ON TRACKING THE POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES FROM ASIA, INDIAN MARKETS OPENED STRONG, HOWEVER PROFIT BOOKING WAS SEEN BEFORE RBI POLICY MEETING. HOWEVER MARKET RECOVERED AND GAINED TO POSITIVE TERRITORY FROM THE CUES COMING FROM EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES THAT FRANCE & GERMANY WOULD STAND BY GREECE IN CASE OF DEFAULT. ALSO DOMESTICALLY THE ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS OF THE COMPANIES LIKE RELIANCE & HDFC BANK WERE ABOVE ESTIMATES WHILE SBI ADVANCE TAX FIGURE DISAPPOINTED. OVERALL THE FIGURES ARE BELOW EXPECTATIONS. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5075.70, UP BY 63.15 WHILE SENSEX CLOSED AT 16876.54, UP BY 166.94. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE CLOSED IN GREEN. MOREOVER AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED THE PETROL PRICE WAS HIKED BY THE OIL MARKETING COMPANIES BY Rs.3.14/Ltr ARGUMENTATION OF DEPRECIATING RUPEE CAUSING HIGHER IMPORT COST OF CRUDE OIL. ALSO THE FPO OF ONGC DEFERRED BY 15-30 DAYS.
GOING FORWARD THE RBI POLICY MEET SHALL BE THE FOCUS TODAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXPERTS IS FOR HIKE OF 25bps IN REPO-RATE. THIS MUCH HIKE IS PRICED IN THE MARKETS. NOW THERE COULD BE FOLLOWING OUTCOMES OF THE POLICY MEET AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET:
SITUATION 1. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Then the markets have already priced in the same and after a volatility, markets will catch the direction based on global cues. However, if the language of RBI remains hawkish and sounding for further rate hikes to contain the inflation, neglecting the growth, then markets could see profit booking. Nifty may be making high near 5180-5200 and low near 4980-5000.
SITUATION 2. IF THERE IS 50bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Market shall not be able to digest this rate hike and it may tank. Nifty could break below 4900 in such case heading for 4700-4650.. The chances of this situation is less.
SITUATION 3. IF THERE IS NO HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: This situation may bring a short term cheer in the market. Nifty will see huge short covering rally may be to 5350-5400, along with buying in Infra, Banking & Real Estate stocks. However there will be profit booking later-on.
There are equal chances that RBI may hike rates or pause as the growth concerns may also be hit. However if the RBI concerns to contain the inflation further using the rate hike tool, may certainly hit the growth of economy and affect the stock market severely. Any change in CRR or SLR might also affect the market accordingly. HENCE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF SITUATION 1 or SITUATION 3
NIFTY HAS TAKEN SUPPORT AROUND 4900. HENCE 4900 IS SHORT TERM BASE. YESTERDAY NIFTY HAS MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5075, AND IF THE RBI POLICY IS CONGENIAL TO MARKETS(SITUATION 1 OR SITUATION 3) THEN NIFTY MAY LIKELY TO TOUCH 5200 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IN ANY OTHER SITUATION THE MARKET COULD FALL. ALL LONGS SHOULD HAVE STOP-LOSS OF 4900. BELOW WHICH NIFTY SHALL TEST 4700-4650.
STRATEGY FOR TODAY: THOSE HOLDING THE STRADDLE OF 5000(AS BEING SUGGESTED YESTERDAY), SHOULD WAIT TILL RBI COMES OUT WITH THE POLICY. AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.
IF THERE IS RALLY BOOK PROFIT IN THE CALLS TILL MID-NOON (1PM-1.30PM) AND HOLD PUTS TO BOOK PROFIT ON MONDAY.
IF THE MARKET TAKES THE POLICY NEGATIVELY THEN BOOK WHATEVER LOSS IS THERE IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR MONDAY.
(NOTE: MONDAY-TUESDAY LOOKS MORE BEARISH)
ASTROLOGICALLY: THOUGH THE PLANETARY SITUATION SHOW THE POOR COMBINATION AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE MARKET TODAY, WHICH MIGHT START AFFECTING THE MARKETS DURING THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER MONDAY, 19TH SEPTEMBER AND TUESDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER LOOKS EXTREMELY BEARISH, WHAT EVER BE THE OTHER FACTORS. HENCE WE SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE MARKET RISES, PUT HOLDERS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL. BOOK PROFITS IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR NEXT WEEK. IN NEXT WEEK 19TH, 20TH, 21ST LOOK WEAK AND FRIDAY 23RD LOOKS STRONG UP. HENCE HUGE VOLATILITY WILL BE SEEN IN THIS WEEK. IT IS FIRM BELIEVE THAT NIFTY MAY HIT THE LOWS SOONER OR LATER.
