Thursday, July 28, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 28th JULY 2011-SETTLEMENT DAY

MARKETS OPENED FLAT AND NIFTY MADE HIGH OF 5591.70 AND THEN NIFTY CONTINUOUSLY FELL DOWN SLOWLY TO 5521.50 AND FINALLY CLOSED AT 5546.80, DOWN 28.05 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 18432.25 DOWN 85.97. MARKET BREADTH WAS NEGATIVE AND MID-CAP INDEX WAS DOWN AND SMALL-CAP INDEX WAS SLIGHTLY UP. NIFTY CONFIRMED THE BEARISHNESS AS IT CLOSED BELOW 5550 LEVELS.


TODAY BEING THE EXPIRY DAY, WILL BE FULL OF STOCK ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO SHORT AND LONG POSITIONS IN F&O STOCKS. HENCE NIFTY MAY TRADE IN A VOLATILE MANNER.  FOR LAST 20-25 DAYS NIFTY HAS BEEN TAKING STRONG SUPPORT AT 5500. SO 5500 BECOMES THE CRUCIAL & STRONG SUPPORT. NOW IF NIFTY(SPOT) BREACHES 5510 THEN THE SHORT TERM TREND WILL BE NEGATIVE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREE FALL TO 5300. ON THE HIGHER SIDE THE CRUCIAL RESISTANCE FOR THE NIFTY IS AT 5720, CROSS OVER WHICH MAY LEAD TO A VERY SHORT TERM RALLY TO 5900. HENCE ALL THE TRADERS SHOULD KEEP STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 5500 FOR THE LONG POSITIONS IN FUTURE, OPTIONS AND SHORT-TERM DELIVERY POSITIONS.


NOW FOR TODAY: THE TRADING RANGE FOR TODAY SHALL BE 5515-5580. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5515 THEN NIFTY SHALL TOUCH 5500 AND THEN 5470. ON THE OTHER HAND IF NIFTY BREACHES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5580 THEN 5610 AND 5600 COULD BE TESTED.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS WILL NOT BE GOOD TO TRADE AND EARN PROFITS ON THE LONG SIDE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. MARKETS WILL BE WEAK AND TRADE LOWER DAY BY DAY. AVOID FRESH LARGE POSITIONS. THERE WILL BE DRASTIC FALL IN NIFTY VERY SOON. ASTROLOGICAL ALERT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE LARGE LEVERAGED POSITION IN CASH OR FUTURE. AVOID LONGS AND TRY TO REDUCE LONG POSITION ON ANY RISE.


HOW TO PLAY IN OPTIONS TODAY????


IF NIFTY BREAKS DOWN 5535, THEN BUY PE5500(AUG) AND THERE COULD BE GOOD GAINS OF 40-50 POINTS.


IF NIFTY BREAKS OUT ABOVE 5560, THEN BUY CE5500(AUG) AND THERE COULD BE GOOD GAINS OF 40-50 POINTS.


IF NIFTY OPENS NEAR 5500-5515-5530 RANGE THEN WAIT & WATCH AND BUY PE5500(AUG) AND HOLD FOR BOOKING IN AUGUST.


IF NIFTY OPENS NEAR 5570-5590 (CHANCES ARE LESS) THEN BUY PE 5600(AUG) AND HOLD FOR BOOKING IN AUGUST.


DERIVATIVE PLAY IN STOCK FUTURE/OPTIONS:


1. DISH TV AUG FUT(84.65): BUY ON ANY DIP/FALL OR AT CMP KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 80.90 FOR THE TARGET OF 86-88-90+++


2. IDBI AUG FUT(131.15): SHORT ON RISE OR AT CMP KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 134.40(CLOSING BASIS) FOR THE TARGET OF 125-122 VERY SOON.


NOTE: NO LONG/SHORT ROLLOVERS ARE SUGGESTED AS IT WILL BE A TRAP FOR BULLS & BEARS BOTH AND THE MARKETS MAY TRADE IN THE RANGE OF 5900-5200 IN AUGUST SERIES. THERE ARE CHANCES THAT NIFTY WILL DROP INITIALLY AND THEN THERE COULD BE RECOVERY FROM TIME TO TIME.


HOW TO PLAY IN SUCH CHOPPY & UNCERTAIN MARKETS?????
JUST KEEP ON ACCUMULATING THE GOOD QUALITY , GROWTH POTENTIAL STOCKS, WHICH WILL RALLY FAST WHEN MARKETS STABLE AFTER 2-3 MONTHS:


1. NIIT(55.60): BUY/ACCUMULATE THIS STOCK AT CMP AND ON EVERY  FALL FOR MEDIUM TERM HOLDING OF 3-4 MONTHS. THE STOCK CAN TOUCH 75-80+++. A GOOD BUY.


2.PATNI COMP(328.30): 
ALL THE WORST HAS BEEN PRICED IN THE COMPANY. BUY THIS STOCK AT CMP OR ON EVERY FALL FOR 2-3 MONTHS HOLD. TARGET COULD BE 380-400++ ON SURPRISE MOVES POSSIBLE.


3. LITL(18.55): BUY/ACCUMULATE  THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 30++ BY NEXT 4-6 MONTHS. MUST BUY IN THE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO ALSO.


S.KUMARS NATION(56.55): 
BUY THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL FOR 2-3 MONTHS HOLDING. THE STOCK COULD TOUCH 90+++ ON SOME NEWS FLOW.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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