Monday, November 21, 2011

BROAD MARKET OUTLOOK & MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21ST NOVEMBER 2011 TO 25TH NOVEMBER 2011

IN PREVIOUS WEEK PASSED, INDIAN MARKET WITNESSED HUGE VOLATILITY WITH DECLINING INDICES AND FALLING STOCKS IN MID-CAP AND SMALL CAP CATEGORY. THIS ALL HAPPENED ON THE BACK OF ONGOING EURO CRISIS AND DOMESTIC GROWTH ISSUES. MANY POSITIONS WERE LIQUIDATED BY BIG OPERATORS AND HNIS ON HAUNTING & UNCERTAIN GROWTH CARD OF INDIAN INC., INDICATING FURTHER FALL IN MARGINS AND EPS. THIS IS CLEARLY INDICATING THAT MARKET IS MAKING IT SELF READY FOR SOME MORE CORRECTION IN DAYS & MONTHS TO COME.


VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DUE TO F&O EXPIRY ON NOV 24TH, 2011. SHARES OF EXPORTING ORIENTED COMPANIES MAY HIT HIGHER WHILE THOSE OF IMPORTERS MAY BE WORST HIT BY RISING INPUT COSTS DUE TO RUPEE VALUE DEPRECIATION. CABINET MAY SOON TAKE DECISION IN AVIATION SECTOR ON FDI/BUYING STAKE BY FOREIGN CAREERS IN LOCAL AIRLINES, WHICH MAY GIVE RELIEF TO THE BELEAGUERED AVIATION INDUSTRY.
DUE TO MUCH PRESSURE BY THE INDIAN CORPORATES FOR POLICY FORMATION THE GOVERNMENT MAY TRY HARD TO PASS THE PENDING BILLS IN THIS WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TRIGGER WHERE THE ALL EYES ARE WATCHING. HENCE AN IMPORTANT EVENT TO BE SEEN.


THE NIFTY HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE DOWNTREND FOR LAST ONE YEAR.  THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS AT AND AROUND 4700., WHICH IS A VERY CRUCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET. IF 4700 IS BROKEN THEN WE WILL SEE HUGE SELLING TILL 4500-4360 IN THE SHORT TERM, HOWEVER AS NIFTY IS OVERSOLD IN TECHNICAL CHARTS, A BOUNCE BACK OR CORRECTIVE RALLY TILL 5200-5240 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 


FOR THIS WEEK SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY LIES AT 4820 AND RESISTANCE AT 5085, IF NIFTY BREAKS 4820 IT MAY FURTHER GO DOWN TO 4760 AND THEN TO 4700, HOWEVER IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5085-5090 THEN 5150-5230 WOULD BECOME THE NEXT TARGET. 


HENCE OPTION PLAYERS SHALL FOCUS ON THE TWO LEVELS, IF THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY, 4820 & 5085, ON BREAK OF EITHER BUY THE OPTIONS (DEC SERIES) ACCORDINGLY. IF 4820 IS BROKEN THEN BUY PE4800 & PE 4700 ON THE OTHER HAND NIFTY STARTS MOVING ABOVE 5085 THEN BUY CE5100 & CE5200.
NOVEMBER OPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE TRADED AS THE DECEMBER OPTIONS MAY GIVE MUCH VOLATILITY AND EXITS ROUTES, WHICH NOVEMBER OPTIONS SHALL NOT GIVE, THAT'S WHY ITS CHEAP IN COMPARISON OF DECEMBER OPTIONS.


ASTROLOGICALLY: MARKETS VERY VERY POOR FROM 15TH NOV 2011 TO 12TH DECEMBER 2011, WITH SOME RELIEF RALLIES FROM TIME TO TIME.
HENCE WE SUGGEST BUYING OF PUTS ON EVERY RISE. NOTE THAT IN THIS WEEK MARKET SHALL BE POOR ON 21ST, 22ND, 23RD NOV. WHERE THERE WILL BE SHARP CUTS FROM NOON OF 21ST AND ON 22ND NOV. HENCE ONE SHOULD PREFER  BUY PUTS(PE).


THERE ARE 30% CHANCE THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. KINDLY CONSIDER THE ADVISE OF YOUR BROKER, CONSULTANT OR ADVISER ETC BEFORE ACTING ON MY  VIEWS.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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