MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 10TH DEC 2012 TO 14TH DEC 2012

Last week was remarkable in the Indian economic history as UPA Government won vote in FDI in multi-brand retail in both the houses, which will obviously prove to be mile stone. Indian capital market indices moved up marginally over last week. Also the global cues were murky resulting in profit booking on friday. Sensex &Nifty ended at 19424.10 & 5907.40 up slightly less than 0.50%.

Now investors are waiting to see how the rest of winter session of parliament pans out. Till now the markets and key developments were in line with the expectation, as mentioned in previous postings. Going forward certain key events like Chinese industrial numbers (indicator to commodities and Indian metal sector), India's  IIP numbers(12th Dec)  FOMC(12th Dec) & Inflation figures(14th Dec) should be watched closely. 
As I have several times in past mentioned that Indian market may remain strong as the structural picture of economy after the reforms initiatives tends to improve. 
Currently Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates for Nifty in FY14 at 427 may be re-rated 6%-8% i.e., 453-461. Hence on simple grounds if Nifty has to touch 15x on revised FY14E, keeping the positive sentiments and expected improved fundamentals across sectors which gives target of 6795(453x15) to 6915(461x15) based on the lower and higher EPS targets. Hence in the FY 2013-2014(i.e., 1st April 2013 onward Nifty should move to these levels.
Very rationally I expect the Nifty to touch 7000 levels Next year. Hence value buying could be done at these levels and added at every deep crack and fall.
All those who are still waiting for the correction should start buying, as it may happen that value buying in multibaggers could be missed. Hence select buying in large cap and mid-cap stocks should be made for period of 14-18 months investment horizon.

Certain stocks which look good are: HUL, ITC, SBI, L&T, RELIANCE, TATA STEEL in large cap and CERA SANITARY, UNITED BREWERIES, TRENT, KTK BANK, TTK PRESTIGE, L&T FIN HOLD. and many others.

TECHNICALLY:
After making a low of 5548.35 on 23rd November, the Nifty has given a a strong pull back rally of almost 7.2% in the last three weeks. Now Nifty is expected to face a stiff resistance in the band of 5950-6030. If Nifty breaches 6030, an upward rally might carry it to 6180 in the very short term. However a breach of 5810 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may go down and take support near 5540.

FOR THIS WEEK:
No trading range for the Nifty is 5800-5950
Buy CE5900 & CE6000 if Nifty is able to survive above 5950 for the target of 6030 & 6080 keeping Stop-Loss of 5800
Buy PE5800 & PE5700 if Nifty is breaks below 5800 for the target of 5730 & 5630 keeping Stop-Loss of 5950

FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO BUY FOR 45-60 DAYS HOLDING:

1. FDC(87.15): Buy for the target of 92-96-100-110+++++

2. JSW ENERGY(68.20): Buy for the target of 70-75-81+++++

3. JP INFRATECH(51.20): Buy for the target of 55-58-62+++++

4. PUNJ LLYOD(60.25): Buy for the target of 65-68-72+++++

5. EXIDE(148.00): Buy for the target of 155-160-165+++++

6. SUN TV(418.75):Buy for the target of 430-450-475+++++

7. GIC HOUSING FIN(125.40): Buy for the target of 140-150-160+++++

8. THEMIS(98.00): Buy for the target of 120-125-130+++++

9. AEGIS LOGISTICS(200.45): Buy for the target of 225-235+++++( NOTE: One of my close friends have recommended this stock around 160-165 levels, but now I am re-recommending, this could be a potential multi-bagger due FDI in retail story. Another close person have projected the target of 1500++ in years to come. Make your own analysis on this stock for buying).

10. TINPLATE(53.15):Buy for the target of 58-62-66-70-75 +++++.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.