SUPPORT AT 5500. SO 5500 BECOMES THE CRUCIAL & STRONG SUPPORT. NOW IF NIFTY(SPOT) BREACHES 5510 THEN THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BE NEGATIVE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREE FALL TO 5300. ON THE HIGHER SIDE THE CRUCIAL RESISTANCE FOR THE NIFTY IS AT 5720, CROSS OVER WHICH MAY LEAD TO A VERY SHORT TERM RALLY TO 5900. HENCE ALL THE TRADERS SHOULD KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5500 FOR THE LONG POSITIONS IN FUTURE, OPTIONS AND SHORT-TERM DELIVERY POSITIONS.

NOW FOR TODAY: THE TRADING RANGE FOR TODAY SHALL BE 5515-5580. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5515 THEN NIFTY SHALL TOUCH 5500 AND THEN 5470. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY BREACHES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5580 THEN 5610 AND 5600 COULD BE TESTED.

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL NOT BE GOOD TO TRADE AND EARN PROFITS ON THE LONG SIDE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. MARKETS WILL BE WEAK AND TRADE LOWER DAY BY DAY. AVOID FRESH LARGE POSITIONS. THERE WILL BE DRASTIC FALL IN NIFTY VERY SOON. ASTROLOGICAL ALERT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE LARGE LEVERAGED POSITION IN CASH OR FUTURE. AVOID LONGS AND TRY TO REDUCE LONG POSITION ON ANY RISE.

HOW TO PLAY IN OPTIONS TODAY????

IF NIFTY BREAKS DOWN 5535, THEN BUY PE5500(AUG) AND THERE COULD BE GOOD GAINS OF 40-50 POINTS.

IF NIFTY BREAKS OUT ABOVE 5560, THEN BUY CE5500(AUG) AND THERE COULD BE GOOD GAINS OF 40-50 POINTS.

IF NIFTY OPENS NEAR 5500-5515-5530 RANGE THEN WAIT & WATCH AND BUY PE5500(AUG) AND HOLD FOR BOOKING IN AUGUST.

IF NIFTY OPENS NEAR 5570-5590 (CHANCES ARE LESS) THEN BUY PE 5600(AUG) AND HOLD FOR BOOKING IN AUGUST.

DERIVATIVE PLAY IN STOCK FUTURE/OPTIONS:

1. DISH TV AUG FUT(84.65): BUY ON ANY DIP/FALL OR AT CMP KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 80.90 FOR THE TARGET OF 86-88-90+++

2. IDBI AUG FUT(131.15): SHORT ON RISE OR AT CMP KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 134.40(CLOSING BASIS) FOR THE TARGET OF 125-122 VERY SOON.

NOTE: NO LONG/SHORT ROLLOVERS ARE SUGGESTED AS IT WILL BE A TRAP FOR BULLS & BEARS BOTH AND THE MARKETS MAY TRADE IN THE RANGE OF 5900-5200 IN AUGUST SERIES. THERE ARE CHANCES THAT NIFTY WILL DROP INITIALLY AND THEN THERE COULD BE RECOVERY FROM TIME TO TIME.

HOW TO PLAY IN SUCH CHOPPY & UNCERTAIN MARKETS?????
JUST KEEP ON ACCUMULATING THE GOOD QUALITY , GROWTH POTENTIAL STOCKS, WHICH WILL RALLY FAST WHEN MARKETS STABLE AFTER 2-3 MONTHS:

1. NIIT(55.60): BUY/ACCUMULATE THIS STOCK AT CMP AND ON EVERY FALL FOR MEDIUM TERM HOLDING OF 3-4 MONTHS. THE STOCK CAN TOUCH 75-80+++. A GOOD BUY.

2.PATNI COMP(328.30):
ALL THE WORST HAS BEEN PRICED IN THE COMPANY. BUY THIS STOCK AT CMP OR ON EVERY FALL FOR 2-3 MONTHS HOLD. TARGET COULD BE 380-400++ ON SURPRISE MOVES POSSIBLE.

3. LITL(18.55): BUY/ACCUMULATE THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 30++ BY NEXT 4-6 MONTHS. MUST BUY IN THE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO ALSO.

S.KUMARS NATION(56.55):
BUY THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL FOR 2-3 MONTHS HOLDING. THE STOCK COULD TOUCH 90+++ ON SOME NEWS FLOW.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 27th JULY 2011

MARKET FELL SHARPER AFTER RBI SURPRISED EVERY ONE BY HIKING REPO-RATE BY 50bps AGAINST THE EXPECTATION OF 25bps, IN CONTINUATION OF ITS ANTI-INFLATIONARY STANCE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5574.85, DOWN 105.45 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 18518.22 DOWN 353.07 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND ALMOST ALL SECTORS WERE IN RED.

