FUNDAMENTALLY: LAST WEEK WAS VERY CHOPPY, RISE ON THURSDAY, 7TH JULY AND FALL ON FRIDAY, 8TH JULY SHOWS MORE PAIN COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOLLOWING WEAK GLOBAL CUES FROM U.S , CHINA AND EUROPE.
NOW SEE THE GLOBAL EVENTS FOR WHICH THE MARKET IS WATCHING FOR----
U.S trade balance and FOMC minutes will be out on 12th July.
A spate of important Chinese statistics , including Q2 GDP report, will be issued on July 13th.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress.
Most important European banks' stress test results are due on 15th July and lot many other data points should be closely watched.
DOMESTICALLY, Government will release IIP & Inflation data next week, while the pace of the results announcement will accelerate. Infosys, TCS, Bajaj Auto, JSW Steel,Canara Bank, Godrej Properties,LIC Housing & Coal India will declare their Q1 earnings.
NEXT IMPORTANT THING FUNDAMENTALLY WILL BE FIIs INFLOW. If the Fund Flow remain bouyant due to global liquidity, will be very important for inflating the Indices in India.
HENCE TO SUM-UP FUNDAMENTALLY , Q1 EARNINGS, GLOBAL CUES, AND FIIs FUND FLOW, SHALL BE THE KEY FACTRS TO BE WATCHED FOR MARKET DIRECTION.
Overall, the sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, may gradually result in more FIIs flow-in and gradual rise in Indices and select stocks. Hence BUY ON DIPS shall be the strategy for the week having view of Nifty touching 5944 any time soon.
TECHNICALLY, THE 200 DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE,PLACED AT 5742, GAVE A TOUGH FIGHT ON ON FRIDAY, AS NIFTY,AFTER TOUCHING A HIGH OF 5740, SUFFERED A SHARP 1.4% CUT FROM THE TOP OF THE DAY TO END AT 5660, HOWEVER ON WEEKLY BASIS,THE BENCHMARK MANAGED TO END AT HIGHER BY 0.6%. FRIDAY BROUGHT THE FIRST MEANINGFUL CORRECTION AFTER A LONG PERIOD.WEEKLY CLOSE IS LOWER THAN THE WEEKLY OPEN,RESULTING IN FORMATION OF A RED CANDLE ON THE WEEKLY CHART. FRIDAY'S CLOSE WAS QUITE WEAK AND INDICATES SOME MORE WEAKNESS GOING FORWARD. 5610, THE LOW MADE LAST WEEK IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT TO WATCH OUT FOR, A BREACH OF WHICH CAN TAKE THE NIFTY TO ABOUT 5500 (5565-5545, SHALL BE SUPPORT)WHERE 20 AS WELL 34 DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE ARE PLACED. ON THE UP SIDE,5740, THE TOP MADE ON FRIDAY, WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE 200 DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE,IS THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE TO WATCH OUT FOR,A CROSSOVER OF WHICH CAN TAKE NIFTY TO ABOUT 5944,THE YEAR 2011 TOP MADE IN APRIL.THE BROAD RANGE OF THE MARKET SHALL BE 5500-5800
HENCE, TRADERS AND MOMENTUM PLAYERS ARE ADVISED TO BOOK PROFITS IN THE LONG POSITIONS AND WAIT FOR 5740 TO BE CROSSED ON THE UPSIDE BEFORE TAKING FRESH LONG POSITION.
HENCE, TRADERS AND MOMENTUM PLAYERS ARE ADVISED TO BOOK PROFITS IN THE LONG POSITIONS AND WAIT FOR 5740 TO BE CROSSED ON THE UPSIDE BEFORE TAKING FRESH LONG POSITION.
4. DCB(62.00): BUY THIS STOCK IN HUGE QUANTITY IN DELIVERY FOR 2-3 MONTHS, BUY AT CMO AND ON EVERY FALL FOR THE TARGET OF 68-70+ IN THE SHORT TERM AND 85-90+++ IN THE MDEDIUM TERM.
(For more intra-day moves and stock queries kindly contact on line on yahoo messenger at "vikas198012003@yahoo.co.in")
MONDAY-TUESDAY SHALL SEE SLUGGISH TRADE, RANGE BOUND MOVEMENT, WITH SUDDEN SHOOT-UP IN INDICES AND GRADUAL DRIFT LOWER & LOWER. THERE COULD BE SELLING AT HIGHER LEVELS AND LACK OF BUYING INTEREST, LACK OF CONVICTION AMONG TRADERS & INVESTORS. Hence buying of PE(PUTS) on every rise and buying of CE(CALLS) on every fall with strict stop-loss could be best strategy to book profits at lower levels for these 2 days.
PLANETARY POSITION SUGGESTS WEAKNESS TO PERSIST ON 13TH JULY 2011. SOME NEGATIVE NEWS MIGHT HIT THE MARKET SENTIMENT. How should you play on Wednesday???? . Just keep some PUTS in your portfolio to hedge the same and book profit on late Wednesday or early Thursday(Those who hold securities and shares) and buy SELECT SHARES on late Wednesday or on any deep cut in market, if any(Those who hold cash for investment). Note: In any case no major short position should be made, instead value buying should be sought.
ON 14TH & 15TH JULY 2011, MARKETS SHALL SEE SOME BUYING INTEREST AND VALUE BUYING, A NARROW RALLY COULD BE SEEN ONCE MORE. Buying of Calls on 13th July late hours, shall give profit on these two days.
NOTE: There are 30% chance that I may go wrong. Buying options, instead of shorting or longing futures, shall be good strategy.Shorting should be avoided, in this week and value buying in stocks should be done.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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