WEEKLY OUTLOOK 9TH MAY TO 13TH MAY

 AFTER THE 50 bps RATE HIKE BY RBI IN THE CREDIT POLICY AGAINST THE ANTICIPATED HIKE OF 25bps MARKET WITNESSED A HUGE SELL-OFF BUT RECOVERED TOWARDS THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. THE POLICY INDICATED  INFLATION AS A CRUCIAL THREAT THAT POSE SIGNIFICANT RISK TO FUTURE GROWTH AND THEREFORE WAS GIVEN PRECEDENCE OVER GROWTH BY THE RBI GOVERNOR.

THE WEEK WAS A BUSY WEEK WITH OTHER ECONOMIC DATA AND OUTLOOK. SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH ANTICIPATION AT 8% AGAINST ESTIMATED GROWTH IN FY11, DAMPENED THE MARKET SENTIMENTS. ADDING TO IT WAS ENDURED SELLING BY FIIs THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FOREIGN INVESTORS HAVE SUCKED OUT FUNS TO THE TUNE OF 

 Rs. 3866.66 CRORES IN THE MONTH OF MAY 2011.

AFTER THE INTENSE FALL FOR 9 TRADING SESSIONS, MARKET MAY RECUPERATE SOME OF ITS LOSSES  ON FALLING CRUDE AND OTHER COMMODITY PRICES THAT WERE ON UPSWING IN THE RECENT PAST. COOLING COMMODITY PRICES MAY PROBABLY PROVIDE BREATHER TO THE PRESENTLY RISING INFLATION THAT HAS BEEN AILING THE MARKETS.

MARKET WOULD LOOK FORWARD FOR THE IIP DATA FOR THE MARCH MONTH AND THE MONTHLY WPI DATA IN THE WEEK AHEAD THAT ARE DUE ON 12TH MAY & 13TH MAY RESPECTIVELY. MARKET IS ALSO LOOKING FORWARD TO THE EGoM MEET ON FUEL HIKE ON 11TH MAY 2011. THEY WOULD NOT JUST BE DISCUSSING THE DIESEL PRICES , BUT OVERALL HEALTH OF THE OIL MARKETING COMPANIES. AS THE STATE ELECTIONS WILL BE COMING TO END ON  THE 10TH MAY, MEETING OF EGoM ON 11TH MAY INDICATES SOME IMPORTANT DECISIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE ON THE DAY.DIESEL PRICES MAY GET DE-REGULATED ALONG WITH THE HIKE IN PETROL. KEEP EYE ON OIL MARKETING COMPANIES, WHICH MAY HAVE STILL 4%-7% UP SIDE FROM HERE.

AS CRUDE AND OTHER METAL PRICES INCLUDING GOLD AND SILVER, WHICH HAS CRACKED HEAVILY, MARKET WILL

BE WATCHING THE BEHAVIOR OF CRUDE AND SILVER. CRUDE MAY COME DOWN TO $85, WHICH WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR THE MARKETS. LOWER CRUDE PRICES & GOOD MONSOON MAY  BRING THE INFLATION DOWN MAKING THE INTEREST RATE PEAK OUT , ATTRACTING THE FIIs AND FOREIGN FUNDS, WHICH MAY PREVENT THE NIFTY TO GO BELOW 5200 IN THE WEEKS TO COME. 

THE OUTLOOK OF THE MARKET HENCE REMAINS CAUTIOUS. ANY FURTHER DROP IN THE CRUDE & COMMODITY PRICES, WHICH MAY REMAIN LOWER GOING FORWARD AND THE IMPORTANT IIP DATA MAY PREVENT THE NIFTY TO FALL BELOW 5350-5200 ZONE. HENCE MARKET WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UP FROM THE OVER SOLD POSITIONS. NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5630-5680. THE NEW RANGE OF THE MARKET SHALL BE 5200-5700. 

ITS SUGGESTED TO LOOK FOR THE COUNTERS/SCRIPTS SUGGESTED BELOW FOR BUYING ON FALL TO HOLD FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM:

S KUMAR  TARGET 85-100++

ARVIND MILLS TARGET 100-110++++

V-GUARD TARGET 225-300+++

RELIANCE IND TARGET 1020-1050++++

VIP IND TARGET 750-800+++++


ALOK INDUSTRIES TARGET 35-50+++


TIMKEN TARGET 250-320++++++


CAMLIN TARGET 85-100+++++(VERY BULLISH )


PIRAMAL GLASS TARGET 150-225+++++


INGERSOLL RAND ATRGET 600-750+++ (DELISTING NEWS TO COME)


L.I.C HOUSING FIN TARGET 250-300+++


SURAJ DIAMOND TGT 85-100++++++ (VERY GOOD BUYING FOR MEDIUM TERM)

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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