Monday, January 30, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 30TH JANUARY 2012 TO 3RD FEBRUARY 2012

AS SAID IN MY PREVIOUS POSTING MARKET WENT NEAR 5230, HOWEVER CRR CUT BY RBI WAS A UNEXPECTED MOVE. HOWEVER WAS NOT SURPRISING AS BY CUTTING CRR BY 50bps RBI IS MANAGING THE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH IN THE MARKET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CORPORATE WORLD. RBI ALSO CUT THE GROWTH RATE PROJECTION TO 7.00% FROM 7.6%, A FORECAST IN OCTOBER 2011, IT SHOWS THAT RBI IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE GROWTH PROSPECTS AND GLOBAL SITUATION. ALSO INDIAN RUPPES SHEW A REMAKABLE RECOVERY AGAINST DOLLAR DUE TO HIGHER INFLOW OF FOREIGN FUNDs, WHICH ALSO PROVIDED A GOOD PUSH IN THE MARKETS. SENSEX CLOSED AT 17233.98 & NIFTY AT 5204.70.


GOING FORWARD, CUTTING IN REPO OR REVERSE-REPO WILL BE A WELCOME MOVE AS IT WILL HIKE THE CREDIT FLOW IN THE MARKET AND MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER CORPORATE PROFITS AND HIGHER EPS RESULTING IN RE-RATING OF STOCKS AND SECTORS AND OVERALL SENTIMENTS WILL IMPROVE. HENCE 15TH MARCH REMAINS VERY CRUCIAL IN THIS RESPECT. RBI MEET ON 15TH MARCH 2012 WILL BE A VERY VERY IMPORTANT IN MANY RESPECT. THIS WILL GUIDE THE MARKET FOR FUTURE AND PROBABLY IN THIS EXPECTATION THERE WILL BE BUYING AND SHORT SQUEEZE.


NOW CONSIDERING ALL THE FUNDAMENTALS , WHICH ARE IMPROVING DAY BY DAY THE ONLY EVENT TO WATCH IS STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BY MARCH 6TH 2012, THERE AFTER IF THE CONGRESS GETS THE WINNING SITUATION MAY LEAD TO PASSING OF THE VARIOUS BILLS LIKE MULTI-BRAND RETAIL, DTC AND OTHERS ECONOMIC REFORMS........


BEFORE THAT I AM EXPECTING THE MARKET TO BE BUOYANT AND GLOBAL MONEY MAY MORE POUR-IN RESULTING THE MARKETS TO RECOVER AND RECOVER IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
AS I ALREADY MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES, THAT BEST IS TO KEEP-ON INVESTING IN A STAGGERED MANNER WITHOUT GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHTAGE TO INDICES AND NOT TO REMAIN SHORT IN THE MARKET, I STILL SUGGEST MANY OF THE READERS "DON'T BE SHORT OR EXPECT FREE FALL OR BOTTOM TO START BUYING, KEEP ON INVESTING GRADUALLY IN BEST QUALITY SCRIPTS.


IN FEBRUARY I AM EXPECTING 5500-5700 IN NIFTY & IF THE BROAD RANGE OF 4950-5250 IS MAINTAINED. HENCE BUY ON EVERY DIPS AND ACCUMULATE STOCKS. DON'T BE SHORT BEFORE BUDGET. 


I EXPECT SOME VOLATILE , UNCERTAIN AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MOVES AFTER 5TH FEBRUARY 2012, BETTER TO BE REMAIN INVESTED IN SELECTIVE COUNTERS LIKE RALLIS, CANFINHOMES, INDIAN HOTELS, ETC.....................


