AFTER MUCH DEBATE ON 'GAAR', PARTICIPATORY NOTES, TAXATION AND CLARIFICATION COMING IN ON THESE, THE CONFUSION CREATED IN MEDIA CONTINUES. AMID ALL THESE MARKET PRICED IN ALL THE NEGATIVES AND MARCHES AHEAD AFTER THE MARCH SETTLEMENT. SENSEX & NIFTY CLOSED WITH WEEKLY GAINS OF AROUND 2% AT 17404.20 & 5295.55.
FUNDAMENTALLY NOTHING AS SUCH HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN FAVOR OF ECONOMY AND CORPORATE WORLD. COALITION POLITICS IS HURTING THE REFORM PROCESS(See Railway Budget, where the fare hike was taken back), NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS GIVEN IN THE BUDGET AS PER EXPECTATIONS, CRUDE PRICES ARE GOING UP, HIKE IN ENERGY PRICES & EXCISE DUTY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED LEVELS, BOND YIELDS ARE AT UNREASONABLY HIGHER LEVELS, RUPEE WEAKENING AGAINST DOLLAR, GOVERNMENT BORROWINGS IS INCREASING AT THE ALARMING RATE, AND MANY OTHER ODDS WORKING AGAINST THE CAPITAL & COMMODITY MARKETS....
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS LEADING THE MARKET TO SUSTAIN THESE LEVELS AROUND 16% ABOVE THE LOWS MADE IN DEC 2011(NIFTY 4531.25 & SENSEX 15190.74) & SOME FRONT LINE STOCKS HAVE GONE UP BY AROUND 30%, EVEN IF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED BY THEN????
AND TO ME AND OTHER ANALYSTS, THE ONLY FACTOR WHICH HAS DRIVEN THE MARKET IS GLOBAL LIQUIDITY. FIIs HAVE APPROXIMATELY BOUGHT INDIAN EQUITIES WORTH $9.06 BILLION($4.37 BILLION IN 2010, WHEN FIIs HAVE PUMPED RECORD $29.32 BILLION & SENSEX ROSE AROUND 17%) NET OF SALES FROM JANUARY 2012 TILL MARCH END, THE HIGHEST IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF ANY CALENDER YEAR SINCE JANUARY 1993, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT HAS FIRST OPENED THE DOORS FOR FIIs IN INDIA.
ON TUESDAY, 27TH MARCH FINANCE MINISTRY CLARIFIED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT TARGET THE SO CALLED P-NOTES IN A BLANKET MANNER UNDER THE NEWLY PROPOSED RULES TARGETING TAX AVOIDANCE, ONLY PNs THAT FAIL CERTAIN REGULATORY TESTS MAY BE SUBJECT TO TAXATION. (Learn: Proxy Notes or P-Notes are instruments which allow foreign investors to invest indirectly in Indian markets, routing the investment through countries that have favorable tax regimes such as Mauritious, which has tax treaty with India)
ON FRIDAY, 30TH MARCH, FINANCE MINISTER SAID THAT FINANCE MINISTRY WILL COME OUT WITH SEPRATE GUIDE LINES GOVERNING GENERAL ANTI-AVOIDANCE RULES (GAAR) THAT WILL HAVE CLEAR PROVISIONS ON INVESTMENT TO BE TAXED AND WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE FROM 1ST APRIL 2012. CLEARLY NOTE- 'GAAR' HELPS TAX AUTHORITIES TO DEAL WITH COMMERCIAL TRANSACTIONS THAT ARE STRUCTURED ESSENTIALLY TO CIRCUMVENT TAX LAWS AND AVOID PAYING TAX.
TO THIS- MARKET ANALYSTS SAID THAT ANY FORM OF TAX ON EQUITY INVESTMENTS BY FIIs IN INDIA WILL HURT THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM.
I TOO BELIEVE THAT THEIR CONCERN IS VALID AND NEEDS CLARITY URGENTLY. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL BE ALL GUIDELINES ISSUED???? AS MARKET DOESN'T LIKE UNCERTAINTY OVER JUSTIFIED TIME.
