FINANCIAL ASTRO VIKAS

WELCOME TO HINDU ASTROLOGY AND VEDAS. THE APPLICATION OF TOOLS OF VEDIC ASTROLOGY ARE MULTI FOLD AND DYNAMIC. ALL ACTIVITIES OF LIFE CONCERNED WITH THE MATTER, MATERIAL, SPIRIT, SPIRITUAL, LIVING AS WELL AS NON LIVING IS STUDIES AND PREDICTED, VERY WELL. ASHTAK-VARG, SHODASH-VARG, GOCHAR CHAKRA, ETC ARE USED TO PREDICT THE COURSE OF FINANCIAL AND COMMODITIES MARKET WITH CERTAIN LIMITATIONS THIS BLOG IS AN ATTEMPT TO VIEW THE INDIAN MARKETS UNDER ASTROLOGICAL RADAR.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 30TH SEPTEMBER 2011

AFTER CONSOLIDATING FOR A DAY INDIAN MARKETS RESUMED THE DECENT SHORT COVERING RALLY IN A VOLATILE SESSION ON F&O EXPIRY. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5015.45, UP 69.55 AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16698.07, UP 252.05. MARKET BREADTH WAS ---- AND BOTH BSE MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE ---- BY LESS THAN 1%. ANALYSTS SAID THE TRADING SENTIMENT WAS BOLSTERED BY FIRM ASIAN TREND AND REBOUND IN THE EUROPEAN MARKETS ON HOPES THAT GERMAN LAW MAKERS WILL APPROVE FUNDS FOR BAILOUT OF EUROPE’S DEBT-LADEN NATIONS. BUYING WAS SO STRONG THAT A SURGE IN FOOD INFLATION FAILED TO DAMPEN THE MARKET SENTIMENT. FOOD INFLATION ROSE 9.13% FOR WEEK ENDED SEPTEMBER 17, 2011 FROM 8.84% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. INVESTORS WERE SEEN COVERING PENDING POSITIONS ON THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER’S SETTLEMENT IN THE DERIVATIVES SEGMENT, WHICH ALSO FUELLED THE BUYING ACTIVITY.

GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE GUIDED MAINLY BY GLOBAL CUES AS THERE REMAINS NO NEAR TERM TRIGGERS DOMESTICALLY. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 5170 TO 4750. BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING AT LEAST 300 POINTS MOVE. OVERALL THE SENTIMENT REMAINS CAUTIOUS AND LACKS CONVICTION.

FOR TODAY THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH FOR IS 5020 & 5050, ABOVE WHICH 5110 AND 5170 REMAINS THE TARGET. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5000 THEN NIFTY 4940-4900 SHALL BE THE STRNG SUPPORTS, BELOW WHICH 4750 OR BELOW COULD BE TESTED.

HENCE 4900-5050 REMAINS NO TRADING ZONE. TRADE IN OPTIONS ONLY WHEN THESE LEVELS ARE BROKEN ON EITHER SIDE.

ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT NIFTY MIGHT APPROACH 5110-5170 LEVELS, FROM WHERE IT HAS REVERTED TWO TIMES. BUYING OF PUTS OF OCTOBER SERIES IS SUGGESTED BY ANALYSTS ONLY WHEN NIFTY REACHES NEAR RESISTANCE LEVEL OR BREAKS THE STRONG SUPPORT OF 4900. BUYING OF NIFTY CALLS OR PUTS IN THE RANGE OF 4900-5050 MAY RESULT IN LOSSES DUE TO EROSION IN VALUE DUE TO RANGE BOUND MOVE FOR A WEEK OR TWO.

NOTE THAT ANALYSTS HAVE REGULARLY SUGGESTED THAT BUYING IN SELECT STOCK AT EVERY LEVELS SHOULD BE DONE, HOWEVER AS THERE REMAINS CLOUD OF UNCERTAINITY INVESTORS ARE WAITING FOR A DEEP CUT AND CORRECTION. HOEVER IT MAY OR MAY NOT COME. NIFTY MAY TEST 4500 OR MAY NOT HENCE IT IS ADVISABLE TO KEEP PICKING SELECT STOCKS.

TO ME IT SEEMS NIFTY SHALL SOONER OR LATER TEST RECENT LOWS AND MAY GO BELOW THAT. BUT ONE CAN START BUYING SELECT STOCKS ON EVERY FALL.

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL REMIAN SUBDUED TODAY, AND THERE WILL BE A RANGE BOUND MOVE.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 28TH SEPTEMBER 2011

AFTER THE FOUR DAYS OF CONTINUOUS FALL IT WITNESSED A SHARP CORRECTIVE RALLY IN INDICES ALONG WITH SHORT COVERING IN STOCKS. SENSEX RALLYING ALMOST 500 POINTS INTRA-DAY, AIDED BY STRONG U.S MARKET OVER NIGHT AND POSITIVE GLOBAL CLUES. THE BSE SENSEX WAS UP 472.93 AT 16524.03 AND NIFTY WAS UP 135.85 AT 4971.25 ON CLOSE. MARKET BREADTH WAS QUITE STRONG AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDICES ENDED IN GREEN.

GOING FORWARD THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4750-5170. MAJORITY OF ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THAT THIS IS CORRECTIVE RALLY AND MAY FIZZLE OUT SOON AS IT REACHES 5100-5200 LEVELS. THE BROAD OUTLOOK REMAINS GRIM AS NOTHING HAS CHANGED POSITIVE OVERNIGHT. ANALYSTS ALSO BELIEVE THAT INDIAN MARKETS ARE NOT CHEAP AND NIFTY COULD SETTLE AROUND 4400-4500 VERY SOON.
HENCE ON THIS BASIS THE CONSENSUS BELIEVE THAT 4750-5170 SHALL BE THE BROAD RANGE AND BREAK OF EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING 300 POINTS MOVE. CLEARLY THE TREND IS DOWNWARDS.