NOW THE BROAD RANGE FOR THE MARKET IN TERMS OF NIFTY SHALL BE 4980-5250, HOWEVER THE NIFTY HAS RUN ALMOST 14% IN A MONTH NEEDS A REST AND CONSOLIDATION HENCE NIFTY MAY TEST 4980 IN THE SHORT TERM NOW, SAY IN THIS WEEK.......SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 5130 & RESISTANCE AT 5260. IF NIFTY BREAKS 5260 THEN 5320-5400 WILL BE ON THE SCREEN ON THE OTHER HAND  IF 5130 IS BROKEN ON THE LOWER SIDE NIFTY WILL GO FURTHER DOWN TO 5040 & 4880.
HENCE 5130-5260 IS NO TRADING ZONE. OPTION PLAYERS MAY PLAY ONLY ON BREAK OF THE EITHER SIDE OF NIFTY RANGE(5130-5260).


TO ME IT SEEMS THAT NIFTY MAY CORRECT OR CONSOLIDATE IN VERY VERY SHORT TERM , SAY FOR THIS WEEK.


WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW ??? IF NIFTY STARTS CORRECTING, WHAT TO DO???? INSTEAD OF EARNING FAST MONEY BY SHORTING ANY SPECIFIC COUNTER OR NIFTY YOU SHOULD KEEP CLOSE EYE ON THE COUNTERS WHICH I HAVE MENTIONED AND PICK THOSE SHARES AROUND THE INTERIM CORRECTIVE BOTTOMS.


WHAT PEOPLE USUALLY DO: I HAVE SEEN ALMOST EVERY ONE ASKING FOR THE SAME REPEATED QUESTIONS AND PONDERING OVER--" What Next?" "Where the Markets will move now?" & PEOPLE MAKE FALLACY AND SCUMMED TO IT.  MANY OF THE PEOPLE HAVE MISSED FROM 4750 TO 4950(AS SAID 2 WEEKS BACK) THEN MISSED 4950-5230(AS SAID IN THE LAST WEEK) AND NOW MISS ALL RALLIES IN THE FUTURE TOO, AS THE SAME MEN WILL TRY TO SEEK "SHORTING OPPORTUNITY" IN THE PREDICTED CORRECTION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  NOW THEY MAY ALSO SUCCEED IN IT, MAY EARN SOME ODD POINTS BUT THEY WILL LOOSE A BIG, WHY ????? SIMPLY BECAUSE THEIR FOCUS WILL BE ON NIFTY, OPTIONS, FUTURES, MARKET MOVES(Which they don't want to miss) & NOT ON THE QUALITY STOCKS, WHICH COULD FETCH THEM GOOD WEALTH AND MONEY WITHOUT ANY TENSION AND STRUGGLE.


HENCE ITS MY HUMBLE SUGGESTION TO ALL IS THAT DON'T TRY TO PLAY THE SHORT TERM SPECULATIVE GAME. YOU CAN NEVER MAKE BIG MONEY OR WEALTH IN IT, EVEN IF YOU MAKE SOME PROFITS........YOU WILL LOOSE IN LONG TERM.


STOCKS TO LOOK TO BUY FOR VERY SHORT TERM (20-30 DAYS):


1. DISH TV(63.35): BUY FOR A VERY SHORT TERM TARGET OF 80++++
2. KRBL(17.87): BUY IN DELIVERY TILL BUDGET. STOCK MAY RISE TO 28+++++
3. BATA(654.65): MUST BUY THIS STOCK. SOON YOU MAY FIND IT IN FOUR FIGURES..... BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 680-700+++
4. CANFIN HOMES(104.15): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 118-124+++++
5. EIH(90.20): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110++++
6. PRAJ IND(90.90): BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 99-103++++
7. APTECH(89.25):BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++ NOTE: THIS COUNTER IS IN TRADE TO TRADE CATEGORY .HENCE BUY ONLY WHEN YOU HAVE TO TAKE DELIVERY. I SEE A GOOD RISE AROUND BUDGET. 
8. RALLIS(127.10): BUY AND ADD THIS STOCK ON EVERY FALL YOU MAY FIND IT AROUND 140-150 SOON. MAY BE AROUND BUDGET...Must Buy+++++




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Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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