MARKETS SAW GOOD BUYING IN ALL SECTORS WITH HUGE VOLUMES, EVEN WHEN THE GLOBAL CUES WERE WEAK AS IT WAS EXPECTED. SENSEX ENDED AT 18871(UP 149 POINTS) AND NIFTY ENDED AT 5680(UP 46 POINTS), BOTH MID-CAP AD SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS UP AND MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE.
AS SAID EARLIER MARKET WAS EXACTLY IN THE SAME RANGE AND LINE AND MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5650. NOW THE MARKET IS POISED FOR SHORT TERM UP MOVE AND ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5750 WILL BE A GREAT SIGN FOR BULLS. NIFTY MAY MOVE 150-200 POINTS IF CROSSES 5750 AND TEST 5900-5950. HOWEVER THE MOVE WILL BE LED BY BUYING AND SHORT COVERING BOTH. AS SAID NIFTY SETTLEMENT ON 28TH JULY (THURSDAY) IS SUPPOSED TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5700. NIFTY MAY FIND LITTLE RESISTANCE AT 5755 & 5800 ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORT FOR NIFTY SHALL BE 5610-5600 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 5550.
THE KEY EVENT TO WATCH TODAY IS RBI'S MONETARY POLICY. WHICH SHALL BE OUT ANY TIME BETWEEN 11.30 TO 12.00 PM. BEFORE THAT MARKET MIGHT BE NERVOUS BUT POST POLICY MARKET MIGHT SEE SOME VOLATILE MOVES, NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO CROSS 5750, BUT WILL FACE RESISTANCE.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL HIKE REPO-RATE BY 25bps AND IF THE LANGUAGE OF THE RBI IS SOFT GOING FORWARD REGARDING THE TACKLING OF THE INFLATION, WHICH GIVES AN IDEA THAT INTEREST RATE CYCLE MAY BE PEAKING AROUND 8% (most probably in September) THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY POST POLICY AND NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER ABOVE 5750..........
IF THE RATE HIKE BY RBI IS 25bps AND THE LANGUAGE OF RBI REMAINS HAWKISH AS USUAL, AND IT SEEMS THAT RBI WILL KEEP ON HIKING RATES TILL INFLATION EASES, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF(chances of which are less) AND NIFTY WILL LOOSE THE STEAM AND MARKET MAY TAKE SHARP KNOCK DOWN.
HOWEVER UNDER A RARE CHANCE THAT RBI MAY PAUSE, AND WAIT FOR MORE CLEAR PICTURE FOR INFLATION TO EMERGE, THEN THERE WILL BE SHARP UP MOVE(as market has priced-in 25bps hike in rate) AND THERE WILL BE BUYING ALL ROUND. CONVERSELY IF RBI SURPRISES BY HIKE EITHER BY MORE THAN 25bps (say 50bps) OR HIKES CRR(chances are very very less) THEN MARKET MAY NOT DIGEST THIS AND GROWTH WILL BE HAMPERED MAKING THE SENTIMENT VERY POOR, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHARP FALL IN INDICES AND STOCKS.{There is remote possibility of this situation}
CONCLUSION: IT SHOULD BE OBSERVED THAT WHAT RBI FORESEE IN NEAR TERM INFLATION AND SPEAKS OF INTEREST RATE CYCLE. IN ALL POSITIVE SITUATION MARKET SHALL SEE UPWARD MARCH AND THOSE WHO HOLD NIFTY CALLS LIKE CE5500 & CE5600 SHOULD BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS AT 5750 AND IF MARKET MOVES ABOVE 5750 AFTER THE POLICY THEN BUY NIFTY CE5700(AUGUST SERIES).
FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO ACCUMULATE AS THEY MAY GIVE HUGE VALUE IN MONTHS TO COME:
1. NIIT(56.10): BUY THIS STOCK FOR 3-4 MONTHS VIEW. SHORT TERM TARGET IS 70++ AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 90++( ALSO ADD ON DIPS, IF MARKET CORRECTS IN AUGUST).
2.LANCO INFRA(20.15): THIS STOCK IS NEAR 52-WEEK LOW. DOWN SIDE RISK IS NOW MINIMUM. AND THE UPSIDE HAS HUGE POTENTIALS. BUY THIS STOCK FOR SHORT TERM TARGET OF 30(1-2 MONTHS) AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 45++++(5-6 MONTHS). MUST BUY THIS SHARE IN HUGE QUANTITY.
S KUMAR NATION(57.80): BUY THIS STOCK FOR VERY-SHORT TERM TARGET OF 63-65++ AND MEDUIM TERM TARGET OF 98+++. A VERY POSITIVE NEWS FLOW WILL TAKE THIS STOCK RISING.