BROAD STRATEGY: BUY IN SELECT STOCKS OF YOUR CHOICE, WHICH COULD FETCH VALUE CREATING TO SHAREHOLDERS. SOME OF THE STOCKS WERE MENTIONED YESTERDAY. BUY SOME PUTS OF OCTOBER SERIES OF STRIKE PRICE PE 5100, PE5000, PE4900 & PE4800 THIS MAY HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AND MAY GIVE SOME PROFITS TOO.

ASTROLOGICALLY: 3RD, 4TH & 10TH ARE CRUCIAL DATES IN OCTOBER WHICH COULD GIVE SHOCKS TO MARKETS. BUYING OF OCTOBER PUTS SHALL BE GOOD.
ITS IMPORTANT TO SEE HOW 27TH & 28TH PANS OUT IN AMERICA, IF IT GOES POSITIVE, THEN THE NEXT DATES OF OCTOBER, MENTIONED ABOVE, SHALL BE THE CRUCIAL DATES FOR TRIGGER.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 27TH SEPTEMBER 2011

MAINLY DUE TO GLOBAL CUES, INDIAN MARKET SLIPPED DURING A VOLATILE SESSION AND EVEN A HANDSOME RECOVERY FROM THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY COULD NOT SAVE THE MARKET FROM CLOSING IN RED ON THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION. WHILE SHORT COVERING AND REBOUND IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS LED A RECOVERY IN THE LAST TWO HOURS OF THE DAY, A SHARP CUT IN THE INDICES OF CAPITAL GOOD, METAL, FMCG, POWER AND AUTO STOCKS LED TO CLOSE THE MARKET IN THE RED. MELT DOWN IN THE PRICES OF THE GLOBAL COMMODITIES ALSO LED TO THE FALL IN EQUITIES, REFLECTED BY THE POOR SENTIMENTS OF GROWTH AND RISK AVERSION AND SHIFT OF INVESTMENT THEME FROM COMMODITIES TO CURRENCIES. NIFTY HIT INTRA-DAY LOW OF 4758.85 AND FINALLY CLOSED AT 4835.40, DOWN 32.35 POINTS, WHILE SENSEX MADE AN INTRA-DAY LOW OF 15801.01 AND RECOVERED TO CLOSE AT 16051.10, DOWN BY 110.96 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE DOWN AROUND 2%.

GOING FORWARD 4750 & 5170 SHALL BE THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH FOR. IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4750 THEN THERE WILL BE FREE FALL TO 4700-4650 & THEN BELOW THAT TO 4500-4400-4330. HENCE KEEP EYE ON 4750(ON CLOSING BASIS). CHANCES ARE VERY MUCH THAT NIFTY WILL TEST 4650-4600 ZONE VERY SOON.

ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5170 THEN NIFTY SHALL HEAD TOWARDS 5230-5350-5400(CHANCES ARE VERY LESS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM).

FOR TODAY: 4820-4870 ARE THE KEY LEVELS TO WATCH.
ABOVE 4870 NIFTY SHALL TEST 4920-4930-4950-4980 SHALL BE THE LEVELS WHERE NIFTY COULD REACH ON SHORT COVERING AHEAD OF SEPTEMBER FUTURE SETTLEMENT.
BELOW 4820 NIFTY SHALL TAKE SUPPORT AT 4760-4750 AND THEN SLIP TO 4700-4680 ON FURTHER FALL.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO?????

ITS TIME TO WAIT AND WATCH. LET THE NIFTY CONSOLIDATE IN THIS RANGE 4750-4950 AND TAKE A FRESH CALL ON MOVE BEYOND THESE LEVELS. THIS RANGE WILL DECIDE THE TREND OF THE NIFTY IN DAYS TO COME. HENCE YOU AT THE CROSS ROADS, DON'T TAKE YOUR OWN VIEW AND CALL IN THE MARKET, FOLLOW THE TREND. ITS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TECHNICALS ARE THE REFLECTION OF BEHAVIORS OF PARTICIPANTS, WHICH DOESN'T INTEGRATE THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY. HENCE THERE ARE SOME TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND TOOL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO CONCLUDE THAT NIFTY MAY MOVE TO 4000 OR EVEN BELOW. BUT THERE IS A WIDE GAP OF 'MAY'. IT MAY HAPPEN OR NOT HAPPEN. NIFTY MAY GO TO 4000 OR BELOW OR MAY NOT GO BELOW 4000. HENCE CONCLUDING THAT NIFTY WILL MOVE TO 4000 OR BELOW SHALL CAUSE CAUTION AND FEAR IN THE MIND OF THE INVESTOR AND TRADER AND THIS MAY MISLEAD AND MANY WISE PEOPLE MAY MISS THE BUS.
NO BODY KNOWS THE FUTURE OF THE MARKETS, NO ANALYST, NO ASTROLOGER, NO HNI TRADER, NO FII OR NOT EVEN THE FINANCE MINISTER OR PRIME MINISTER. THAT'S WHY ALL WISE AND COMPETENT FUND MANAGERS USE THE BASIC INVESTING AND TRADING PRINCIPLES AND ONE SUCH PRINCIPLE IS--"Spread your buying in several parts and be the buyer on every dip". It means to say that If you like a script say, if you want to invest in SBI note the 52 month high and low and see where the price is and start buying 25% on every fall of 10%. This will make you in a good trading cycle, which will give you opportunity to trade and invest both and never give you losses. Avoid using Stop-Loss theory in this market at this point.
HENCE EVERY WISE PERSON SHOULD START INVESTING, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE MARKET TREND AND FORGET ASKING AND SEARCHING THE QUESTIONS LIKE: "Where do you see the market?" "How will the market be tomorrow?" and so on...