COMING BACK TO THE LIQUIDITY, INDIA HAS SEEN RECORD FIIs FLOW SO FAR THIS YEAR FOLLOWING TWO TRANCHE OF LIQUIDITY INJECTION WOTH 1 TRILLION Euros BY EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK(ECB) VIA ITS LONG TERM REFINANCING OPERATIONS (LTRO) PROGRAMME. INDIA HAS SEEN STRONG ETF INFLOWS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR BECAUSE OF ATTRACTIVELY VALUED STOCKS( DECMEBER 2011-JANUARY 2012), A WEAKER RUPEE AND THE FLUSH OF LIQUIDITY GLOBALLY. HENCE ETF FUND FLOWS ARE INFLUENCING MARKET MOVEMENTS.
NOW IF THE SENTIMENT IN INDIA IS GOOD THERE WILL BE HIGHER INFLOWS IN THE SIMILAR MANNER, AND IF THE SENTIMENTS BECOME MURKY ON ISSUES LIKE 'GAAR', P-NOTES, WEAKENING RUPEE MAY THREATEN THE FIIs SENTIMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY REVERSE THE ETF FLOW IN INDIA IN THE SHORT TERM. NOTE: THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM PHENOMENON AND NOT THE PERMANENT LONG TERM ISSUE.
THE QUESTIONS WHICH ARE BOGGLING EVERY ONE'S MIND ARE:
" Why was GAAR being taken up in Budget, at such a time when we are expected to get the deluge of FIIs fund Flows??"
" Why Finance Ministry is not coming out with crystal clear guide lines??
"Is the makers of the policy testing the impact and outcomes with some hidden agenda??"
"Who is going to benefited if the sentiments deteriorates and markets falls further?"
"Will the guidelines be clarified soon or will be lingered more?"
NO BODY IS THERE TO HONESTLY SPEAK ON THESE..............
SECOND IMPORTANT POINT WHICH IS WORTH CONSIDERING IS " When is FED going to start QE3?"
ANALYSTS AROUND THE WORLD EXPECT THE QE3(AT LEAST $500-$750 BILLION) TO START AS EARLY AS IN APRIL-MAY 2012, BUT NOT LATER THAN JUNE 2012.(Note: In US, FOMC Minutes on April 3, 2012 are unlikely to unveil any major discussion about QE3 or extending Operation Twist rather statement will be searched for any clues regarding the prospects of QE3 . So don't get excited on this expectation). HOWEVER A BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS THIS WHERE IT WILL LEAD THE INVESTMENT? EQUITY OR COMMODITY?? AS PER THE LATEST COMMENT FROM THE FED IS POSITIVE TOWARDS PRECIOUS METALS- GOLD & SILVER. IF THE FORMER WILL BE THE FOCUS, WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT RALLY IN INDIAN EQUITY MARKET IN APRIL-MAY (MAY BE 5900+++) HOWEVER IF THE LATER WILL BE THE FOCUS THEN INDIA MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE RISE IN EQUITY INDEXES, HOWEVER COMMODITY PLAYERS MAY FIND SILVER AROUND 1Lac/kg AND GOLD AROUND 42k/10 grams. .......... ALSO THERE MAY BE RISE IN CRUDE OIL WHICH MAY SPOIL THE PARTY IN INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET.
AS PER MY ANALYSIS AND EXPECTATION A HIGHER ALLOCATION TO INDIAN EQUITIES, IF THERE IS A RATE CUT BY RBI ON ITS CREDIT POLICY REVIEW ON APRIL 17TH, OR AN INDICATION TO START CUTTING IN JUNE 1ST WEEK POLICY MEET AND THE LAST QUARTER RESULTS AND GUIDELINES BY THE INDIA INC.
HENCE TO SUM UP ALL EYES ARE ON INFLATION RATE, Q4 RESULTS, GDP GROWTH, RBI'S ACTION, AND MONSOON ESTIMATES... IN APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2012.
NIFTY IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT 13xFY13 EARNINGS, WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE, IF THE NIFTY HOVERS AROUND 5000-4950 MARK, DUE TO ANY DESCRIBED REASONS, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHEAP AND WORTH BUYING!!!!!!
