Monday, June 13, 2011

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 13TH JUNE 2011 TO 17TH JUNE 2011

MARKET ENDED LOWER AFTER THE IIP NUMBERS ON FRIDAY,SURRENDERING TO THE EARLIER GAINS ON THE NEWS OF MONSOON REACHING KERALA.NIFTY ENDED AT 5485 DOWN 35 POINTS WHILE SENSEX ENDED AT 18270 DOWN 116 POINTS.ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS, WHETHER INTERNAL & EXTERNAL WEAKENED THE SENTIMENT AND FIIs & DIIs WERE GENERALLY NET SELLERS IN EQUITIES. HENCE LAST WEEK MARKET POISED VERY CRUCIALLY NEAR SUPPORT AT 5450.


ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE NO POSITIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE MARKET AT LEAST IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE OF 3-4 MONTHS.HOWEVER THERE ARE COUPLE OF NEGATIVE TRIGGERS. GLOBALLY ALSO THE MARKET DOESN'T LOOK TOO GOOD. DOW,NASDAQ & S&P  CLOSED MUCH LOWER DEEP IN THE RED, MAKING THE SENTIMENT MORE MURKY.NOW LACK OF NO POSITIVE TRIGGER AND A NEGATIVE TRIGGER(LIKE HIKE IN INTEREST RATE BY MORE THAN 25bps BY RBI ON 16TH JUNE) COULD MAKE THE SENTIMENT MORE WORSE AND THERE WILL BE IMMENSE SELLING GOING FORWARD.AS GOOD MONSOON HAS ALREADY BEEN DISCOUNTED BY THE MARKET, RISE IN CRUDE OIL PRICES(TO $115-120) COULD BE DAMPER. THIS ALL MAY LEAD NIFTY TO 5200 AND NIFTY 17200 WHICH MAY PROOF A VERY GOOD SUPPORT. ANY BAD NEWS FROM RBI ON 16TH JUNE IN THE CREDIT POLICY , LIKE HIKE IN INTEREST RATE BY MORE THAN 25bps, LIKE 50bps, WILL INVITE INTENSE SELLING. ALSO TECHNICALLY THE LONG TERM TREND IS DOWN, MEDIUM TERM TREND IS DOWN AND ONLY A SHORT TERM TREND IS UP, WHICH WILL TURN DOWN IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5383. HENCE ALL LONGS(FUTURE & OPTIONS/ LARGE DELIVERY POSITION SHOULD BE CLOSED AROUND 5500 LEVELS AND THEN BE BOUGHT BACK AFTER THE RBI POLICY WHEN NIFTY WILL HEAD DOWN WARD VERY SHARPLY.


HENCE TO CONCLUDE: NIFTY WILL COME DOWN TO 5400 LEVELS AND THEN BELOW THT TO 5200 LEVELS IF RBI HIKES THE INTEREST RATE. AS SUGGESTED EARLIER BUYING PUTS IN NIFTY OPTIONS FOR JUNE SERIES,ON EVERY RISE IN NIFTY,WILL BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF RETURN IN SHORT TERM. BUY NIFTY PE5500,PE5400& PE5300 AND SELL AFTER THE RBI POLICY IS DECLARED ON 16TH JUNE.


ASTROLOGICALLY: PRESENCE OF 5 PLANETS IN TAURUS,SIGN OF FINANCE AND BANKING,WILL BE UNDER SEVERE PRESSURE. WHY ? TAURUS BEING THE EXALTATION SIGN OF MOON, SCORPIO BEING THE DEBILITATION SIGN OF MOON, WHEN OCCUPIED OR ASPECTED BY THE SUN, MARS ETC MAKES THE SIGN TO LOOSE ITS POLARITY AND RESULTS IN UNEXPECTED EVENTS.HENCE IT COULD BE CONCLUDED THAT RBI ON 16TH AFTER THE LUNAR ECLIPSE WILL HIKE INTEREST RATE BY MORE THAN 25bps GIVING A JOLT TO TAURUS, JUPITER & VENUS POSTED THERE. HENCE THEY WILL FALL DEEPLY AND THEN RISE. DECEPTION WILL BE THERE AS RAHU & KETHU ARE ALSO INVOLVED.
HENCE MARKETS WILL BE WEAK ANY TIME AFTER THE LUNAR ECLIPSE ON 15TH JUNE. BUY PUTS IF NIFTY: PE5500 & PE5400.


FOLLOWING SHARES LOOKS GOOD TO BUY/ACCUMULATE IN DELIVERY IN EVENT OF ANY DEEP CUT IS SEEN:


HSIL(500187),
NELCAST(532864),
PATNI,
SKUMAR,
G.M.BREVERAGES(507488),
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THERE ARE MANY OTHER STOCKS.Those who wish to know could contact on line at vikas19801@yahoo.co.in




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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