FINANCIAL ASTRO VIKAS

WELCOME TO HINDU ASTROLOGY AND VEDAS. THE APPLICATION OF TOOLS OF VEDIC ASTROLOGY ARE MULTI FOLD AND DYNAMIC. ALL ACTIVITIES OF LIFE CONCERNED WITH THE MATTER, MATERIAL, SPIRIT, SPIRITUAL, LIVING AS WELL AS NON LIVING IS STUDIES AND PREDICTED, VERY WELL. ASHTAK-VARG, SHODASH-VARG, GOCHAR CHAKRA, ETC ARE USED TO PREDICT THE COURSE OF FINANCIAL AND COMMODITIES MARKET WITH CERTAIN LIMITATIONS THIS BLOG IS AN ATTEMPT TO VIEW THE INDIAN MARKETS UNDER ASTROLOGICAL RADAR.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 31st MARCH 2011-EXPIRY DAY FOR MARCH SETTLEMENT

MARKET MANAGED TO CLIMB ON THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE DAY GAIN TO THE 5750++ CLOSING. INTRA DAY NIFTY TOUCHED 5800 AFTER 25TH JANUARY 2011. THATS THE POSITIVE SIGN FOR THE BULLS AND TRADERS.

NOW 5550-5500 SHOULD BE KEPT AS A STOP LOSS AND BUYING COULD BE STARTED FOR MORE HIGHER TARGETS OF 6000-6100. MIDCAP SPACE LOOKS MORE PROMISING THAN FRONT LINE.

INDIAN MARKETS CORRECTED MAINLY DUE TO 2 REASONS: INTEREST RATE AND CRUDE OIL. NOW MARKET IS EXPECTING THAT INTEREST RATE CYCLE IS PEAKING OUT AND SPECULATIVE RALLY IN CRUDE WILL ALSO FIZZLE OUT AS THE TENSIONS IN THE LIBYA MAY NOT SPREAD TO ALL MIDDLE EAST. FOR LAST 5 DAYS INDIAN MARKETS HAVE STRONG FIIs INFLOW NEARLY 4000 CRORES AS BANKS ARE ALSO RISING, THE UPSWING MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SOME TIME.

TODAY MARCH EXPIRY SHALL TAKE PLACE AT OR AROUND 5800 AND AS THE FINANCIAL YEAR WILL ALSO CLOSE, TO KEEP UP THE N.A.V HIGHER AND CLOSING OF THE YAER SHALL TAKE PLACE ON GREEN MARKETS. HENCE SELLING 5700 PUTS AND 5800 CALLS OF MARCH SERIES SHALL GIVE PROFITS TO THE LAST DAY TRADERS.

ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS IN TRADING LONG AT THIS POINT AS THE MARKET MAY CORRECT AFTER EXPIRY AND THEN RISE. HENCE WAIT FOR SOME SLIGHT CORRECTION TO 5650-5700 LEVELS TO INITIATE BUYING KEEPING THE STOP LOSS OF 5550-5500. HOWEVER MID-CAP SPACE SHALL BE THE FOCUS AND CORPORATE EARNINGS SHALL ALSO BE GIVEN THE PROPER ANALYSIS, WHICH SHALL START COMING IN FROM APRIL 2ND WEEK.

BANKS, I.T & PHARMA STOCKS ARE LOOKING GOOD IN BOTH FRONT LINE AND MID-CAP SPACE. FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD TO TRADE TODAY:

1. BANK OF BARODA( 961.45): BUY ON EVERY DECLINE FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 1000+++

2. TATACOFFEE(953.45): BUY ON EVERY DIP KEEPING 900 AS STOP LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 1000-1050++++

3. STERLITE IND(172.70): BUY ON DECLINE KEEPING 168 AS STOP LOSS FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF 178-180++

4. JET AIRWAYS(468.95) BUY ON DECLINE KEEPING 457 AS STOPLOSS FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF 490++++

5. TITAN FUTURE -APRIL(3878) BUY ON DECLINE KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 3700 FOR THE TARGET OF 4000-4200 VERY SOON. VERY POSITIVE+++++VE

6.VESUVIUS(321.00) BUY KEEPING 316 AS STOP LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 335++++++ VERY SOON

7. ITNL(237.10) BUY KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 228 FOR THE TARGET OF 246++++++++ VERY SOON

8. THOMAS COOK(54.65) BUY KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 50.50 FOR THE TARGET OF 60++++ VERY SOON.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 28TH MARCH TO 1ST APRIL 2011

NIFTY RALLIED 132 POINTS AND SENSEX 465 POINTS ON FRIDAY. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5650 FOLLOWED BY ALL ROUND BUYING AND SHORT COVERING AS THE MARKET BROKE THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE RANGE OF LAST TWO MONTHS.

NOW THE MARKET WILL TEST 200 D.M.A WHICH IS NOW 5690 AND 5750 MAY BE A VERY TOUGH RESISTANCE TO CROSS. NIFTY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS ABOVE 5750 IN HURRY AND IT MAY TAKE REALLY STIMULATING TRIGGERS TO MAKE THE FRESH UP MOVE ABOVE 5750. SINCE Q4 RESULTS ARE WILL START DROPPING IN FROM HERE ON TILL 2ND/3RD WEEK APRIL 2011. MARKET WILL CONSOLIDATE TO THE NEW RANGE 5750-5550. NOW BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL INVITE FRESH 200 POINTS MOVE. HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT NIFTY WILL DRIFT DOWN SIDE TO CONSOLIDATE.