DON'T PANIC AND PLAY SAFE, BOTH BULLS AND BEARS WILL GET THE CHANCE IN THIS MONTH..........5200-4700 SHALL BE THE RANGE IN SEPTEMBER.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD THE RBI POLICY MEET SHALL BE THE FOCUS TODAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXPERTS IS FOR HIKE OF 25bps IN REPO-RATE. THIS MUCH HIKE IS PRICED IN THE MARKETS. NOW THERE COULD BE FOLLOWING OUTCOMES OF THE POLICY MEET AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET:
SITUATION 1. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Then the markets have already priced in the same and after a volatility, markets will catch the direction based on global cues. However, if the language of RBI remains hawkish and sounding for further rate hikes to contain the inflation, neglecting the growth, then markets could see profit booking. Nifty may be making high near 5180-5200 and low near 4980-5000.
SITUATION 2. IF THERE IS 50bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Market shall not be able to digest this rate hike and it may tank. Nifty could break below 4900 in such case heading for 4700-4650.. The chances of this situation is less.
SITUATION 3. IF THERE IS NO HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: This situation may bring a short term cheer in the market. Nifty will see huge short covering rally may be to 5350-5400, along with buying in Infra, Banking & Real Estate stocks. However there will be profit booking later-on.
There are equal chances that RBI may hike rates or pause as the growth concerns may also be hit. However if the RBI concerns to contain the inflation further using the rate hike tool, may certainly hit the growth of economy and affect the stock market severely. Any change in CRR or SLR might also affect the market accordingly. HENCE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF SITUATION 1 or SITUATION 3
NIFTY HAS TAKEN SUPPORT AROUND 4900. HENCE 4900 IS SHORT TERM BASE. YESTERDAY NIFTY HAS MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5075, AND IF THE RBI POLICY IS CONGENIAL TO MARKETS(SITUATION 1 OR SITUATION 3) THEN NIFTY MAY LIKELY TO TOUCH 5200 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IN ANY OTHER SITUATION THE MARKET COULD FALL. ALL LONGS SHOULD HAVE STOP-LOSS OF 4900. BELOW WHICH NIFTY SHALL TEST 4700-4650.
STRATEGY FOR TODAY: THOSE HOLDING THE STRADDLE OF 5000(AS BEING SUGGESTED YESTERDAY), SHOULD WAIT TILL RBI COMES OUT WITH THE POLICY. AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.
IF THERE IS RALLY BOOK PROFIT IN THE CALLS TILL MID-NOON (1PM-1.30PM) AND HOLD PUTS TO BOOK PROFIT ON MONDAY.
IF THE MARKET TAKES THE POLICY NEGATIVELY THEN BOOK WHATEVER LOSS IS THERE IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR MONDAY.
(NOTE: MONDAY-TUESDAY LOOKS MORE BEARISH)
ASTROLOGICALLY: THOUGH THE PLANETARY SITUATION SHOW THE POOR COMBINATION AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE MARKET TODAY, WHICH MIGHT START AFFECTING THE MARKETS DURING THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER MONDAY, 19TH SEPTEMBER AND TUESDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER LOOKS EXTREMELY BEARISH, WHAT EVER BE THE OTHER FACTORS. HENCE WE SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE MARKET RISES, PUT HOLDERS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL. BOOK PROFITS IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR NEXT WEEK. IN NEXT WEEK 19TH, 20TH, 21ST LOOK WEAK AND FRIDAY 23RD LOOKS STRONG UP. HENCE HUGE VOLATILITY WILL BE SEEN IN THIS WEEK. IT IS FIRM BELIEVE THAT NIFTY MAY HIT THE LOWS SOONER OR LATER.
DON'T PANIC AND PLAY SAFE, BOTH BULLS AND BEARS WILL GET THE CHANCE IN THIS MONTH..........5200-4700 SHALL BE THE RANGE IN SEPTEMBER.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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