Sunday, October 16, 2011

MARKETS AND YOUR INVESTMENT: A PERSPECTIVE

SO FAR WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THE WEAK MARKETS SINCE LAST DEEPAVALI DUE TO MANY GLOBAL AS WELL AS DOMESTIC REASONS. HOWEVER THE APATHY BY THE GOVERNMENT IN PLANNING AND POLICY LAGGARD, CONTINUOUS INCREASE OF INTEREST RATES BY RBI, RISING COMMODITY PRICES GLOBALLY, FINANCIAL CRISIS DUE TO RISING SOVEREIGN DEBT ESPECIALLY IN EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES, RISING DOMESTIC INFLATION, ETC ARE THE MANY REASONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE TO THE GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS INCLUDING INDIA. EVERY WEEK AND MONTH STARTS WITH A NEW HOPE THAT SOONER THE THINGS WILL SETTLE AND SECULAR BULL MARKET WILL RE-START IN INDIA. BULLS HAVE BEEN BAFFLING FOR LAST 11 MONTHS ON HOPES OF NEW HIGHS BUT MARKETS HAVE DISAPPOINTED ALL. ITS NOT THAT THE BEARS HAVE MADE MONEY BUT ALL HAVE LOST THE VALUE OF INVESTMENTS GRADUALLY OVER THIS PERIOD.  ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE MARKETS HAVE TENDENCY AND HISTORY OF BEHAVING IN THE SIMILAR PATTERN AS THEY HAVE BEEN, HOWEVER DYNAMISM ADDS NEW FACES TO THE OLD PROBLEMS


SO WHAT ONE CAN DO IF THE SAME THINGS CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE MONTHS OR YEARS?????????


HERE COMES THE BASIC INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES, POLICIES AND DISCIPLINE TO PLAY VITAL ROLE IN YOUR DECISION MAKING AND PROFITABLE INVESTING. 
1. ITS NOT VERY MUCH FRUITFUL TO SEE INDEX AND INVEST ON ITS ANALOGY. There are several stocks which have been rising for last 1 year. Take Exapmle of GUJRAT FLOURO. It was around Rs.160 eleven months back, however it has risen to 560 in this period and currently trading at 538. I have mentioned buying in this stock around 216-220-230-240(search my previous postings) for the target of 500-700-1000++ in 12 to 18 months(though I maintain my view on this).


Similarly RALLIS INDIA. It was around 120-130 a year back and has been constantly rising. I maintain my view of 250 in short term and 500++ in the medium to long term. A very good company of TATA Group. 


On the other hand there are many other companies which have lost their market cap and value very significantly. Many companies suggest by me have not worked well in the last 11 months. Take example of SKUMAR NATION. I have suggested this company when it was trading around 85-90 with a price target of 150++. Unfortunately the company is trading around 40. Similarly ORCHID CHEM was being suggested with huge targets when it was around 280-300, however its is currently half of its value. 


These stocks were suggested on the basis that markets will move higher and so will the stocks. However few stocks under-perform and others out-perform. Hence its not wise to invest on the basis of Indices. 
LEARNING: JUST KEEP ON INVESTING IRRESPECTIVE OF INDEX AND ITS MOVEMENT. JUST ADD STOCKS, ON EVERY FALL OF 10% OR SO.


2. NEVER PUT YOUR MONEY IN A SINGLE TAKE: Money must be invested gradually on regularly interval rather than in just a single take. Many of my followers buy in a single stroke in a greed of getting more profits making themselves nervous and baffling when the prices correct. Either they have no fresh money to buy or make leveraged position, which is very very negative and not meant for Investor. Now an Investor turns to a short term trader and looses money. 
LEARNING: HENCE YOU SHOULD INVEST SOME REGULAR MONEY, WHEN YOU SEE AN OPPORTUNITY IN THE STOCK, RATHER THAN OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET. PUT HUGE SUM ONLY WHEN YOU GET OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET(SAY ON 15%-20% CUT)