THIS CONCLUDES MY REASONING FOR MARKET NOT MOVING BELOW 4950 MARK HENCE FORTH. HENCE ONE GETS SUCH LEVELS, WHICH I EVEN EXPECT COULD BE SEEN, VERY SOON IN APRIL SERIES IT SELF, WE SHOULD START BUYING THE SELECT STOCKS IN MEDIUM TOO LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.
NOTE THAT YOU MAY NEVER GET BOTTOM TO BUY AND TOP TO SELL, HENCE COME OUT OF FEAR AND GREED AND SEE THE MARKET WITH UNBIASED AND UNPREJUDICED VISION, YOU WILL SEE THE MASSIVE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE HUGE WEALTH AND NOT JUST PETTY 4-5% PROFIT ON SHORT TERM TRADING, INTRA-DAY SPECULATION AND DERIVATIVES TECHNICAL TIPS.
FORGET ALL TECHNICAL TIPS & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, APPLY RATIONAL INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES AND ACCUMULATE WEALTH FOR YOUR BRIGHT FUTURE.
COMING BACK TO CLOSER ANALYSIS FOR APRIL SERIES, NIFTY SHOWS THAT ITS GETTING STRONG SUPPORT AT 5150 LEVEL, HENCE ITS A CRUCIAL BASE OF NIFTY. ON LAST DAY OF PREVIOUS WEEK NIFTY BOUNCED BACK WITH STRONG VOLUMES, AND THIS COULD LEAD NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5400 THEN WE WILL SURELY SEE 5520 & 5650. ON THE OTHER SIDE IF ON ANY POOR SENTIMENTAL FACTOR, NIFTY BREACHES THE BASE OF 5150, THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE 5050-4950 ALSO.
FOR APRIL SERIES I EXPECT BOTH 4950 & 5650. BUT WHEN AND HOW???
THIS COULD BE FOUND USING ASTROLOGICAL PRINCIPLES, WHICH IS ANALYSED AT THE END, HOWEVER WE SHALL FOCUS ON NIFTY OPTIONS STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK AND SOME SELECT STOCKS WHICH MIGHT GIVE GOOD RETURN, IF MARKET SUPPORTS.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5270-5400. DON'T BE SURPRISED ON THIS WIDE GAP. MOVEMENT IN THIS ZONE WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE AND INDECISIVE. TRADING IN THIS ZONE WILL SURELY RESULT IN EITHER BULL OR BEAR TRAP AND MOUNTING LOSSES. HENCE
BUY CE5400 & CE5500 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5400, KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 5270 FOR THE TARGET OF 5520 & 5650
BUY PE5300 & PE5200 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5270, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5400, FOR THE TARGET OF 5150-5050-4950
FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT THIS WEEK FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS IN DELIVERY. BUY ONLY IF YOU HAVE YOUR OWN MONEY AND STRONG HEART TO HOLD. DON'T EXPECT A WIND FALL FORTUNE EVERY TIME ON EVERY STOCK, WHICH I MENTION:
1. TATA STEEL(470.40): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 500-535+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)
2. HIND UNILEVER(409.90): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-450+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET).
3. ORACLE FINANCIAL(2620.20): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 2800-3000+++ ONE COULD SEE DE-LISTING NEWS VERY SOON. JUST BUY IF YOU HAVE MONEY.
4. ARVIND (82.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 95-100+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)
5. MANGALORE CHEMICALS(40.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 65+++. ANY POSITIVE NEWS ON STAKE SALE BY UNITED GROUP/VIJAY MALLYA WILL MAKE THIS COMPANY SHOOT TO 65+++. BUY IN LOW QUANTITY.
6. TTK HEALTH(390.85): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-470+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD.
7. VIVIMED LAB(404.00): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 460-480+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD.
