LAST WEEK INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET CLOSED ALMOST NEAR THE LOWEST IN LAST THREE MONTHS MAINLY ON TWO MAJOR CONCERNS DEPRECIATING RUPEE AND UNCERTAINTIES ON 'GAAR'. RUPEE FELL AGAINST DOLLAR TO 53.87 BEFORE CLOSING TO ITS ALL TIME LOW, WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO HUGE OIL IMPORTS. UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE MAURITIUS TREATY AND GAAR WERE THE MAIN WORRIES AMONG THE FIIs DURING THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. ALSO THE WEAK EUROPEAN MARKETS, WEEK END AND TECHNICAL BREAK DOWN, NIFTY BELOW 5130, TRGGERED THE SELLING IN INDICES AND MORE IN HIGH BETA STOCKS AND SECTORS LIKE BANKING, METALS AND CAPITAL GOOD PERFORMED THE WORST. NIFTY CLOSED AT 5086.85 AND SENSEX AT 16831.08.
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE VERY VOLATILE AHEAD AS CLARIFICATION ON GAAR IS EXPECTED ANY TIME EARLY THIS WEEK. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS IIP DATA, SCHEDULED ON 11TH MAY. RBI HAS ANNOUNCED TWO MEASURES TO EASE FOREIGN CURRENCY FLOWS AND ALSO TO ENHANCE THE AVAILABILITY OF EXPORT CREDIT IN FOREIGN CURRENCY. SOME IMPORTANT RESULT LIKE HDFC, PANTALOON RETAIL, UNITED SPIRITS, KOTAK BANK ARE ALSO WORTH WATCHING.
FUNDAMENTALLY CURRENTLY NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 14.59 TIMES OF FY12 EARNINGS AND 11.11 TIMES OF FY13(EST), WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THAT WE ARE TRADING CHEAP. HENCE ANY DOWN SIDE BELOW 5000 LEVELS WILL BE BOUGHT AND GRADUALLY WE WILL SEE THE NORTHWARD JOURNEY ONCE THE INFLATION STARTS COOLING AND PENDING ISSUES CLEAR.
HENCE I HAVE NO CHANGE IN MY PREVIOUS VIEW, WHICH REMAINS THE SAME--- " JUST KEEP ON ADDING THE SELECT STOCKS ON EVERY DIP". IF WE ARE LUCKY THEN WE WILL GET CHEAP MARKET AROUND 4950-4900 BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY LUCKY TO GET IT AROUND 4800 OR 4700.
THESE DAYS EVERY ONE HAS STARTED TALKING ABOUT A CRASH ......... AND 4500-4000-3800 LEVELS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT EVERY THING WILL NOT END.......... AFTER THE RESULT SESSION WE WILL BE PRICING THE Q2 NUMBERS AND WE SHALL SEE THE POSITIVE SURPRISE IN IT.
I HAVE COME TO KNOW FROM A SOURCE THAT THE RANGE OF THIS MAY MONTH IS 4850-5400, WE ARE CLOSER TO AROUND 5050, HENCE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT WE WILL FIRST TOUCH 4900-4940 THEN 5400 LATER IF THE MARKETS GETS POSITIVE NEWS, AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT WE MAY TURN POSITIVE ANY TIME WHEN WE GET CLARIFICATION ON GAAR, HENCE SHORTING COULDN'T BE WISE AT THE LOWER LEVELS.....JUST ADD THE FEW FRONT LINE STOCKS( Only in Delivery) AND LIKE SBI, BHARTI, INFOSYS, TATA STEEL ETC AS THESE WILL HAVE SHARP RECOVERY ANY TIME.
ON FRIDAY NIFTY HAS BROKEN 200 DMA AT 5117, NOW IT WILL GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 5000. IF 5000 IS ALSO BROKEN SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY WILL SLIP TO 4940 OR EVEN TO 4850, HOWEVER, A BREACH OF 5350 WOULD INDICATE THE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY WILL TEST THE LEVELS OF 5510 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.HENCE TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5000 AND INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ON ADDING SOME SELECT FRONT LINE STOCKS.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5000-5190.
BUY CE5100 & CE5200 IF MOVES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5190, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5000 FOR THE TARGET OF 5250-5350.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 5000 AND MOVES BELOW, KEEPING 5190 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 4940 & 4850.
FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY IN DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS):
1. RALLIS
2. KENNA METAL(Only in BSE)
3. TTK HEALTH
4. ARVIND
5. MANGALORE CHEM
6. TATA GLOBAL
7. ING VYASYA BANK
8. SAINT GOBAIN
9. INOX
10. SHASHUN CHEM
NOTE: ALL THESE SHARES AND MANY OTHERS, WHICH HAVE BEEN MENTIONED HERE IN THE PAST CONTINUE TO REMAIN AS POSITIVE AS ON THEM PREVIOUSLY.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS WILL BE VERY VOLATILE AHEAD AS CLARIFICATION ON GAAR IS EXPECTED ANY TIME EARLY THIS WEEK. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS IIP DATA, SCHEDULED ON 11TH MAY. RBI HAS ANNOUNCED TWO MEASURES TO EASE FOREIGN CURRENCY FLOWS AND ALSO TO ENHANCE THE AVAILABILITY OF EXPORT CREDIT IN FOREIGN CURRENCY. SOME IMPORTANT RESULT LIKE HDFC, PANTALOON RETAIL, UNITED SPIRITS, KOTAK BANK ARE ALSO WORTH WATCHING.
FUNDAMENTALLY CURRENTLY NIFTY IS TRADING AROUND 14.59 TIMES OF FY12 EARNINGS AND 11.11 TIMES OF FY13(EST), WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THAT WE ARE TRADING CHEAP. HENCE ANY DOWN SIDE BELOW 5000 LEVELS WILL BE BOUGHT AND GRADUALLY WE WILL SEE THE NORTHWARD JOURNEY ONCE THE INFLATION STARTS COOLING AND PENDING ISSUES CLEAR.
HENCE I HAVE NO CHANGE IN MY PREVIOUS VIEW, WHICH REMAINS THE SAME--- " JUST KEEP ON ADDING THE SELECT STOCKS ON EVERY DIP". IF WE ARE LUCKY THEN WE WILL GET CHEAP MARKET AROUND 4950-4900 BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY LUCKY TO GET IT AROUND 4800 OR 4700.
THESE DAYS EVERY ONE HAS STARTED TALKING ABOUT A CRASH ......... AND 4500-4000-3800 LEVELS, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT EVERY THING WILL NOT END.......... AFTER THE RESULT SESSION WE WILL BE PRICING THE Q2 NUMBERS AND WE SHALL SEE THE POSITIVE SURPRISE IN IT.
I HAVE COME TO KNOW FROM A SOURCE THAT THE RANGE OF THIS MAY MONTH IS 4850-5400, WE ARE CLOSER TO AROUND 5050, HENCE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT WE WILL FIRST TOUCH 4900-4940 THEN 5400 LATER IF THE MARKETS GETS POSITIVE NEWS, AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT WE MAY TURN POSITIVE ANY TIME WHEN WE GET CLARIFICATION ON GAAR, HENCE SHORTING COULDN'T BE WISE AT THE LOWER LEVELS.....JUST ADD THE FEW FRONT LINE STOCKS( Only in Delivery) AND LIKE SBI, BHARTI, INFOSYS, TATA STEEL ETC AS THESE WILL HAVE SHARP RECOVERY ANY TIME.
ON FRIDAY NIFTY HAS BROKEN 200 DMA AT 5117, NOW IT WILL GET STRONG SUPPORT AT 5000. IF 5000 IS ALSO BROKEN SHORT TERM TREND WILL BECOME NEGATIVE AND NIFTY WILL SLIP TO 4940 OR EVEN TO 4850, HOWEVER, A BREACH OF 5350 WOULD INDICATE THE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY WILL TEST THE LEVELS OF 5510 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.HENCE TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5000 AND INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ON ADDING SOME SELECT FRONT LINE STOCKS.
FOR THIS WEEK: NO TRADING RANGE FOR THE NIFTY IS 5000-5190.
BUY CE5100 & CE5200 IF MOVES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5190, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5000 FOR THE TARGET OF 5250-5350.
BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 5000 AND MOVES BELOW, KEEPING 5190 AS STOP-LOSS FOR THE TARGET OF 4940 & 4850.
FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY IN DELIVERY(45-60 DAYS):
1. RALLIS
2. KENNA METAL(Only in BSE)
3. TTK HEALTH
4. ARVIND
5. MANGALORE CHEM
6. TATA GLOBAL
7. ING VYASYA BANK
8. SAINT GOBAIN
9. INOX
10. SHASHUN CHEM
NOTE: ALL THESE SHARES AND MANY OTHERS, WHICH HAVE BEEN MENTIONED HERE IN THE PAST CONTINUE TO REMAIN AS POSITIVE AS ON THEM PREVIOUSLY.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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