Monday, August 8, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 9TH AUGUST 2011

MARKET STARTED WITH THE GAP DOWN OPENING AS EXPECTED ON NEGATIVE GLOBAL CUES DUE THE FEARS OF REPERCUSSIONS OF DE-RATING OF AMERICA BY S&P. HOWEVER INDICES HAVE ALMOST ERASED THE LOSSES FOR THE DAY WHEN RENEWED SELLING DUE TO SLIP OF DOW FUTURES MADE THE MARKET SLIP AT THE CLOSE AS S&P STATED THAT IT COULD LOWER THE SOVEREIGN RATINGS OF ASIA PACIFIC NATIONS. INDIAN MARKETS ENDED WEAK. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5118.50, DOWN 92.75 & SENSEX CLOSED AT 16990.18, DOWN 315.69. THE MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX CLOSED IN RED. HUGE SELLING WAS WITNESSED ON REALITY,METAL,POWER & I.T. STOCKS.


INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS IN THE GRIP OF FEAR FROM THE DECLINING US & EUROPEAN MARKETS. GOING FORWARD THE US FOMC WILL HAVE MEETING ON TUESDAY, 9TH AUGUST NIGHT(I.S.T) FOR QE3. IT WILL MUCH REPERCUSSIONS ON THE GLOBAL COMMODITY & STOCK MARKET. DUE TO EASE OF LIQUIDITY FUNDS WILL FLOW-IN TO CHASE THE COMMODITIES AND EQUITIES AROUND THE GLOBE. THIS COULD TRIGGER THE STOCK MARKETS TO POSITIVE SIDES AND FIIs COULD START INVESTING IN INDIAN EQUITIES ALSO. HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT MONEY WILL FLOW-IN MORE TO COMMODITIES LIKE GOLD & SILVER THAN EQUITIES. HOWEVER IT IS PROBABLY TOO SOON FOR ADDITIONAL POLICY EASING BY THE FED, AS IT MAY LEAD TO HIGHER INFLATION ACROSS THE GLOBE, WHICH MAY COMPRESS THE CORPORATE MARGINS, SUSTENANCE OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES, ETC., AFFECTING THE INDIAN STOCK MARKETS.


THERE COULD BE SOME BUYING COMING IN AROUND THE LOWER LEVEL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHORT COVERING RALLY IN THE NEAR TERM, POST QE3, IF IT HAPPENS, LEADING NIFTY TO 5350-5400 ON 10TH, 11TH OR 12TH AUGUST.


AS SAID EARLIER 5200 WAS THE TREND DECIDING LEVEL AND NIFTY CLOSED FAR BELOW 5200 YESTERDAY, NOW THE SHORT TERM CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY LIES AT 5050. NOW IF NIFTY BREACHES 5050, THE DOWNWARD MOVEMENT WILL BE CONTINUING AND NIFTY MAY TEST THE LEVELS OF 4960 & 4840 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SOME INDICATORS (LIKE STOCHASTIC & RSI) ARE GIVING OVERSOLD SIGNAL  OF NIFTY. SO SOME PULL BACK RALLY TO 5350 COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.


STRATEGY FOR THE DAY: IF NIFTY OPENS GAP DOWN NEAR 5000 LEVELS, BUY NIFTY CALL OPTIONS, CE5000 & CE5100 TO BOOK PROFIT ON WEDNESDAY & ON-WARDS ON ANY CORRECTIVE RALLY. KEEP 4950 AS STOP-LOSS TO ALL LONG IN CALLS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID EARLIER TUESDAY COULD SEE SHARP FALL AND WEDNESDAY A SHARP BOUNCE BACK BUYING IN CALL OPTIONS ON DEEP CUT SHALL  GIVE SOME PROFIT FOR SURE.


I MAINTAIN MY BUYING STANCE IN  STOCKS WHICH  ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED YESTERDAY. BUY THE STOCKS OF YOUR OWN CHOICE IN PARTS ON EVERY DIP AND DON'T WAIT FOR MARKET TO BOTTOM-OUT, AS NO BODY CAN PREDICT CORRECTLY IN CONSISTENCY. CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR, BROKER AND START THE CHERRY PICKING NEAR NIFTY 5000.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.







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