Monday, November 28, 2011

BROAD MARKET VIEW & FOR THE WEEK 28TH NOVEMBER 2011 TO 2ND DECEMBER 2011

PAST WEEK WAS THE FOURTH WEEK TO COMPLETE A MONTH OF FALL STARTED IN OCTOBER LAST. SHORT COVERING RALLIES WERE SHORT LIVED AND THE STOCKS HAVE BEEN SEVERELY BEATEN TO THE CHEAPEST VALUATION. FEARS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ALSO WEIGHED ON MARKET AMID GLOOMY DATA FROM CHINA AND THE US. NIFTY FAILED TO CROSS 4800 ON THE SETTLEMENT DATE AND SENSEX SLIPPED BELOW 16000, SHEW THE CLEAR SIGNS OF WEAKNESS. 
THE MOST AWAITED FDI BILL TO INCREASE THE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO 51% IN MULTI BRAND RETAIL AND 100% IN SINGLE BRAND RETAIL HAS BEEN CLEARED BY CABINET WITH CERTAIN RIDERS., WHICH MAY HELP A GREAT IN COUNTRY'S DEVELOPMENT.


HOW THE FDI LIMIT WILL AFFECT ALL OF US?????


THE BILL SHALL INVITE CERTAIN MAJOR PLAYERS LIKE TESCO(UK), WALMART(US), CARREFORE(France), METRO AG(Germany), BEST BUY (U.S), AUCHAN(France), IKEA (Sweden), GAP(US), H&M(Sweden), TARGET(US), ETC TO SET UP THE MULTI-BRAND RETAIL SHOP UNDER ONE ROOF WHERE YOU MAY GET ALL POSSIBLE GOODS FROM NEEDLE TO AEROPLANE. THE GOODS WILL BE PURCHASED DIRECTLY FROM PRODUCER AND SOLD TO YOU WITH MINIMUM INTERMEDIARY COST, SAVING A LOT OF MONEY TO PEOPLE AND GIVING HIGHER REVENUES TO PRODUCERS. FOR EXAMPLE A TURMERIC PRODUCED BY FARMERS IS BOUGHT BY INTERMEDIARIES AROUND THE CHEAP RATE OF Rs.30-40 PER KG HOWEVER IT SOLD TO US AROUND Rs.200-230 PER KG. SEE THE HUGE MARGINS WHICH ONLY INTERMEDIARIES EARN, WHICH WILL NOW BE REDUCED TO GREAT EXTENT HENCE BRINGING DOWN THE PRICES OF COMMODITIES DRASTICALLY DOWN AND CREATION OF VALUES TO FARMERS. IT SHALL ALSO CREATE LOT OF EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE TO LAND. IT SHALL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND EQUALITY TO ALL. HENCE THE MOVE OF THE GOVERNMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE AND WELCOMING. 


OPPOSITION PARTIES LIKE BJP AND LEFT HAVE NO POINT TO CARE FOR THE NATION AND COMMON MAN. THESE PARTIES ARE MIS-LEADING THE MASS FOR THEIR VESTED INTEREST AND IN REALITY A POOR MAN AND HAWKER AND SMALL BUSINESS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED AT ALL.
THE STATES WHERE THERE IS NON-CONGRESS GOVERNMENT ARE ALSO OPPOSING TO INVOKE THE MASS AGAINST THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND CONGRESS PARTY, WHICH IS TOTALLY AGAINST THE GOODNESS AND WELFARE OF COMMON MAN. IN YEARS TO COME WE SHALL SEE THAT THIS MOVE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHALL GIVE MUCH MUCH VALUE CREATION TO COMMON MAN AND ECONOMY AS WHOLE. HENCE WE SHALL PRAY THE GOD THAT OUR NATION SHALL GET THE GOOD VALUES FOR THE COMMON MAN.


