NEGATIVE GLOBAL CUES & WEAK IIP DATA PLUNGED THE INDIAN MARKETS AND MADE THE SENTIMENTS EXTREMELY WORRISOME ON THE CONCERNS OF SLOW DOWN IN INDIAN ECONOMY AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR. AS SAID EARLIER FEW MONTHS BACK THAT THE IMPACT OF UNABATED RATE HIKE BY RBI TO COMBAT INFLATION SHALL HARM THE DOMESTIC GROWTH IS NOW EVIDENT.
IIP GREW AT THE SLOWER THAN THE EXPECTED RATE IN JULY 2011, MAINLY DUE TO FALL IN CAPITAL GOODS PRODUCTION AND ALSO BECAUSE OF HIGH BASE OF LAST YEAR. AS PER THE NEW INDEX , WITH 2004-05 AS BASE, JULY 2011, IIP INCREASED BY 3.3% FROM A YEAR EARLIER- THE SLOWEST IN 21 MONTHS, AFTER GROWING BY 8.8% LAST MONTH. DURING THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS (APRIL-JULY) OF THIS FISCAL, IIP GROWTH STOOD AT 5.80% AGAINST 9.7% IN THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF LAST YEAR. HOWEVER, CONSUMER DURABLES AND BASIC GOODS SECTOR PROVIDED SOME COMFORT AS BOTH THE SECTORS REGISTERED AN UPTICK IN GROWTH.
TODAY'S IIP GROWTH NUMBER WAS TO A LARGER EXTENT DRIVEN BY THE MODERATION IN VOLATILE CAPITAL GOODS AS WELL AS MANUFACTURING SECTORS AS THE EFFECTS OF ON GOING MONETARY TIGHTENING, HIGH LEVEL OF INFLATION, TIGHT CAPACITY ARE BEING TAKEN PLACE. DESPITE THAT, SECTORS LIKE CONSUMER DURABLES AND BASIC GOODS REGISTERED STRONG NUMBERS, WHICH MEANS FINAL DEMAND IS STILL REMAIN STABLE.
SO, WHILE THIS MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED IIP GROWTH NUMBER IS A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR RBI BUT INFLATION CONTINUES TO BE BIGGER WORRY. THUS, 25bps RATE HIKE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE NEXT RBI POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011. ANALYST EXPECT THAT THIS COULD BE FINAL RATE HIKE AND RBI MAY PAUSE AFTER THIS FOR SOME TIME AND REVIEW THE INFLATION AS GOOD MONSOON AND FALLING COMMODITY PRICES AND CRUDE OIL COULD BRING THE INFLATION DOWN ON THE NATURAL PROCESS.
NOW THE MAJOR TRIGGER FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS SHOULD BE
(A) DOMESTICALLY: INFLATION DATA ON 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011 AND RBI POLICY MEET ON 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011.
(B) GLOBALLY: DATA FROM U.S AND EUROPE, IMPORTANT FED MEET SCHEDULED ON 20TH & 21ST SEPTEMBER 2011, WHERE CHAIRMAN BEN BERNANKE MAY DECLARE 'SOME APPROPRIATE STEPS', MAY INCLUDE QE3 .
IN THE SHORT TERM THE BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKET SHOULD BE 4900 TO 5100. IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 4900 THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BE DOWN & NIFTY COULD BE 4720-4650. IF THE GLOBAL CUES ARE POSITIVE,NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK, TO THE LEVEL OF 5060-5100-5170 AND THEN TO 5350.
FOR TODAY: ITS TIME TO BUY NIFTY CALL OPTION FOR BOUNCE BACK. BUY NIFTY CE4900 & CE5000 KEEPING 4900 AS STOP-LOSS TO BOOK PROFIT ON INTRA-DAY BASIS ONLY. NO HOLDING FOR WEDNESDAY IN CALL OPTION IS SUGGESTED, AS THERE COULD BE NEGATIVE WEDNESDAY ON GLOBAL CUES. BUY PUT OPTION AT THE END OF TODAY'S TRADING PE 5000 & PE4900. TO CONCLUDE BUY CALL OPTION IN THE MORNING SESSION OR WHEN MARKET BLIPS LOWER DURING THE DAY AND PUT OPTION AT THE TIME WHEN MARKET REACHES THE HIGHEST POINT TOWARDS 5000.
ASTROLOGICALLY: TUESDAY OPEN IS FLAT/WEAK, RANGE BOUND TRADE DURING THE DAY & BULLISH AT THE END. WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO ONE CAN BUY PUT OPTIONS AT THE CLOSING SESSION.