IN FACT MARKETS HAVE SHOWN GOOD STRENGTH AFTER THE SURPRISE HIKE OF REPO-RATE BY RBI. IT HAS GIVEN UP THE GAINS OF MONDAY, HENCE IT HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN IF THE INDICES AND RATE SENSITIVE STOCKS HAVE BEEN BEATEN DOWN DUE TO WEAK GROWTH PROSPECTS, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS THE RANGE BOUND OUTLOOK FOR THE MARKET. STOCK SPECIFIC MOVEMENTS WILL CONTINUE AND SELECT STOCKS(OUT OF RATE SENSITIVES) WILL OUTPERFORM. GLOBALLY DEVELOPMENT OVER RAISING THE U.S. BORROWING LIMIT WOULD GIVE FURTHER DIRECTION TO MARKET. HENCE TILL 2ND AUGUST MARKETS SHALL BE RANGE BOUND AND THE RANGE SHALL BE 5470 ON THE DOWN SIDE AND 5740 ON THE HIGHER SIDE.

NOTE DOWN THIS RANGE 5470-5740 IS LIKE A "LAKSHMAN REKHA". BREAK ON EITHER SIDE AT ANY POINT OF TIME SHALL GIVE AT LEAST 100-200 POINTS MOVE.

RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TODAY SHALL BE 5540-5630, WHERE RESISTANCE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE AT 5655 & 5695 HOWEVER THE SUPPORT WILL BE 5500 AND 5470.

BEST IS TO KEEP AWAY FROM NIFTY OPTIONS AND INDICES TO TRADE TILL SETTLEMENT ON 28TH. HENCE NO CALLS NO PUTS.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD FOR TRADING S WELL AS DELIVERY:

1. GITANJALI(311.45): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 330++++

2. TALWALKARS(259.20): BUY FOR THE TARGETS OF 280+++

3. RUCHI SOYA(102.15): BUY FOR THE TARGETS OF 115+++

4. TCS CE1150(AUGUST): BUY AROUND 28-30 FOR THE TARGET OF 65-70Z+++

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 26TH JULY 2011

MARKETS SAW GOOD BUYING IN ALL SECTORS WITH HUGE VOLUMES, EVEN WHEN THE GLOBAL CUES WERE WEAK AS IT WAS EXPECTED. SENSEX ENDED AT 18871(UP 149 POINTS) AND NIFTY ENDED AT 5680(UP 46 POINTS), BOTH MID-CAP AD SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS UP AND MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE.

AS SAID EARLIER MARKET WAS EXACTLY IN THE SAME RANGE AND LINE AND MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5650. NOW THE MARKET IS POISED FOR SHORT TERM UP MOVE AND ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5750 WILL BE A GREAT SIGN FOR BULLS. NIFTY MAY MOVE 150-200 POINTS IF CROSSES 5750 AND TEST 5900-5950. HOWEVER THE MOVE WILL BE LED BY BUYING AND SHORT COVERING BOTH. AS SAID NIFTY SETTLEMENT ON 28TH JULY (THURSDAY) IS SUPPOSED TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5700. NIFTY MAY FIND LITTLE RESISTANCE AT 5755 & 5800 ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORT FOR NIFTY SHALL BE 5610-5600 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 5550.

THE KEY EVENT TO WATCH TODAY IS RBI'S MONETARY POLICY. WHICH SHALL BE OUT ANY TIME BETWEEN 11.30 TO 12.00 PM. BEFORE THAT MARKET MIGHT BE NERVOUS BUT POST POLICY MARKET MIGHT SEE SOME VOLATILE MOVES, NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO CROSS 5750, BUT WILL FACE RESISTANCE.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL HIKE REPO-RATE BY 25bps AND IF THE LANGUAGE OF THE RBI IS SOFT GOING FORWARD REGARDING THE TACKLING OF THE INFLATION, WHICH GIVES AN IDEA THAT INTEREST RATE CYCLE MAY BE PEAKING AROUND 8% (most probably in September) THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY POST POLICY AND NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER ABOVE 5750..........

IF THE RATE HIKE BY RBI IS 25bps AND THE LANGUAGE OF RBI REMAINS HAWKISH AS USUAL, AND IT SEEMS THAT RBI WILL KEEP ON HIKING RATES TILL INFLATION EASES, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF(chances of which are less) AND NIFTY WILL LOOSE THE STEAM AND MARKET MAY TAKE SHARP KNOCK DOWN.

HOWEVER UNDER A RARE CHANCE THAT RBI MAY PAUSE, AND WAIT FOR MORE CLEAR PICTURE FOR INFLATION TO EMERGE, THEN THERE WILL BE SHARP UP MOVE(as market has priced-in 25bps hike in rate) AND THERE WILL BE BUYING ALL ROUND. CONVERSELY IF RBI SURPRISES BY HIKE EITHER BY MORE THAN 25bps (say 50bps) OR HIKES CRR(chances are very very less) THEN MARKET MAY NOT DIGEST THIS AND GROWTH WILL BE HAMPERED MAKING THE SENTIMENT VERY POOR, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHARP FALL IN INDICES AND STOCKS.{There is remote possibility of this situation}

CONCLUSION: IT SHOULD BE OBSERVED THAT WHAT RBI FORESEE IN NEAR TERM INFLATION AND SPEAKS OF INTEREST RATE CYCLE. IN ALL POSITIVE SITUATION MARKET SHALL SEE UPWARD MARCH AND THOSE WHO HOLD NIFTY CALLS LIKE CE5500 & CE5600 SHOULD BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS AT 5750 AND IF MARKET MOVES ABOVE 5750 AFTER THE POLICY THEN BUY NIFTY CE5700(AUGUST SERIES).

