Monday, July 16, 2012

MARKET VIEW FOR THE WEEK 16TH JULY 2012 TO 20TH JULY 2012

INDIAN EQUITY MARKET DECLINED LAST WEEK DUE TO CONCERNS OVER DEFICIENT MONSOON, WEAK EARNINGS (POOR SENTIMENT DUE TO INFOSYS RESULTS BELOW EXPECTATION) &  ALACK OF POSITIVE GLOBAL SENTIMENT LED THE WEEK TO CLOSE LOWER BY 208 POINTS IN SENSEX AT 17213.70 & BY 90 POINTS IN NIFTY AT 5227.25 ON WEEKLY BASIS. IIP IMPROVED TO 2.4% YoY IN MAY 2012 AGAINST -0.90% LAST MONTH.


GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE TRADING IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS DESPITE POORER THAN EXPECTED EARNINGS OUTLOOK FROM INFOSYS. INITIAL SIGNALS ON THE EARNINGS FRONT DEPICT THE MIXED SIGNS. THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT AS THERE IS CRUCIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THE OUTCOME OF WHICH WILL SHOW THE STRENGTH OF UPA GOVERNMENT. RESULTS OF COMPANIES LIKE RELIANCE, AXIS BANK, BAJAJ AUTO, HERO, ETC WILL BE THE KEY TO WATCH. AS SAID SEVERAL TIMES IN PAST STILL THE VIEW OF BUY ON DIPS AND HOLD IS INTACT. IN THE CURRENT CORRECTION MARKETS COULD TOUCH 5160-5100 WHICH WILL BE THE GOOD LEVEL TO BUY.  STOCKS LIKE SBI, L&T, ITC, CASTROL, EXIDE, HDFC, BLUE STAR ETC ARE GOOD FOR PORTFOLIO FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM.


TECHNICALLY THE DAILY CHART OF NIFTY IS SHOWING THAT IT HAS GIVEN A PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 12% IN LAST ONE MONTH. NOW NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A RANGE OF 5160 AND 5400 IN THE SHORT TERM. IF NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 5400 AN UPWARD RALLY MIGHT CARRY IT TO 5520 AND THEN 5630 IN THE EXTREME SHORT TERM. HOWEVER A BREACH OF 5160 WOULD INDICATE THE END OF CURRENT RALLY AND IN THAT CASE NIFTY MAY TEST 5100-5040. HENCE THOSE HOLDING LONGS( IN TRADING A/C) COULD HOLD WITH A STOP-LOSS OF 5160.


OPTION PLAY FOR SPECULATORS:
BUY NIFTY CE5300 & CE5400 IF NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE 5300 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5190 FOR THE TARGET OF 5350-5400
BUY NIFTY PE5200 & PE5100 IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5190 KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 5300 FOR THE TARGET OF 5160-5100.


FOLLOWING STOCKS ARE GOOD TO BUY FOR 45-60 DAYS INVESTMENT:


1. SINTEX(66.65): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 72-76-78+++(In trading A/c can use 62 as stop-loss),
2. TATA STEEL(425.65): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 450-460+++(In trading A/c can use 410 as stop-loss),
3. INDIA GLYCOL(132.30): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 155-160+++,
4. DISHMAN PHARMA(63.15): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 80-90+++
5. MC-DOWELL(775.10): BUY FOR THE TARGET OF 830-860+++. BUY ON EVERY DIPS.




Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 

This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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