IT IS WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT MARKET HAS STILL NOT GIVEN ANY CLEAR SIGNAL THAT DOWNWARD TREND HAS ENDED AND THE UP TREND HAS STARTED. STILL NIFTY IS IN BEAR MARKET AND THIS IS CORRECTIVE RALLY FROM 5170 AFTER A TIME WISE CORRECTION ( 2 MONTHS). HENCE 5650-5750 SHALL BE A GOOD RANGE TO EXIT ALL LONG POSITIONS AND SIT ON CASH. WAIT FOR CORRECTION TO END AND THEN START BUYING.

NO STOCKS ARE RECOMMENDED AT THIS LEVEL FOR TRADE & DELIVERY. WAIT & WATCH MARKET WILL BE VERY CHOPPY AND DECLINE VERY SOON

Friday, March 25, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 25TH MARCH 2011

INDIAN MARKETS SUSTAINED THEIR UP MOVE FOR CONSECUTIVELY THIRD TRADING SESSION SUPPORTED BY RALLY IN FINANCIAL, METAL, INFRASTRUCTURE, TECHNOLOGY, AND SELECT AUTO AND REALITY COMPANIES. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500.NEW LISTING- LOVABLE

LINGERIE OPENED STRONG AND ENDED UP

21.73% OVER THE ISSUE PRICE AT

249.55.NIFTY GAINED 42.15 POINTS TO

CLOSE AT 5522.40 AND SENSEX UP 144.58

POINTS CLOSED AT 18350.74

ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE BIAS OF THE MARKET IS TOWARDS THE POSITIVE SIDE AND ALL NEGATIVES HAVE BEEN PRICED IN THE MARKETS AND CRUDE OIL PRICES AND COMMODITY PRICES WILL LEAD THE INFLATION AND CAUSE OF WORRY.EVEN NOW WHEN THE CRUDE OIL PRICE IS AROUND U.S $105-106 INDIAN MARKETS ARE NOT PERFORMING BADLY AS INDIAN MARKETS HAVE ALREADY UNDERPERFORMED BOTH EMERGING AS WELL AS DEVELOPED MARKETS OVER LAST FEW MONTHS AND FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT THE GROWTH OF 15%-18% AND VALUATIONS AT 15 TIMES LOOKS REASONABLE. NOW IF CRUDE REACHES TO
140-150 ZONE MARKETS MAY TAKE TOLL

AND THERE COULD BE TESTING OF THE

LOWER EBB OF THE RANGE 5200-5100 OR

EVEN BELOW. HOWEVER THE LONG TERM

STORY REMAINS THE SAME.

AS THE NEXT WEEK IS SETTLEMENT WEEK.

WE ADVISE TO STAY AWAY FROM LARGE

LONG OR SHORT POSITIONS.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO

TRADE & INVEST FOR SHORT TERM

DELIVERY:

1. AURO PHARMA(199.85): STOCK HAS

CERTAIN GOOD NEWS, WHICH MAY GIVE

THE STOCK BOOST IN THE SHORT RUN.

BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 215-225+++

2. ASHOK LEYLAND(56.25): STOCK HAS

GIVEN A BREAK OUT FOR THE TARGET OF

59 KEEPING THE STOP LOSS OF 54

3. CASTROL(444.95): STOCK WAS UP 5.84%

AND MAY GO HIGHER TILL 460-480+++

4. GVK POWER(25.05), HCC(36.45) &

LANCO(38.00) ARE THE GOOD VALUE BUY

FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO INVEST FOR 2-

3 YEARS. THESE STOCKS ARE AROUND THE

LOWEST PRICES. BUY THERE INFRA STOCKS

FOR YOU LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.

5.CROMPTON GREAVES(265.20): BUY THE

STOCK FOR THE TARGET OF 290+++ WITH A

STOP LOSS OF 260 IN A SHORT RUN.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 24TH MARCH 2011

MARKET RALLIED FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY LED BY HEAVY WEIGHTS LIKE RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, INFOSYS AND BHEL. SENSEX ENDED AT 18206.16 UP 217.86 POINTS AND NIFTY ENDED AT 5480.25 UP 66.40 POINTS. BANKING STOCKS WERE IN THE LIMELIGHT SPECIALLY SUBSIDIARY BANKS OF SBI LIKE SBT & SBBJ. PHARMA STOCKS LIKE LUPIN & AURO PHARMA WERE ALSO HIGHER.

