INDIAN MARKET CLOSED WITH MODERATE LOSES ON THE F&O EXPIRY DAY WITH HUGE VOLATILITY. THE SENSEX CLOSED AT 16146, DOWN 138 POINTS & NIFTY CLOSED AT 4839, DOWN 49 POINTS. BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP CLOSED IN NEGATIVE BY LESS THAN 1%. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND FIIs WERE NET SELLERS WHILE DIIs WERE NET BUYERS. INDIAN MARKET WITNESSED THE SELLING EVEN WHEN THE GLOBAL MARKETS WERE TRADING IN GREEN. AS SAID FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF NIFTY FOR AUGUST SERIES, AGAINST OUR EXPECTATION OF SETTLING AT OR BELOW 4800, NIFTY TOOK SUPPORT OF 4840.
AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE FED CHAIRMAN BERNANKE MAY BE RECOMMENDING IN THE FAVOR OF QE3. IT MAY IMPACT THE GLOBAL COMMODITY & EQUITY MARKETS IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. THE RECENT RISE IN THE GOLD WAS ON THE EXPECTATION OF THE SAME. QE3 IF IT GIVEN, THEN THE COMMODITY PRICES OF CRUDE AND METALS MAY RISE, WHICH MAY HIKE THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN EMERGING MARKETS, INCLUDING INDIA. THIS MAY KEEP THE DOMESTIC INFLATION OF INDIA ON THE HIGHS FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, WHICH MAY KEEP RBI TO FOLLOW STRICT & HAWKISH CREDIT POLICY, KEEPING THE HIGH INTEREST RATE FOR THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FURTHER SLOW DOWN IN GROWTH, CONSEQUENTLY THE MARGINS OF THE COMPANIES(using commodities as Input) MAY HIT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EARNINGS DOWNGRADES MAY PUSH THE MARKETS LOWER & LOWER AND AMID POORER SENTIMENTS. HENCE QE3 MAY NOT BE GOOD FOR INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS. SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT QE3 MAY BRING THE FUNDS FLOW IN EQUITIES OF THE EMERGING MARKETS, DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGHER GROWTH POTENTIALS AND CHEAP VALUATIONS AFTER CORRECTION. HOWEVER IN INDIAN CONTEXT IT MAY BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE, HOW THE QE3 IMPACTS.
DOMESTICALLY IF THE MOVEMENT HAILED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE, SETTLES WITH THE GOVERNMENT AMICABLY, THEN THE PENDING BILLS OF ECONOMIC POLICY MAY BE TAKEN, WHICH SHALL IMPACT THE MARKET POSITIVELY. IF THE ISSUE IS NOT SETTLED SOON, THEN IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CONCLUDE THE MONSOON SESSION(AS IT ENDS ON 8TH SEPTEMBER, 2011) WITH SOME POLICY ACTION, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DELAY TILL WINTER SESSION, MAKING THE SENTIMENT MORE MURKY & POOR.
THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5300-4800. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING 300 POINTS MOVE. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF BREAK DOWN OF THE INDEX ARE MORE THAN GOING UP. BOTH GLOBAL & DOMESTIC EVENTS SHALL DECIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. LETS WAIT & SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT BY NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.
FOR THE COMING PERIOD/WEEK: AS THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY LIES AT 4790, SLIP BELOW THAT MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4650 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM & 4500 ANY TIME THEREAFTER. HOWEVER ANY MOVE ABOVE 5020 WOULD OPEN GATE FOR 5200. THOSE TRADERS WHO HAVE MAINTAINED LONGS SHOULD KEEP 4790 AS STRICT STOP-LOSS.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4840 AND RESISTANCE AT 4920. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4840, IT MAY SLIP TO 4810 & 4790, HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4920 THEN 4965 & 5020 WILL BE THE TARGET.
FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD BE LOOKED FOR POSITION IN FUTURE FOR TRADING POSITION ONLY(NO INVESTMENT ADVISE):
1.SKUMAR FUT: BUY ABOVE 45 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 42.80 FOR THE TARGET OF 48-50++.
2.IDEA FUT: BUY ABOVE 100.10 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 97.30 FOR THE TARGET OF 102-105++.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
AS SAID EARLIER THE U.S ECONOMIC POLICY SYMPOSIUM TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT TO GOVERN THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE FED CHAIRMAN BERNANKE MAY BE RECOMMENDING IN THE FAVOR OF QE3. IT MAY IMPACT THE GLOBAL COMMODITY & EQUITY MARKETS IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. THE RECENT RISE IN THE GOLD WAS ON THE EXPECTATION OF THE SAME. QE3 IF IT GIVEN, THEN THE COMMODITY PRICES OF CRUDE AND METALS MAY RISE, WHICH MAY HIKE THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN EMERGING MARKETS, INCLUDING INDIA. THIS MAY KEEP THE DOMESTIC INFLATION OF INDIA ON THE HIGHS FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, WHICH MAY KEEP RBI TO FOLLOW STRICT & HAWKISH CREDIT POLICY, KEEPING THE HIGH INTEREST RATE FOR THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FURTHER SLOW DOWN IN GROWTH, CONSEQUENTLY THE MARGINS OF THE COMPANIES(using commodities as Input) MAY HIT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EARNINGS DOWNGRADES MAY PUSH THE MARKETS LOWER & LOWER AND AMID POORER SENTIMENTS. HENCE QE3 MAY NOT BE GOOD FOR INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS. SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT QE3 MAY BRING THE FUNDS FLOW IN EQUITIES OF THE EMERGING MARKETS, DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGHER GROWTH POTENTIALS AND CHEAP VALUATIONS AFTER CORRECTION. HOWEVER IN INDIAN CONTEXT IT MAY BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE, HOW THE QE3 IMPACTS.
DOMESTICALLY IF THE MOVEMENT HAILED BY SRI ANNA HAZARE, SETTLES WITH THE GOVERNMENT AMICABLY, THEN THE PENDING BILLS OF ECONOMIC POLICY MAY BE TAKEN, WHICH SHALL IMPACT THE MARKET POSITIVELY. IF THE ISSUE IS NOT SETTLED SOON, THEN IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CONCLUDE THE MONSOON SESSION(AS IT ENDS ON 8TH SEPTEMBER, 2011) WITH SOME POLICY ACTION, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DELAY TILL WINTER SESSION, MAKING THE SENTIMENT MORE MURKY & POOR.
THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5300-4800. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING 300 POINTS MOVE. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF BREAK DOWN OF THE INDEX ARE MORE THAN GOING UP. BOTH GLOBAL & DOMESTIC EVENTS SHALL DECIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. LETS WAIT & SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT BY NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.
FOR THE COMING PERIOD/WEEK: AS THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY LIES AT 4790, SLIP BELOW THAT MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4650 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM & 4500 ANY TIME THEREAFTER. HOWEVER ANY MOVE ABOVE 5020 WOULD OPEN GATE FOR 5200. THOSE TRADERS WHO HAVE MAINTAINED LONGS SHOULD KEEP 4790 AS STRICT STOP-LOSS.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4840 AND RESISTANCE AT 4920. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4840, IT MAY SLIP TO 4810 & 4790, HOWEVER IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4920 THEN 4965 & 5020 WILL BE THE TARGET.
FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD BE LOOKED FOR POSITION IN FUTURE FOR TRADING POSITION ONLY(NO INVESTMENT ADVISE):
1.SKUMAR FUT: BUY ABOVE 45 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 42.80 FOR THE TARGET OF 48-50++.
2.IDEA FUT: BUY ABOVE 100.10 WITH STOP-LOSS OF 97.30 FOR THE TARGET OF 102-105++.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.