Thursday, June 30, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 30th JUNE 2011-EXPIRY SPECIAL

INDIAN MARKET TRADED POSITIVELY THOUGH OUT THE DAY ON BACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES AND IT CLOSED ALMOST NEAR TO THE HIGH. NIFTY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE 5600 AND SENSEX AT 18693,UP 201 POINT.MARKET BREADTH WAS STRONG 876 ADVANCES AGAINST 418 DECLINES SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RALLY IS NOT MERELY A SHORT COVERING RALLY OR NARROW RALLY.


AS SAID EARLIER NIFTY SETTLEMENT SHALL TAKE PLACE ABOVE 5600.HOWEVER THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MARKET SHALL BE 5570-5655.AS THE BIAS FOR THE MARKET IS POSITIVE & BULLISH SHORTING IS NOT ADVISED,HOWEVER NIFTY PUTS OF JULY SERIES(PE5400,PE5500,PE5600) SHOULD BE ACCUMULATED,AS ADVISING FOR LAST 5 DAYS,THAT WILL GIVE OOD RETURN, AS & WHEN THE MARKET DIPS.


THE DOWN SIDE RISK NOW SEEMS TO BE LIMITED(MAY BE 5350-5400 A GOOD SUPPORT),AS ALL MAJOR NEWS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AND THERE REMAINS CLARITY ON CERTAIN ISSUES LIKE MONSOON, RATE HIKES, GOVERNMENT ROLE IN CHECKING FISCAL DEFICIT, CONTRLLOING INFLATION AND ACTION IN REFORMS BECOMING EVIDENT.


I.T. STOCKS MAY START MOVING AFTER THE JUNE SERIES BY NEXT 15 DAYS.HENCE BUY I.T. STOCKS LIKE INFOSYS, TCS, WIPRO ON EVERY FALL.


BUY FOLOWING STOCKS:


PATNI: Buy in delivery at cmp 330. Hold for some up side of 5%-10% or more very soon.


SRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE: Buy in delivery at cmp 601 for some decent up side in days to come.


WHAT ANALYSTS SAY NOW??? EVERY ONE OF YOU MUST BE FAMILIAR OF WHAT THE ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR LAST FEW DAYS.SOME SAID THAT THE SHORT COVERING RALLY TO 5400,SOME TO 5500 SOME SAY ITS SURPRISING THAT NIFTY HAS GAINED 400 POINTS IN 5 DAYS, SOME STILL BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT UP-MOVE IS FALLACIOUS AND MERELY DUE TO EXTREME PESSIMISM AND SHORT POSITIONS, SOME SAY NOW 5600-5650 IS THE LIMIT, SOME STILL SAY THAT POST JUNE SETTLEMENT MARKETS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN AND NOW NIFTY WILL BREAK DOWN BELOW 5200 NOTHING HAS CHANGED FUNDAMENTALLY, SOME SAY THAT NOW 5200 WILL HOLD AND NIFTY WILL NOT GO BELOW 5350-5400 RANGE. THIS IS ALL MESS WHICH IS DISTURBING A COMMON MAN,A SIMPLE INVESTOR AND A INNOCENT TRADER. MANIPULATIONS IN NEWS, PRESENTATION OF WRONG IDEA BY MARKET MANIPULATORS AND OPERATORS,ETC HAVE LED TO ULTIMATE CONFUSION IN THE MARKET AND TO ITS PARTICIPANTS.EVERY NEXT PERSON ASKS THE SAME OLD QUESTION" WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING?" AND THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS "NO BODY KNOWS?"


SO WHAT'S THE SOLUTION TO THIS PERPETUAL PROBLEM?????


STRICTLY FOLLOW THE FOLLOWING APPROACH:


1.Don't stick to follow the market.Forget to track/guess or analyse the market perfectly, no body can!!!!! then how can you.


2.Try to get the pulse of market and follow the direction.It should be made clear that we are in India, where there is growth. Markets will reflect the growth ultimately, after all jitters and aberrational moves.This means that it will go down and discount every bad news and then start moving up when the sentiment is improved.But unfortunately this makes us very fearful and shaky and we stop buying when script goes lower & lower.One should buy more when script moves downwards, forget all other rules.


3.Never buy any thing for short term. This is very important. Never never never, buy for just 5 days,10days,15days,1month. At least have vision of 3months or more. The simple reason is this that there are quarterly results, change in global condition, change in Govt policy and market anticipation, etc, etc, so that gives much cushion to your investment. Playing for short term is like a gambling and killing of health, wealth and wisdom. So think for little longer than just short term trade.


4 Pick the Stock, which has potential and its has not performed so far. This is very tough and you can take advise of your investment advisor,consultant or any good analyst or website, where you can get good stuff.(My blog may help you a little in this regard)


5.Last but not least, always 'Buy' or 'Sell'(for trading purpose) in small quantities and in staggered manner or phased manner.Never jump and buy in huge quantity in excitement or sell all in panic. Just start buying in small quantity and add more when it comes down 2%-3% then 5%-7% then 10%-12% and so on.Then similarly sell in parts when you are up 2%-3%,then 5%-7% in similar fashion. This approach will always give you profit irrespective of the market. Try this in shares like, SAIL,ITC, HUL,NTPC etc.,you will 99% gain & never loose any money in trading.


Wish You all Happy Investing,Profitable Trading and Lucky Speculation.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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