IN LAST WEEK AFTER SPECIAL TRADING SESSION INDICES LOST AROUND 1%-1.5% DUE TO FALL IN THE PRICES OF RELIANCE, LT, BHARTI, ETC ALONG WITH THE VOLATILE GLOBAL CUES. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE TRIGGER AND NEGATIVE OUTLOOK GIVEN TO INDIA BY S&P, NO POSITIVE STATEMENT BY GOVERNMENT ON REFORMS AND UNCERTAINTY LOOMING OVER 'GAAR' AND TAXATION ON FIIs THERE WAS CHAOS AND MURKY SENTIMENT AMONG FIIs, WHO HAVE CONTINUOUSLY SOLD (ON NET BASIS) IN CASH MARKET. HOWEVER DIIs WERE NET BUYERS IN THE ENTIRE WEEK IS SIGN OF RELIEF. GLOBALLY FOMC RAISED U.S GDP GROWTH PROJECTION WHILE LOWERING THE ESTIMATES FOR UNEMPLOYMENT MADE U.S INDICES CLOSED HIGHER, BOJ EXPANDED IT MONETARY STIMULUS TO BOOST THE WORLD'S THIRD LARGEST ECONOMY AND SOUTH KOREA'S ECONOMY GREW FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN Q1CY12. ON SATURDAY SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED AT 17134.25 & 5190.60
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON NUMBERS FROM AUTO AND CEMENT COMPANIES IN THE MAY FIRST WEEK AND RESULTS MAY KEEP ON AFFECTING THE PRICES OF STOCK SPECIFICS.
THERE IS LOT OF WORRY AMONG RETAIL AS WELL AS BIG INVESTORS AND INSTITUTIONS TOO, THAT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM FUTURE SPECIALLY IF UPA GOVERNMENT FAILS COMPLETELY ON REFORM PROCESS & POLICY FRONT. THE RUN EXPECTED AFTER THE FIRST RATE CUT BY RBI ALSO FAILED TO TRIGGER THE STRONG UP MOVE AND IF THE MONSOON FAILS TO DELIVER GOOD RAIN AND DIESEL PRICES IF UNCONTROLLED COULD LEAD TO FAILURE IN FALL OF EXPECTED INFLATION RATE, WILL BE A CHAOTIC SITUATION, ETC ETC ARE MANY HAUNTING QUESTIONS IN EVERY BODY MIND.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 13 TIMES THE FY13 EARNINGS OF NIFTY(Actually the consolidated EPS of all Stocks in Nifty is Nifty EPS or Nifty Earnings). HENCE ON THIS BASIS ANY INDEX TRADING AT AROUND 13 TIMES TO ONE YEAR FORWARD EARNINGS IS CONSIDERED TO BE FAIR & JUSTIFIED VALUATION(5100-5300). HENCE THIS WILL KEEP THE INDEX FROM FALLING VERY STEEPLY BELOW 5100 ANY DIP BELOW 5100 WILL BE A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE SELECT STOCKS.
WHEN I SAY SELECT STOCKS IT MEANS STOCKS WHICH HAVE HUGE POTENTIALS TO OUT PERFORM THE MARKET IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM. IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEANS FRONT LINE OR STOCKS IN LIME LIGHT.
I ALWAYS ATTEMPT TO PUT BEFORE YOU WHAT EVER I COULD COLLECT FROM VARIOUS SOURCES, PROCESS IT, DISCUSS IT AND ANALYSE IT ON VARIOUS ANGLES BEFORE IT COMES IN THE NEWS AND MARKET PRICES-IN THAT INFORMATION OR NEWS.
RECENTLY I HAVE GIVEN SEVERAL DE-LISTING THEMES LIKE ALFA LAVAL, THOMAS COOK, FKONCO, KENNA METAL, SAINT GOBAIN(SEKUSAI), ETC AND MANY OF YOU HAVE MADE HUGE MONEY IN THOSE STOCKS. ALSO I GIVE SEVERA STOCKS OF OTHER THEMES OF LONG AS WELL AS SHORT TERM. SOME TRADING STOCKS HAVE SOME OR THE OTHER NEWS, WHICH GIVES RETURN IN SHORT TERM. HOWEVER I NEVER RECOMMEND OR SUGGEST ANY MEMBER, READER OR FOLLOWER OF THIS BLOG FOR INTRA-DAY OR SPECULATIVE MOVES. ALL MY RECOMMENDATIONS REQUIRE PROPER DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE AND YOUR OWN INVEST-ABLE MONEY AND NOT THE BORROWED FUNDS.