ASTROLOGICALLY: MERCURY GETTING DIRECT ON 4TH APRIL AND MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL ARE THE TWO MAJOR ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS. I EXPECT A FINAL DECEPTIVE MOVE BY MARKET, FULL OF VOLATILITY. MARKET MAY BE BULLISH IN IMMEDIATE TERM TILL NEXT FEW TRADING SESSIONS AS EFFECT OF MERCURY HOWEVER MOVEMENT OF IT IN VEDH CHARTS DEVOID MERCURY OF ITS STRENGTH FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, FROM APRIL 2ND WEEK, 7TH-14TH APRIL WHICH MAY LEAD A SUDDEN FALL, THEN MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL, WILL GIVE A UNI-DIRECTIONAL MOVE, UNLIKE MERCURY WHICH CONFUSED ALL FROM 12TH MARCH TILL TODAY. HENCE MARKET MAY BE BULLISH TILL APRIL 7TH ( SAY NIFTY AROUND 5400) THEN A BREAK DOWN BETWEEN 7TH -15TH APRIL (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5000 AND THEN A SHARP RISE SAY FROM 15TH APRIL TO 30TH APRIL (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5650).
THIS PATTERN IS JUST A SIMPLEST APPROACH TO THE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, IF THERE IS NO FALL TILL APRIL 15TH THEN THERE WILL BE A FALL AFTER MARS GETTING DIRECT. HENCE ANALYSE THE MARKET AND DON'T JUST PLAY BLINDLY....
THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL APPROACH AND PREDICTIONS, PLEASE DON'T RELY ON THIS. APPLY YOUR OWN WISDOM, HAVE PATIENCE, AVOID SPECULATION AND DAY DREAMING, DON'T BE BIASED AND FOLLOW THE INVESTMENT AND TRADING PRINCIPLES. ASTROLOGY IS JUST A GUIDANCE OR IDEA IN DARKNESS AND NOT THE INSTRUMENT FOR MAKING FAST BUCK.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING TO ALL.
IN CASE OF ANY CLARIFICATION AND SUGGESTION PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME:
MOBILE: 9335976722
YAHOO ID : vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in
FACE BOOK: 'Astrologer Vikas Srivastava'
NOTE: I SHALL NOT BE AVAILABLE ON MESSENGER OR PHONE CALL ON MONDAY, 2ND APRIL. PLEASE SMS ONLY.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
FUNDAMENTALLY NOTHING AS SUCH HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN FAVOR OF ECONOMY AND CORPORATE WORLD. COALITION POLITICS IS HURTING THE REFORM PROCESS(See Railway Budget, where the fare hike was taken back), NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS GIVEN IN THE BUDGET AS PER EXPECTATIONS, CRUDE PRICES ARE GOING UP, HIKE IN ENERGY PRICES & EXCISE DUTY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED LEVELS, BOND YIELDS ARE AT UNREASONABLY HIGHER LEVELS, RUPEE WEAKENING AGAINST DOLLAR, GOVERNMENT BORROWINGS IS INCREASING AT THE ALARMING RATE, AND MANY OTHER ODDS WORKING AGAINST THE CAPITAL & COMMODITY MARKETS....
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS LEADING THE MARKET TO SUSTAIN THESE LEVELS AROUND 16% ABOVE THE LOWS MADE IN DEC 2011(NIFTY 4531.25 & SENSEX 15190.74) & SOME FRONT LINE STOCKS HAVE GONE UP BY AROUND 30%, EVEN IF THE MACRO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED BY THEN????
AND TO ME AND OTHER ANALYSTS, THE ONLY FACTOR WHICH HAS DRIVEN THE MARKET IS GLOBAL LIQUIDITY. FIIs HAVE APPROXIMATELY BOUGHT INDIAN EQUITIES WORTH $9.06 BILLION($4.37 BILLION IN 2010, WHEN FIIs HAVE PUMPED RECORD $29.32 BILLION & SENSEX ROSE AROUND 17%) NET OF SALES FROM JANUARY 2012 TILL MARCH END, THE HIGHEST IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF ANY CALENDER YEAR SINCE JANUARY 1993, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT HAS FIRST OPENED THE DOORS FOR FIIs IN INDIA.
