MARKET CLOSED ALMOST FLAT AFTER INITIAL RISE IN A VOLATILE SESSION. OIL & GAS, AUTO, FMCG, CAPITAL GOOD AND SELECT I.T STOCKS WERE UNDER SELLING PRESSURE, WHILE BANKING & TELECOM WERE IN GREEN TO SUPPORT THE MARKET. THE VOLATILITY OF THE EUROPEAN MARKETS ALSO ADDED THE DIRECTIONLESS MOVEMENT HERE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5133.25, DOWN BY 6.95 POINTS AND SENSEX AT 17065.15, DOWN BY 34.13. THOUGH MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE UP OVER 0.7%.
GOING FORWARD THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THE BLOG, THE TWO DAYS FED MEET ENDED, WHERE THE STOCKS SLID SHARPLY WHILE TREASURIES AND DOLLAR RALLIED AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY $400 BILLION OF LONG TERM DEBT AND SAID THERE ARE "SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS" TO THE ECONOMY. THE FED WILL REPLACE SOME BONDS IN ITS PORTFOLIO WITH LONGER-TERM TREASURIES IN AN EFFORT TO FURTHER REDUCE BORROWING COSTS AND KEEP THE ECONOMY FROM RELAPSING INTO A RECESSION, CONFIRMING MARKET SPECULATION THAT POLICY MAKERS WERE PLANNING AN "OPERATION TWIST" SIMILAR TO A PROGRAM IN 1961. THE FED SAID " STRAINS IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS" WERE AMONG THE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
THIS MADE HUGE SELL OF IN THE EQUITIES AND COMMODITIES LIKE LEAD, NICKEL, COPPER, SUGAR INDEX TO 1 MONTH LOWS.
HOW THE INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY INSULATED FRO THE GLOBAL DOWN SIDE RISK, HOWEVER THE RISK AVERSION BY THE INVESTORS ON WORRIES OF SLOW-DOWN ACROSS THE GLOBE MIGHT TRIGGER THE SELLING IN EMERGING MARKETS ALSO, THEN INDIA MAY ALSO SEE BLEEDING SIMILAR TO OTHER MARKETS.
HENCE THIS IS THE TIME TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS. IT MAY GIVE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT LOWER LEVELS BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS. AT THE TIME WHEN THERE LOOMS A PESSIMISM AND UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GLOBE, HOW CAN WE REMAIN UNTOUCHED. IF THE FIIs START SELLING THERE WILL BE DEEP CUTS MAKING THE STOCKS AND INDICES MUCH BELOW THE CURRENT LEVELS. OUR MARKETS ARE BUOYANT AND RESILIENT DUE TO GROWTH WHICH THE GLOBAL MANGERS PERCEIVE HERE WHEN THE INTEREST RATE CYCLE PEAKS OUT. HENCE TO CERTAIN EXTENT INDIAN MARKETS MAY RECOVER IF THERE IS ANY BLOW-IN DUE TO WORLD MARKETS AND RISK AVERSION. SITTING ON CASH WITH 50% IS NOT A BAD IDEA AT THIS POINT OF TIME. MAY BE THERE'S A GOOD OPPORTUNITY AWAITING. 4650-4700 REMAINS A GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY. IN SHORT INDIAN MARKETS MAY NOT SEE BELOW 4650, UNTIL THERE IS SOME THING VERY CASCADING IN GLOBAL MARKETS OR DOMESTIC CONSTRAINS.
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST THAT 5000 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL OF NIFTY IN SEPTEMBER, NOW 5230 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN MARKETS WOULD RALLY AND RALLY TILL 5320-5400 ALSO. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5230 IS VERY IMPORTANT AS IT WILL INDICATE THAT GLOBAL FUND MANAGERS SEE NO IMMEDIATE RISK IN INDIAN MARKETS AND INDIA IS BETTER INVESTMENTS DESTINATION IN THIS RISKY GLOBAL SCENARIO. HOWEVER IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN 5000 LEVEL THEN CERTAINLY THE CURRENT CORRECTIVE RALLY WOULD GET TERMINATED AND NIFTY COULD SEE SHARP FALLS TO 4910 AND THEN BELOW THAT TO 4800 & 4650 ALSO.
