Thursday, August 4, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 4TH AUGUST 2011

ON WEAK GLOBAL CUE, MARKETS OPENED GAP DOWN AND CONTINUED TO TRADE LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ENDED LOWER. FEARS OF CREDIT DOWNGRADE BY RATING AGENCIES AND WEAK CONSUMER SPENDING AND MANUFACTURING DATA HAD DENTED SENTIMENTS IN U.S MARKETS AND THUS GLOBAL MARKETS WERE DOWN. NIFTY ENDED AT 5404.80, DOWN 51.75  AND SENSEX ENDED AT 17940.55 DOWN 169.34. BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE DOWN.MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE. HOWEVER AT THE END OF THE DAY SOME STOCKS WERE OFF THEIR LOWS AND INDICES INCHED UP FROM THE LOWS, SHOWING SOME BUYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND SUPPORT AROUND 5400.


GOING FORWARD MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE AND GLOBAL CUES TO GENERALLY DIRECT THE MOVE OF THE INDICES. CORPORATE RESULTS SHALL GUIDE THE MOVE OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS.


NIFTY HAS CORRECTED ALMOST 5.68% FROM ITS RECENT HIGH 5702.25 IN SIX TRADING SESSIONS. VERY CRUCIAL SHORT TERM SUPPORT EXISTS AT 5325-5320. IF 5325-5320 IS BROKEN THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY WILL FURTHER GO DOWN TO 5200 LEVELS.(Actually this may happen any time in August 2nd week as the U.S. market progresses further.). TECHNICALLY SOME INDICATORS (like Stochastic & RSI) ARE GIVING OVERSOLD SIGNAL  OF NIFTY. HENCE A PULLBACK RALLY TO 5500-5520-5550 COULDN'T BE RULED OUT. TRADERS HAVING LONG POSITIONS SHOULD KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5330. 



FOR TODAY, NIFTY HAS A SUPPORT AT 5375 AND STRONG RESISTANCE AT 5440. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5375 IT MAY TEST 5350 & 5330. HOWEVER ON THE UPPER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAIN ABOVE 5440(RESISTANCE), NIFTY MAY TEST 5470-5500-5520-5550.


STRATEGY FOR NIFTY FUTURE/OPTION PLAYERS:


BUY NIFTY CALL CE5400 & CE5500 IF NIFTY (SPOT) SUSTAINS ABOVE 5425 AND BOOK PROFIT AT 5445-5470-5500-5520.


BUY NIFTY PUT PE5400 & PE5300 IF NIFTY(SPOT) BREAKS BELOW 5375 AND BOOK PROFIT AT 5355-5335-5310-5300.


NOTE: THERE ARE FAIR CHANCES THAT MARKET WILL BOUNCE BACK ANY TIME TODAY, HENCE KEEPING 5375 AS STOP-LOSS ONE SHOULD BUY CALL OPTIONS IN NIFTY(CE5400 OR CE5500) OR NIFTY FUTURES.


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS PREDICTED EARLIER THAT MARKETS MAY BE WEAK TILL 4TH AUGUST AND RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN FROM 5TH AUGUST. PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST THAT MARKETS WILL SEE SLIGHT SUPPORT COMING FROM 4TH AUGUST AND 5TH AUGUST SHALL BE A BULLISH DAY.
HENCE AFTER 2 DAYS OF BEARISH MOVE AND MAKING MONEY IN PUT OPTIONS ITS BETTER TO BUY CALL NOW.


NO TRADING AND  DELIVERY POSITIONS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED TODAY.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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