ANALYST EXPECT MARKET TO BE IN A RANGE OF 5300-5550 AND SEE FURTHER FIIs OUTFLOW IN MONTHS TO COME. THIS RANGE BOUND MOVEMENT FOR LAST 2 MONTHS IS SAID TO BE TIME WISE CORRECTION AND AFTER THIS THERE WILL BE SHARP PRICE CORRECTION, WHICH MIGHT COME AT ANY TIME ON BAD GLOBAL OR DOMESTIC NEWS. HENCE IT MAY NOT BE A SUITABLE TIME TO GO FOR THE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO BUILDING RATHER ONE CAN TRADE FOR THE SHORT TERM SWINGS WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IN THE INDIA GROWTH STORY IS MAINTAINED INTACT HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM SENTIMENTS REMAIN SKEPTIC AND UNCERTAIN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A REALITY CHECK IN THE OUTPERFORMING SECTORS LIKE PHARMA, IT ETC.,

BETWEEN FEAR AND GREED FEAR WILL DOMINATE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND THERE IS MORE DOWN SIDE RISK THAN THE UPSIDE MOMENTUM. FOR CONFIRMING THE REAL UP MOVE MARKET HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 5700-5800 AND THEN BREAK THE NEW HIGHS, CHANCES OF WHICH ARE VERY VERY BLEAK. HENCE ANY MOVEMENT IF NIFTY TO 5550-5600 SHOULD BE USED TO EXIT THE LONG POSITIONS AND SIT ON CASH. ANALYSTS ALSO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD BE MORE TIGHTENING IN THE EMERGING MARKETS AND INFLATION MAY REMAIN THE MAJOR CAUSE OF WORRY.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD TO TRADE FOR BOTH IN DELIVERY AND F&O:

1. BATA INDIA(357.45): RECOMMENDED 2 DAYS BACK THE STOCK WILL SEE SOME BIG UP MOVE IN DAYS TO COME FOR UNLOCKING ITS VALUE IN LAND BANK SOON. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 380-400+++ WITH A STOP LOSS OF 346.

2. J.B.CHEMICALS(133.75): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY AS IT COULD MOVE TO 145++. KEEP 129 AS STOP LOSS.

3. COAL INDIA(353.90): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY BOTH FOR SHORT & LONG TERMAS IT COULD MOVE TO 380++. IN THE SHORT TERM AND 600+++ IN THE LONG TERM.ALSO BUY ON DIPS HENCE NO STOP LOSS.

4.BHEL(1994.30): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY AS IT COULD MOVE TO 2080-2120++ IN A SHORT TERM AFTER ITS RESULT. KEEP 1940 AS STOP LOSS.

5. GAIL(466.50): THIS STOCK MIGHT OUTPERFORM IN THE SHORT TERM, IF THE MARKET KEEP ON RISING AND MOVES ABOVE 5550. SHORT TERM TARGET IS 480-500+++

6.SINGER(35.00): THE STOCK IS LIKELY TO MOVE TO 40-42 ON INFORMED BUYING BY THE PROMOTER, WHO IS HAVING MORE THAN 80% STAKE IN THE COMPANY.

7. MANDHANA IND(238.20): SOME INFORMED SOURCES CLOSE TO THE MANAGEMENT, COMPANY IS DOING EXTREMELY WELL. STOCK COULD MOVE TO 260++ IN THE SHORT TERM. KEEP THE STOP LOSS OF 230.

8.LUPIN(415.30): RECOMMENDED FEW DAY BACK AT AROUND 380-390 THE STOCK COULD MOVE TO 450-460++ IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY THE STOCK WITH A STOP LOSS OF 395.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 23RD MARCH 2011

TRIGGERED BY STRONG GLOBAL CUES MARKET WITNESSED A STRONG RALLY. NIFTY GAINED 49.10 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 5413.85 AND SENSEX WENT UP 149.25 POINTS TO SETTLE AT 17988.30. SECTORS LIKE OIL & GAS, INFRASTRUCTURE, AUTO, REALITY, METAL, TELECOM AND SELECT FINANCIAL COMPANIES PARTICIPATED IN THE RALLY.

THE DAY WAS MARKED WITH MAJOR EVENT OF WARRANT BUFFET COMING TO INDIA WITH HIS INVESTMENT PLANS FOUND INDIA TO BE LOGICAL INVESTMENT DESTINATION. GST BILL AND BANKING AMENDMEND BILL WAS PRESENTED IN THE LOK SABHA AND THE FINANCE BILL 2011 WAS PASSED, WITH SOME CRUCIAL CHANGES LIKE:

1. REDUCING DIVIDEND DISTRIBUTION TAX (DDT) THRESHOLD FOR FOREIGN COMPANIES TO 26%.
2. CUT IN EXCISE DUTY DUTY FOR COMPLETELY KNOCKED DOWN (CKD) AUTOMOBILE KITS TO 30% FROM THE PROPOSED 60%. EFFECT WILL BE POSITIVE FOR MARUTI AND M&M.
3. REMOVAL OF 5% TAX ON HEALTH SERVICES, DUR TO WIDESPREAD DEMAND TO WITHDRAW THE PROPOSAL. EFFECT WILL BE POSITIVE FOR FORTIS, WOCKHARDT, APPOLO HOSPITAL ETC.
4. ON THE BASIC 10% LEVY ON READYMADE GARMENTS, RELIEF WAS GIVEN IN THE FORM OF INCREASING THE TURNOVER BASED ABATEMENT FROM 40% TO 55%. ALSO IMPORT DUTY ON RAW SILK WAS FROM 30% TO 5% TO PUSH IMPORTS. ITS MAY NOT CHEER UP THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY, WHO ARE PROTESTING FOR LAST 22 DAYS FOR ROLL BACK THE DUTY COMPLETELY.PANTALOON RETAIL, TRENT MAY SEE SOME MOVEMENTS.
5. SEVEN COMPUTER PARTS WOULD BE EXEMPT FROM CUSTOMS DUTY. WILL BE GOOD FOR HCL COMPUTERS, &
6. IMPORTED COOKING COAL WOULD BE EXEMPT FROM CUSTOMS DUTY. COAL INDIA SAW BUYING INTEREST TODAY.

ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT UPSWING MAY NOT SUSTAIN AT THE HIGHER LEVEL AND MARKET WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO NEW LOWS SOONER OR LATER. HENCE THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY SHALL BE THERE AT THE SHARP CORRECTION WHICH MIGHT GET TRIGGERED AT ANY TIME ON BAD NEWS FLOW. 5600 SHALL BE VERY STIFF RESISTANCE AND 5300 AS A STRONG SUPPORT. NIFTY THOUGH MAY REMAIN RANGE BOUND IS LIKELY TO BREAK ON THE LOWER SIDE TO MAKE NEW LOWS, 5100 OR EVEN 4800. HENCE WAIT AND WATCH FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS & MONTHS MAY GIVE GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY ELSE ONE SHOULD CONSIDER BUYING ONLY WHEN NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE ABOVE 5600-5650 DECISIVELY.SUGAR STOCKS MIGHT SEE SOME RALLY IN DAYS TO COME AS EGoM HAS ALLOWED EXPORT OF 5 LAKH TONNES OF SUGAR.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO WATCH & TRADE FOR FUTURE/DELIVERY BASIS:

1. INDUSIND BANK(244.20): BUY THIS STOCK KEEPING THE VIEW OF SETTLEMENT DATE 31ST MARCH TARGET OF Rs.253++ WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.240

2. SAIL(161.65): BUY THIS STOCK KEEPING THE VIEW OF SETTLEMENT DATE 31ST MARCH TARGET OF Rs.166++ WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.158

3. PIRAMAL HEALTH (471.50): BUY THIS STOCK KEEPING THE VIEW OF SETTLEMENT DATE 31ST MARCH TARGET OF Rs.490 ++ WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.458.00

4. ESCORTS(143.00): BUY THIS STOCK KEEPING THE VIEW OF SETTLEMENT DATE 31ST MARCH TARGET OF Rs.150++ WITH A STOP LOSS OF Rs.138.00

5. TIMKEN INDIA(162.60): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY FOR 30-45 DAYS AS THERE WILL BE NEWS OF BUY BACK BY THE PROMOTERS. STOCK COULD MOVE TO 185+++

6. PIPAVAV SHIPYARD(79.20): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY FOR 30-45 DAYS AS IL&FS HAS ACQUIRED 7.7% STAKE IN IT. STOCK COULD REACH ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT (100+++) BY NEXT 45-60 DAYS. VERY +++++++++VE STOCK FOR SHORT TERM. MUST BUY

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK WEAK FOR NEAR TERM:

1. KIRI DYES(278.50): STOCK MAY CORRECT TO 260-255 IN THE NEAR TERM. ONE CAN SHORT ON INTRA DAY BASIS AS IT HAS NEGATIVE BIAS.

2. SKS MICRO(565.00): STOCK MAY CORRECT TO 530-520 IN THE NEAR TERM. ONE CAN SHORT ON INTRA DAY BASIS AS IT HAS NEGATIVE BIAS.

3.INFOSYS TECH(2947.00) STOCK MAY CORRECT TO 2870 TILL SETTLEMENT DATE IN THE SHORT TERM. ONE CAN SHORT IN FUTURE WITH STOP LOSS OF 3010. STOCK HAS NEGATIVE BIAS.

Monday, March 21, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 22ND MARCH 2011

NIFTY OPENED WITH THE GAP UP BUT ENDED LOWER AFTER A VERY VOLATILE AND DIRECTION LESS SESSION. NIFTY ENDED AT 5364.75 DOWN 8.95 AND SENSEX AT 17839.05 DOWN 39.76. EVEN IF THE ASIAN & EUROPEAN PEERS WERE TRADING STRONG ON BUYING IN BEATEN DOWN STOCKS AFTER A SELL-OFF IN PREVIOUS FEW SESSIONS ON REASONS LIKE INFLATION, HIGHER OIL PRICES AND JAPAN CRISIS INDIAN BOURSES FAILED TO SUSTAIN AT THE HIGHER LEVELS AND NIFTY CLOSED BELOW 5400.

ANALYSTS SAY THAT ONLY IF CRUDE TOUCHES USD $90-95 PER BARREL, THEN THE MARKET MAY GO UP BUT UNTIL THEN NIFTY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5330 AND 5560 KIND OF LEVELS, ON THE OTHER SIDE IF CRUDE TOUCHES USD $130-135 THEN NIFTY MIGHT TAKE A SHARP KNOCK TO 5100 OR BELOW.

AS SAID PREVIOUSLY THE BROAD TREND OF THE MARKET IS DOWN AND SENSEX AND NIFTY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT DOWN BY NEXT 3-4 MONTHS( MAY BE TO 4800 IN NIFTY & 16000 ON SENSEX) IT WILL BE HARD TO MAKE MONEY BY SHORTING THE MARKETS (NIFTY AND INDICES) FOR THE SHORT TERM. HENCE SELLING DEEP OUT OF MONEY OPTIONS LIKE 5000 PE AND 5600 CE WILL KEEP ON GIVING SMALL PROFITS.SOME SHORT TERM BUYING IN STOCKS COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR UP SWING IF NIFTY CROSSES DECISIVELY ABOVE 5450-5460.

