Monday, January 16, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 16TH JANUARY 2012 to 20th JANUARY 2012

NOTE: NOW THE BLOG WILL BE UPDATED ON EVERY SUNDAY NIGHT ON REGULAR BASIS


INDIAN MARKETS RECOVERED FROM THE  LOWS OF DECEMBER AND GRADUALLY CONTINUED THE RISE GETTING CUES BOTH FROM DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL FACTORS.  LED BY A BROAD BASED RECOVERY, INDIA'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION REBOUNDED IN NOVEMBER 2011. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 5.9% IN NOVEMBER FROM A YEAR EARLIER, AFTER DECLINING BY A REVISED 4.7% LAST MONTH. FOOD INFLATION REMAINED IN THE NEGATIVE ZONE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK. FOOD INFLATION STOOD AT 2.9% FOR THE WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 31ST, 2011 AGAINST 3.36% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK, MAINLY DUE TO THE BASE EFFECT.
NIFTY ENDED AT 4866.00 SENSEX ENDED AT 16154.62 


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS TO REMAIN VOLATILE IN THIS WEEK AS S&P  HAS DOWNGRADED THE CREDIT RATINGS OF FRANCE, ITALY AND SEVEN OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ON 13TH JANUARY, 2012, WHICH CLEARLY SIGNIFIES THAT THE EUROPEAN WOES MAY NOT BE OVER SOON AND EASILY.  RBI MEET FOR REVIEW OF CREDIT POLICY ON 24TH JANUARY WILL HOLD THE KEY IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT RBI WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE IIP AND INFLATION DATA BEFORE ANY FURTHER MOVE. THE CHANCES OF RATE CUT IN THIS POLICY MEET ARE VERY LESS. IN INDIAN CONTEXT ANY CORRECTION IN QUALITY STOCKS COULD BE USED MAKE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO. GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC FUND MANAGERS EXPECT MORE CORRECTION IN INDIAN MARKETS. SENSEX MAY TEST 13700 AND NIFTY AROUND 4000. BUT THE CORRECTION IN QUALITY STOCKS SHOULD BE USED TO BUILD A GOOD LONG TERM PORTFOLIO(18-30 MONTHS) IN A STAGGERED MANNER. IT MAY TAKE 7-8 MONTHS TO MAKE A BASE IN THE MARKETS. HENCE THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR 2012 SHALL BE GOOD FOR AN UP MOVE. 


FOR THIS WEEK: NIFTY IS FACING RESISTANCE AT 4920 AND TAKING SUPPORT AT 4800. NIFTY CLOSED AT 4866. HENCE THE NO TRADING ZONE FOR NIFTY IS 4800 TO 4920. ANY MOVE ABOVE 4920( FOR WHICH THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES) NIFTY WILL MOVE TO 4980-5050 AND SLIP BELOW 4800 WILL RESULT IN FALL TILL 4750 & 4640.
NOTE: CHARTS SHOW THAT NIFTY IS SET TO  MOVE HIGHER ABOVE 4920, HENCE A BULLISH VIEW SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4920 & 4800.


STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK: 
BUY CE4900 & CE5000: WHEN YOU FIND NIFTY MOVING AND/OR CLOSING ABOVE 4920 FOR THE TARGET OF 4980-5050 KEEPING 4800 AS STOP-LOSS.
BUY PE 4800 & PE4700: WHEN YOU FIND NIFTY MOVING AND/OR CLOSING BELOW 4800 FOR THE TARGET OF 4750-4640 KEEPING 4920 AS STOP-LOSS.


KIND ADVISE/SUGGESTION: DON'T ATTEMPT TO TRADE NIFTY OR NIFTY OPTIONS BETWEEN 4800-4920, ELSE YOU MAY LOOSE MONEY FOR TRADING THE VOLATILITY.


STOCKS: FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE ACCUMULATED FOR LONG TERM PORTFOLIO, HOWEVER BUYING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY IN STAGGERED MANNER IN 6-8 MONTHS BUYING PATTERN.
1. RALLIS
2. TRENT
3. GUJRAT FLOURO
4. PETRONET LNG
5. V-GUARD
6. S.KUMARS
7. ARVIND
8. COAL INDIA
9. VIP
10. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES.


FOLLOWING STOCKS COULD RISE IN THE SHORT TERM: 40-60 DAYS PERIOD DELIVERY:
1. NIRMA FOR THE TARGET OF 240++
2. GURAT FLUORO FOR THE TARGET OF 425-460++
3. PUNJAB CHEMICALS FOR THE TARGET OF 180+++
4. REDINGTON FOR THE TARGET OF 480+++
5. V-GUARD FOR THE TARGET OF 180+++
6. VIP INDUSTRIES FOR THE TARGET OF 120+++.


ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETARY POSITION SUGGEST THAT MARKETS WIL NOT BE GOOD THIS YEAR. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS. FEB & MARCH MONTHS ARE NOT VERY GOOD FOR THE MARKET PLAYERS. STAY AWAY FROM TRADING ACTIVITY. 




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.


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