BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 26th SEPT 2011 TO 30TH SEPT 2011

INDIAN STOCK MARKET LOST ITS GROUND   ON THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK, AFTER THE FED MEET COMMENT OF WEAK GLOBAL OUTLOOK. THERE WAS HUGE SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS, WHICH SENT A CORRECTIVE WAVE IN BOTH EQUITY AND COMMODITY MARKETS, AND DOLLAR & BONDS RALLY. ALSO INDIA'S FOOD INFLATION ENDED AT 8.84% FOR THE WEEK ENDED AT 10TH SEPTEMBER , 2011 AGAINST 9.47% A WEEK AGO.
LAST WEEK WHILE THE FED'S DECISION WAS LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS, MARKETS REACTED NEGATIVELY TO FED'S DOWN BEAT ASSESSMENT FOR THE ECONOMY. FED NOTED THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK , INCLUDING STRAINS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS. NIFTY ENDED AT 4967.75 AND SENSEX AT 16162.06


GOING FORWARD MARKETS SHALL BE VERY CHOPPY AS VOLATILITY IN GLOBAL COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES ALONG WITH F&O EXPIRY OF SEPTEMBER SERIES SHALL BE THE FOCUS OF BIG MARKET PARTICIPANTS, FIIs AND DIIs. HOWEVER ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE THE SHARP DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE vs DOLLAR, FIIs HAVEN'T EXITED INDIAN MARKETS IN A BIG WAY AS REFLECTED IN THE DATA FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23RD SEPTEMBER. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THEIR UNDER-OWNERSHIP IN BLUE CHIP STOCKS, WHICH HAS FALLEN OVER A PERIOD. IF THE GLOBAL TREMORS STOPS NIFTY IS LIKELY TO SHOW RESILIENCE AT 4800 MARK, WHERE FUND HOUSE MAY START SELECTIVE BUYING IN SECTORS LIKE I.T., FMCG, OIL & GAS, TELECOM ETC., 


AT 16000 SENSEX  AND 4800 NIFTY VALUATION SEEMS JUSTIFIED. NIFTY AT 11.40xFY13(E) EPS OF 427 DOESN'T LOOK  EXPENSIVE CONSIDERING THAT WEE ARE SEEING ALL THE WORST NEWS AND FACTORS AT THE EXTREME NEGATIVE. BUY IN FRONT LINE STOCKS LIKE BHEL, ITC, TCS, L&T ETC., BY THE FUND HOUSE COULD BE SEEN IF NIFTY SUSTAINS 4800 AND SENSEX 16000.


TECHNICALLY AS SAID EARLIER SEVERAL TIMES THAT 5000 IS THE MAIN DECIDING LEVEL FOR THE SEPTEMBER SERIES AND NIFTY HAS BROKEN THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF 4900 ON FRIDAY IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DOWNWARD MOVEMENT OF NIFTY SHALL CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE TIME AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 4650-4700 SOON, HOWEVER VARIOUS TECHNICAL ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5109 AND 5059 ON LAST THURSDAY. SO SOME SHORT TERM PULL BACK RALLY OR CORRECTIVE RALLY COULD BE SEEN WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 5159.


FOR THIS WEEK NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4800 AND RESISTANCE AT 4960. NOW NOTE VERY CLEARLY THAT:
(A): IF NIFTY BREAKS 4800( BUY PE 4800 & PE 4700), WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4720 & 4650.
(B): IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4960(BUY CE4900 & CE5000) THEN LEVEL OF 5020-5110 WOULD BE THE TARGET.


STOCK/FUTURE/OPTIONS:
THIS IS PURELY NEWS BASED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPECULATORS, I DON'T SUGGEST FOR ANY PORTFOLIO BUYING OR LARGE PLAY IN THESE COUNTERS:
1. UNION BANK FUT(OCT SERIES): BUY AROUND 238 OR NEAR STOP-LOSS OF 225 FOR THE TARGET OF 245-250-255+++


2. BATA FUT(OCT SERIES): SHORT BATA AT CMP(AROUND 660) OR ON EVERY RISE TILL 670-680 STOP-LOSS 690  FOR THE TARGET OF 640-620-600


3. RUCHI SOYA(113.95): BUY THIS STOCK ON FALL OR DIP(NEAR 110-111-113) FOR THE TARGET OF 130++ VERY SOON. YOU MAY KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 103-103.50


 NIFTY SETTLEMENT: OPTION DATA SUGGEST THAT NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE BELOW 4800 BUT ABOVE 4600. HENCE TODAY'S ACTION IN F&O OF  NIFTY SHALL GIVE MORE CLEAR PICTURE. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE VERY CLEAR THAT RANGE OF SETTLEMENT SHALL BE 4800-4600.


ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST THAT OCTOBER/NOVEMBER & DECEMBER SHALL BE VERY VERY POOR FOR INDIA AND INDIAN MARKETS. THERE COULD BE NATURAL CALAMITIES, TERRORIST ACTIVITIES AND TURBULENT STOCK & COMMODITY MARKETS, WE COULD SEE NIFTY HEADING TO MUCH LOWER LEVELS GOING FORWARD. MAY BE 4500-4400-4300 VISITED SOON IN OCTOBER.


NOTE: THOUGH FUNDAMENTALLY MARKET SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT 16000/4800(SENSEX/NIFTY), HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME ABERRATIONAL MOVE IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH MAY PUSH THE INDICES AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER NOTE THAT ONE SHOULD CONSIDER BUYING STOCKS IN STAGGERED MANNER AND IN SMALL QUANTITIES AND ACCUMULATE AT LOWER LEVELS. BUYING OF PUTS AT EVERY HIGHER LEVELS SHALL GIVE PROFITS IN 90% TRADES.


THERE ARE 40% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. KINDLY USE YOUR OWN JUDGMENT AND KNOWLEDGE.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.