FOLLOWING STOCKS NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SHORT TERM TRADE:

1. COAL INDIA (347.15): MAY RISE BY NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND BUY ON DIPS FOR DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 360-380++++

2. GUJRAT FLOURO (346.20): VERY BULLISH ON THIS COUNTER FOR THE TARGET OF 450+++ FOR THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS. FIIs ACCUMULATING AT EVERY FALL FOR LAST 3-4 MONTHS.

3. EXIDE (132.55): FOR VERY SHORT TERM WORST IS OVER. STOCK SHOULD BE BOUGHT FOR TARGET OF 140++ KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 129

4. SHREE RENUKA (70.05): FIRM GLOBAL PRICES MAY PUSH THIS STOCK HIGHER BY NEXT 3-4 MONTHS. STOCK COULD REACH 110++. FOR SHORT TERM TARGET IS 76+++

5. GAIL(450.45): BUY ON DIPS FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 465+++ KEEPING THE STOP LOSS OF 444.

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21st MARCH 2011 TO 25TH MARCH 2011

DOMESTIC MARKET HAVE TAKEN A SHARP DOWN TURN ON SPIKING OIL PRICES. NIFTY ENDED WEAK AT 5367.50 DOWN 79.25 POINTS AND SENSEX ENDED AT 17878.81 DOWN 271.06 POINTS AFTER THE FRESH RISE IN OIL PRICES DUE TO UNO PASSING RESOLUTION TO GEAR UP AGAINST LIBYA & GADDAFI. MOST ANALYST WERE WATCHING THE CRUDE OIL MOVEMENTS CAREFULLY THINKING THAT CRUDE WILL BOUNCE BACK WITH RENEWED ENERGY AND HURT MARKET SENTIMENTS. LOOKING AT THE LOSSES MARKED BY THE INDICES , IT SEEMS THAT ANALYSTS HAD RIGHTLY EXPRESSED CONCERNS OVER THIS ISSUE. CHINA RAISED IT RESERVE RATIO 6TH TIME ON INFLATION WORRIES DUE TO JAPANESE DISASTER.

IF THE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO TAKE HIGH JUMP THEN THE MARKET WILL TRADE IN A TIGHT RANGE OF 5400-5450 ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND 5100 ON THE LOWER SIDE. IF 5340 IS BROKEN THEN NIFTY WILL WITNESS A SHARP KNOCK TO FORM NEW LOW BY 50-100 POINTS TO AROUND 5100. RELIANCE WHICH FELL SHARPLY ON THE NEWS OF LOW OUTPUT FORECAST. ANALYST NOW VALUE RELIANCE TO TOUCH 950-900 BY COMING MONTHS. HENCE MARKET SHALL BE IN A TIGHT RANGE OF 5100-5450 FOR THIS WEEK, UNTIL AND UNLESS SOME THING IMPROVING OR DETERIORATING HAPPENS ON THE CRUDE OIL FRONT, OR JAPAN CRISIS FRONT OR DOMESTICALLY INFLATION AND POLITICAL ISSUES. OVERALL THE RANGE OF 5100-5450 SHALL BE MAINTAINED TILL Q4 RESULTS START DROPPING IN. RESULTS MAY GIVE THE FRESH DIRECTION AND STRENGTH TO THE MARKET, WHICH MAY EITHER RISE TO 5800 OR DROP BELOW 5000.

WHAT ONE SHOULD DO? AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT WISE TO CATCH THE FALLING KNIFE. WAIT TILL THE NIFTY COMES TO THE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5200-5170, THEN START BUYING KEEPING THE STOP LOSS OF 4950-25 AND WAIT FOR THE UP MOVE AFTER THE Q4 NUMBERS.

AGGRESSIVE TRADERS SHOULD BUY STRADDLE AND SPREADS:

STRATEGY 1: BUY 5300 CE AND 5300 PE BOTH AND WAIT FOR BOTH SIDE MOVES TO GIVE PROFITS.

STRATEGY 2: BUY 5300 PE AND SELL 5100 PE AND BOOK PROFIT & EXIT AT 5100.

STRATEGY 3: SELL 5500 CE AND 5200 PE AND WAIT FOR EXPIRY KEEPING THE STOP LOSS AT 5100 FOR PUTS AND 5500 FOR CALLS

Thursday, March 17, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 18TH MARCH 2011

RBI HIKED REPO RATE & REVERSE REPO RATE BY 25bps IN EXPECTED LINES BUT THE LANGUAGE WAS HAWKISH AS THERE IS A ROOM FOR MORE HIKES TO CONTROL INFLATION ON THE NEXT REVIEW OF CREDIT POLICY ON MAY 3RD 2011. THIS MADE MURKY SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AND IN ANTICIPATION FOR MORE RATE HIKE MARKET LOST THE GROUND AND THERE WAS PROFIT BOOKING WHICH MADE NIFTY TO CLOSE AT 5446.65. POLITICAL MESS, RISE IN THE YEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AND RISING CRUDE PRICES WERE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROFIT BOOKING AND WEAK MARKETS. SOME INSTITUTIONAL SELLING WAS SEEN IN LARGE CAPS LIKE RELIANCE, INFOSYS, WHICH BROKE BELOW 3000 DUE TO RISING YEN, AND SBI.