STOCKS/FUTURE/OPTIONS:
1. BUY ORCHID CHEM FUTURE(197.00): BUY ON DIPS KEEPING 170 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 250++ VERY SOON. NEWS BASED INFO.
2.BUY ITC FUTURE(196.80): BUY ON DIPS KEEPING 190 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 210+++
IIP GREW AT THE SLOWER THAN THE EXPECTED RATE IN JULY 2011, MAINLY DUE TO FALL IN CAPITAL GOODS PRODUCTION AND ALSO BECAUSE OF HIGH BASE OF LAST YEAR. AS PER THE NEW INDEX , WITH 2004-05 AS BASE, JULY 2011, IIP INCREASED BY 3.3% FROM A YEAR EARLIER- THE SLOWEST IN 21 MONTHS, AFTER GROWING BY 8.8% LAST MONTH. DURING THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS (APRIL-JULY) OF THIS FISCAL, IIP GROWTH STOOD AT 5.80% AGAINST 9.7% IN THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF LAST YEAR. HOWEVER, CONSUMER DURABLES AND BASIC GOODS SECTOR PROVIDED SOME COMFORT AS BOTH THE SECTORS REGISTERED AN UPTICK IN GROWTH.
TODAY'S IIP GROWTH NUMBER WAS TO A LARGER EXTENT DRIVEN BY THE MODERATION IN VOLATILE CAPITAL GOODS AS WELL AS MANUFACTURING SECTORS AS THE EFFECTS OF ON GOING MONETARY TIGHTENING, HIGH LEVEL OF INFLATION, TIGHT CAPACITY ARE BEING TAKEN PLACE. DESPITE THAT, SECTORS LIKE CONSUMER DURABLES AND BASIC GOODS REGISTERED STRONG NUMBERS, WHICH MEANS FINAL DEMAND IS STILL REMAIN STABLE.
SO, WHILE THIS MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED IIP GROWTH NUMBER IS A MATTER OF CONCERN FOR RBI BUT INFLATION CONTINUES TO BE BIGGER WORRY. THUS, 25bps RATE HIKE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE NEXT RBI POLICY MEET SCHEDULED ON 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011. ANALYST EXPECT THAT THIS COULD BE FINAL RATE HIKE AND RBI MAY PAUSE AFTER THIS FOR SOME TIME AND REVIEW THE INFLATION AS GOOD MONSOON AND FALLING COMMODITY PRICES AND CRUDE OIL COULD BRING THE INFLATION DOWN ON THE NATURAL PROCESS.
NOW THE MAJOR TRIGGER FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS SHOULD BE
(A) DOMESTICALLY: INFLATION DATA ON 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011 AND RBI POLICY MEET ON 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011.
(B) GLOBALLY: DATA FROM U.S AND EUROPE, IMPORTANT FED MEET SCHEDULED ON 20TH & 21ST SEPTEMBER 2011, WHERE CHAIRMAN BEN BERNANKE MAY DECLARE 'SOME APPROPRIATE STEPS', MAY INCLUDE QE3 .
IN THE SHORT TERM THE BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKET SHOULD BE 4900 TO 5100. IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 4900 THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BE DOWN & NIFTY COULD BE 4720-4650. IF THE GLOBAL CUES ARE POSITIVE,NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK, TO THE LEVEL OF 5060-5100-5170 AND THEN TO 5350.
FOR TODAY: ITS TIME TO BUY NIFTY CALL OPTION FOR BOUNCE BACK. BUY NIFTY CE4900 & CE5000 KEEPING 4900 AS STOP-LOSS TO BOOK PROFIT ON INTRA-DAY BASIS ONLY. NO HOLDING FOR WEDNESDAY IN CALL OPTION IS SUGGESTED, AS THERE COULD BE NEGATIVE WEDNESDAY ON GLOBAL CUES. BUY PUT OPTION AT THE END OF TODAY'S TRADING PE 5000 & PE4900. TO CONCLUDE BUY CALL OPTION IN THE MORNING SESSION OR WHEN MARKET BLIPS LOWER DURING THE DAY AND PUT OPTION AT THE TIME WHEN MARKET REACHES THE HIGHEST POINT TOWARDS 5000.
ASTROLOGICALLY: TUESDAY OPEN IS FLAT/WEAK, RANGE BOUND TRADE DURING THE DAY & BULLISH AT THE END. WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK SO ONE CAN BUY PUT OPTIONS AT THE CLOSING SESSION.
STOCKS/FUTURE/OPTIONS:
1. BUY ORCHID CHEM FUTURE(197.00): BUY ON DIPS KEEPING 170 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 250++ VERY SOON. NEWS BASED INFO.
2.BUY ITC FUTURE(196.80): BUY ON DIPS KEEPING 190 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 210+++
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.