Friday, August 12, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 12TH AUGUST 2011

MARKET OPENED ON WEAK NOTE ON GLOBAL CUES AND RECOVERED DURING THE NOON AS ASIAN MARKETS RECOVERED HOWEVER GAVE UP THE GAINS AND CLOSED SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE DRAGGED BY THE BANKING, REALITY & SOME FRONTLINE STOCKS. FOOD INFLATION ACCELERATED TO 9.90% FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30, 2011 AGAINST 8.04% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5138.30, DOWN 22.70 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 17059.40, DOWN 71.11. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN MARGINALLY.


TODAY MAJOR EVENT TO GUIDE INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS IIP DATA AND GLOBAL CUES. AT THE TIME OF THE WRITING AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MARKETS ARE GREEN GIVING SIGNAL FOR INDIAN MARKETS TODAY. ON THE BACK OF STRONG ASIAN MARKETS INDIAN MARKETS SHALL OPEN IN GAP-UP & GREEN. HOWEVER THE BEFORE THE IIP DATA MARKETS COULD SLIP A LITTLE( IT MEANS THAT MARKET COULD COME TO NEUTRAL FROM TOP, BUT NOT NECESSARILY GO DEEP NEGATIVE) AND AFTER IIP DATA MARKETS WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE, UP-DOWN, UP-DOWN, HOWEVER THE BIAS OF THE MARKET SHALL REMAIN POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL. HENCE BUYING COULD BE DONE IF THE MARKET IS SEEN NEGATIVE AS THE CLOSING WILL BE EITHER ON POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL SIDE.
NIFTY HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE NARROW BAND OF 5120-5200 FOR LAST TWO DAYS. NOW IT IS EXPECTED TAT THE NIFTY SHALL MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 4940-50 TO 5330-50, BREAK OF EITHER SIDE SHALL MAKE 200 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY EITHER TO 4700 OR 5500 APPROXIMATELY. 


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AT 5100  & 5180 RESPECTIVELY. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5100 ON THE DOWN SIDE IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 5070 AND THEN 5025. HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5180 THEN 5220-5250 SHALL BE THE TARGET.


STRATEGY FOR TODAY:


STRATEGY1: BUY CE5200 , IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5200 FOR THE TARGET OF 5220-5250. BUY PE5100, IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 5100 FOR THE TARGET OF 5070-5025. (The bias of the market shall be up today, hence if market opens with Gap-up then wait for dip and buy calls then. Don't jump in trade in the opening)


OR 


STRATEGY2: BUY CE5100 & CE5200, ON EVERY DIP & FALL, AS THE BIAS OF THE MARKET SHALL BE UP THE CALLS SHALL GIVE PROFIT TODAY. KEEP 5100 AS STOP-LOSS FOR ALL SHORT TERM LONGS.


NOTE TO OPTION PLAYERS: TODAY THERE WILL BE HIGH VOLATILITY 
WHICH SHALL GIVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO BOTH CALL & PUT PLAYERS.


STOCK OPTIONS/FUTURE PLAY:
BUY INFY CE2450 @50-55 & SELL INFY CE2550@20-22. CMP: 2440.60. STRATEGY WILL BE PROFITABLE WHEN CLOSING PRICE IS 2485 ON THE EXPIRY OF THE SERIES ON 25TH AUGUST, HENCE 14 DAYS LEFT. IN THIS STRATEGY MAXIMUM PROFIT: 8200-8400 & MAXIMUM LOSS: 3800-4000.
 (TRY ONCE YOU WILL GET ADDICTED TO THIS STRATEGY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)


ASTROLOGICALLY: SUN'S CHANGE OF SIGN NEXT WEEK AND RETRO MERCURY INGRESSING THE CANCER SHALL GIVE GOOD UP-SWING WITH VOLATILITY  IN THE MARKET. HENCE THOSE WHO WISH CAN BUY CE5200 & CE 5300 WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5100.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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