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO ACCUMULATE AS THEY MAY GIVE HUGE VALUE IN MONTHS TO COME:

1. NIIT(56.10): BUY THIS STOCK FOR 3-4 MONTHS VIEW. SHORT TERM TARGET IS 70++ AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 90++( ALSO ADD ON DIPS, IF MARKET CORRECTS IN AUGUST).

2.LANCO INFRA(20.15): THIS STOCK IS NEAR 52-WEEK LOW. DOWN SIDE RISK IS NOW MINIMUM. AND THE UPSIDE HAS HUGE POTENTIALS. BUY THIS STOCK FOR SHORT TERM TARGET OF 30(1-2 MONTHS) AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 45++++(5-6 MONTHS). MUST BUY THIS SHARE IN HUGE QUANTITY.

S KUMAR NATION(57.80): BUY THIS STOCK FOR VERY-SHORT TERM TARGET OF 63-65++ AND MEDUIM TERM TARGET OF 98+++. A VERY POSITIVE NEWS FLOW WILL TAKE THIS STOCK RISING.

STOCK TO WATCH FOR UPSWING IN FUTURE/OPTION SEGMENT(5-6 DAYS-AUGUST SERIES):

LUPIN SL BELOW 448 TARGET 470++
HDFC SL BELOW 704 TARGET 730++
L&T SL BELOW 1845 TARET 1900+++

Monday, July 25, 2011

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 25TH JULY TO 29TH JULY

THE WEEK ENDED WITH SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SHALL BOOST THE SENTIMENTS GOING FORWARD. CABINET APPROVAL OF THE RIL-BP DEAL , COMMITTEE OF SECRETARIES(CoS) RECOMMENDED A PROPOSAL OF FDI (51%) INTO MULTI-BRAND RETAIL {However the Cabinet Approval is crucial for this,suppose to be in coming in Monsoon Session, where there could be opposition and dis-content by opposition leaders and parties and that may delay} WHICH SHOWS THAT GOVERNMENT HAS STARTED DOING SOME THING POSITIVE ON POLICY MAKING AND REFORMS, WHICH THE MARKET EXPECTS. BESIDES THE RETAIL SECTOR, THE OTHERS THAT AWAIT REFORMS LIKE FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS LED BY THE INSURANCE SECTOR. FERTILIZER SECTOR MAY ALSO SEE SOME POSITIVE SENTIMENTS DUE TO POLICY EXPECTATION. MAJOR COMPANIES WHICH SHALL GET THE BENEFIT MAY BE PANTALOON RETAIL, SHOPPERS STOP, REI AGRO, BLUE STAR ETC.. IN BANKING AND FERTILIZER SECTOR PRIVATE BANKS LIKE ICICI, KOTAK, KTK, KARUR VYASYA, DCB MIGHT GAIN AND RCF, GSFC, NFL MIGHT SEE ACTION IN THIS WEEK.

INDIAN RUPEE MIGHT SEE APPRECIATION BREAKING A TIGHT RANGE AFTER A LONG TIME, IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE REFORMS WHICH MIGHT OPEN THE FLOODGATES OF FDI IN VARIOUS SECTORS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO RENEWED VOLATILITY IN SECTORS WHICH COULD BE AFFECTED BY RISING RUPEE LIKE I.T, TEXTILE, PHARMA, HEAVY EQUIPMENTS, ETC. HOWEVER BANKING MAY APPRECIATE ON RISING RUPEE, SO BUYING IN BANKING STOCKS ON FALL WILL BE GOOD IDEA, IF RBI KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED.Hence any Policy announcement by the Government might give good trigger to the market.

ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT THIS WEEK IS MONETARY POLICY BY RBI, WHERE MARKET EXPECTS 25bps REPO RATE HIKE. ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD BE PEAKING OUT OF RATE HIKE CYCLE, WHICH MAY GO TO 8% REPO-RATE FROM CURRENT 7.5%, WHICH MEANS THAT RBI WILL WAIT AND WATCH INFLATION AND GLOBAL CONDITIONS, PAUSING ANY MORE HIKE THAN 50bps, IN DAYS TO COME. ITS IS IMPORTANT TO SEE WHAT KIND OF LANGUAGE RBI USES TO CONTROL THE INFLATION AND USING KEY POLICY RATES TO REGULATE THE MONEY SUPPLY. HENCE 2TH JULY MIGHT BE IMPORTANT DAY TO WATCH. IF THE RBI PAUSES TO HIKE RATE THIS TIME, MARKET COULD SEE SUDDEN SPURT OF MORE THAN 200 POINTS IN NIFTY TERMS, means Nifty could test 5900 if RBI pauses...