HNECE THE CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH IS 5230 & 5000. TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY WAY TILL WHEN THE NIFTY TRADES IN THIS RANGE OF 5000-5230. EITHER ENTER BELOW 5000 OR ABOVE 5230. ELSE CHANCES ARE YOUR LOOSING MORE ARE VERY HIGH.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5110 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. HENCE THIS IS NO TRADING ZONE FOR TODAY.
IF NIFTY BREAKS 5110 THEN BUY PUTS(PE5100 & PE5000) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5065 & 5015. AND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5015-5000 THEN WAIT AND HOLD NIFTY PUTS OPTIONS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.......
IF NIFTY ON THE HIGHER SIDE SUSTAINS ABOVE 5170, THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE5100 & CE5200) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5205 & 5230. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN WAIT AND HOLD CALLS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.
THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT NIFTY WILL FIRST TAKE SUPPORT AT 5000 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 4900. LONGS POSITIONS SHOULD BE EXITED BELOW 5015-500 AND ONLY BELOW 4900 ONE SHOULD CONSIDER SHORTING OTHERWISE BEARS MAY GET TRAPPED AGAIN......
ASTROLOGICALLY: THE CONFIGURATION SHOWS THAT MORE AND MORE PLANET FORM CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY AT PARTICULAR PLACE, WHICH MAY GIVE A 400-500 POINTS MOVEMENT IN NIFTY, MAY BE 4750-4650 OR 5550-5650. CHANCES OF DOWN SIDE RISK REMAINS MORE....
There are 30% chance that I may go wrong.
HOWEVER BE VIGILANT AND DON'T RELY OF ON ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS TOO MUCH. USE THE SIMPLE THUMB RULE ALSO. IF BELOW 5000 THEN WEAK AND MAY GO DOWN TO 4650 ALSO, IF ABOVE 5230 THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY. HENCE ITS VERY CLEAR THAT ONE SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THESE LEVELS............
AVOID STOCKS, FUTURES AND TRADE IN OPTIONS TO AVOID LOSSES AND WRONG POSITIONS.
ONE CAN JOIN ME ON "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in" on Yahoo Messenger and "Astrologer Vikas Srivastava" on face book, for live chat during the market time for any clarification and discussion.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THE BLOG, THE TWO DAYS FED MEET ENDED, WHERE THE STOCKS SLID SHARPLY WHILE TREASURIES AND DOLLAR RALLIED AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY $400 BILLION OF LONG TERM DEBT AND SAID THERE ARE "SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS" TO THE ECONOMY. THE FED WILL REPLACE SOME BONDS IN ITS PORTFOLIO WITH LONGER-TERM TREASURIES IN AN EFFORT TO FURTHER REDUCE BORROWING COSTS AND KEEP THE ECONOMY FROM RELAPSING INTO A RECESSION, CONFIRMING MARKET SPECULATION THAT POLICY MAKERS WERE PLANNING AN "OPERATION TWIST" SIMILAR TO A PROGRAM IN 1961. THE FED SAID " STRAINS IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS" WERE AMONG THE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
THIS MADE HUGE SELL OF IN THE EQUITIES AND COMMODITIES LIKE LEAD, NICKEL, COPPER, SUGAR INDEX TO 1 MONTH LOWS.
HOW THE INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY INSULATED FRO THE GLOBAL DOWN SIDE RISK, HOWEVER THE RISK AVERSION BY THE INVESTORS ON WORRIES OF SLOW-DOWN ACROSS THE GLOBE MIGHT TRIGGER THE SELLING IN EMERGING MARKETS ALSO, THEN INDIA MAY ALSO SEE BLEEDING SIMILAR TO OTHER MARKETS.