CONCLUDING, FUNDAMENTALLY INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY PRICED AND I DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE AND EVEN IF SLIPS BELOW 5100 THAT WILL BE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE MORE AND MORE STOCKS. GOING FORWARD MARKETS WILL BE GUIDED BY DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES AND THERE WILL BE GRADUAL UPSIDE AND NIFTY WILL BREAK THE TIGHT RANGE OF 5130-5350 ON THE HIGHER SIDE. HENCE I SUGGEST TO BUY THE SELECT STOCKS AT CURRENT LEVELS. INVEST AT LEAST 35%-40% IF YOU HAVE ANY FEAR AND LACK CONVICTION IN THE MARKET AT THIS TIME.
DAILY CHART OF THE NIFTY SUGGEST THAT IT HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE NARROW RANGE OF 5130-5350 SINCE LAST TWO WEEKS. I EXPECT THIS RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS AND FINALLY BREAK. (My expectation is higher side). IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5100 THEN 5050 & 4940 WILL BE SEEN, WHERE ONE CAN FULLY INVEST (I wish I could be lucky to get these levels as I understand that it will be below fair valuation and soon it will bounce back). HOWEVER ON THE HIGHER SIDE BREACH OF 5350 WILL LEAD TO SHARP SHORT COVERING AND VALUE BUYING AND NIFTY MAY REACH 5510 & 5630 ON VERY SHORT TERM.
HENCE I SUGGEST BUYING WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5100 FOR ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL AND KEEP INVESTING.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE(NTR) FOR THE NIFTY IS 5180-5290.
IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5180 THEN BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE5200 & PE5100) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5290 FOR THE TARGET OF 5130 & 5100.
IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5290 THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS(CE5300 & CE5400) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5180 FOR THE TARGET OF 5350 & 5430.
FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR BUYING IN SHORT TERM DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS) AND FUTURES AS POSITIONAL(5-14 DAYS):
1. GODREJ IND FUTURE(270.80): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 280-295-310++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 260.
2. DR REDDY'S FUTURE(1801.85): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 1840-1860-1880++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 1770
3. ATUL LIMITED(199.95): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 230-250++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.
4. DCM LIMITED (103.00): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 130-140++ . STOP-LOSS OF 85 NEEDED(OPERATOR DRIVEN STOCK).
5. COROMANDEL INT (262.45): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 300-310+++ . NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.
6. PIRAMAL GLASS(109.60): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 120-130+++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED
I SUGGEST HOLD ON ALL PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED STOCKS LIKE:
FKONCO, KENNAMEATL, THOMAS, KSL, SKUMAR, MC-DOWELL, CERA SANITARY, JAMNA AUTO, GRAPHITE, RALLIS AND MANY OTHERS.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON NUMBERS FROM AUTO AND CEMENT COMPANIES IN THE MAY FIRST WEEK AND RESULTS MAY KEEP ON AFFECTING THE PRICES OF STOCK SPECIFICS.
THERE IS LOT OF WORRY AMONG RETAIL AS WELL AS BIG INVESTORS AND INSTITUTIONS TOO, THAT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM FUTURE SPECIALLY IF UPA GOVERNMENT FAILS COMPLETELY ON REFORM PROCESS & POLICY FRONT. THE RUN EXPECTED AFTER THE FIRST RATE CUT BY RBI ALSO FAILED TO TRIGGER THE STRONG UP MOVE AND IF THE MONSOON FAILS TO DELIVER GOOD RAIN AND DIESEL PRICES IF UNCONTROLLED COULD LEAD TO FAILURE IN FALL OF EXPECTED INFLATION RATE, WILL BE A CHAOTIC SITUATION, ETC ETC ARE MANY HAUNTING QUESTIONS IN EVERY BODY MIND.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 13 TIMES THE FY13 EARNINGS OF NIFTY(Actually the consolidated EPS of all Stocks in Nifty is Nifty EPS or Nifty Earnings). HENCE ON THIS BASIS ANY INDEX TRADING AT AROUND 13 TIMES TO ONE YEAR FORWARD EARNINGS IS CONSIDERED TO BE FAIR & JUSTIFIED VALUATION(5100-5300). HENCE THIS WILL KEEP THE INDEX FROM FALLING VERY STEEPLY BELOW 5100 ANY DIP BELOW 5100 WILL BE A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE SELECT STOCKS.