SINCE THERE WAS SOME KIND OF BAIL-OUT PACKAGE FOR GREECE LAST WEEK WHICH TRIGGERED THE GREEN COLOUR IN GLOBAL INDICES, MIGHT EASE THE INDIAN MARKETS THIS WEEK ALSO, HENCE ONLY ANY ADVERSE GLOBAL TURMOIL COULD SPOIL THE MOOD IN INDIA, ELSE WE COULD SET FOR HIGHER MOVE IN INDICES THIS WEEK. NIFTY COULD TEST 5700-5750 IN NIFTY AND 18900-19000 IN SENSEX.
QUARTERLY RSULTS OF COMPANIES LIKE RELIANCE, NTPC, JSW, MARUTI ETC COULD BE ON EXPECTED LINES, WITHOUT SURPRISES, HENCE RESULTS WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE MARKET MOOD GOING FORWARD.
ALSO AS JULY EXPIRY WILL BE ON 28TH AFTER THE POLICY, WE COULD SEE THE EXPIRY ABOVE 5700, AS THE OPTION AND OTHER DATA SUGGEST AS OF NOW.

HENCE FUNDAMENTALLY A OVERALL POSITIVE WEEK.....THE RANGE COULD BE 5500-5550-5700-5750. MARKET COULD GET ANY GOOD TRIGGER IF THERE IS , NO RATE HIKE, POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT BY GOVT.........

TRADING RANGE FOR TODAY SHALL BE 5605-5695. AS MARKET HAS CLOSED ABOVE 5635, AFTER BREAKING 5585( As said earlier, break above 5585, shall lead to 100-125 points rally), NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER TO 5700-5750. THOSE BUYING CALLS IN NIFTY (CE5500 & CE5600) COULD BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS AND HOLD REST FOR BOOKING AFTER 26TH JULY POLICY OUTCOME. IN MOVING UP NIFTY COULD GET RESISTANCE AT 5725-5755 ABOVE 5695, IN SUPPORT NIFTY SHALL HAVE 5585 & 5555 IF 5605 IS BROKEN.

STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK: THOSE HOLDING CALLS IN NIFTY SHALL BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS AT 5695 LEVELS AND THOSE WISHING TO BUY NIFTY/CE5600 SHALL WAIT FOR DIPS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, WHERE THEY COULD BUY TO BOOK PROFITS ON/AFTER 26TH JULY.

ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETS SUGGEST THAT NIFTY SHALL BE VERY VOLATILE THIS WEEK, HOWEVER THE BIAS OF THE MARKET SHALL BE UP. THERE WILL BE SUDDEN SHARP DROPS AND DIPS, WHICH SHOULD BE USED TO BUY CALL OPTIONS AND GET OUT QUICKLY IN SMALL PROFITS.
TAKING LARGE LONG POSITIONS IN DELIVERY AND FUTURE(S) FOR AUGUST SERIES IS NOT SUGGESTIBLE. NO LONG OR SHORT ROLL-OVERS ARE SUGGESTED IN AUGUST SERIES. A MERCURY GETTING RETRO ON 3RD MIGHT GIVE SHARP MOVE, PROBABLY A FALL, WHICH MIGHT BE DECPTIVE, HENCE AVOID TAKING AUGUST CALL NOW. AVOID ROLL-OVERS AND {ALERT ALERT ALERT: IF YOU ARE HAVING PROFITS IN ANY POSITION, BOOK IT AND GET OUT ANY TIME BEFORE 2ND AUGUST 2011}.

STOCKS WHICH LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR LONG TERM, SHOULD BE BOUGHT IF THERE COMES ANY DEEP CORRECTION IN AUGUST & SEPTEMBER:

1. RALLIS(156): IN SHORT TERM STOCK COULD MOVE TO 170-180-190 HOWEVER IN LONG TERM (1-3 YEARS) STOCK COULD MOVE TO 500!!!!!!!!

2. HERO HONDA(1822): IN SHORT TERM IT COULD HEAD TO 1900. LONG TERM TARGET OF 4000+++

3. V-GUARD(231): IN SHORT TERM STOCK COULD HEAD TO 250++ HOWEVER IN LONG TERM STOCK SHALL BE MULTI-BAGGER. PRICE TARGET OF 750-1000+++ IN 2-3 YEARS.

4. BLUE STAR(297):VERY MUCH BENEFICIARY BY FDI IN MULTI-BRAND RETAIL. GOOD EARNINGS AND FIIs BUYING WILL MAKE THIS SHARE 400 IN SHORT TERM AND 4000++ IN 2-3 YEARS. MUST BUY THIS ON EVERY SHARP CORRECTION FOR LONG TERM. JUST KEEP ON BUYING AND ACCUMULATING, MONEY COULD BE MULTIPLIED MANY-MANY TIMES. A VERY BULLISH STORY INSIDE.+++++++VE. BUY ONLY IF YOU HAVE TIME TO HOLD, LONG TERM 2-3-5 YEARS!!!!

5. PANTALOON(333): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 360++ AND LONG TERM 2-3 YEARS FOR TARGET OF 2500++++++

Friday, July 22, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 22ND JULY 2011

MARKET TRADED NEGATIVE BIASED IN A CLOSE RANGE. REALITY AND BANKING SHARES WERE DOWN AHEAD OF CREDIT POLICY BY RBI ON 26TH JULY. NIFTY ENDED AT 5542, DOWN 25 POINTS AND SENSEX ENDED AT 18436 DOWN 66 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND FIIs WERE NET SELLERS.MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS ALSO DOWN. SLUGGISH TRADE WITH POOR SENTIMENT DUE TO LACK OF BUYING INTEREST & NO CLEARCUT DIRECTION OF THE MARKET WAS SEEN.