ON TUESDAY, 27TH MARCH FINANCE MINISTRY CLARIFIED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT TARGET THE SO CALLED P-NOTES IN A BLANKET MANNER UNDER THE NEWLY PROPOSED RULES TARGETING TAX AVOIDANCE, ONLY PNs THAT FAIL CERTAIN REGULATORY TESTS MAY BE SUBJECT TO TAXATION. (Learn: Proxy Notes or P-Notes are instruments which allow foreign investors to invest indirectly in Indian markets, routing the investment through countries that have favorable tax regimes such as Mauritious, which has tax treaty with India)
ON FRIDAY, 30TH MARCH, FINANCE MINISTER SAID THAT FINANCE MINISTRY WILL COME OUT WITH SEPRATE GUIDE LINES GOVERNING GENERAL ANTI-AVOIDANCE RULES (GAAR) THAT WILL HAVE CLEAR PROVISIONS ON INVESTMENT TO BE TAXED AND WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE FROM 1ST APRIL 2012. CLEARLY NOTE- 'GAAR' HELPS TAX AUTHORITIES TO DEAL WITH COMMERCIAL TRANSACTIONS THAT ARE STRUCTURED ESSENTIALLY TO CIRCUMVENT TAX LAWS AND AVOID PAYING TAX.
TO THIS- MARKET ANALYSTS SAID THAT ANY FORM OF TAX ON EQUITY INVESTMENTS BY FIIs IN INDIA WILL HURT THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM.
I TOO BELIEVE THAT THEIR CONCERN IS VALID AND NEEDS CLARITY URGENTLY. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL BE ALL GUIDELINES ISSUED???? AS MARKET DOESN'T LIKE UNCERTAINTY OVER JUSTIFIED TIME.
COMING BACK TO THE LIQUIDITY, INDIA HAS SEEN RECORD FIIs FLOW SO FAR THIS YEAR FOLLOWING TWO TRANCHE OF LIQUIDITY INJECTION WOTH 1 TRILLION Euros BY EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK(ECB) VIA ITS LONG TERM REFINANCING OPERATIONS (LTRO) PROGRAMME. INDIA HAS SEEN STRONG ETF INFLOWS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR BECAUSE OF ATTRACTIVELY VALUED STOCKS( DECMEBER 2011-JANUARY 2012), A WEAKER RUPEE AND THE FLUSH OF LIQUIDITY GLOBALLY. HENCE ETF FUND FLOWS ARE INFLUENCING MARKET MOVEMENTS.
NOW IF THE SENTIMENT IN INDIA IS GOOD THERE WILL BE HIGHER INFLOWS IN THE SIMILAR MANNER, AND IF THE SENTIMENTS BECOME MURKY ON ISSUES LIKE 'GAAR', P-NOTES, WEAKENING RUPEE MAY THREATEN THE FIIs SENTIMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY REVERSE THE ETF FLOW IN INDIA IN THE SHORT TERM. NOTE: THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM PHENOMENON AND NOT THE PERMANENT LONG TERM ISSUE.
THE QUESTIONS WHICH ARE BOGGLING EVERY ONE'S MIND ARE:
" Why was GAAR being taken up in Budget, at such a time when we are expected to get the deluge of FIIs fund Flows??"
" Why Finance Ministry is not coming out with crystal clear guide lines??
"Is the makers of the policy testing the impact and outcomes with some hidden agenda??"
"Who is going to benefited if the sentiments deteriorates and markets falls further?"
"Will the guidelines be clarified soon or will be lingered more?"
NO BODY IS THERE TO HONESTLY SPEAK ON THESE..............
SECOND IMPORTANT POINT WHICH IS WORTH CONSIDERING IS " When is FED going to start QE3?"