NIFTY HAS VERY NARROW RANGE OF TRADE BETWEEN (5400-5420) TO (5520-5535). BELOW 5420 SENTIMENT WILL BE VERY MURKY AND THERE WILL BE MORE DOWN SIDE OPEN TILL 5200. ABOVE 5550 SENTIMENT WILL BE BULLISH AND NIFTY MAY CROSS 5600 TO TOUCH 5700 ALSO. HENCE THE BROAD RANGE OF NIFTY IS 5200-5700.

THE BULLS ARGUMENT FOR GOING HIGHER FROM HERE:
1. THERE IS A CONTINUOUS INSTITUTIONAL BUYING BY BOTH FOREIGN & DOMESTIC.
2. MARKET BREADTH IS BROAD, WHICH MEANS THAT ENTIRE MARKET IS PARTICIPATING IN THE UP MOVE. HENCE THERE MAY BE A UP SIDE BREAK OUT.
3. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ADDITION IN THE OPEN INTEREST OF STOCK FUTURES.

THE BEARS ARGUMENT FOR GOING DOWN FROM HERE:
1. ONCE AGAIN THE COMMODITY PRICES LIKE COPPER ETC, HAVE STARTED RISING IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS. CRUDE OIL HAVE STARTED TO TRADE AROUND $100 OR ABOVE WILL BE NEGATIVE FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS.
2. VOLUME IN THE CASH & DELIVERY MARKET IS VERY LOW, SHOWING THAT LACK OF INTEREST AND PARTICIPATION WITH CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR MARKETS TO RISE.
3. SITUATION IN THE JAPAN COULD WORSEN AND THERE MAY BE HEAVY REDEMPTION PRESSURE BY JAPANESE INVESTORS. SEE THE RISE IN JAPANESE YEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS ALREADY SAID THAT MARKETS WILL BE WEAK & POOR TO TRADE BETWEEN 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH. SUPER MOON ON 19TH COULD CAUSE MORE NATURAL DISASTER IN DAYS TO COME. HENCE THERE WILL BE POOR SENTIMENT AND UNCERTAINTY LOOMING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET, WHICH WILL BE VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS. THIS MAY PUSH INDIAN MARKETS TO NEW LOWS ANY TIME!!!!!!!

TODAY MARKETS COULD OPEN HIGHER DUE TO GLOBAL CUES BUT THE MARKETS SHALL BE IN THE RANGE OF 5420-5535 ONLY. ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS IN CARRY OF HUGE TRADE BUT SHALL PARTICIPATE VERY LOW.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO TRADE AND WATCH FOR

FOR BULL & GOING LONG:

1. BOMBAY DYEING(354.55): THE STOCK HAS SOME NEWS OF LAND BANK SALE, MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 380-400+++++

2. IDEA (61.75): GOOD DELIVERY/ INTRADAY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 65-67+++. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 56.

3. LIC HOUSING FINANCE(198.90): GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 220+ IN THE SHORT TERM AND 300 IN THE MEDIUM TERM. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 184

4. LUPIN(392.45): GOOD DELIVERY/ INTRADAY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 400-408-420+++ IN THE SHORT TERM.KEEP STOP LOSS OF 380.

5. HDFC BANK(2181.50): GOOD DELIVERY BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 2220-2280+++. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 2140

6. INDIAN HOTEL(77.85): GOOD FOR DELIVERY BUYING AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE OR IN FALL FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTMENT TARGET OF 300++++++

FOR BEARS & GOING SHORT/SELL:( ONLY ON FALLING MARKETS OR WEAKNESS IN THE STOCK)

1. BANK OF INDIA(449.15): STOCK IS WEAK ON CHARTS AND COULD TEST 420 IN THE NEAR TERM. KEEP STOP LOSS OF 465

2. MARUTI(1165.10): STOCK MAY SHOW WEAKNESS AS YEN IS RISING AGAINST THE DOLLAR & THE RUPEE DUE TO JAPAN FACTOR. SHORT THE STOCK FOR THE TARGET OF 1100 OR LOWER WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 1210.

MARKET VIEW FOR 17TH MARCH 2011

MARKET BEHAVED POSITIVE TO THE TO THE GLOBAL CUES AND OUTPERFORMED TO THE ASIAN PEERS. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500 IS A POSITIVE SIGN FOR THE BULLS.

TODAY IS THE CREDIT POLICY REVIEW BY RBI AND MARKET HAS ANTICIPATED A HIKE OF 25 bps IN REPO & REVERSE REPO RATE. THERE ARE FOUR POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN THE POLICY:

1. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET BEING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BEFORE THE POLICY WILL RISE AFTER THE POLICY AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5560-80.

2. IF THERE IS 50bps OR MORE HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET WILL PLUNG TO DEEP RED AND NIFTY MAY BREAK 5450 MARK TO THE LOWEST POINT 5370 OR LESS. ( THIS SITUATION IS NEGATICE FOR THE MARKET)

3. IF THERE IS NO HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE THEN THE MARKET THEN THE MARKET WILL RISE ABOVE 5550 MARK TO 5600-5620 OR MORE AND THE BULLS WILL REGAIN THE MOMENTUM AND NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER IN THE NEAR TERM TO 5700-5750 ALSO( THIS SITUATION IS VERY GOOD FOR THE MARKET)

4. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE AND THE LANGUAGE OF THE RBI REMAINS HAWKISH AND MORE PRONE TO CONTROL INFALTION THEN THE MARKET WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE AND THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF LEADING NIFTY TO TOUCH LOWER LEVELS LIKE 5500-5450 (THIS SITUATION WILL BE NEUTRAL TO THE MARKET).