BEST STOCKS TO PICK NOW ARE:
1. RALLIS
2. SKUMAR NATION (very low price)
3. COAL INDIA
4. HDFC BANK
5. LIC HOUSING FINANCE
6. EXIDE
7. GITANJALI
8. TITAN
9. GUJRAT FLOURO
10. HIND OIL EXPLORATION(very low price)
11. NEYVELLI LIG (very low price)
12. PATNI (very low price)
13. RCOM (very low price)
14. SCI (very low price)
15. STERLITE IND (very low price)
16. UNITECH (very low price)
17. BATA
18. ESCORTS
19. ARVIND IND
20. APTECH.

ASTROLOGICALLY: I see the cluster of planet again on 27th September evening and 28th September, 2011. This shows that America and Global Markets could have sudden and surprise moves, which may nervous the traders of both kind-Bulls & Bears.
Its time to stay away for next 2-3 days for trading. Best is to trade in Options and have very selective Stock Picks as there will be shocks and surprises both. Shock will be very bitter now. Nifty will also get the heat. No large position is suggest in either side.Buying of PUTs PE4800, PE4700 and PE4600(OCT SERIES), shall give fast buck. Use 5170 as stop-loss in all case of OCT PUTs.

There are 50% chances that I may go wrong in my astrological analysis. Take your own decision making instinct and capacities.

Monday, September 26, 2011

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 26th SEPT 2011 TO 30TH SEPT 2011

INDIAN STOCK MARKET LOST ITS GROUND ON THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK, AFTER THE FED MEET COMMENT OF WEAK GLOBAL OUTLOOK. THERE WAS HUGE SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS, WHICH SENT A CORRECTIVE WAVE IN BOTH EQUITY AND COMMODITY MARKETS, AND DOLLAR & BONDS RALLY. ALSO INDIA'S FOOD INFLATION ENDED AT 8.84% FOR THE WEEK ENDED AT 10TH SEPTEMBER , 2011 AGAINST 9.47% A WEEK AGO.
LAST WEEK WHILE THE FED'S DECISION WAS LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS, MARKETS REACTED NEGATIVELY TO FED'S DOWN BEAT ASSESSMENT FOR THE ECONOMY. FED NOTED THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK , INCLUDING STRAINS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS. NIFTY ENDED AT 4967.75 AND SENSEX AT 16162.06

GOING FORWARD MARKETS SHALL BE VERY CHOPPY AS VOLATILITY IN GLOBAL COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES ALONG WITH F&O EXPIRY OF SEPTEMBER SERIES SHALL BE THE FOCUS OF BIG MARKET PARTICIPANTS, FIIs AND DIIs. HOWEVER ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE THE SHARP DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE vs DOLLAR, FIIs HAVEN'T EXITED INDIAN MARKETS IN A BIG WAY AS REFLECTED IN THE DATA FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23RD SEPTEMBER. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THEIR UNDER-OWNERSHIP IN BLUE CHIP STOCKS, WHICH HAS FALLEN OVER A PERIOD. IF THE GLOBAL TREMORS STOPS NIFTY IS LIKELY TO SHOW RESILIENCE AT 4800 MARK, WHERE FUND HOUSE MAY START SELECTIVE BUYING IN SECTORS LIKE I.T., FMCG, OIL & GAS, TELECOM ETC.,

AT 16000 SENSEX AND 4800 NIFTY VALUATION SEEMS JUSTIFIED. NIFTY AT 11.40xFY13(E) EPS OF 427 DOESN'T LOOK EXPENSIVE CONSIDERING THAT WEE ARE SEEING ALL THE WORST NEWS AND FACTORS AT THE EXTREME NEGATIVE. BUY IN FRONT LINE STOCKS LIKE BHEL, ITC, TCS, L&T ETC., BY THE FUND HOUSE COULD BE SEEN IF NIFTY SUSTAINS 4800 AND SENSEX 16000.

TECHNICALLY AS SAID EARLIER SEVERAL TIMES THAT 5000 IS THE MAIN DECIDING LEVEL FOR THE SEPTEMBER SERIES AND NIFTY HAS BROKEN THE CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF 4900 ON FRIDAY IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DOWNWARD MOVEMENT OF NIFTY SHALL CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE TIME AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 4650-4700 SOON, HOWEVER VARIOUS TECHNICAL ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5109 AND 5059 ON LAST THURSDAY. SO SOME SHORT TERM PULL BACK RALLY OR CORRECTIVE RALLY COULD BE SEEN WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 5159.

FOR THIS WEEK NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4800 AND RESISTANCE AT 4960. NOW NOTE VERY CLEARLY THAT:
(A): IF NIFTY BREAKS 4800( BUY PE 4800 & PE 4700), WHICH MAY TAKE NIFTY TO 4720 & 4650.
(B): IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 4960(BUY CE4900 & CE5000) THEN LEVEL OF 5020-5110 WOULD BE THE TARGET.

STOCK/FUTURE/OPTIONS:
THIS IS PURELY NEWS BASED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPECULATORS, I DON'T SUGGEST FOR ANY PORTFOLIO BUYING OR LARGE PLAY IN THESE COUNTERS:
1. UNION BANK FUT(OCT SERIES): BUY AROUND 238 OR NEAR STOP-LOSS OF 225 FOR THE TARGET OF 245-250-255+++

2. BATA FUT(OCT SERIES): SHORT BATA AT CMP(AROUND 660) OR ON EVERY RISE TILL 670-680 STOP-LOSS 690 FOR THE TARGET OF 640-620-600

3. RUCHI SOYA(113.95): BUY THIS STOCK ON FALL OR DIP(NEAR 110-111-113) FOR THE TARGET OF 130++ VERY SOON. YOU MAY KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 103-103.50

NIFTY SETTLEMENT: OPTION DATA SUGGEST THAT NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE BELOW 4800 BUT ABOVE 4600. HENCE TODAY'S ACTION IN F&O OF NIFTY SHALL GIVE MORE CLEAR PICTURE. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE VERY CLEAR THAT RANGE OF SETTLEMENT SHALL BE 4800-4600.

