Tuesday, October 11, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 11TH OCTOBER 2011

ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES, WE SAW A STRONG MARKET YESTERDAY, WHERE HEAVY WEIGHTS LIKE RELIANCE, ONGC, INFOSYS PARTICIPATED AND INDICES SAW ANOTHER SHORT COVERING RALLY. NIFTY ENDED AT 4979.60, UP BY 91.55 POINTS AND SENSEX CLOSED AT 16557.23, UP BY 324.69 POINTS. MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE AND BOTH MID-CAP & SMALL-CAP INDICES WERE UP BY 1.36% & 0.97% RESPECTIVELY.


GOING FORWARD, Q2 RESULTS, WHERE PERFORMANCE AND GUIDANCE BY THE INDIAN CORPORATES, SHALL GUIDE THE FUTURE COURSE OF MARKET. INFOSYS WILL DELIVER ITS RESULT ON 12TH OCT, WEDNESDAY, ALSO THE AUGUST IIP DATA ON 12TH OCTOBER, INFLATION NUMBERS ON 14TH OCTOBER, WILL PROVIDE VITAL CUES FOR THE RBI's  ACTION IN HALF YEAR MONETARY POLICY REVIEW, SCHEDULED ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2011.
ALSO THE GLOBAL CUES SHALL KEEP ON PLAYING ON THE SWINGS OF MARKET FROM TIME TO TIME AS PER IMPORTANCE AND SIGNIFICANCE. 
ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY POSITIVE NEWS DOMESTICALLY WILL PROVIDE THE SHORT TERM SUPPORT AND PUSH TO THE MARKET, GLOBAL CUES, WHICH REMAINS THE PRIME FOCUS FOR FIIs, MAY WIPE OFF THE SHORT LIVED CHEER, IF ANY. 
ANALYST BELIEVE THAT THERE REMAINS THE DOWN SIDE RISK IN THE MARKET AND RALLY IN NIFTY FOR LAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS SHALL BE SHORT LIVED AND INDICES MAY SINK ON ANY FRESH GLOBAL TREMORS. HENCE CAUTION IS ADVISED IN THE NEAR TERM.


COMING ON TECHNICALS: NIFTY HAS MADE A GAP BETWEEN 5060 AND 5110 ON 22ND SEPTEMBER, 2011. AS SAID YESTERDAY, IF NIFTY MANAGES TO CLOSE ABOVE 4950 THERE COULD BE 200 POINTS MOVE, NIFTY CLOSED AT 4979.60 SHOWS THAT THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES THAT NIFTY MAY ATTEMPT TO FILL THE GAP AND MOVE HIGHER UP TO 5110. ANY LONG CREATED IN NIFTY/STOCKS SHOULD BE HELD WITH THE STRICT STOP-LOSS OF 4800. BREACH OF 4800 ON THE DOWN SIDE WILL TERMINATE THE CURRENT UP-SWING AND THEN NIFTY MAY RETEST 4750-4650 IN NO TIME, AS THE SENTIMENT IS CAUTIOUS.


STRATEGY: BUY NIFTY CALLS (CE4900 & CE5000) KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4800 OR ELSE WAIT FOR NIFTY TO MOVE HIGHER AROUND 5100-5110, TO BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE5100 & PE5000), IN ANTICIPATION OF FALL FROM THESE LEVELS KEEPING THE STOP-LOSS OF 5170 ON CLOSING BASIS.


FOR TODAY: NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4940  AND RESISTANCE AT 5020. BREAK OF 4940 SHALL FORCE NIFTY TO TEST 4900 & 4860.  HOWEVER SUSTENANCE ABOVE 5020 SHALL TAKE NIFTY TO 5070-5110.
IN THIS MANNER: 4940-5020 IS NO TRADING ZONE, BUY CE5000 & CE5100 IF NIFTY MOVES ABOVE 5020 KEEPING 4940 AS STOP-LOSS AND BUY PE5000 & PE4900 IF NIFTY BREAKS 4940, KEEPING 5020 AS STOP-LOSS.


I DON'T CONSIDER FIT TO GIVE ANY STOCK SPECIFIC CALL TODAY.


ASTROLOGICALLY: I SEE A MAJOR CHAOTIC AND POOR DAYS IN THE WORLD MARKETS ON 13TH, 17TH AND LAST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER, BETWEEN 20TH-30TH OCTOBER . 
PERSONALLY, I AM BEARISH ON INDICES.


THERE ARE 30% CHANCES THAT I MAY GO WRONG IN THE ABOVE ASTROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. HENCE CONSULT THE ELIGIBLE, SUITABLE AND  COMPETENT PERSON, OR USE YOUR OWN WISDOM BEFORE ACTING ON MY VIEWS.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.