MARKET VIEW FOR 29TH APRIL 2011

NIFTY ENDED AT 5785.45 ON THE EXPIRY DAY NEGLECTING THE GLOBAL CUES AND GOOD RESULT FROM ICICI BANK.  NO FRESH SHORTING WAS SEEN AT 5800 SHOWS THAT MARKET MAY NOT FALL MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MARKET IS ALSO PRICING THE POSSIBLE HIKE IN REPO, REVERSE REPO & CRR HIKE TO THE TUNE OF 25bps ON MAY 3RD CREDIT POLICY OF RBI. HENCE THE RANGE OF THE MARKET SHALL BE 5700-5900. NOW AFTER THE POLICY IS OUT, THE MARKET MAY TAKE FRESH DIRECTION PROBABLY TOWARDS 5950 AND HIGHER.

TODAY IF THE MARKET OPEN WEAK , ONE CAN BUY NIFTY OR NIFTY CALL, CE5800, CE5900, WITH THE STOPL LOSS BROADLY OF 5680, FOR MAY SERIES.

NOW ONLY A DECISIVE CLOSING BELOW 5750-5700 WILL DANGER THE UP TREND AND THE BIAS OF THE MARKET WILL CHANGE TO DOWN WARDS, WHICH WILL BE CONFIRMED IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5680. HENCE BROADLY ALL LONGS SHOULD BE MADE OR KEPT WITH A STOP LOSS OF 5680, ON CLOSING BASIS.

IF THE CRUDE PRICES KEEP ON RISING, WITH INFLATION FIGURE REMAINS HIGH AND RBI USES HAWKISH LANGUAGE TO CONTAIN INFLATION AND HIKES THE RATE(S) MORE THAN 25bps,  OR THERE IS ANY POLITICAL INSTABILITY, GEO-POLITICAL UNREST AND CRUDE RISES TO $150, THE MARKET SHALL NOT WITNESS ANY SHARP DOWN FALL.

NOW FOR NEXT 10-15 DAYS ARE VERY CRUCIAL, AS THERE WILL BE RISING VOLATILITY WITH SKEPTICISM OF WHAT LIES AHEAD TO TRIGGER THE MARKET HIGHER. NOW IF THE MARKET FAILS TO MOVE UP AFTER THE RBI CREDIT POLICY ON 3RD MAY, CERTAINLY IT WILL NOT SUSTAIN HERE AND THEN HEAD SOUTH WARDS. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF GOING DOWN BELOW 5700 ARE DIM OR LESS AND ANTICIPATING THE PEAKING OUT OF INTEREST RATE CYCLE, COOLING DOWN OF INFLATION AND STABLE CRUDE PRICES ALONG WITH GOOD MONSOON EXPECTATION SHALL BOOST THE SENTIMENT AND FIIs BUYING AND INFLOW OF FUNDS WILL CONTINUE.

HENCE THE BEST STRATEGY WILL BE BUYING AT THE LOWER LEVEL (5700-5750-5770-5800) A GOOD IDEA FOR THE SHORT TERM. 

FOLLOWING STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT IN DELIVERY FOR THE NEXT 45-60 DAYS:  

1. TITAN INDUSTRIES(4118): BUY THIS STOCK IN CASH/FUTURE PERIOD OF 60 DAYS FOR A TARGET OF 5000+++. BUY ON EVERY FALL.

2. EXIDE(150.45): BUY THIS STOCK IN DELIVERY FOR THE TARGET OF 180-190++ IN A MONTH OR TWO.

3. TVS MOTOR(59.75): BUY THIS STOCK IN BOTH TRADING & INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO. SHORT TERM TRADING TARGET OF 70 AND LONG TERM TARGET OF 120++++

4. OBEROI  REALITY(261.50): FORGET DLF, FORGET HDIL AND FORGET ALL OTHER REALITY STOCKS, BUY THIS NUMBER ONE REALITY STOCK FOR LONG TERM PORTFOLIO. STRONG BALANCE SHEET, CASH RICH COMPANY MY GROW AT THE RATE OF 40%p.a. BUY FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 290 AND LONG TERM TARGET OF 500+++. VERY GOOD LONG TERM PLAY. MUST BUY FOR REALITY LOVERS.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.