ASTROLOGICALLY: AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST THAT OCTOBER/NOVEMBER & DECEMBER SHALL BE VERY VERY POOR FOR INDIA AND INDIAN MARKETS. THERE COULD BE NATURAL CALAMITIES, TERRORIST ACTIVITIES AND TURBULENT STOCK & COMMODITY MARKETS, WE COULD SEE NIFTY HEADING TO MUCH LOWER LEVELS GOING FORWARD. MAY BE 4500-4400-4300 VISITED SOON IN OCTOBER.

NOTE: THOUGH FUNDAMENTALLY MARKET SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT 16000/4800(SENSEX/NIFTY), HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME ABERRATIONAL MOVE IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH MAY PUSH THE INDICES AT LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER NOTE THAT ONE SHOULD CONSIDER BUYING STOCKS IN STAGGERED MANNER AND IN SMALL QUANTITIES AND ACCUMULATE AT LOWER LEVELS. BUYING OF PUTS AT EVERY HIGHER LEVELS SHALL GIVE PROFITS IN 90% TRADES.

THERE ARE 40% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. KINDLY USE YOUR OWN JUDGMENT AND KNOWLEDGE.

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

Friday, September 23, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 23RD SEPTEMBER 2011 & ASTROLOGICAL VIEW

NOTHING IS SPARED BY THE BLOOD BATH IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS NOT EVEN INDIAN MARKET, WHICH WERE DAILY INCHING UP FROM 4911 TO 5169 AND NOW AGAIN BACK TO 4923.65 IN JUST TWO DAYS. THIS COMPLETE PATTERN AND INDICATION OF BEAR MARKET. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4923.65, DOWN 209.60 AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16361.15, DOWN 704 POINTS AS THE INDIAN RUPEE SLUMPED BELOW 49/$, AND THE GLOBAL SELL-OFF ADDED TO THE FUEL TO THE FIRE. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE DOWN 3%.

GOING FORWARD, MARKET SHALL BE BUMPY AND ROUGH. BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4650-4700 TO 5170-5200. HOWEVER FALL SHALL CONTINUE IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 4900-4880 FROM NOW. HENCE ANY LONG SHOULD HAVE STOP-LOSS OF 4880 IN ANY CASE.
FUNDAMENTALLY LOOKING SENSEX AT 16000-15700 AND NIFTY AT 4700-4650 IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS. THOSE WHO WISH TO MAKE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO SHOULD START BUYING AT LEAST FOR 30%-40% AT THESE LEVELS.
NO ONE KNOWS THE FUTURE PERFECTLY, HENCE THUMB RULES AND THE PRINCIPLES OF INVESTMENT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED. THE INDIAN MARKETS WILL SOONER OR LATER RECOVER FROM THE GLOBAL SHOCKS AND START MOVING NORTH WARDS. MAY BE FROM 15700-16000 OR FROM 15000 NO ONE KNOWS. SO IF YOU WAIT FOR MORE DOWNFALL, HEARING THE DIFFERENT PESSIMISTIC AND CAUTIOUS VIEWS,YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET THE LEAST PROFIT RATHER SETTLE WITH LOSSES OR HIGHER COST OF PORTFOLIO RESULTING IN LOW RETURNS.

HENCE START BUYING THE QUALITY STOCKS, WHICH I HAVE MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES. TATASTEEL, HDFCBANK, LIC HOUSING FINANCE, COAL INDIA, BHEL, SKUMARS, RALLIS, SHALIMAR PAINTS, ITC, HUL, RELIANCE, BHARTI ETC., TO NAME THE FEW.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4900-4880 BREAK OF WHICH SHALL RESULT IN NIFTY TOUCHING 4840-4805. ON THE HIGHER SIDE ABOVE 4940 NIFTY SHALL HIT 4960-4980-5000.THERE ARE CHANCES THAT NIFTY SHALL BOUNCE BACK FROM 4880-4900 ODD LEVELS.

ASTROLOGICALLY: NIFTY MAY OPEN LOWER ON WEAK GLOBAL CUES HOWEVER IT SHALL RECOVER TODAY AND THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY SHALL SEE GREEN.

NEXT POOR PLANETARY MOVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ON 26TH, 27TH OR 28TH SEPTEMBER, WHERE THERE WILL BE HIGH VOLATILE MOVEMENTS. STAYING AWAY FROM THE MARKETS IN THESE DAYS IS THE BEST...... ENJOY THE HOLIDAY ON THESE DATES, OR THERE COULD BE LOSSES.

AS ALREADY TOLD OCTOBER/NOVEMBER IS GOING TO BE VERY VERY POOR FOR INDIA AND ALSO FOR INDIAN MARKETS. ONE SHOULD KEEPING THIS VIEW SHALL BUY QUALITY STOCKS IN SMALL QUANTITIES ONLY. MAY BE!!! WE MAY SEE LEVELS BELOW THE AUGUST LOW IN THIS PERIOD.

THERE ARE 40% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ANALYSIS, HENCE USE YOUR OWN WISDOM AND PROPER CONSULTATION AND GUIDANCE FROM YOUR ADVISERS BEFORE INITIATING ANY TRADE ON MY VIEW.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 22ND SEPTEMBER 2011

MARKET CLOSED ALMOST FLAT AFTER INITIAL RISE IN A VOLATILE SESSION. OIL & GAS, AUTO, FMCG, CAPITAL GOOD AND SELECT I.T STOCKS WERE UNDER SELLING PRESSURE, WHILE BANKING & TELECOM WERE IN GREEN TO SUPPORT THE MARKET. THE VOLATILITY OF THE EUROPEAN MARKETS ALSO ADDED THE DIRECTIONLESS MOVEMENT HERE. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5133.25, DOWN BY 6.95 POINTS AND SENSEX AT 17065.15, DOWN BY 34.13. THOUGH MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE UP OVER 0.7%.

