Monday, September 12, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 12TH SEPTEMBER 2011 TO 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011

LAST WEEK, AS EXPECTED, MARKET PAUSED AFTER A WEEK LONG RALLY AT THE WEEK END, ON NEGATIVE GLOBAL CUES AND PROFIT BOOKING. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5959.45 AND SENSEX AT 16866.97.  FOOD INFLATION FELL TO 9.55% FOR THE WEEK ENDED AUGUST 27, 2011 AGAINST THE PREVIOUS WEEK AT 10.05%. INDIA'S SERVICE SECTOR OUTPUT GREW AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN MORE THAN 2 YEARS IN AUGUST 2011.  PMI FOR SERVICES FELL TO 53.80 IN AUGUST FROM 58.20 IN JULY 2011. 
ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, THE U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA ON THURSDAY PROPOSED A $447 BILLION JOB CREATION BILL. THIS BILL IS EQUIVALENT TO NEARLY 3% OF GDP, WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON GDP GROWTH IN 2012, IF IT IS PASSED BY CONGRESS. HOWEVER MARKETS FAILED TO CHEER ON THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AND BOTH DOW JONES AND NASDAQ LOST SIGNIFICANTLY.  ON THE OTHER HAND, ADDING TO THE WORRIES, JAPAN'S ECONOMY SHRANK BY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED IN Q2 OF 2011. JAPAN'S REVISED GDP SHRANK AT THE ANNUALISED PACE OF 2.1% IN THE QUARTER AGAINST READING OF A 1.3% CONTRACTION REPORTED EARLIER. 


NOW THIS WEEK IS VERY EVENTFUL FOR INDIAN MARKETS AS SLEW OF MACRO DATA(IIP DATA ON 12TH SEPTEMBER, INFLATION DATA ON 14TH SEPTEMBER)  SHALL PROVIDE THE CUES ABOUT THE RBI POLICY STANCE ON 16TH SEPTEMBER, 2011. ALSO MARKETS WILL HAVE KEEN INTEREST ON WATCHING THE ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS, WHICH SHALL START COMING IN FROM 15TH SEPTEMBER. MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VOLATILE, WITH A STRONG SUPPORT IN THE RANGE 4920-5170 IN NIFTY TERMS. BREAK OF WHICH SHALL GIVE AT LEAST 200 POINTS MOVE IN NIFTY FOR EITHER SIDE. INDIAN MARKETS ARE AT THE CROSS-ROADS, IF THE CUES COMING FROM DOMESTIC FACTORS AND GLOBAL FACTORS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE AND POOR TO EQUITIES,THEN THE INDIAN MARKETS SHALL SOON TEST NEW BOTTOM AS MADE IN AUGUST LAST WEEK. HOWEVER IF ON THE OTHER HAND GLOBAL AS WELL AS DOMESTIC CUES ARE SUPPORTIVE TO THE EQUITY ENVIRONMENTS THEN INDIAN MARKET SHALL BE BEST OUT-PERFORMER AMONG ITS PEERS. 


FOR THIS WEEK: FIRST SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY LIES AT 5020 AND THE  RESISTANCE AT 5110. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5020 THEN IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 4970 AND THEN TO 4920. HOWEVER IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5110 THEN THE LEVEL OF 5170-5230 WOULD BE NEXT TARGET.
NOW IF NIFTY BREAKS 4920, THE SHORT TERM TREND OF NIFTY WILL BE NEGATIVE AND IT MAY GO FURTHER DOWN TO 4800. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY BREACHES 5230 ON THE HIGHER SIDE THEN 5320 WILL BE THE NEXT TARGET.


FOR TODAY: THE RANGE FOR THE NIFTY WILL BE 5020-5110. DONT TRADE IN THIS RANGE.
BUY CE5100 & CE5200 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5110 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5020.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5020 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5110.


STOCK/DERIVATIVES TO TRADE:
1. WIPRO(338.35): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR 1-2 WEEKS FOR THE TARGET OF 360-375+++ KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 315.


2. SBI(1952): SELL THIS STOCK IN FUTURE KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 1975 ON CASH BASIS, FOR THE PRICE TARGET OF 1910 & 1870 VERY SOON.


3. EXIDE(137):SELL THIS STOCK IN FUTURE KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 142 ON CASH BASIS, FOR THE PRICE TARGET OF 130 & 125 VERY SOON.


4. EDUCOMP FUT(227):SELL/ SHORT THE FUTURE FOR THE TARGET OF 170-160 IN SPETEMBER SERIES KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 262 ON CLOSING BASIS.


5. LT PUT OPTION(PE1700):BUY L&T 1700 PUT OF SEPTEMBER SERIES AT THE CMP NEAR 55-50 FOR THE TARGET OF 120+++.


6. SHALIMAR PAINTS(484.60): BUY THIS SHARE IN DELIVERY (ONLY IN SMALL QUANTITIES) FOR THE TARGET OF 1000+++ BY NEXT FEW MONTHS. MOVES AGAINST THE MARKET STREAM.


ASTROLOGICALLY: INDIAN MARKETS WILL SEE PAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. MAY BE MARKETS TILL 31ST OCTOBER MAY NOT BE GOOD. IT SEEMS THAT MARKETS WILL TEST THE PREVIOUS BOTTOM OF AUGUST 2011(4720) AND MAY MOVE BELOW THAT IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5000( AS SAID PREVIOUSLY THAT 5000 WILL DECIDE THE TREND IN SEPTEMBER MONTH).
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 UNCERTAINTIES EVEN AFTER THE SATURN MOVES TO LIBRA ON OCTOBER 22ND, 2011.


AFTER SATURN'S MOVE AND JUPITER GETTING DIRECT, THERE WILL BE HUGE HUGE RALLY IN INDIAN MARKETS. EQUITIES WILL SOAR TO NEW HIGHS. NIFTY WILL MOVE TO 6300++ THEN TO 6800++ THEN TO 7200+++. NEXT BIG CORRECTION MAY COME IN APRIL 2014, WHERE THERE WILL BE CONDITION WORST THAN OCT 2008-MARCH 2009. THERE WILL BE BANKING CRISIS ALL OVER THE WORLD AND FREEZE OF FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES.  NIFTY WILL CRASH DOWN TO 4000-4500 LEVELS. HENCE GET OUT OF THE MARKET BEFORE JAN 2014 & RELAX...... WITH CASH........


WILL INDIA BE AFFECTED BY THE NEXT BIG CRASH IN 2014 APRIL??
WILL UPA REGAIN ITS MOMENTUM IN JANUARY 2014??
WILL THERE BE GOLD SELL AT 58000-63000 PER 10 GRAM???


ARE MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS.....






Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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