WHICH COMPANIES WILL BE BENEFITED BY THE MOVE:


IN MULTI-BRAND RETAIL: HUL, ITC, GODREJ CONSUMER, TRENT, PANTALOON, BHARTI, VISHAL RETAIL,   ETC IN MULTI BRAND RETAIL WILL GET MUCH VALUES IN MONTHS AND YEARS TO COME.


IN SINGLE BRAND RETAIL: GODREJ INDUSTRIES, LOVABLE, BATA, MIZA INTERNATIONAL, TTK PRESTIGE, JUBLIANT FOOD ETC ARE THE BEST PICK FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO.


COMING BACK TO THE MARKET FACTORS, INDIA'S FOOD INFLATION DECLINED TO 9.1% FOR THE WEEK ENDED NOVEMBER 12, 2011 AGAINST 10.63% FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE INDEX FOR FOOD ARTICLES GROUP DECLINED FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE WEEK. 


GOING FORWARD INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS LIKELY TO TAKE CUES FROM  THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UNFOLDING OF PARLIAMENT'S WINTER SESSION AS MANY KEY BILLS WILL BE TABLED IN FOR THE CLEARANCE AND NEWS FLOW FROM THE US AND EUROPE WILL ALSO GUIDE THE MARKET ACCORDINGLY. CEMENT AND AUTO STOCKS WILL BE IN FOCUS AS THEIR MONTHLY NUMBERS AND DISPATCH FIGURES WILL MAKE THE MOVE IN THESE SECTORS. THIS WILL ALSO SEE THE MAJOR DATAs LIKE INDIA's GDP DATA, EX-IM DATA FOR OCTOBER 2011 AND PMI DATA FOR NOVEMBER 2011.


TECHNICALLY DAILY CHART OF NIFTY SHOWS THAT IT HAS GIVEN A DOWNWARD RALLY OF ALMOST 14.07% IN THE LAST ONE MONTH. NOW THE MAJOR AND CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY LIES AT 4530-4520 LEVELS AND THIS LEVEL IS LIKELY TO BE HELD STRONGLY IN THE SHORT TERM. IF NIFTY BREAKS 4530 THEN IT MAY GO DOWN FURTHER TO 4400 AND THEN TO 4320 LEVELS IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER IF NIFTY MANAGES TO BREACH 4860 WOULD INDICATE REVERSAL OF CURRENT TREND AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY COULD TEST THE LEVEL OF 5000 ALSO. HENCE ALL TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP THE STOP-LOSS OF 4530-4520 FOR LONG POSITIONS. 


FOR THE COMING WEEK FIRST SUPPORT OF THE NIFTY IS AT 4640 AND RESISTANCE AT 4770. HENCE THE BAND 4640-4770 IS NO TRADE ZONE. 


BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE4800 & CE4900) IF NIFTY MANAGES TO MOVE AND CLOSE ABOVE 4770, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4640 FOR THE TARGET OF 4820-4860-4900-5000.


BUY NIFTY PUTS(PE4600 & PE 4500) IF NIFTY BREAKS DOWN AND CLOSES BELOW 4640, KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 4770 FOR THE TARGET OF 4575-4530-4500-4400.




ASTROLOGICALLY: AS ALREADY SAID THAT 30TH NOVEMBER AND 1ST DECEMBER ARE THE TWO DATES, WHICH SEE THE MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION OF PLANETARY WARS(GRAH YUDDH) AND ASHTAK-VARGA GIVES VITAL CLUES ON THESE DAYS THAT THERE WILL BE ONE SIDED MOVE IN BOTH, US, EUROPE AND INDIAN MARKETS. WE SHALL REMAIN CAUTIOUS OVER THESE DAYS.
THERE ARE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISK TILL 15TH OF DECEMBER AND ONE SHOULD NOT BE VERY MUCH LEVERAGED.


 NOTE: MARKETS SHALL SEE VOLATILE SESSIONS WITH DOWNWARD BIAS. HENCE CONCENTRATE ON PUTS AND SELECTIVE STOCKS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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