Tuesday, March 15, 2011

MARKET VIEW FOR 16TH MARCH 2011

JAPAN TOOK THE TOLL TODAY AND CORRECTED AROUND 12% FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER ASIAN MARKETS, WHICH WERE MODERATELY DOWN BETWEEN 1.5% TO 3.0%. COMMODITIES AND EUROPEAN & AMERICAN MARKETS ALSO FELL. THERE WAS EXTREME PESSIMISM IN THE MARKET HOWEVER INDIAN MARKETS RELATIVELY OUTPERFORMED.


AFTER THE INITIAL GAP DOWN OPENING AND KNEE JERK REACTION ONE TIME DURING THE DAY NIFTY MANAGED TO GO AROUND 5500 (5497.85) FROM THE BOTTOM OF 5373 HOWEVER CORRECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY TO CLOSE AROUND 5449.50,WHICH IS QUITE ENCOURAGING FOR THE BULLS. THE MOST STRIKING PART OF THIS RECOVERY WAS THAT IT WAS LED BY RELIANCE. STRENGTH IN RELIANCE INDUSTRIES SHOWS THAT THE MARKET IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL WEAKNESS AND PARTICIPANTS SEE 5400 AS A STRONG SUPPORT IN NIFTY. NOW 5600-5650 SHALL ACT AS A MAJOR RESISTANCE AND CROSSOVER ABOVE 5600-5650 SHALL SEE SHARP RISE TO 5700-5800 LEVELS. HOWEVER ANY CLOSE BELOW 5400 SHALL BE DEATH KNELL FOR THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM. AS ALREADY ALERTED 5400-5600 IS NO TRADING ZONE AND ONE SHOULD NOT PARTICIPATE ACTIVELY IN THE MARKET BETWEEN THIS RANGE.


ONCE AGAIN IT IS REITERATED, THAT THIS MARKET IS IN THE BEAR PHASE AND WILL CORRECT SIGNIFICANTLY ANY TIME BY NEXT 2-3 MONTHS HENCE THOSE WHO WISH TO INVEST FOR LONG TERM MUST WAIT TO GET THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY AROUND 5000 OR BELOW.


AS ALREADY CAUTIONED THAT PERIOD BETWEEN 7TH MARCH TO 18TH MARCH IS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE SHARE MARKET, SEE THE IMPACT THAT ASIA, AMERICA, EUROPE ARE IN DEEP RED.INDIA IS RESILIENT TO THE GLOBAL TURMOIL DUE TO FALLING CRUDE, METAL AND RUBBER PRICES AND GOOD ADVANCE TAX NUMBERS. HENCE ANY SIGN OF STABILITY IN THE COMMODITY MARKET AND RISE IN CRUDE AND METAL PRICES MAY TRIGGER THE SHARPER CORRECTION IN DAYS TO COME.


CRUDE PRICE THOUGH FALLING WILL RISE SHARPLY AFTER THE STABILITY AND DEMAND FROM JAPAN WHICH SHALL BE NEGATIVE FOR THE INDIAN MARKETS. ALSO THE CORPORATE EARNING FIGURES SHALL GUIDE THE MARKET AFTER THE RBI MEET ON 17TH MARCH. MARKET IS PRICING IN THE RISE IN RATES BY 25bps TO 50bps.


ASTROLOGICALLY: TODAY MARKET SHALL OPEN WITH A GAP DOWN AND REMAIN WEAK FOR THE FULL DAY. RANGE FOR THE MARKET SHALL BE 5400-5518.ONE SHOULD GO LONG ABOVE 5500 IN NIFTY WITH A DEEP STOP LOSS OF 5370.


 FOLLOWING STOCKS LOOKS GOOD TO WATCH AND TRADE TODAYON THE LONG SIDE:


1. CEAT(106.40): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++  


2. J.K.TYRE(96): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 104-110++


3. VIP IND(590.25): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 630-645++


4. RCOM(101): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 110-115++


5. GAIL(340.65): LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 360-375++


6. YES BK(265.65):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 290-300++


7. INDSIND BK(244.50):LOOK TO BUY ON FALL FOR THE SHORT TERM TARGET OF 265-70+






SHORTING COULD BE DONE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTERS:


1. JSW STEEL (909.05): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 870-850


2. TATA MOTORS(1142.10): LOOKS WEAK IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TARGET OF 1080-1050



Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Disclaimer: 
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

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