GOING FORWARD THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THE BLOG, THE TWO DAYS FED MEET ENDED, WHERE THE STOCKS SLID SHARPLY WHILE TREASURIES AND DOLLAR RALLIED AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY $400 BILLION OF LONG TERM DEBT AND SAID THERE ARE "SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS" TO THE ECONOMY. THE FED WILL REPLACE SOME BONDS IN ITS PORTFOLIO WITH LONGER-TERM TREASURIES IN AN EFFORT TO FURTHER REDUCE BORROWING COSTS AND KEEP THE ECONOMY FROM RELAPSING INTO A RECESSION, CONFIRMING MARKET SPECULATION THAT POLICY MAKERS WERE PLANNING AN "OPERATION TWIST" SIMILAR TO A PROGRAM IN 1961. THE FED SAID " STRAINS IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS" WERE AMONG THE RISKS TO THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
THIS MADE HUGE SELL OF IN THE EQUITIES AND COMMODITIES LIKE LEAD, NICKEL, COPPER, SUGAR INDEX TO 1 MONTH LOWS.

HOW THE INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS. ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY INSULATED FRO THE GLOBAL DOWN SIDE RISK, HOWEVER THE RISK AVERSION BY THE INVESTORS ON WORRIES OF SLOW-DOWN ACROSS THE GLOBE MIGHT TRIGGER THE SELLING IN EMERGING MARKETS ALSO, THEN INDIA MAY ALSO SEE BLEEDING SIMILAR TO OTHER MARKETS.

HENCE THIS IS THE TIME TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS. IT MAY GIVE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT LOWER LEVELS BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS. AT THE TIME WHEN THERE LOOMS A PESSIMISM AND UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GLOBE, HOW CAN WE REMAIN UNTOUCHED. IF THE FIIs START SELLING THERE WILL BE DEEP CUTS MAKING THE STOCKS AND INDICES MUCH BELOW THE CURRENT LEVELS. OUR MARKETS ARE BUOYANT AND RESILIENT DUE TO GROWTH WHICH THE GLOBAL MANGERS PERCEIVE HERE WHEN THE INTEREST RATE CYCLE PEAKS OUT. HENCE TO CERTAIN EXTENT INDIAN MARKETS MAY RECOVER IF THERE IS ANY BLOW-IN DUE TO WORLD MARKETS AND RISK AVERSION. SITTING ON CASH WITH 50% IS NOT A BAD IDEA AT THIS POINT OF TIME. MAY BE THERE'S A GOOD OPPORTUNITY AWAITING. 4650-4700 REMAINS A GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY. IN SHORT INDIAN MARKETS MAY NOT SEE BELOW 4650, UNTIL THERE IS SOME THING VERY CASCADING IN GLOBAL MARKETS OR DOMESTIC CONSTRAINS.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST THAT 5000 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL OF NIFTY IN SEPTEMBER, NOW 5230 REMAINS THE CRUCIAL LEVEL. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN MARKETS WOULD RALLY AND RALLY TILL 5320-5400 ALSO. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5230 IS VERY IMPORTANT AS IT WILL INDICATE THAT GLOBAL FUND MANAGERS SEE NO IMMEDIATE RISK IN INDIAN MARKETS AND INDIA IS BETTER INVESTMENTS DESTINATION IN THIS RISKY GLOBAL SCENARIO. HOWEVER IF NIFTY FAILS TO SUSTAIN 5000 LEVEL THEN CERTAINLY THE CURRENT CORRECTIVE RALLY WOULD GET TERMINATED AND NIFTY COULD SEE SHARP FALLS TO 4910 AND THEN BELOW THAT TO 4800 & 4650 ALSO.
HNECE THE CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH IS 5230 & 5000. TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY WAY TILL WHEN THE NIFTY TRADES IN THIS RANGE OF 5000-5230. EITHER ENTER BELOW 5000 OR ABOVE 5230. ELSE CHANCES ARE YOUR LOOSING MORE ARE VERY HIGH.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5110 AND RESISTANCE AT 5170. HENCE THIS IS NO TRADING ZONE FOR TODAY.
IF NIFTY BREAKS 5110 THEN BUY PUTS(PE5100 & PE5000) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5065 & 5015. AND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5015-5000 THEN WAIT AND HOLD NIFTY PUTS OPTIONS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.......
IF NIFTY ON THE HIGHER SIDE SUSTAINS ABOVE 5170, THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE5100 & CE5200) FOR THE TARGETS OF 5205 & 5230. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5230 THEN WAIT AND HOLD CALLS, YOU COULD WIN A LOTTERY.

THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT NIFTY WILL FIRST TAKE SUPPORT AT 5000 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 4900. LONGS POSITIONS SHOULD BE EXITED BELOW 5015-500 AND ONLY BELOW 4900 ONE SHOULD CONSIDER SHORTING OTHERWISE BEARS MAY GET TRAPPED AGAIN......

ASTROLOGICALLY: THE CONFIGURATION SHOWS THAT MORE AND MORE PLANET FORM CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY AT PARTICULAR PLACE, WHICH MAY GIVE A 400-500 POINTS MOVEMENT IN NIFTY, MAY BE 4750-4650 OR 5550-5650. CHANCES OF DOWN SIDE RISK REMAINS MORE....
There are 30% chance that I may go wrong.
HOWEVER BE VIGILANT AND DON'T RELY OF ON ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS TOO MUCH. USE THE SIMPLE THUMB RULE ALSO. IF BELOW 5000 THEN WEAK AND MAY GO DOWN TO 4650 ALSO, IF ABOVE 5230 THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY. HENCE ITS VERY CLEAR THAT ONE SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THESE LEVELS............
AVOID STOCKS, FUTURES AND TRADE IN OPTIONS TO AVOID LOSSES AND WRONG POSITIONS.