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE TILL FROM 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH.

FOLLOWING STOCKS TO BE WATCHED TODAY:

1. SPICE JET(39.75): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 46-50++

2. PRAKASH INDUSTRIES(76): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 86-95++

3. ORCHID CHEM (290): THIS STOCK MAY RISE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUY IN DELIVERY FOR TARGET OF 300-310-330++ (VERY STRONG BUY)

BUY BANKING STOCKS LIKE SBI, CANBANK, AXIS BANK & ICICI BANK IF THE MARKET REMAINS HIGHER AFTER TH POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT ELSE DONT BUY ANY BANKING STOCKS.

4. CANBANK(638.85): KEEP STOP LOSS OF 620 FOR THE TARGET OF 655++++

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 16TH MARCH 2011

JAPAN TOOK THE TOLL TODAY AND CORRECTED AROUND 12% FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER ASIAN MARKETS, WHICH WERE MODERATELY DOWN BETWEEN 1.5% TO 3.0%. COMMODITIES AND EUROPEAN & AMERICAN MARKETS ALSO FELL. THERE WAS EXTREME PESSIMISM IN THE MARKET HOWEVER INDIAN MARKETS RELATIVELY OUTPERFORMED.

AFTER THE INITIAL GAP DOWN OPENING AND KNEE JERK REACTION ONE TIME DURING THE DAY NIFTY MANAGED TO GO AROUND 5500 (5497.85) FROM THE BOTTOM OF 5373 HOWEVER CORRECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY TO CLOSE AROUND 5449.50,WHICH IS QUITE ENCOURAGING FOR THE BULLS. THE MOST STRIKING PART OF THIS RECOVERY WAS THAT IT WAS LED BY RELIANCE. STRENGTH IN RELIANCE INDUSTRIES SHOWS THAT THE MARKET IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL WEAKNESS AND PARTICIPANTS SEE 5400 AS A STRONG SUPPORT IN NIFTY. NOW 5600-5650 SHALL ACT AS A MAJOR RESISTANCE AND CROSSOVER ABOVE 5600-5650 SHALL SEE SHARP RISE TO 5700-5800 LEVELS. HOWEVER ANY CLOSE BELOW 5400 SHALL BE DEATH KNELL FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM. AS ALREADY ALERTED 5400-5600 IS NO TRADING ZONE AND ONE SHOULD NOT PARTICIPATE ACTIVELY IN THE MARKET BETWEEN THIS RANGE.

ONCE AGAIN IT IS REITERATED, THAT THIS MARKET IS IN THE BEAR PHASE AND WILL CORRECT SIGNIFICANTLY ANY TIME BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS HENCE THOSE WHO WISH TO INVEST FOR LONG TERM MUST WAIT TO GET THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY AROUND 5000 OR BELOW.

AS ALREADY CAUTIONED THAT PERIOD BETWEEN 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH IS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE SHARE MARKET, SEE THE IMPACT THAT ASIA, AMERICA, EUROPE ARE IN DEEP RED.INDIA IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL TURMOIL DUE TO FALLING CRUDE, METAL AND RUBBER PRICES AND GOOD ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS. HENCE ANY SIGN OF STABILITY IN THE COMMODITY MARKET AND RISE IN CRUDE AND METAL PRICES MAY TRIGGER THE SHARPER CORRECTION IN DAYS TO COME.

CRUDE PRICE THOUGH FALLING WILL RISE SHARPLY AFTER THE STABILITY AND DEMAND FROM JAPAN WHICH SHALL BE NEGATIVE FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS. ALSO THE CORPORATE EARNING FIGURES SHALL GUIDE THE MARKET AFTER THE RBI MEET ON 17TH MARCH. MARKET IS PRICING IN THE RISE IN RATES BY 25bps TO 50bps.

ASTROLOGICALLY: TODAY MARKET SHALL OPEN WITH A GAP DOWN AND REMAIN WEAK FOR THE FULL DAY. RANGE FOR THE MARKET SHALL BE 5400-5518.ONE SHOULD GO LONG ABOVE 5500 IN NIFTY WITH A DEEP STOP LOSS OF 5370.

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO WATCH AND TRADE TODAYON THE LONG SIDE:

1. CEAT(106.40): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++

2. J.K.TYRE(96): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 104-110++

3. VIP IND(590.25): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 630-645++

4. RCOM(101): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++

5. GAIL(340.65): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 360-375++

6. YES BK(265.65):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 290-300++

7. INDSIND BK(244.50):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 265-70+

SHORTING COULD BE DONE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTERS:

1. JSW STEEL (909.05): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 870-850

2. TATA MOTORS(1142.10): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 1080-1050

MARKET VIEW FOR 15TH MARCH 2011

NIFTY MADE A GOOD COME BACK AFTER OPENING FLAT TO WEAK START YESTERDAY. VARIOUS FACTORS LED THE RISE AND SHORT COVERING IN THE MARKET AT THE END OF THE DAY SHOWING THAT MARKET IS PREPARING ITSELF FOR THE RBI POLICY MEET EVENT.OVER ALL IT WAS A GOOD DAY WHERE NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500.

