MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 29TH AUGUST 2011 TO 2ND SEPTEMBER 2011

IT HAS BEEN  5 WEEKS IN A ROW MARKETS IN INDIA HAVE BEEN FALLING ON GLOBAL CONCERNS AND DOMESTIC UNREST OVER LOK PAL BILL. LAST WEEK STARTED POSITIVELY BUT LOST THE GROUND SOON, AFTER TOUCHING THE HIGH OF 4965,  WHERE MARKET GRIPPED ON THE FEAR OF OUTCOME OF FED CHAIRMAN, BEN BERNANKE'S SPEECH ON FRIDAY. SENSEX LOOSED BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF 16000 & NIFTY BELOW 4750. INFLATION INCREASED TO 9.8% IN THE WEEK TO AUGUST 13TH, 2011 FROM 9.03% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. MONSOON WAS WAS 8% BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEEK TO AUGUST 24TH, 2011. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT FED CHAIRMAN PROVIDED NO REAL CUES THAT FED IS BUILDING UP TO MORE POLICY STIMULUS, LIKE QE3. IN FACT HE EMPHASIZED THE POLITICIANS TO HELP THE ECONOMY BY SORTING OUT FISCAL SITUATION. SEPTEMBER POLICY MEET WILL BE FOR TWO DAYS, WHICH MIGHT BE SEEN AS HINT THAT FURTHER POLICY ACTION WILL FOLLOW. 
GOING FORWARD, THE SEPTEMBER MONTH REMAINS CRUCIAL IN RESPECT OF BOTH FED MEET AND RBI MEET ON 16TH SEPTEMBER, AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI MIGHT HIKE REPO-RATE BY 25bps. ALSO THE MONSOON SESSION HAS VERY FEW DAYS LEFT NOW, WHERE IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE TO TAKE UP ALL THE PENDING BILLS OF ECONOMIC REFORMS AND POLICIES. HOWEVER AS MR. ANNA HAZARE HAS BROKE HIS FAST, GOVERNMENT HAS NOW RELIEF FOR A BREADTH TO PONDER ON THE REMAINING DAYS IN THIS SESSION. HENCE SEPTEMBER REMAINS THE CRUCIAL MONTH IN MANY RESPECT. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MONTH SHOULD BE 4500-5200


THIS WEEK IS A TRUNCATED TRADING WEEK. MARKET REMAINS CLOSED ON 31ST AUGUST 2011(WEDNESDAY), ON ACCOUNT OF RAMZAN ID AND AGAIN ON  
1ST SEPTEMBER 2011(THURSDAY), ON ACCOUNT OF GANESH CHATURTHI. GDP DATA IS SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED ON 30TH AUGUST 2011(TUESDAY). ALSO  MONTHLY DATA OF AUTO, CEMENT & OTHER COMMODITIES FOR AUGUST 2011 AND THE EXPORT-IMPORT(EXIM) &  PMI DATA ARE EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCED IN THIS WEEK, WILL GIVE SOME DIRECTION TO THE MARKET. BUYING AUTO AND CONSUMER GOODS STOCK COULD BE SEEN, DUE TO UP COMING FESTIVE SEASON & GOOD RAINS.
NOW NIFTY MAY TAKE STRONG SUPPORT BETWEEN 4660 & 4690, IN THE COMING WEEK, THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY MAY BE 4660-5020. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS AND MOVES ABOVE THIS RANGE(5020) THEN 5140 & 5205 WOULD BE THE STRONG RESISTANCE LEVELS, HOWEVER IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 4660 IT MAY TEST 4530 & 4470 LEVELS ALSO. AS MAJOR TREND OF THE MARKET IS DOWN IT WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO EXIT LONG POSITIONS AND TAKE SHORT POSITIONS.


NIFTY STRATEGY: THIS WEEK SHALL BE VERY GOOD FOR OPTION PLAYERS.


STRATEGY 1[SITUATION (A)]: BUY NIFTY SEPTEMBER CE4700 & CE4800, IF YOU FIND NIFTY BETWEEN 4690-4660, KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4650(CLOSING BASIS) AND BOOK PROFIT IN CALLS ON EVERY RISE TO 5000 LEVELS.


STRATEGY 1[SITUATION (B)]: BUY NIFTY SEPTEMBER PE4700 & CE4600, IF YOU FIND NIFTY BELOW 4660-4650, KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4750(CLOSING BASIS) AND BOOK PROFIT IN PUTS ON EVERY FALL TO 4500 LEVELS.


STRATEGY 2: BUY PE 4700, PE4800, PE4900 ON EVERY SHORT COVERING & CORRECTIVE RALLY IN THE MARKET, KEEP 5050 AS BROAD STOP-LOSS AND KEEP BOOKING REGULAR PROFITS ON EVERY FALL NEAR TO 4500.


STOCK FUTURES/OPTIONS:
1.CHAMBAL FERT FUT(97.00): NEWS BASED INFO THAT BEAR CARTEL MIGHT BRING THE SHARE TO 80 LEVELS SOON. EITHER SHORT THE FUTURE ON EVERY RISE TILL  102-103-104 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 108.50 FOR THE TARGET OF 90-86-84-80 OR BUY PE100(SEPT) FOR HUGE GAINS.
2. DELTA CORP(84.80): NEWS BASED INFO THAT BEAR CARTEL MIGHT BRING THE SHARE TO 70 LEVELS SOON. EITHER SHORT THE FUTURE AT CMP OR  ON EVERY RISE TILL 86-87-88 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 91+(CLOSING BASIS) FOR THE TARGET OF 83-80-78-76-74-70 OR BUY PE85(SEPT) FOR HUGE GAINS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKET SHALL REMAIN IN A RANGE BOUND MOVE WITH SLACK & LACKLUSTER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY & TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE NEGATIVE VIEW IS MAINTAINED THERE WILL BE SHARP SPIKES DURING THE DAYS. FRIDAY, 2ND SEPTEMBER 2011, SHALL SEE SHARP CUT & FALL IN THE MARKET. BUYING PUTS IN THE START OF THE WEEK SHALL BE PROFITABLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MARKETS TO REMAIN POOR TILL 4TH SEPTEMBER 2011,  BUYING INTEREST WILL BE SEEN FOR NEXT WEEK, ON FRIDAY, 4TH SEPTEMBER 2011 FOR A VERY SHARP SHORT COVERING RALLY, BUYING OF CALLS IN NIFTY AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SHALL BE PROFITABLE IN THE WEEK 5TH SEPTEMBER 2011 TO 9TH SEPTEMBER 2011.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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