ONE CAN JOIN ME ON "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in" on Yahoo Messenger and "Astrologer Vikas Srivastava" on face book, for live chat during the market time for any clarification and discussion.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 20TH SEPTEMBER 2011

INDIAN MARKETS FELL IN THE STARTING AND FOR THE WHOLE DAY WEAK TREND CONTINUED, DUE TO WEAK GLOBAL CUES. EVERY RECOVERY ATTEMPTED WAS SOLD OFF AND WITHIN A RANGE BOUND VOLATILITY CONTINUED. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5031.95, DOWN BY 52.30 POINTS AND SENSEX ENDED AT 16745.35, DOWN BY 188.48 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS MARGINALLY IN RED.

GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS WILL DANCE MAINLY ON GLOBAL CUES. DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ELIGIBILITY OF GREECE FOR ITS NEXT AID PAYMENT WILL BE IN FOCUS. ON THE OTHER SIDE FOMC's 2 DAYS MEET (ON U.S INTEREST RATE) IS SCHEDULED ON 20-21ST SEPTEMBER 2011. ITS IMPORTANT TO SEE WHAT FED ANNOUNCES ON FURTHER MEASURES FOR THE REVIVAL OF THE U.S ECONOMY. HOWEVER SIDE WAYS MOVEMENT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT FOR NEXT 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS. THE BROAD RANGE OF THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4900-5200.

FOR TODAY: KEEP EYE ON 5040.
IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5040 THEN NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5060 & 5090 ON THE LOWER SIDE IF NIFTY SUSTAIN BELOW 5040 THEN NIFTY COULD TOUCH TO 5010 & 4990 ALSO.

NIFTY MAY OPEN WEAK, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INTRA-DAY RECOVERY. OVERALL A RANGE BOUND TRADE(5000-5040-5100) WITH STOCK SPECIFIC ACTIVITY.

ASTROLOGICALLY: WE SUGGEST TO STAY OUT OF THE MARKET FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TRADING IN NIFTY AND STOCKS MAY RESULT IN LOSSES.

Monday, September 19, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 19TH SEPTEMBER 2011 TO 23RD SEPTEMBER 2011

AS EXPECTED RBI HAS HIKED REPO-RATE BY 25bps WITH HAWKISH LANGUAGE. MARKET NEGLECTED THE EVENT AND AFTER INITIAL BLIP MARKET RECOVERED AND CLOSED IN POSITIVE TERRITORY . NIFTY ENDED AT 5084.25 AND SENSEX AT 16933.83.

GOING FORWARD THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO TRADE ON GLOBAL CUES. EURO-ZONE DEBT CRISIS AND 2 DAYS FED POLICY REVIEW MEET ON SEPTEMBER 20-21ST, 2011 SHALL BE THE MAJOR EVENT MARKET SHALL KEEP AN EYE ON.
ITS IMPORTANT TO SEE WHETHER QE3 IS ANNOUNCED OR NOT. HENCE BOTH U.S. AND INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO TRADE IN THE RANGE. THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE NIFTY SHALL BE 4900-5300 FOR THIS WEEK.

SHORT TERM SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 4910 AND RESISTANCE AT 5230. IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5230 THE UPWARD RALLY MAY CARRY NIFTY TO 5400. HOWEVER ANY BREACH OF 4900 SHALL TAKE NIFTY TO 4800-4700. HENCE A STOP-LOSS OF 4910 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ON ALL LONG POSITIONS.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY SUPPORT AT 5020 AND RESISTANCE AT 5110.(THIS IS ALSO A NO TRADE ZONE).
IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5110 THEN 5170-5230 SHALL BE THE TARGET(BUY CE5100 & CE5200 WITH STOP-LOSS AT 5020)
AND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 5020 THEN NIFTY MAY SLIP TO 4970-4910 SHALL BE THE TARGET (BUY PE5000 & PE4900 WITH STOP-LOSS AT 5110)

ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKET SHOULD BE WEAK ON MONDAY(19TH SEPTEMBER) AND TUESDAY(20TH SEPTEMBER). BUYING PUTS AT HIGHER LEVELS SHOULD GIVE QUICK PROFITS.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011

ON TRACKING THE POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES FROM ASIA, INDIAN MARKETS OPENED STRONG, HOWEVER PROFIT BOOKING WAS SEEN BEFORE RBI POLICY MEETING. HOWEVER MARKET RECOVERED AND GAINED TO POSITIVE TERRITORY FROM THE CUES COMING FROM EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES THAT FRANCE & GERMANY WOULD STAND BY GREECE IN CASE OF DEFAULT. ALSO DOMESTICALLY THE ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS OF THE COMPANIES LIKE RELIANCE & HDFC BANK WERE ABOVE ESTIMATES WHILE SBI ADVANCE TAX FIGURE DISAPPOINTED. OVERALL THE FIGURES ARE BELOW EXPECTATIONS. NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 5075.70, UP BY 63.15 WHILE SENSEX CLOSED AT 16876.54, UP BY 166.94. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE CLOSED IN GREEN. MOREOVER AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED THE PETROL PRICE WAS HIKED BY THE OIL MARKETING COMPANIES BY Rs.3.14/Ltr ARGUMENTATION OF DEPRECIATING RUPEE CAUSING HIGHER IMPORT COST OF CRUDE OIL. ALSO THE FPO OF ONGC DEFERRED BY 15-30 DAYS.