3. STOP TRADING AND EXPECTING GAINS IN THE SHORT TERM: The greatest limitation we all have is to think about the short term trading, speculation, day-trading, options, futures, derivatives, etc., etc., ....... These are killers. They eat your money and investment. TRADING IS BASICALLY ILLUSION. No one CAN MAKE WEALTH  if he or she is in job of continuous trading habit. The big money is always made in investment of longer duration and very less churning, may be one or two in a year. I know many of my close friends, relatives, followers, who have bought many stocks on my suggestion and view, made little money or no money as they have traded in the stocks, which are meant for investment. They were either left with some marginal profits and few stocks of outperforming stocks, any many under-performing stocks and losses. 
LEARNING: AVOID SEARCHING STOCKS TO GAIN IN SHORT TERM OR ANY MEANS WHICH MAY GIVE PROFITS. SEARCH FOR STOCKS WHICH COULD GIVE YOU WEALTH OVER LONGER PERIOD. AVOID WORKING ON TECHNICAL CALLS, TIPS, INFORMATION,  RATHER GO WITH RELIABLE MARKET ANALYSTS AND OWN RESEARCH WORK.


FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOK GOOD FOR A PERIOD OF 12-18-24 MONTHS:


1. RALLIS(174.00): STILL UNDERVALUED IN TERMS OF POTENTIALS. MY TARGET IS 500+++ WITH MINIMAL DOWN SIDE RISK. EVERY DIP WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY.


2. ITC(205.10): THIS STOCK WILL MAKE HUGE WEALTH FOR ITS INVESTORS. MY TARGET IS 450++++ IN 18-24 MONTHS.


3. PETRONET LNG(155.90): BUY THIS STOCK FOR AT LEAST 2-3 YEARS PERSPECTIVE. STOCK MAY OUTPERFORM THE MARKET. ANALYSTS PROJECT THE TARGET OF 400+++.


4. L&T(1407.80): THIS STOCK WILL MAKE HUGE WEALTH FOR ITS INVESTORS. MY TARGET IS 4500++ IN 18-24 MONTHS.


5. TITAN IND(218.10) & 6.GITANJALI GEMS(364.65): STILL UNDERVALUED IN TERMS OF POTENTIALS. MY TARGET FOR BOTH IS 500+++ WITH MINIMAL DOWN SIDE RISK. EVERY DIP WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY. 


7. CANFIN HOME(97.10): BUY THIS STOCK AND ADD ON EVERY DIP. TARGET IS AROUND 200-250++++ IN 18-24 MONTHS. THIS IS VERY CHEAP STOCK AVAILABLE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY STRONG. MUST BUY IN PORTFOLIO. MINIMAL OR NO DOWN SIDE RISK.


8. SHALIMAR PAINTS(503.65): BUY THIS STOCK TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHS. INVESTORS MAY GAIN HUGE ON THIS STOCK AS IT WILL UNVEIL HUGE VALUE IN TIME TO COME. DON'T FORGET TO PAINT YOUR HOUSE WITH SHALIMAR PAINTS IN THIS FESTIVE SEASON. MY TARGET IS AROUND 1200+++.


9. GUJRAT FLOURO(538.10): BUY THIS STOCK TO NEVER SELL. GOLD MINE!!!!!!!! MAY GIVE HUGE VALUE GOING FORWARD. MY 1ST TARGET IS AROUND 1000++.


10. PILANI INVESTMENT(1700-2000): CURRENTLY LISTED IN DELHI STOCK EXCHANGE, THIS SHARE WILL BE LISTED IN BSE/NSE ON DEEPAVALI MUHURT TRADING AROUND 2500-3000, WHICH MAY SEE HUGE UNLOCK IN VALUE FOR ITS INVESTORS. A BIRLA GROUP COMPANY HAS STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND MAY FETCH 7500-10000+++ FOR ITS INVESTORS. BUY & HOLD.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.


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