ON WEAK GLOBAL CUES, DUE TO DISMAL REPORT ON U.S JOB GROWTH AND EURO DEBT,WORRIES INDIAN STOCK MARKET OPENED IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY HOWEVER DOMESTIC MARKETS RECOVERED ALMOST HALF OF THE FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OUTPERFORMING THE GLOBAL PEERS. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5017.20 DOWN BY 22.80 POINTS AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 4964.45 AND A HIGH OF 5030.30. SENSEX CLOSED AT 16713.33 DOWN BY 108.13 POINTS WITH A LOW OF 16561.46 AND HIGH OF 16760.07. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH SMALL-CAP & MID-CAP INDEX ENDED IN GREEN.
GOING FORWARD MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG WITH SIDE WAYS MOVEMENT, IF NIFTY SURVIVES THE 5000 MARK. YESTERDAY ALSO NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5000 MARK SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME FUND BASED BUYING IN DELIVERY AND OUT-PERFORMANCE TO THE GLOBAL PEERS SHOWS THAT INDIAN EQUITIES ARE LIKELY TO ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN FUNDS DUE TO FALL IN COMMODITY PRICES ESPECIALLY CRUDE OIL, WHICH MIGHT HELP THE INFLATION TO COOL DOWN, CHECKING THE PROBABLE RATE HIKES BY RBI IN ITS POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2011. THIS COULD BE THE MAIN REASON, WHY INDIAN MARKETS ARE OUTPERFORMING THE GLOBAL MARKET CRASH, WHERE EUROPE & ASIA HAVE TAKEN A SHARP KNOCK.
NOW AN IMPORTANT QUESTIONS WHICH COMES IN MIND IS "IS THE WORST IN INDIAN EQUITIES OVER?", "HAS THE TIME COME TO BUY THE EQUITIES, "HAS THE MARKETS HAVE MADE BOTTOM?" "WHICH STOCKS SHOULD ONE BUY NOW?" AND MANY OTHERS.
THE ANSWER TO THESE QUESTIONS IS NOT EASY, HOWEVER ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT KEEPING THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY GROWING ON THE SAME PACE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST, THE LONGER TERM CALL OF FY 13(E) EARNINGS OF NIFTY ,WHICH TRADES AT 11.7x BUY & HOLD STRATEGY WILL BE THE BEST. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PAIN IN THE SHORT TERM IF THE FOOD & OTHER INFLATION DOESN'T COOLS IN NEAR FUTURE. ON THE EXPECTATION THAT RBI MIGHT NOT HIKE THE INTEREST RATE THIS TIME, HAS DEVELOPED SOME BUYING INTEREST FOR LAST FEW TRADING SESSIONS. AS & WHEN THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR BY SOME INFLATION DATA, ETC THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET WILL BE CLEAR. IF THE THE EXPECTATION AND CONSENSUS BUILDS IN FOR MORE RATE HIKES IN OFFING THEN INDIAN MARKETS MAY TAKE A SHARP KNOCK AND BREACH ALL SUPPORTS TO HEAD MORE LOWER THAN EARLIER. HENCE THE BEST IS TO WAIT & WATCH AND FOLLOW STRICT STOP-LOSS TO ALL LONGS. 5000 IN NIFTY SHALL BE THE TREND DECIDING LEVEL FOR THE SEPTEMBER MONTH.