NOW, MARKET IS IN WAIT & WATCH MODE, AHEAD OF CREDIT POLICY SCHEDULED TO BE HELD ON TUESDAY, 26TH JULY 2011. THOUGH MARKET HAS ANTICIPATED A RISE IN REPO RATE BY 25bps, BANKS HAVE URGED RBI NOT TO HIKE INTEREST RATE SO THAT THE CREDIT GROWTH IS NOT HAMPERED. ANALYST BELIEVE THAT MARKET HAS PRICED IN 25bps INCREASE IN REPO-RATE, WHICH IF NOT INCREASED BY RBI ON 26TH MEET, WILL TRIGGER THE MARKET TO BREAK OUT AT LEAST 300-350 POINTS IN NIFTY, TO TOUCH 5940 OR 6000 LEVELS. HOWEVER ANY HIKE TO THE TUNE OF 25bps SHALL MAKE THE MARKET DANCE WITH THE GLOBAL CUES WITH NEGATIVE BIAS AND ANY HIKE ABOVE 25bps SHALL BE KILLING IN THE MARKET SENTIMENTS. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF HIKE TO THE TUNE MORE THAN 25bps IS VERY VERY REMOTE. HENCE CREDIT POLICY SEEMS TO BE THE NEAREST TRIGGER IN THE MARKET, BEFORE WHICH MARKET SHALL MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 5525-5585, HAVING SUPPORT AT 5490 & 5440, WHILE RESISTANCE MAY BE THERE AT 5610 & 5655 IF NIFTY BREACHES 5585 LEVELS.
NIFTY MAY OPEN POSITIVE NEAR OR ABOVE 5585, HOWEVER NIFTY MAY TRADE IN A LIMITED RANGE WITH NEGATIVE BIAS. THERE COULD BE PROFIT BOOKING ON EVERY HIGHER LEVEL TILL 26TH JULY EVENT.

AFTER 26TH JULY, IF THERE IS NO HIKE, THEN NIFTY WILL BOUNCE BACK AND THERE WILL BE VERY GOOD RISE IN STOCKS FOR A SHORT TERM . NIFTY MAY RISE TO 5880-5940 LEVELS.

STRATEGY: THE BEST STRATEGY COULD BE BUYING CE5500 & CE5600 (JULY) FOR THE RALLY(IF ANY, FROM 26TH JULY) TILL SETTLEMENT DATE 28TH JULY 2011. SETTLEMENT OF THE NIFTY MAY TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5650-5700 ZONE OR HIGHER. THOSE WHO CAN TAKE RISK TO PLAY FOR THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BUY CALLS IN NIFTY. RISK REWARD RATIO IS IN FAVOR OF BULLS THAN BEARS GOING FORWARD. ONLY CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH IS THE LEVEL OF 5525 AND 5585 BREAK ON EITHER SIDE WILL BRING AT LEAST 100-125 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY, MAY BE UP SIDE TO 5700 OR BREAK DOWN TO 5400. SO KEEP WATCHING 5525 & 5585.

ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST THAT MARKET SHALL BE IN UPSWING FOR AT LEAST TILL 2ND AUGUST AFTER 25TH JULY.HENCE BUYING OF CALLS IN INDEX AND STOCKS SHALL GIVE PROFITS.THERE ARE 40% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG & NIFTY MAY NOT GO BEYOND 5600 OR SLIP DOWN BELOW 5500, USE YOUR OWN RISK APPETITE IN TRADE.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 21st JULY 2011

A POSITIVE START IN THE MARKET ENDED IN THE RED AFTER THE WIPRO NUMBERS WERE OUT. INDIAN MARKETS TOOK A SHARP FALL PHARMA, BANKING , AUTO & CAPITAL GOODS WERE DOWN. SENSEX ENDED AT 18502 (DOWN 151 POINTS) AND NIFTY AT 5567 (DOWN 46 POINTS) MARKET BREADTH WAS DOWN AND THE FIIs WERE NET SELLERS IN THE CASH MARKET.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER NIFTY IS STRUGGLING TO CROSS 5580 , WHERE 200 DEMA LIES. NIFTY TRADED IN BETWEEN 5645-5555 AND SETTLED AT 5567. RANGE FOR TODAY SHOULD BE 5525-5610 HAVING SUPPORT AT 5500-5490, BELOW WHICH 5440 WILL BE THE STRONG SUPPORT, IF NIFTY BREAKS 5525, ON THE OTHER HAND RESISTANCE FOR THE NIFTY IS AT 5655 & 5690-5710. FALL IN THE MARKET SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN SELLING AT THE RESISTANCE LEVEL AND GOING FORWARD MARKET MAY SHOW SOME MORE WEAKNESS. TODAY THERE COULD BE GREEN START AND NIFTY MOVING TO 5600 LEVELS, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SELLING PRESSURE AND NIFTY TO TRADE IN A RANGE. BUYING CALL OPTIONS MAY GIVE PROFITS AT THE END OF THE JULY SERIES. BUYING OF ANY STOCK FOR AUGUST SERIES IS NOT SUGGESTED.

