IN A VOLATILE SESSION ON MONDAY, MARKET CLOSED FLAT,AFTER RECOVERY FROM THE LOWS IN THE MORNING SESSION.NIFTY CLOSED AT 5482.80 DOWN 3 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 18266.03 DOWN 2.51 POINTS.THE CLOSING LEVEL COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER IF RELIANCE WOULD NOT HAVE PERFORMED NEGATIVELY IN THE MARKET.
ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE CREDIT POLICY ON 16TH WILL BE TURNING POINT FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM.ANALYSTS SAY THAT MARKET HAS PRICED IN 25bps HIKE IN REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE, HOWEVER THE IMPORTANT POINT WILL BE THE LANGUAGE WHICH RBI USES FOR FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION.
IF RBI HIKES INTEREST RATE BY 25bps AND REMAINS SOFT ON FURTHER POLICY MEASURES FOR CONTROLLING INFLATION AND EXPECTS THE INFLATION TO COME DOWN AFTER GOOD MONSOON,THEN THERE WILL BE SOME CHEER IN THE MARKET AND NIFTY MAY HEAD TOWARDS 5700-5800.(CHANCES OF THIS SCENE IS VERY VERY REMOTE)
IF RBI HIKES RATES BY 25bps AND USES HAWKISH LANGUAGE AND EXPRESSES CONCERNS OVER THE INFLATION AND HINTS THE CHANCES OF USING THE SAME MEASURE BY FURTHER RATE HIKE, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF AND NIFTY COULD HEAD LOWER TO 5300-5200 AND LATER IT MAY BE RANGE BOUND(5200-5400).
NOW IN ANOTHER SCENE RBI COULD HIKE RATES BY 50bps OR MORE IN ONE TRANCE AND HINT THE TOPPING OUT OF THE SAME,THEN MARKET MAY PLUNGE DUE TO PROSPECTIVE SETBACK TO THE GROWTH. NIFTY COULD HIT LOW OF EVEN 5000.( CHANCES OF THIS CONDITION ARE ALSO REMOTE.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, RBI MAY REFRAIN FROM RATE HIKE AND CONSIDERS GROWTH PROSPECTS ALSO. THEN TOO MARKET MAY CHEER LITTLE BIT BUT IT WILL COME DOWN AS THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SERIOUS CONCERNS , WHICH MAY WORRY FIIs AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
HENCE CREDIT REVIEW POLICY BY RBI
SHALL BE A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE IN WHICH THE MARKET IS LOOKING FOR. IN SUCH CASE IT WILL BE WISE TO PLAY WITH THE FOLLOWING STRATEGY.:
BUY CE5500 AND PE5500,i.e., MAKE A STRADDLE OF 5500 NIFTY OPTION (IN JUNE SERIES).AND NIFTY RANGE SHALL BE 5400-5600. ANY POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE NEWS SHALL BRING PROFITS TO THE OPTION PLAYERS, AS NIFTY WILL BREAK THE EITHER SIDE, TURNING THE PRICE TO PROFITS.
HAPPY OPTION TRADING!!!!!!!
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
Dismissing fears of a slowdown, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said India's growth drivers are intact and the Centre is committed to policy reforms.
ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE CREDIT POLICY ON 16TH WILL BE TURNING POINT FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM.ANALYSTS SAY THAT MARKET HAS PRICED IN 25bps HIKE IN REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE, HOWEVER THE IMPORTANT POINT WILL BE THE LANGUAGE WHICH RBI USES FOR FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION.
IF RBI HIKES INTEREST RATE BY 25bps AND REMAINS SOFT ON FURTHER POLICY MEASURES FOR CONTROLLING INFLATION AND EXPECTS THE INFLATION TO COME DOWN AFTER GOOD MONSOON,THEN THERE WILL BE SOME CHEER IN THE MARKET AND NIFTY MAY HEAD TOWARDS 5700-5800.(CHANCES OF THIS SCENE IS VERY VERY REMOTE)
IF RBI HIKES RATES BY 25bps AND USES HAWKISH LANGUAGE AND EXPRESSES CONCERNS OVER THE INFLATION AND HINTS THE CHANCES OF USING THE SAME MEASURE BY FURTHER RATE HIKE, THEN THERE COULD BE SELL-OFF AND NIFTY COULD HEAD LOWER TO 5300-5200 AND LATER IT MAY BE RANGE BOUND(5200-5400).
NOW IN ANOTHER SCENE RBI COULD HIKE RATES BY 50bps OR MORE IN ONE TRANCE AND HINT THE TOPPING OUT OF THE SAME,THEN MARKET MAY PLUNGE DUE TO PROSPECTIVE SETBACK TO THE GROWTH. NIFTY COULD HIT LOW OF EVEN 5000.( CHANCES OF THIS CONDITION ARE ALSO REMOTE.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, RBI MAY REFRAIN FROM RATE HIKE AND CONSIDERS GROWTH PROSPECTS ALSO. THEN TOO MARKET MAY CHEER LITTLE BIT BUT IT WILL COME DOWN AS THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SERIOUS CONCERNS , WHICH MAY WORRY FIIs AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
HENCE CREDIT REVIEW POLICY BY RBI
SHALL BE A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE IN WHICH THE MARKET IS LOOKING FOR. IN SUCH CASE IT WILL BE WISE TO PLAY WITH THE FOLLOWING STRATEGY.:
BUY CE5500 AND PE5500,i.e., MAKE A STRADDLE OF 5500 NIFTY OPTION (IN JUNE SERIES).AND NIFTY RANGE SHALL BE 5400-5600. ANY POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE NEWS SHALL BRING PROFITS TO THE OPTION PLAYERS, AS NIFTY WILL BREAK THE EITHER SIDE, TURNING THE PRICE TO PROFITS.
HAPPY OPTION TRADING!!!!!!!
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
Dismissing fears of a slowdown, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said India's growth drivers are intact and the Centre is committed to policy reforms.
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