ANALYSTS ALSO BELIEVE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG IN LONG TERM(FY12 & ONWARD), IN SHORT TERM A LITTLE PAIN MAY STILL BE LEFT. THOSE WISHING TO HOLD FOR MORE THAN A YEAR SHOULD START BUYING AT THESE LEVELS AND ADD MORE ON ANY FALL TILL 4500 IN NIFTY LEVELS. THOSE HOLDING THE EQUITIES AT THE HIGHER PRICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD AND ADD MORE ON FALLS. THE KEY TO THE DIRECTION TO INDIAN MARKETS SHALL BE DOMESTIC TRIGGER OF RBI POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2011. BEST STOCKS TO BUY ON FALL ARE: COAL INDIA, GUJRAT FLORO, RELIANCE IND., EXIDE, SKUMAR NATION, PIRAMAL GLASS, PIDILITE, LIC HOUSING FIN, HEROMOTO CORP,MARUTI, TATAMOTORS, HDFCBANK, HDFC, ORCHID CHEM, RCOM, RPOWER, STERLITE TECH, LUPIN, GRASIM , NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS, SRIRAM TRANSPORT FIN, PATNI COMPUTERS, TCS, & SOME PSU BANKS LIKE PNB, BOB, BANK OF INDIA. OTHERS STOCKS WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED BY EXPERTS AND ANALYSTS FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE BEEN MENTIONED HERE IN PAST SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERED IN PORTFOLIO FOR LONG TERM.
ON TECHNICAL TERMS, AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 4720 NIFTY HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 8% TILL NOW. NOW NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A RANGE OF 5120 AND 4800. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO MOVE AND MAINTAIN ABOVE 5120 THEN NIFTY SHALL MOVE TO 5230-5250 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IF NIFTY BREACHES 4800 MARK ON THE DOWN SIDE, THEN THERE COULD BE FREE FALL TO THE SUPPORT OF 4700-4650.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4970 AND RESISTANCE AT 5030. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4970 THEN 4940 & 4900 SHALL BE THE SUPPORT, HOWEVER ON THE OTHER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5030, THE LEVEL OF 5050 & 5100 SHALL BE THE TARGETS.
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY:
BUY CE 5000 & CE5100 IF MARKET MOVES ABOVE 5030 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4970-40 (CLOSING BASIS).
BUY PE 5000 & PE 4900 IF THE MARKET MOVES BELOW 4970 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5000-5030(CLOSING BASIS).
INTRA-DAY/DELIVERY/F&O CALLS:
1. AXIS BANK(1114.45): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 1130-1140 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 1099
2. TATASTEEL PE500: BUY AROUND 20-25 FOR THE TARGET OF 50++ KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5.
3. RALLIS(170.65): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF 250+++. MUST BUY ON EVERY FALL. JUST BUY & FORGET...............VERY POSTIVE FUTURE.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG WITH SIDE WAYS MOVEMENT, IF NIFTY SURVIVES THE 5000 MARK. YESTERDAY ALSO NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5000 MARK SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME FUND BASED BUYING IN DELIVERY AND OUT-PERFORMANCE TO THE GLOBAL PEERS SHOWS THAT INDIAN EQUITIES ARE LIKELY TO ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN FUNDS DUE TO FALL IN COMMODITY PRICES ESPECIALLY CRUDE OIL, WHICH MIGHT HELP THE INFLATION TO COOL DOWN, CHECKING THE PROBABLE RATE HIKES BY RBI IN ITS POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2011. THIS COULD BE THE MAIN REASON, WHY INDIAN MARKETS ARE OUTPERFORMING THE GLOBAL MARKET CRASH, WHERE EUROPE & ASIA HAVE TAKEN A SHARP KNOCK.
NOW AN IMPORTANT QUESTIONS WHICH COMES IN MIND IS "IS THE WORST IN INDIAN EQUITIES OVER?", "HAS THE TIME COME TO BUY THE EQUITIES, "HAS THE MARKETS HAVE MADE BOTTOM?" "WHICH STOCKS SHOULD ONE BUY NOW?" AND MANY OTHERS.