ASTROLOGICALLY: THERE COULD BE A BREAKOUT OF THE TRADING RANGE IN THE DOWN SIDE STARTING FROM 3RD AUGUST WHEN MERCURY GETS RETROGRADE IN LEO, TRADERS, INVESTORS AND SPECULATORS ARE REQUIRED TO KINDLY REDUCE LEVERAGED POSITION IN DELIVERY STOCKS AND HOLD NO LONG POSITION IN FUTURE & OPTIONS.(KINDLY NOTE THAT I AM NOT SUGGESTING TO SHORT THE MARKET)THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG, SO CHANCES ARE BRIGHT THAT MARKET WILL CORRECT FROM 3RD AUGUST, IF NOT WE WILL REVISE OUR VIEW ON 1ST AUGUST.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 20TH JULY 2011

MARKET CLOSED WITH GAINS AT THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AFTER A SLACK START WITH SENSEX CLOSING 18654(UP 147 POINTS) AND NIFTY CLOSING AT 5614(UP 46 POINTS).MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS UP AND MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE.AS THE NIFTY TRADED IN THE RANGE OF 5557-5627AND SETTLED AT 5613 WITH POSITIVE BIAS, OTHER TECHNICALS ALSO INDICATE BULLISHNESS. NIFTY IS STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE LEVEL OF 200 DEMA YESTERDAY IT HAS SUCCEEDED ALONG WITH THE GAINING IN STRENGTH WITH 50 DEMA.

RANGE FOR THE NIFTY TODAY SHALL BE 5570-5660 AND NIFTY HAVING RESISTANCE BETWEEN 5690-5710, IF IT TRADES ABOVE 5650-60, HOWEVER THE SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY RESTS AT 5550, 5525 & 5500-5490.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, THAT THE BUYING OF THE CALLS OF NIFTY CE5500 & CE5600 SHALL GIVE PROFITS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONE SHOULD BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS ON THURSDAY.

FOLLOWING STOCKS AND FUTURES LOOKS GOOD:

1.ITC FUTURE(204.55): BUY AT CMP OR ON DIPS KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 199 FOR THE TARGET OF 212-215+++.

2.INFOSYS FUT(2756.85):BUY AT CMP OR ON DIPS KEEPING STOP-LOSS 2700 OF FOR THE TARGET OF 2900+++

3.GTL FUT(80.90):BUY AT CMP OR ON DIPS KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF FOR 75.00 THE TARGET OF 105+++. ONE CAN ALSO BUY CE80 AROUND 8-10 FOR THE TARGET OF 25++(NOTE: MAY RISE DUE TO SHORT COVERING. A RISKY CALL)

4.SBI FUT(2520.30):BUY AT CMP OR ON DIPS KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 2490 FOR THE TARGET OF 2550-2575-2600+++.

5.AXIS BANK FUT(1278.20):BUY AT CMP OR ON DIPS KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 1230 FOR THE TARGET OF 1370-1400+++

FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN CASH/DELIVERY:

1.HIND ZINC(137):BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 140++++ KEEP SL OF 134.90

2.SKUMAR(54.15):BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 58++++ KEEP SL OF 51

3.MUNDRAPORT(160.40): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 175++ KEEP SL OF 152.90

ASTROLOGICALLY:NIFTY SHALL BE VERY VOLATILE TODAY. THERE WILL BE DIPS, WHICH SHOULD BE USED TO BUY CE/NIFTY FUTURE. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A POSITIVE DAY.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 2-3 MONTHS & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 18TH JULY 2011 TO 22ND JULY 2011

)ITS CRUCIAL TIME FOR ALL THOSE WHO ARE ACTIVELY PARTICIPATING IN THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET. FOR LAST 18 MONTHS INDIAN MARKETS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED RELATIVE TO THE SENSEX EPS AND GLOBAL MARKETS. FOR QUITE SOME TIME, SAY LAST 7-8 MONTHS THE GLOBAL FACTORS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY BEEN WORRYING & HAUNTING THE INVESTORS, TRADERS AND OTHERS AS WHAT WILL HAPPEN ????

WILL MARKET BREAK-DOWN BELOW 5200 OR BREAK-OUT ABOVE 6000????

WHAT SHOULD I DO, IF THE MARKET REMAINS IN THE SAME BROAD RANGE?????

WHERE SHOULD I INVEST, GOLD, SILVER, M.F., STOCKS, BONDS, BANK F.D OR KEEP CASH IN SUCH A POOR TIME????

IF I BUY ANY STOCK IT COMES DOWN AND WHEN I HAVE SOLD IT HAS STOPPED FALLING???? NOT EARNED A SINGLE PENNY IN THE MARKET.

I HAVE HEARD IN T.V ANALYST RECOMMENDING TO BUY FOR LONG TERM BUT I HAVE BOUGHT SHARES 4-5 YEARS BACK, BUT STILL THEY HAVE NOT PERFORMED, EVEN THEY ARE BELOW THE PURCHASE PRICE, WHAT SHALL I DO? WHAT IS THE BENEFIT OF HOLDING FOR LONG TERM?

ANALYSTS SAY THAT THEY ARE BEARISH IN THE SHORT TERM BUT BULLISH IN THE LONG TERM, BUT HOW SHOULD I GET CONVICTION, WHEN THERE ARE SO MANY GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC UNCERTAINTIES????