NOW THE RESISTANCE RANGE IS 5600-5650, WHICH SHALL BE TESTED BY THE MARKETS VERY SOON HOWEVER NIFTY MAY SEE VOLATILITY AHEAD OF RBI MEET ON 17TH MARCH AND POST POLICY, WHICH HAS PRICED IN 25bps TO 50bps HIKE IN THE REPO AND/OR REVERSE REPO RATE NIFTY MAY RALLY TO 5700-5800+++, IF THE OTHER FACTORS LIKE OIL PRICES AND GLOBAL MARKETS SUPPORT. HENCE THERE WILL BE A SHORT TERM RALLY IN THE NEAR TERM AFTER THE RBI MEET, TILL THEN THERE WILL BE A RANGE OF 5400-5600. CRUDE IS LOW BECAUSE OF FALL IN DEMAND FROM JAPAN. HENCE INDIAN MARKETS ARE ENJOYING THE PARTY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN THE MIND THAT AS THE NUCLEAR REACTORS ARE SHUT IN THE JAPAN THERE WILL BE HUGE RISE IN THE DEMAND OF THE CRUDE OIL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SHARP RALLY IN CRUDE AND METALS LIKE COPPER, ETC. HENCE OIL & GAS COMPANIES LIKE ONGC, CAIRN RELIANCE, HINDOIL, SELAN ETC WILL SEE SHARP RISE FROM NEXT WEEK.

FOR TODAY FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY:

1. BAJAJ AUTO(1383.30): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 1565. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

2. IFCI(53.70): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 56-60. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

3. MARG LTD(105.40):SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

4. RELIANCE(1018.35): INTRADAY TARGET OF 1030-35. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

5. BPCL(570.45):SHORT TERM TARGET OF 575. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.DAY TRADERS MAY KEEP STOP LOSS AT 556 ( ALSO BULLISH FROM NEXT WEEK)

6. IFB IND(122.35): SHORT TERM TARGET OF 150. LOOKS GOOD TO BUY ON FALL.

Monday, March 14, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 14TH MARCH 2011 TO 18TH MARCH 2011

ASTROLOGY GIVES IDEA OF THE BASIC HAPPENING IN THE COSMOS AND ITS IMPACT ON EARTH. TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN, POLITICAL SITUATION IN INDIA, FALL IN GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES AND SO ON...., BUT ITS REALLY VERY COMPLEX TO STUDY THE EFFECT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS.HOWEVER BROAD IMPACT COULD BE KNOWN IN ADVANCE TO HIGH DEGREE OF ACCURACY.

EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN LED TO FALL IN THE ASIAN MARKETS AND SO IN INDIA BUT THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE FAR GOOD IN THE LONG TERM AS THERE WILL BE NEW GENERATION OF NEW DEMAND CYCLE, MORE EMPLOYMENT OF RESOURCES, INCREASED GLOBAL BUSINESS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY & GROWTH IN JAPAN AND REST OF THE WORLD.

FALL WAS PREDICTED FROM 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH AND ALSO CAUTION WAS GIVEN TO ALL THOSE WHO TRADE ACTIVELY. AFTER THE WAVE OF PESSIMISM THERE WILL BE SHARP RECOVERY BUT BEFORE THAT THERE WILL INTENSE SELLING WHICH MAY GIVE GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR MEDIUM TERM.THIS IS THE REASON WHY STRADDLE IN NIFTY OPTIONS WAS SUGGESTED LAST WEEK FOR BUYING BOTH CALL(S) AND PUT(S) IN 5400 & 5300 STRIKE PRICES. THOSE WHO HAVE MADE POSITIONS WILL EARN SUFFICIENT AMOUNT ON FALL & RECOVERY OF MARKETS.

RANGE OF NIFTY NOT SUITABLE FOR TRADING IS 5380-5400 TO 5550-5600. NOTE THIS RANGE VERY CLEARLY, THOSE WHO WILL SHORT OR LONG IN THIS RANGE WILL HARDLY EARN ANY PROFIT IN A CONSISTENT MANNER, THATS WHY IT WAS ADVISED TO SIT ASIDE.

AS THE MARKET IS IN BEAR PHASE, NIFTY IS SUPPOSED TO GO BACK BELOW 5200 ANY TIME, UNLESS IT BREAKS ABOVE 5650 ON STRONG UPMOVE, ONE HAS TO WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE MARKET AT THE LOWER LEVELS 5200-5000 OR ABOVE 5650. THOSE HOLDING STOCKS MAY EXIT AT AN OPPORTUNITY NEAR 5550-5600 WITH STOP LOSS OF 5650-5700.

FOR TODAY THERE WILL BE GAP DOWN OPENING AND NIFTY WILL DRIFT LOWER AND MAY FIND STABILITY NEAR 5380-5400.SECOND HALF SHALL BE MORE WEAK THAN FIRST HALF. SELLING/SHORTING ON RISE SHALL BE THE BEST PLAY FOR TODAY WITH STOP LOSS OF 5500-5520(INTRA-DAY BASIS).