THE ANSWER TO THESE QUESTIONS IS NOT EASY, HOWEVER ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT KEEPING THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY GROWING ON THE SAME PACE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST, THE LONGER TERM CALL OF FY 13(E) EARNINGS OF NIFTY ,WHICH TRADES AT 11.7x BUY & HOLD STRATEGY WILL BE THE BEST. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE PAIN IN THE SHORT TERM IF THE FOOD & OTHER INFLATION DOESN'T COOLS IN NEAR FUTURE. ON THE EXPECTATION THAT RBI MIGHT NOT HIKE THE INTEREST RATE THIS TIME, HAS DEVELOPED SOME BUYING INTEREST FOR LAST FEW TRADING SESSIONS. AS & WHEN THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR BY SOME INFLATION DATA, ETC THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET WILL BE CLEAR. IF THE THE EXPECTATION AND CONSENSUS BUILDS IN FOR MORE RATE HIKES IN OFFING THEN INDIAN MARKETS MAY TAKE A SHARP KNOCK AND BREACH ALL SUPPORTS TO HEAD MORE LOWER THAN EARLIER. HENCE THE BEST IS TO WAIT & WATCH AND FOLLOW STRICT STOP-LOSS TO ALL LONGS. 5000 IN NIFTY SHALL BE THE TREND DECIDING LEVEL FOR THE SEPTEMBER MONTH.
ANALYSTS ALSO BELIEVE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG IN LONG TERM(FY12 & ONWARD), IN SHORT TERM A LITTLE PAIN MAY STILL BE LEFT. THOSE WISHING TO HOLD FOR MORE THAN A YEAR SHOULD START BUYING AT THESE LEVELS AND ADD MORE ON ANY FALL TILL 4500 IN NIFTY LEVELS. THOSE HOLDING THE EQUITIES AT THE HIGHER PRICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD AND ADD MORE ON FALLS. THE KEY TO THE DIRECTION TO INDIAN MARKETS SHALL BE DOMESTIC TRIGGER OF RBI POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2011. BEST STOCKS TO BUY ON FALL ARE: COAL INDIA, GUJRAT FLORO, RELIANCE IND., EXIDE, SKUMAR NATION, PIRAMAL GLASS, PIDILITE, LIC HOUSING FIN, HEROMOTO CORP,MARUTI, TATAMOTORS, HDFCBANK, HDFC, ORCHID CHEM, RCOM, RPOWER, STERLITE TECH, LUPIN, GRASIM , NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS, SRIRAM TRANSPORT FIN, PATNI COMPUTERS, TCS, & SOME PSU BANKS LIKE PNB, BOB, BANK OF INDIA. OTHERS STOCKS WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED BY EXPERTS AND ANALYSTS FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE BEEN MENTIONED HERE IN PAST SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERED IN PORTFOLIO FOR LONG TERM.
ON TECHNICAL TERMS, AFTER MAKING A LOW OF 4720 NIFTY HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 8% TILL NOW. NOW NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A RANGE OF 5120 AND 4800. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO MOVE AND MAINTAIN ABOVE 5120 THEN NIFTY SHALL MOVE TO 5230-5250 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IF NIFTY BREACHES 4800 MARK ON THE DOWN SIDE, THEN THERE COULD BE FREE FALL TO THE SUPPORT OF 4700-4650.
FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4970 AND RESISTANCE AT 5030. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4970 THEN 4940 & 4900 SHALL BE THE SUPPORT, HOWEVER ON THE OTHER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5030, THE LEVEL OF 5050 & 5100 SHALL BE THE TARGETS.
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY:
BUY CE 5000 & CE5100 IF MARKET MOVES ABOVE 5030 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4970-40 (CLOSING BASIS).
BUY PE 5000 & PE 4900 IF THE MARKET MOVES BELOW 4970 KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5000-5030(CLOSING BASIS).
INTRA-DAY/DELIVERY/F&O CALLS:
1. AXIS BANK(1114.45): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 1130-1140 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 1099
2. TATASTEEL PE500: BUY AROUND 20-25 FOR THE TARGET OF 50++ KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5.
3. RALLIS(170.65): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY FOR A SHORT TERM TARGET OF 250+++. MUST BUY ON EVERY FALL. JUST BUY & FORGET...............VERY POSTIVE FUTURE.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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