HENCE THIS IS THE TIME TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS. IT MAY GIVE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT LOWER LEVELS BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS. AT THE TIME WHEN THERE LOOMS A PESSIMISM AND UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GLOBE, HOW CAN WE REMAIN UNTOUCHED. IF THE FIIs START SELLING THERE WILL BE DEEP CUTS MAKING THE STOCKS AND INDICES MUCH BELOW THE CURRENT LEVELS. OUR MARKETS ARE BUOYANT AND RESILIENT DUE TO GROWTH WHICH THE GLOBAL MANGERS PERCEIVE HERE WHEN THE INTEREST RATE CYCLE PEAKS OUT. HENCE TO CERTAIN EXTENT INDIAN MARKETS MAY RECOVER IF THERE IS ANY BLOW-IN DUE TO WORLD MARKETS AND RISK AVERSION. SITTING ON CASH WITH 50% IS NOT A BAD IDEA AT THIS POINT OF TIME. MAY BE THERE'S A GOOD OPPORTUNITY AWAITING. 4650-4700 REMAINS A GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY. IN SHORT INDIAN MARKETS MAY NOT SEE BELOW 4650, UNTIL THERE IS SOME THING VERY CASCADING IN GLOBAL MARKETS OR DOMESTIC CONSTRAINS.
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST THAT 5000 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL OF NIFTY IN SEPTEMBER, NOW 5230 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN MARKETS WOULD RALLY AND RALLY TILL 5320-5400 ALSO. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5230 IS VERY IMPORTANT AS IT WILL INDICATE THAT GLOBAL FUND MANAGERS SEE NO IMMEDIATE RISK IN INDIAN MARKETS AND INDIA IS BETTER INVESTMENTS DESTINATION IN THIS RISKY GLOBAL SCENARIO. HOWEVER IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN 5000 LEVEL THEN CERTAINLY THE CURRENT CORRECTIVE RALLY WOULD GET TERMINATED AND NIFTY COULD SEE SHARP FALLS TO 4910 AND THEN BELOW THAT TO 4800 & 4650 ALSO.
HNECE THE CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH IS 5230 & 5000. TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY WAY TILL WHEN THE NIFTY TRADES IN THIS RANGE OF 5000-5230. EITHER ENTER BELOW 5000 OR ABOVE 5230. ELSE CHANCES ARE YOUR LOOSING MORE ARE VERY HIGH.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5110 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. HENCE THIS IS NO TRADING ZONE FOR TODAY.
IF NIFTY BREAKS 5110 THEN BUY PUTS(PE5100 & PE5000) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5065 & 5015. AND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5015-5000 THEN WAIT AND HOLD NIFTY PUTS OPTIONS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.......
IF NIFTY ON THE HIGHER SIDE SUSTAINS ABOVE 5170, THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE5100 & CE5200) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5205 & 5230. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN WAIT AND HOLD CALLS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.
THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT NIFTY WILL FIRST TAKE SUPPORT AT 5000 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 4900. LONGS POSITIONS SHOULD BE EXITED BELOW 5015-500 AND ONLY BELOW 4900 ONE SHOULD CONSIDER SHORTING OTHERWISE BEARS MAY GET TRAPPED AGAIN......
ASTROLOGICALLY: THE CONFIGURATION SHOWS THAT MORE AND MORE PLANET FORM CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY AT PARTICULAR PLACE, WHICH MAY GIVE A 400-500 POINTS MOVEMENT IN NIFTY, MAY BE 4750-4650 OR 5550-5650. CHANCES OF DOWN SIDE RISK REMAINS MORE....
There are 30% chance that I may go wrong.
HOWEVER BE VIGILANT AND DON'T RELY OF ON ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS TOO MUCH. USE THE SIMPLE THUMB RULE ALSO. IF BELOW 5000 THEN WEAK AND MAY GO DOWN TO 4650 ALSO, IF ABOVE 5230 THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY. HENCE ITS VERY CLEAR THAT ONE SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THESE LEVELS............
AVOID STOCKS, FUTURES AND TRADE IN OPTIONS TO AVOID LOSSES AND WRONG POSITIONS.
ONE CAN JOIN ME ON "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in" on Yahoo Messenger and "Astrologer Vikas Srivastava" on face book, for live chat during the market time for any clarification and discussion.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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