WHO CAN BE BETTER GUIDE TO ME FOR ADVISORY? T.V CHANNEL, PAPER OR MAGAZINE, WEBSITES, BROKER'S RECOMMENDATION, SO THAT I CAN PICK BEST STOCK, WHICH IS RELATIVELY SAFE AND MAKE MY MONEY GROW ON SUSTAINED BASIS?????

ANSWER TO THESE QUESTION ARE VERY CRITICAL AND HARD, HOWEVER ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO REACH TO THE PROXIMITY OF TRUE AND FAIR VIEW, SO THAT IT COULD HELP TO CONCLUDE.

FOR THE SAKE OF THE CONVENIENCE ANALYSIS HAS BEEN DIVIDED IN FIVE PART:
1. Global Factors
2.Domestic Factors
3.Fundamental Factors
4.Technical Factors
5.Astrological Factors

1. GLOBAL FACTORS:There has been several global uncertainties these days, which are worrying the stock markets of the world for last few years, but they have become more grave with the afflux of time. The most recent and worrisome problem pertains to the EUROZONE. Greece will certainly have to take a hair cut on its rapidly expanding burden of sovereign debt. That means either there will be restructuring or technical default. They are trying to defer that for as long as they can, but given the debt trajectory of this small country and lack of indigenous manufacturing capacity, the likely hood that it will be very difficult to implement the fiscal austerity given the social backdrop in the Greece. Hence some restructuring or default is inevitable even though the world markets have anticipated this however, probably some surprises would still shake the market. Remember Markets don't like surprises. Now comes Spain and Italy.Global Analysts believes that Spain is more worrisome than Italy and Poitician around the world are driven by their own incentives which are very much dependant on the length of their respective election cycles.The short election cycles(say 2 years) are very destructive in terms of implementing decisive stretagies in dealing with the tough economic problems. They force politicians into a bailout mentally, simply at buying time and Europe is facing with similar problem, where there is stress on liquidity problem, and not on the solvency problem, which they actually have.Hence almost every European country is having prolems. This might lead to collapse of Euro and there will be knee-jerk reaction in the world markets, which will lead to pessimism among investors and lead ultimately to risk aversion. Now understand that 'RISK AVERSION' is never never liked by markets. FIIs investing in Emerging Markets may withdraw the funds aggressively on redemption pressure and that could lead to sharp correction in India too. 8000 crores have been pumped in by FIIs in july itself. IF THERE HAPPENS ANY THING LIKE THAT THEN THIS MIGHT LEAD TO SHARP CORRECTION AND SELLING ACROSS THE BOARD, WHICH MIGHT TAKE NIFTY BEOW 5200 MAY BE 4800 ALSO.

Coming to America, its very very important how QE3 comes. Its is to be seen if the US Congress doen't pass the debt borrowing increase limit then where does the FED find the money to buy back their own debt and securities and pump in the money back into the economy? Hence by 2nd August if they do not concluse their extension of borrowing then some of the international rating agencies might be forced to reduce the rating and it will have huge implications globally making the markets pretty volatile. This may force some sharp selling in the emeging markets by Hedge Funds and lead Nifty to drop down significantly. If the QE3 is given then the question comes, will there be allocation of funds in Emerging Markets. If such thing happend then in India, we might see sharp Rally in equities, surprising the investors.
Also China is trying to slow down which has its own impact on various commodities. This may bring down the prices of commodities and consequently high beta metal stocks may fall.

2. DOMESTIC FACTORS:Domestic issues like corruption, black money and other economic issues like interest rates, inflation, commodity price volatility and foreign exchange will continue to concentrate on the domestic sides of growth which are challenging.

The poor IIP numbers fr May 2011, at 5.6% clearly shows the signs of slowdown due to continuous hike in the interest rate by RBI. In order to contain the inflation at the cost of growth, shows the slackness on the part of government, dampens the sentiment in the stock market due to falling margins of the companies of all mojor sectors like banks, auto, real estate, etc.

Investors will aslo watch the progress of Monsoon rains after being 19% below last week.Weather Deptt. expect an improvement in the rainfall next week.

RBI will meet on 26th July for its review of inflation and interest rate hike. At this point of time, analysts are expecting a 25 bps hike but the developments in the Europe might change thier outlook. If the bad news continue to come from Europe the they think that there is possibility that RBI may pause instead of hiking that 25 bps interest as they are expecting. At most analysts believe that interest rate cycle shall peak out around 8% repo rate, which is currently at 7.5%. They expect WPI to remain in the range of around 9% untill september and then begin to moderate, but will still remain at fairly elevated levels. WPI which represents the input price pressures more tha the finished good price pressure may remain high and lead to interest rate not coming down in near future. NOW IF THIS HIGHER RATE OF INTEREST SUSTAINS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THEN ITS CERTAINLY GOING TO HURT THE GROWTH IN A DRASTIC MANNER. THERE MAY BE MORE CUTS IN GDP FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW.
This may lead to lack of buying by DIIs( which are already selling and not buying) and FIIs both. Again Nifty may fall below 5200 and drop to 4800 area. Hence this is the biggest domestic risk for which the market is on wait & watch policy.

3. FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS:Analysts believe a slowdown across the board in terms of EPS growth and that is both on the developed and emerging markets side. Many believe that EPS growth in emerging markets conomies will slow to about 18% in 2011 and 13% in 2012 from 38% the last year. However this could be revised up or down quite a bit hence these figures should be analysed keeping the view that going in the second half of the year is there any risk of disspointment at the end of the year? It may be 'Yes' or 'No', but for the time being there are more bit of risk. See the Infosys result. U.S reporting season will be very important as it will set the scene for the rest of the world as well. Hence here the earning numbers will guide the propects for stock picks. Fundamentally markets shall be range bound. The broad range of the markets shall be 20000 Sensex( 5900-6000 Nifty) on the higher side and 16000 Sensex (4800-4700 Nifty) on the lower side and IT HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE RANGE OF 17500 AND 19500.

HENCE THE ABOVE RISKS COME INTO PLAY SEPARATELY THEN THERE WILL BE GRADUALL DRIFT IN THE MARKETS TO 5200 OR BELOW AND ON THE OTHER HAND IF MARKET FINDS THAT THESE RISKS HAVE COME SIMULTANEOSLY THEN THERE WILL BE CUMULATIVE

4. TECHNITAL FACTORS:However technically marlet is trading between the 200 DMA (around Nifty 5730 & Sensex 19100) and 50 DMA(around Nifty 5500 & Sensex 18450). Hence market is trading above short & medium term average however below long term average (around Nifty above 5950 & Sensex 19800) which gives clear indication that though short term and medium term trend is up long term trend remain down, which shall be up only above the upper figures mentioned. There remains the strong resistance around 19000-19200 in Sensex and 5730-5760 in Nifty. Any close of Indices above the above zone will confirm the trend reversal (as all three trends-short,medium and long term, will be up) and then nifty could zoom to 6000-6100.
On contrary any close below 18000 in Sensex and 5400 in Nifty will result in break down to 17300 in Sensex and 5200 in Nifty. In decisive close below 17300/5200 in any unfortunate event(s) may lead to collapse of markets till 16400 in Sensex & 4800 in Nifty. Which is extreme possible case and remote, at which it will be BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR HUGE GAINS IN SHORT AS WELL AS LONG TERM.

CONCLUSION: After analyzing all the above factors, it could be concluded that it will be safe to remain relatively with higher cash rather than stocks, as there could be drop down any time (as no body knows about when the global risks creating havoc). One could remain invested with 20%-25% in stocks and rest in cash. Markets could move higher before it comes down in the short term however any significant dip below 5200 in Nifty could be a very good buying opportunity.......

ASTROLOGICALLY: Mercury will be retrograde from 3rd August(from Leo 7degree) till 26th August(Cancer 24degree): will be a remarkable period in the stock markets of the world. There will be a very big-big deception. In Hindi deception is called"Dhokha" and it could be termed as false breakout or false breakdown, which may lead to utter confusion and surprises.This period will support both Bulls and bears both. The range for the Nifty will be 6000++ on the higher side and/or 5300 or less on the lower side. There will be a tug of war between the bulls & bears and it will be very hard to earn in this market. Hence all the traders, punters, speculators are advised to trade less or stay out during the mercury retrograde. Mercury retrograde leads the market to no where. IF IT GOES UP FIRST THEN WILL GO DOWN AND THEN AGAIN COME BACK FROM WHERE IT HAS STARTED. Suppose Market is at 5500 when Mercury retrogrades, then it may first go upto 6000 then come back to 5000 and then again back to 5500 or conversely from 5500 to 5000 first then to 6000 and then to 5500, from where it has started.( This is an example to show how the mercury retrograde behaves and not the prediction)........ ....................
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NOTE: Reamaing................ in Part 2 to be given on Thursday 21st July,2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 19TH JULY 2011:
Negative Global cues caused Indian markets to trade under selling pressure. The Sensex closed at 18507 down 55 points and Nifty closed at 5567 down 14 points. Mid-cap and Small-cap index were up and FIIs were net sellers at the end of the day.

As it was expected that Nifty will be in the range bound trajectory with the narrow and it traded with the small range in between 5551-5596 with the low volume and settled at 5567. Trading range for today will be 5525-5610, with resistance at 5630 & 5670 on the support side Nifty may get at 5495-5500 and at 5440.Bias of the Nifty shall be weak today also.

Strategy for today: If Nifty opens weak today on poor global cues, one should buy Nifty Calls around 5500 levels. BUY CE5500(JULY SERIES) for booking profits on Wednesday and Thursday.

Astrologically: In this week Monday & Tuesday(18th July & 19th July) shall be weak. Wednesday(20th July) 1st half average side ways , buying in late hours. Very Bullish on Thursday(21st July) and sideways to flat on Friday(22nd July). Hence Buying CALLS(OPTIONS) & SELECT STOCKS on Tuesday on any dip shall definitely give profits on Thursday and Friday.

Following are some strategies in F&O:
1. BHEL CE1950(JULY): Buy this option around 40-45 for the short term target of 85-90+++ in this series.
2.Patel Engg Fut(July): Short this future around 151-154 with stop loss above 159 for the target price of 135 or lower in this series.