STOCK TO WATCH FOR UPSWING IN FUTURE/OPTION SEGMENT(5-6 DAYS-AUGUST SERIES):
LUPIN SL BELOW 448 TARGET 470++
HDFC SL BELOW 704 TARGET 730++
L&T SL BELOW 1845 TARET 1900+++
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
AS SAID EARLIER MARKET WAS EXACTLY IN THE SAME RANGE AND LINE AND MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5650. NOW THE MARKET IS POISED FOR SHORT TERM UP MOVE AND ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5750 WILL BE A GREAT SIGN FOR BULLS. NIFTY MAY MOVE 150-200 POINTS IF CROSSES 5750 AND TEST 5900-5950. HOWEVER THE MOVE WILL BE LED BY BUYING AND SHORT COVERING BOTH. AS SAID NIFTY SETTLEMENT ON 28TH JULY (THURSDAY) IS SUPPOSED TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5700. NIFTY MAY FIND LITTLE RESISTANCE AT 5755 & 5800 ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORT FOR NIFTY SHALL BE 5610-5600 AND STRONG SUPPORT AT 5550.
THE KEY EVENT TO WATCH TODAY IS RBI'S MONETARY POLICY. WHICH SHALL BE OUT ANY TIME BETWEEN 11.30 TO 12.00 PM. BEFORE THAT MARKET MIGHT BE NERVOUS BUT POST POLICY MARKET MIGHT SEE SOME VOLATILE MOVES, NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO CROSS 5750, BUT WILL FACE RESISTANCE.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL HIKE REPO-RATE BY 25bps AND IF THE LANGUAGE OF THE RBI IS SOFT GOING FORWARD REGARDING THE TACKLING OF THE INFLATION, WHICH GIVES AN IDEA THAT INTEREST RATE CYCLE MAY BE PEAKING AROUND 8% (most probably in September) THEN THERE WILL BE RALLY POST POLICY AND NIFTY COULD HEAD HIGHER ABOVE 5750..........
IF THE RATE HIKE BY RBI IS 25bps AND THE LANGUAGE OF RBI REMAINS HAWKISH AS USUAL, AND IT SEEMS THAT RBI WILL KEEP ON HIKING RATES TILL INFLATION EASES, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF(chances of which are less) AND NIFTY WILL LOOSE THE STEAM AND MARKET MAY TAKE SHARP KNOCK DOWN.
HOWEVER UNDER A RARE CHANCE THAT RBI MAY PAUSE, AND WAIT FOR MORE CLEAR PICTURE FOR INFLATION TO EMERGE, THEN THERE WILL BE SHARP UP MOVE(as market has priced-in 25bps hike in rate) AND THERE WILL BE BUYING ALL ROUND. CONVERSELY IF RBI SURPRISES BY HIKE EITHER BY MORE THAN 25bps (say 50bps) OR HIKES CRR(chances are very very less) THEN MARKET MAY NOT DIGEST THIS AND GROWTH WILL BE HAMPERED MAKING THE SENTIMENT VERY POOR, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHARP FALL IN INDICES AND STOCKS.{There is remote possibility of this situation}
CONCLUSION: IT SHOULD BE OBSERVED THAT WHAT RBI FORESEE IN NEAR TERM INFLATION AND SPEAKS OF INTEREST RATE CYCLE. IN ALL POSITIVE SITUATION MARKET SHALL SEE UPWARD MARCH AND THOSE WHO HOLD NIFTY CALLS LIKE CE5500 & CE5600 SHOULD BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS AT 5750 AND IF MARKET MOVES ABOVE 5750 AFTER THE POLICY THEN BUY NIFTY CE5700(AUGUST SERIES).
FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO ACCUMULATE AS THEY MAY GIVE HUGE VALUE IN MONTHS TO COME:
1. NIIT(56.10): BUY THIS STOCK FOR 3-4 MONTHS VIEW. SHORT TERM TARGET IS 70++ AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 90++( ALSO ADD ON DIPS, IF MARKET CORRECTS IN AUGUST).
2.LANCO INFRA(20.15): THIS STOCK IS NEAR 52-WEEK LOW. DOWN SIDE RISK IS NOW MINIMUM. AND THE UPSIDE HAS HUGE POTENTIALS. BUY THIS STOCK FOR SHORT TERM TARGET OF 30(1-2 MONTHS) AND MEDIUM TERM TARGET OF 45++++(5-6 MONTHS). MUST BUY THIS SHARE IN HUGE QUANTITY.
S KUMAR NATION(57.80): BUY THIS STOCK FOR VERY-SHORT TERM TARGET OF 63-65++ AND MEDUIM TERM TARGET OF 98+++. A VERY POSITIVE NEWS FLOW WILL TAKE THIS STOCK RISING.
STOCK TO WATCH FOR UPSWING IN FUTURE/OPTION SEGMENT(5-6 DAYS-AUGUST SERIES):
LUPIN SL BELOW 448 TARGET 470++
HDFC SL BELOW 704 TARGET 730++
L&T SL BELOW 1845 TARET 1900+++
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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