GOING FORWARD THE RBI POLICY MEET SHALL BE THE FOCUS TODAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXPERTS IS FOR HIKE OF 25bps IN REPO-RATE. THIS MUCH HIKE IS PRICED IN THE MARKETS. NOW THERE COULD BE FOLLOWING OUTCOMES OF THE POLICY MEET AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET:

SITUATION 1. IF THERE IS 25bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Then the markets have already priced in the same and after a volatility, markets will catch the direction based on global cues. However, if the language of RBI remains hawkish and sounding for further rate hikes to contain the inflation, neglecting the growth, then markets could see profit booking. Nifty may be making high near 5180-5200 and low near 4980-5000.

SITUATION 2. IF THERE IS 50bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: Market shall not be able to digest this rate hike and it may tank. Nifty could break below 4900 in such case heading for 4700-4650.. The chances of this situation is less.

SITUATION 3. IF THERE IS NO HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND OTHERS(CRR & SLR) REMAIN UNCHANGED: This situation may bring a short term cheer in the market. Nifty will see huge short covering rally may be to 5350-5400, along with buying in Infra, Banking & Real Estate stocks. However there will be profit booking later-on.

There are equal chances that RBI may hike rates or pause as the growth concerns may also be hit. However if the RBI concerns to contain the inflation further using the rate hike tool, may certainly hit the growth of economy and affect the stock market severely. Any change in CRR or SLR might also affect the market accordingly. HENCE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF SITUATION 1 or SITUATION 3

NIFTY HAS TAKEN SUPPORT AROUND 4900. HENCE 4900 IS SHORT TERM BASE. YESTERDAY NIFTY HAS MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5075, AND IF THE RBI POLICY IS CONGENIAL TO MARKETS(SITUATION 1 OR SITUATION 3) THEN NIFTY MAY LIKELY TO TOUCH 5200 IN EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IN ANY OTHER SITUATION THE MARKET COULD FALL. ALL LONGS SHOULD HAVE STOP-LOSS OF 4900. BELOW WHICH NIFTY SHALL TEST 4700-4650.

STRATEGY FOR TODAY: THOSE HOLDING THE STRADDLE OF 5000(AS BEING SUGGESTED YESTERDAY), SHOULD WAIT TILL RBI COMES OUT WITH THE POLICY. AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.
IF THERE IS RALLY BOOK PROFIT IN THE CALLS TILL MID-NOON (1PM-1.30PM) AND HOLD PUTS TO BOOK PROFIT ON MONDAY.
IF THE MARKET TAKES THE POLICY NEGATIVELY THEN BOOK WHATEVER LOSS IS THERE IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR MONDAY.
(NOTE: MONDAY-TUESDAY LOOKS MORE BEARISH)

ASTROLOGICALLY: THOUGH THE PLANETARY SITUATION SHOW THE POOR COMBINATION AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE MARKET TODAY, WHICH MIGHT START AFFECTING THE MARKETS DURING THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER MONDAY, 19TH SEPTEMBER AND TUESDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER LOOKS EXTREMELY BEARISH, WHAT EVER BE THE OTHER FACTORS. HENCE WE SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE MARKET RISES, PUT HOLDERS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL. BOOK PROFITS IN THE CALLS AND HOLD THE PUTS FOR NEXT WEEK. IN NEXT WEEK 19TH, 20TH, 21ST LOOK WEAK AND FRIDAY 23RD LOOKS STRONG UP. HENCE HUGE VOLATILITY WILL BE SEEN IN THIS WEEK. IT IS FIRM BELIEVE THAT NIFTY MAY HIT THE LOWS SOONER OR LATER.

DON'T PANIC AND PLAY SAFE, BOTH BULLS AND BEARS WILL GET THE CHANCE IN THIS MONTH..........5200-4700 SHALL BE THE RANGE IN SEPTEMBER.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011

AFTER THREE DAYS OF WEAKNESS MARKETS WITNESSED A BOUNCE BACK AFTER A MUCH VOLATILITY AND WEAKNESS IN THE MORNING SESSION. NIFTY ENDED ABOVE 5000 MARK AT 5012.55, UP BY 71.60 POINTS. SENSEX CLOSED AT 16709.60, UP BY 242.16 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE. BOTH MID-CAP AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WERE UP BY A LITTLE MORE THAN QUARTER PERCENT.
INFLATION SURGED TO 9.78% IN AUGUST 2011 AGAINST 9.22% IN JULY 2011, ON THE BACK OF SOARING PRICES OF FOOD AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTS.

NOW THERE ARE TWO MAIN EVENTS AND CUES DOMESTICALLY WHICH HAS TO GUIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET MOVEMENT. CORPORATE ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS FROM TODAY AND RBI POLICY TOMORROW SHALL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. GLOBALLY DEVELOPMENTS IN GREECE ECONOMY SHALL ALSO BE SEEN.

THE BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKET SHALL BE 4900-5100, BREAK ON EITHER SIDE SHALL BRING FRESH 100-125 POINTS MOVE. MARKET SHALL BE RANGE BOUND BETWEEN THE ABOVE LIMITS AHEAD OF RBI MEET.

FOR LAST FEW DAYS NIFTY HAS WITNESSED HUGE VOLATILITY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS. NOW NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 4900. IF NIFTY BREACHES 4900, THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY MAY GO TO 4800 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, ON THE HIGHER SIDE A BREACH OF 5050 SHALL TAKE NIFTY TO 5170 AND 5230. A STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4900 IS MUST FOR ALL LONG POSITIONS.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4970 AND RESISTANCE AT 5055. IF 4970 IS BROKEN THEN 4940 & 4900 SHALL BE THE TARGET. HOWEVER IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5055, THEN THE LEVEL OF 5080-5120 SHALL BE THE NEXT TARGET.