ANALYSTS AROUND THE WORLD EXPECT THE QE3(AT LEAST $500-$750 BILLION) TO START AS EARLY AS IN APRIL-MAY 2012, BUT NOT LATER THAN JUNE 2012.(Note: In US, FOMC Minutes on April 3, 2012 are unlikely to unveil any major discussion about QE3 or extending Operation Twist rather statement will be searched for any clues regarding the prospects of QE3 . So don't get excited on this expectation). HOWEVER A BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS THIS WHERE IT WILL LEAD THE INVESTMENT? EQUITY OR COMMODITY?? AS PER THE LATEST COMMENT FROM THE FED IS POSITIVE TOWARDS PRECIOUS METALS- GOLD & SILVER. IF THE FORMER WILL BE THE FOCUS, WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT RALLY IN INDIAN EQUITY MARKET IN APRIL-MAY (MAY BE 5900+++) HOWEVER IF THE LATER WILL BE THE FOCUS THEN INDIA MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE RISE IN EQUITY INDEXES, HOWEVER COMMODITY PLAYERS MAY FIND SILVER AROUND 1Lac/kg AND GOLD AROUND 42k/10 grams. .......... ALSO THERE MAY BE RISE IN CRUDE OIL WHICH MAY SPOIL THE PARTY IN INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET.
AS PER MY ANALYSIS AND EXPECTATION A HIGHER ALLOCATION TO INDIAN EQUITIES, IF THERE IS A RATE CUT BY RBI ON ITS CREDIT POLICY REVIEW ON APRIL 17TH, OR AN INDICATION TO START CUTTING IN JUNE 1ST WEEK POLICY MEET AND THE LAST QUARTER RESULTS AND GUIDELINES BY THE INDIA INC.
HENCE TO SUM UP ALL EYES ARE ON INFLATION RATE, Q4 RESULTS, GDP GROWTH, RBI'S ACTION, AND MONSOON ESTIMATES... IN APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2012.
NIFTY IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT 13xFY13 EARNINGS, WHICH IS INEXPENSIVE, IF THE NIFTY HOVERS AROUND 5000-4950 MARK, DUE TO ANY DESCRIBED REASONS, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CHEAP AND WORTH BUYING!!!!!!
THIS CONCLUDES MY REASONING FOR MARKET NOT MOVING BELOW 4950 MARK HENCE FORTH. HENCE ONE GETS SUCH LEVELS, WHICH I EVEN EXPECT COULD BE SEEN, VERY SOON IN APRIL SERIES IT SELF, WE SHOULD START BUYING THE SELECT STOCKS IN MEDIUM TOO LONG TERM PORTFOLIO.
NOTE THAT YOU MAY NEVER GET BOTTOM TO BUY AND TOP TO SELL, HENCE COME OUT OF FEAR AND GREED AND SEE THE MARKET WITH UNBIASED AND UNPREJUDICED VISION, YOU WILL SEE THE MASSIVE OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE HUGE WEALTH AND NOT JUST PETTY 4-5% PROFIT ON SHORT TERM TRADING, INTRA-DAY SPECULATION AND DERIVATIVES TECHNICAL TIPS.
FORGET ALL TECHNICAL TIPS & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, APPLY RATIONAL INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES AND ACCUMULATE WEALTH FOR YOUR BRIGHT FUTURE.
COMING BACK TO CLOSER ANALYSIS FOR APRIL SERIES, NIFTY SHOWS THAT ITS GETTING STRONG SUPPORT AT 5150 LEVEL, HENCE ITS A CRUCIAL BASE OF NIFTY. ON LAST DAY OF PREVIOUS WEEK NIFTY BOUNCED BACK WITH STRONG VOLUMES, AND THIS COULD LEAD NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS. IF NIFTY MANAGES TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5400 THEN WE WILL SURELY SEE 5520 & 5650. ON THE OTHER SIDE IF ON ANY POOR SENTIMENTAL FACTOR, NIFTY BREACHES THE BASE OF 5150, THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE 5050-4950 ALSO.
FOR APRIL SERIES I EXPECT BOTH 4950 & 5650. BUT WHEN AND HOW???
