Friday, August 5, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 5TH AUGUST 2011

MARKETS OPENED IN THE GREEN AND AFTER TOUCHING THE INTRA-DAY HIGH LOST THE GROUND, FOLLOWED BY THE RELENTLESS SELLING PLUNGED SHARPLY IN THE LAST HOUR OF TRADE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5331.80, DOWN 73.00 POINTS & SENSEX CLOSED AT 17693.18, DOWN 247.37. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX CLOSED IN RED.


INDIAN MARKETS WERE IN THE GRIP OF FEAR FROM THE DECLINING U.S & EUROPEAN MARKETS COUPLED WITH DECLINE IN EARNINGS DUE TO DEMAND SLOW-DOWN ON RATE HIKES. FINANCE MINISTER HINTED THAT GOVERNMENT MAY LOOK AT THE DUAL PRICING FOR DIESEL. 15% OF THE DIESEL PRODUCED IS CONSUMED BY PASSENGER VEHICLES SO THAT THE GOVERNMENT MIGHT REMOVE THE SUBSIDY ON DIESEL FOR PASSENGER CARS. THIS GAVE UP MOVE TO COUNTERS LIKE BPCL, GAIL.


GOING FORWARD, SHARP DECLINE IN U.S MARKETS YESTERDAY NIGHT MORE THAN 4%, SHALL CERTAINLY GLOOM THE INDIAN MARKETS AND SENSEX AND NIFTY SHALL OPEN LOWER FOR MORE THAN 1% EACH. NIFTY MAY TARGET 5200.


NIFTY HAS GIVEN CORRECTION OF 6.65% IN A TIME SPAN OF JUST 7 TRADING SESSIONS. AS SAID EARLIER THE SHORT TERM CRUCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY LIES AT 5300. IF NIFTY BREACHES 5300, THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE AND IT MAY FURTHER GO DOWN TO 5210. HOWEVER SOME LEADING INDICATORS(LIKE STOCHASTIC & RSI) ARE GIVING OVERSOLD SIGNAL  OF NIFTY. SO THE SHORT TERM PULL BACK RALLY TO 5520 IS NOT RULED OUT,PROVIDED NIFTY DOESN'T CLOSES BELOW 5170. 



FOR TODAY NIFTY SHALL OPEN GAP DOWN, DUE TO GLOBAL CUES, IF NIFTY BREACHES THE SUPPORT OF 5300 THEN IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 5250 & 5210 & THEN TO 5170 ALSO. HOWEVER IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5365 A LEVEL OF 5400-5440 WOULD BECOME THE NEXT TARGET.
CONSIDERING THE GLOBAL MELTDOWN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NIFTY MIGHT TOUCH 5000 MARK AND BELOW VERY SOON.


CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR THOSE WHO ARE LONG IN FUTURES.


STRATEGY FOR TODAY:


IF NIFTY OPENS WITH GAP DOWN OF 100 POINTS ONE MUST WAIT AND NOT HURRY TO JUMP IN THE MARKET. THERE COULD BE SLIGHT RECOVERY WHICH SHOULD BE USED TO BUY PUTS OF NIFTY viz., PE5300 & PE5200.


IF NIFTY FINDS SUPPORT OF 5300 THEN BUY CE5300 & CE5400, TO BOOK PROFITS LATER ON TILL 5520


NO DELIVERY BUYING IS SUGGESTED FOR TODAY.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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