WHEN I SAY SELECT STOCKS IT MEANS STOCKS WHICH HAVE HUGE POTENTIALS TO OUT PERFORM THE MARKET IN MEDIUM TO LONG TERM. IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEANS FRONT LINE OR STOCKS IN LIME LIGHT.
I ALWAYS ATTEMPT TO PUT BEFORE YOU WHAT EVER I COULD COLLECT FROM VARIOUS SOURCES, PROCESS IT, DISCUSS IT AND ANALYSE IT ON VARIOUS ANGLES BEFORE IT COMES IN THE NEWS AND MARKET PRICES-IN THAT INFORMATION OR NEWS.
RECENTLY I HAVE GIVEN SEVERAL DE-LISTING THEMES LIKE ALFA LAVAL, THOMAS COOK, FKONCO, KENNA METAL, SAINT GOBAIN(SEKUSAI), ETC AND MANY OF YOU HAVE MADE HUGE MONEY IN THOSE STOCKS. ALSO I GIVE SEVERA STOCKS OF OTHER THEMES OF LONG AS WELL AS SHORT TERM. SOME TRADING STOCKS HAVE SOME OR THE OTHER NEWS, WHICH GIVES RETURN IN SHORT TERM. HOWEVER I NEVER RECOMMEND OR SUGGEST ANY MEMBER, READER OR FOLLOWER OF THIS BLOG FOR INTRA-DAY OR SPECULATIVE MOVES. ALL MY RECOMMENDATIONS REQUIRE PROPER DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE AND YOUR OWN INVEST-ABLE MONEY AND NOT THE BORROWED FUNDS.
CONCLUDING, FUNDAMENTALLY INDIAN MARKETS ARE FAIRLY PRICED AND I DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE AND EVEN IF SLIPS BELOW 5100 THAT WILL BE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE MORE AND MORE STOCKS. GOING FORWARD MARKETS WILL BE GUIDED BY DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL CUES AND THERE WILL BE GRADUAL UPSIDE AND NIFTY WILL BREAK THE TIGHT RANGE OF 5130-5350 ON THE HIGHER SIDE. HENCE I SUGGEST TO BUY THE SELECT STOCKS AT CURRENT LEVELS. INVEST AT LEAST 35%-40% IF YOU HAVE ANY FEAR AND LACK CONVICTION IN THE MARKET AT THIS TIME.
DAILY CHART OF THE NIFTY SUGGEST THAT IT HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE NARROW RANGE OF 5130-5350 SINCE LAST TWO WEEKS. I EXPECT THIS RANGE TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS AND FINALLY BREAK. (My expectation is higher side). IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5100 THEN 5050 & 4940 WILL BE SEEN, WHERE ONE CAN FULLY INVEST (I wish I could be lucky to get these levels as I understand that it will be below fair valuation and soon it will bounce back). HOWEVER ON THE HIGHER SIDE BREACH OF 5350 WILL LEAD TO SHARP SHORT COVERING AND VALUE BUYING AND NIFTY MAY REACH 5510 & 5630 ON VERY SHORT TERM.
HENCE I SUGGEST BUYING WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5100 FOR ALL TRADERS & INVESTORS SHOULD NOT WORRY AT ALL AND KEEP INVESTING.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE(NTR) FOR THE NIFTY IS 5180-5290.
IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5180 THEN BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE5200 & PE5100) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5290 FOR THE TARGET OF 5130 & 5100.
IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5290 THEN BUY NIFTY CALLS(CE5300 & CE5400) WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 5180 FOR THE TARGET OF 5350 & 5430.
FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR BUYING IN SHORT TERM DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS) AND FUTURES AS POSITIONAL(5-14 DAYS):
1. GODREJ IND FUTURE(270.80): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 280-295-310++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 260.
2. DR REDDY'S FUTURE(1801.85): BUY IN POSITIONAL TRADE FOR THE TARGET OF 1840-1860-1880++++. KEEP STOP-LOSS OF 1770
3. ATUL LIMITED(199.95): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 230-250++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.
4. DCM LIMITED (103.00): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 130-140++ . STOP-LOSS OF 85 NEEDED(OPERATOR DRIVEN STOCK).
5. COROMANDEL INT (262.45): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 300-310+++ . NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED.
6. PIRAMAL GLASS(109.60): BUY IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 120-130+++. NO STOP-LOSS NEEDED
I SUGGEST HOLD ON ALL PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED STOCKS LIKE:
FKONCO, KENNAMEATL, THOMAS, KSL, SKUMAR, MC-DOWELL, CERA SANITARY, JAMNA AUTO, GRAPHITE, RALLIS AND MANY OTHERS.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.