Sunday, September 23, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 24TH SEPTEMBER 2012 TO 28TH SEPTEMBER 2012

In last week Indian Capital Market has seen significant events which have helped the Indices to rise in triple digit where Sensex closed gaining almost 4.06% at 18752.83 and Nifty closed at 5691.15 with the gains of almost 4.70% over last week. The positive sentiment was built by the Governments stance to stick with the reforms, however after Sri Mulaym Singh's extending support to the Center has been the sigh of relief for all investing community as arrogant Mamta Di has  pulled the leg of the center. 

Opposition and parties with vested interest have failed to observe the national interest. All the reforms introduced by Dr. Manmohan Singh are very very healthy for India in long run. Even they need to do more than this, but its bad luck that we do not have a healthy opposition. If the growth of the country is hampered, its not because of the policies of the Government but mainly due to incompetent and disgusting Opposition and leaders who have nothing more than their own interest.

Going forward Indian rupee may see some depreciation( or fall in value in terms of other currencies because of reducing withhold tax from 20% to 5% on overseas borrowing. Also even if we don't receive any big jolt from political parties either opposition or ally to the center, the rally in Indian bourses may continue to till 5800-5850 only. However as and when index proceeds towards 5800 selling pressure will be observed. The operators on Indices (like FIIs and DIIs) may be willing to book profits around 5800-5850. Hence its advisable to book in Index long position around 5750-5780. Stock specific approach will be very helpful in making money in short and medium term. 

Taking note from some of the leading technical analysts-- "Nifty has risen almost 9.68% from the lows made on 5215.60 (September, 6th) in just 15 days. Now the resistance of the Nifty is around 5730. If Nifty is able to sustain above 5730 levels then it might rally to 5820 & 5900 on the other hand only a breach of 5500 on the down side may result in end of current rally and  in that case Nifty may test 5200 level again.. Hence it will be advisable to to book out any long position on Nifty around 5730-50 levels and sit aside or stock specific approach could be followed. 

FOR THIS WEEK: Index players must keep in mind that no trade zone for Nifty is 5620-5730. 

1. Go long in Index if Nifty moves above 5730, maintaining stop-loss of 5620 for the target of 5820 & 5900.

2. Go short in Index if Nifty breaches below 5620 for the target of 5560 and 5500, keeping 5730 as stop-loss.

Note: Option players may buy the nearest in-the-money call or put as and and when No Trading Zone is broken on either side.

STOCKS TO BUY IN DELIVERY FOR 45-60 DAYS:

1. GUJRAT FLUORO(378.80): Buy for the target of 390-420-450+++(May move to 550+++ by next few months, just a news from a HNI)

2.  ALEMBIC PHARMA(71.05): Buy for the target of 78-85-88+++++

3. EXIDE(148.95): Buy for the target of 160-165++

4. LIC HOUSING FIN(267.90): Buy for the target of 280-300+++

5. PIDILITE(203.55): Buy for the target of 225-250+++



Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.