THIS COULD BE FOUND USING ASTROLOGICAL PRINCIPLES, WHICH IS ANALYSED AT THE END, HOWEVER WE SHALL FOCUS ON NIFTY OPTIONS STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK AND SOME SELECT STOCKS WHICH MIGHT GIVE GOOD RETURN, IF MARKET SUPPORTS.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING ZONE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5270-5400. DON'T BE SURPRISED ON THIS WIDE GAP. MOVEMENT IN THIS ZONE WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE AND INDECISIVE. TRADING IN THIS ZONE WILL SURELY RESULT IN EITHER BULL OR BEAR TRAP AND MOUNTING LOSSES. HENCE
BUY CE5400 & CE5500 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5400, KEEPING STOP LOSS OF 5270 FOR THE TARGET OF 5520 & 5650
BUY PE5300 & PE5200 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5270, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5400, FOR THE TARGET OF 5150-5050-4950
FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT THIS WEEK FOR HOLDING 45-60 DAYS IN DELIVERY. BUY ONLY IF YOU HAVE YOUR OWN MONEY AND STRONG HEART TO HOLD. DON'T EXPECT A WIND FALL FORTUNE EVERY TIME ON EVERY STOCK, WHICH I MENTION:
1. TATA STEEL(470.40): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 500-535+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)
2. HIND UNILEVER(409.90): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-450+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET).
3. ORACLE FINANCIAL(2620.20): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 2800-3000+++ ONE COULD SEE DE-LISTING NEWS VERY SOON. JUST BUY IF YOU HAVE MONEY.
4. ARVIND (82.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 95-100+++( ONE CAN ALSO BUY APRIL SERIES CALL OPTION IN EVENT OF ANY MAJOR CRACK IN MARKET)
5. MANGALORE CHEMICALS(40.45): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 65+++. ANY POSITIVE NEWS ON STAKE SALE BY UNITED GROUP/VIJAY MALLYA WILL MAKE THIS COMPANY SHOOT TO 65+++. BUY IN LOW QUANTITY.
6. TTK HEALTH(390.85): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 430-470+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD.
7. VIVIMED LAB(404.00): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON DIPS FOR THE TARGET OF 460-480+++. A GOOD BUY. JUST BUY AND HOLD.
ASTROLOGICALLY: MERCURY GETTING DIRECT ON 4TH APRIL AND MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL ARE THE TWO MAJOR ASTROLOGICAL EVENTS. I EXPECT A FINAL DECEPTIVE MOVE BY MARKET, FULL OF VOLATILITY. MARKET MAY BE BULLISH IN IMMEDIATE TERM TILL NEXT FEW TRADING SESSIONS AS EFFECT OF MERCURY HOWEVER MOVEMENT OF IT IN VEDH CHARTS DEVOID MERCURY OF ITS STRENGTH FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, FROM APRIL 2ND WEEK, 7TH-14TH APRIL WHICH MAY LEAD A SUDDEN FALL, THEN MARS GETTING DIRECT ON 15TH APRIL, WILL GIVE A UNI-DIRECTIONAL MOVE, UNLIKE MERCURY WHICH CONFUSED ALL FROM 12TH MARCH TILL TODAY. HENCE MARKET MAY BE BULLISH TILL APRIL 7TH ( SAY NIFTY AROUND 5400) THEN A BREAK DOWN BETWEEN 7TH -15TH APRIL (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5000 AND THEN A SHARP RISE SAY FROM 15TH APRIL TO 30TH APRIL (SAY NIFTY AROUND 5650).
THIS PATTERN IS JUST A SIMPLEST APPROACH TO THE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS, IF THERE IS NO FALL TILL APRIL 15TH THEN THERE WILL BE A FALL AFTER MARS GETTING DIRECT. HENCE ANALYSE THE MARKET AND DON'T JUST PLAY BLINDLY....
THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL APPROACH AND PREDICTIONS, PLEASE DON'T RELY ON THIS. APPLY YOUR OWN WISDOM, HAVE PATIENCE, AVOID SPECULATION AND DAY DREAMING, DON'T BE BIASED AND FOLLOW THE INVESTMENT AND TRADING PRINCIPLES. ASTROLOGY IS JUST A GUIDANCE OR IDEA IN DARKNESS AND NOT THE INSTRUMENT FOR MAKING FAST BUCK.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING TO ALL.
IN CASE OF ANY CLARIFICATION AND SUGGESTION PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME:
MOBILE: 9335976722
YAHOO ID : vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in
FACE BOOK: 'Astrologer Vikas Srivastava'
NOTE: I SHALL NOT BE AVAILABLE ON MESSENGER OR PHONE CALL ON MONDAY, 2ND APRIL. PLEASE SMS ONLY.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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