STRATEGY FOR THE DAY:THERE ARE TWO STRATEGIES FOR TODAY & TOMORROW
STRATEGY 1: BUY CE5000 & CE5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5050 FOR THE TARGET OF 5170-5230.
BUY PE5000 & CE4900 IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4970 FOR THE TARGET OF 4940-4900.

STRATEGY 2: BUY 2 LOTS OF PE5000 & 1 LOT OF CE5000 FOR THE TARGET OF EITHER 5400 OR 4600. THIS STRATEGY IS BEST FOR 16TH SEPTEMBER EVENT OF RBI CREDIT POLICY MEET. ONE CAN BUY THE 5000 STRADDLE(i.e., BUYING BOTH CE & PE 5000 SIMULTANEOUSLY). THIS IS BEST WHEN THE OUTCOME OF EVENT COULD EQUALLY EFFECT THE MOVE ON THE EITHER SIDE. BUYING OF 2 LOTS OF PUTS( PE5000) SHALL BE THE BEST AS THE CHANCES OF DOWN SIDE RISK ARE MORE THAN THE UP MOVE.

MARKET VIEW FOR 14TH SEPTEMBER 2011

INDIAN STOCK MARKET OPENED STRONG ON CUES FROM ASIAN MARKETS HOWEVER ALL THE GAINS WERE GIVEN UP AND MARKET TURNED A BIT NEGATIVE WHEN NEGATIVE CUES STARTED COMING FROM EUROPE AND WEAK U.S FUTURES ON FEARS THAT GREEK GOVERNMENT MAY DEFAULT ON ITS DEBT AND FEARS OF POSSIBLE DOWNGRADES OF FRENCH BANKS.

NIFTY SHUT SHOP AT 4940.95, DOWN BY 5.85 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16467.44 DOWN BY 34.30 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS MIX AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDEX CLOSED ON FLAT NOTE.

INDIAN MARKET IS LIKELY TO REMAIN VOLATILE AS THERE ARE MANY DATA AND RBI's MID-QUARTER POLICY REVIEW ARE LINED UP. INFLATION DATA, WHICH HAS TO COME TODAY SHALL BE THE LAST MAJOR GUIDE FACTOR TO RBI FOR ITS POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT ON 16TH SEPTEMBER 2011. ALSO MARKET WILL KEENLY WATCH THE ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS OF THE CORPORATES WHICH ARE DUE FROM SEPTEMBER 15TH, 2011. ALSO GLOBAL CUES SHALL GUIDE THE MARKETS AS USUAL. HENCE THE COMING 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET.
THERE ARE EXPECTATIONS OF 25bps HIKE IN REPO-RATE AND/OR EASING OF SLR AND/OR CRR BY RBI ON 16TH SEPTEMBER. ANY THING MORE THAN THE EXPECTED HIKE SHALL RUIN THE MARKET SENTIMENT AND PLAY HAVOC ON INDICES. CONTRARY TO THIS THERE ARE SOME VOICES AND EXPECTATIONS OF INDUSTRY THAT RBI MAY PAUSE THIS TIME, SHALL DEFINITELY BRING THE CHEER IN THE MARKET. HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE MORE THAT RBI MAY HIKE THE RATE AT LEAST 25bps. INFLATION FIGURE SHALL GUIDE MUCH IN THIS RESPECT TODAY.

NIFTY IS GETTING STRONG SUPPORT NEAR 4900. IF NIFTY BREACHES 4900 ON THE DOWN SIDE, THE SHORT TERM TREND SHALL BECOME DOWN AND NIFTY MAY TEST 4800-4770 ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY MOVES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5055 THEN IT COULD MOVE TO 5170. OPTION DATA SHOW THAT NOW NIFTY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE ABOVE 5200 IN THE NEAR TERM. HENCE ALL LONG POSITIONS, IF ANY SHOULD BE KEPT ONLY WITH A STRICT STOP-LOSS(CLOSING BASIS) OF 4900. IF NIFTY BREACHES AND FALLS BELOW 4900 EXIT OF ALL LONG POSITIONS AND SIT ON CASH AS THE SHORT TERM TREND WOULD BECOME NEGATIVE.

FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4900 AND RESISTANCE AT 4985. BREAK BELOW 4900 MAY PULL NIFTY TO 4860 & 4830. IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 4985 THEN 5025 & 5055 WOULD BECOME THE TARGET.

STRATEGY FOR TODAY:
DON'T TRADE IN THE RANGE OF 4900-4985.
BUY CE5000 & CE5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 4985.
BUY PE4900 & PE4800 IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4900.

STOCKS/FUTURES/OPTIONS:
1. BATA FUTURE(668.10): BUY ON DIPS NEAR 660-650 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 640 FOR THE TARGET OF 690-720.
2. SBI FUTURE(1834.95): BUY ON DIPS NEAR 1830-1800 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 1770 FOR THE TARGET OF 1880-1920-1960-2000.
3. SESA GOA(228.30): BUY AT CMP KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 224.20 FOR THE TARGET OF 232-236+++

ASTROLOGICALLY: IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE PAST THAT MARKET PEAK ON 8TH/9TH SEPTEMBER COULD BE THE TOP FOR SEPTEMBER MONTH AND NOW IT SEEMS THAT NIFTY MAY NOT MOVE ABOVE 5170 IN NEAR TERM. TODAY MARKETS WILL TRADE IN A RANGE WITH NEGATIVE BIAS. SHORTING COULD BE DONE ON HIGHER LEVELS. 16TH COULD BE VERY VERY POOR FOR THE MARKET. HENCE NO HUGE BUYING AND STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4900 FOR ALL LONGS SUGGESTED. BUY PE 5000(SEPT) & PE5000(OCT) FOR HUGE HUGE GAINS IN OCT. TARGETS COULD NOT BE EXPRESSED.