LAST WEEK INDIAN STOCK MARKET ENDED HIGHER AFTER TOUCHING THE 28-MONTHS LOW INDICES. THE WEAKNESS IN THE STOCKS PERSIST AS MANY OF THEM ARE NOW TRADING BELOW THE LOWS OF 2008 FALL(27TH OCTOBER 2008). THIS SHOWS THE PESSIMISM IN THE MARKET SENTIMENT AND GLOBAL RISK AVERSION. HOWEVER THE RECENT FOOD INFLATION DATA SHOW THE EASING VERY SHARPLY HAS ARRESTED THE FALL. IT ALSO SIGNALS THAT OVERALL INFLATION MAY ALSO EASE HENCE THE INTEREST RATE MAY REMAIN AS IT IS, AT LEAST THERE WILL BE NO HIKE. THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT INTRODUCED MUCH ANTICIPATED FOOD SECURITY BILL IN PARLIAMENT, WHICH GIVES LEGAL ENTITLEMENT OF CHEAPER FOOD GRAINS TO 63.5% POPULATION. ONCE THIS LAW GETS IMPLEMENTED THE FOOD SUBSIDY BILL IS EXPECTED TO RISE BY Rs.27663 CRORES TO Rs. 95000 CRORES. SENSEX ENDED AT 15738.70 AND NIFTY AT 4714. IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS, EVEN IF HIGHER, NO MAJOR CUES CAME THAT COULD LEAD A DIRECTION HERE.
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VOLATILE. THE WINTER SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT IS NOW EXTENDED TO 29TH DECEMBER TO DISCUSS THE LOKPAL BILL ALONG WITH WHISTLEBLOWER BILL & JUDICIAL ACCOUNTABILITY BILL. AS THIS IS A SETTLEMENT WEEK AGAIN HIGH VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED. RUPEES VALUE IN TERMS OF DOLLAR MAY REMAIN WEAK AROUND Rs.50/$ TO Rs.54/$ TILL MARCH 2012.
OPTION DATA SHOW THAT EXPIRY OF THE MARKET COULD BE AROUND 4600.
AS THE DOLLAR VALUE MAY REMAIN HIGH I.T FIRMS SHOULD BE IN THE PROFITABLE POSITION , WHICH SHALL RESULT IN BUYING IN THE I.T STOCKS ON EVERY FALL AND LOWER LEVELS.
BUYING WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN BANKING, REALITY AND AUTO SECTORS, WHERE THE LOWERING INFLATION AND PEAKING OUT OF INTEREST RATE COULD BE THE MAIN REASON BEHIND IT.
(NOTE: EASING OF FOOD INFLATION GIVES CLEAR SIGNAL THAT RBI MAY START CUTTING THE INTEREST RATE MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, KEEP THIS IN MIND...........)
APART FROM THIS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT YEAR END BUYING MAY ALSO BE SEEN IN EXPECTATION OF ALLOCATION BY GLOBAL FUNDS FOR CY12 AS MOST OF THE NEGATIVES ARE AT THEIR AND FUNDAMENTALS AT BOTTOMS, WHICH MAY REVERSE GIVING HOPES OF ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE RECOVERY. HENCE IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED THAT ONE SHOULD START BUYING NOW, IF NOT ALREADY STARTED, SO THAT ONE MAY GET THE BENEFIT OF PICKING CHEAP STOCKS. THE DOWN SIDE RISK MAY BE LIMITED..........
FUNDAMENTALLY I DON'T SEE MARKETS BELOW 13500 SENSEX AND 4200 NIFTY. IF ONE GETS THESE LEVELS ONE MUST ALLOCATE SOME HIGHER PROPORTION OF PORTFOLIO TO EQUITIES. ( SAY AROUND 40% TO 50%).
THESE DAYS MARKET IS FULL OF ALL PESSIMISTIC AND LACKLUSTER NEWS, REPORTS AND OUTLOOKS, HOWEVER REMEMBER THE LAST YEAR AND THIS YEAR JULY WHEN I SEVERAL TIME HINTED THE BAD PLANETARY CONFIGURATION TO MAKE THE BOTTOMS OF THE MARKETS IN OCTOBER 2011 & DECEMBER 2011. ON THE BROADER PERSPECTIVE I MAINTAIN MY VIEW WITH SOME MODIFICATION. -----------THIS MAY BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE MARKET ( AROUND 4550-4200-4000) AS NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO CATCH THE BOTTOM. IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT NIFTY BELOW 4000 TO 3800-3600 THAT MAY BE VERY VERY REMOTE AS FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SUGGEST THAT KIND OF DETERIORATION UNLESS & UNTIL THERE IS SOME THING VERY CATASTROPHIC GLOBALLY.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO??????????
READ MY NEW YEAR POSTING NEXT WEEK, DON'T MISS..........IT!!!!!!!!!
ASTRO-TECHNICALLY: USING THE ARTHENDUKALANAM CHAKRA( MOON'S DIVISIONAL CHART) SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING IMPORTANT LEVELS( WHICH ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST TENS):
AFTER MAKING YEAR LOW OF 4531.15 ON 20TH DEC 2011, NIFTY HAS GIVEN A STRONG PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 5% IN THE LAST THREE CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS. NOW IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE RALLY COULD CONTINUE TO 4825 AND THEN 4920. HOWEVER BREACH OF 4530 ON THE DOWN SIDE WOULD INDICATES THE END OF THE CURRENT BOUNCE BACK RALLY( or infact a real Rally)
AND NIFTY MAY GO FURTHER DOWN TO TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 4400-4350.
FOR THE COMING WEEK: THE STRATEGY TO AVOID TRADING IN A RANGE(4650-4770) SHOULD BE FOLLOWED STRICTLY, ELSE YOU MAY LOOSE MONEY.
THE RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY IS 4770 AND SUPPORT AT 4650.
BUY CALL OPTIONS (CE4700 & CE4800): FOR DECEMBER SERIES WHEN NIFTY BREAK OUT 4770, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4650, FOR THE TARGET OF 4830-4930.
BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE4600 & PE4500):
FOR DECEMBER SERIES WHEN NIFTY BREAK DOWN 4650, FOR THE TARGET OF 4610-4520.
ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETARY CONFIGURATION SHOW THE LACKLUSTER MARKET IN THIS WEEK. THERE IS NO SPECIAL ASPECT THAT SHOULD TRIGGER UNIDIRECTIONAL MOVES.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
GOING FORWARD INDIAN MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VOLATILE. THE WINTER SESSION OF THE PARLIAMENT IS NOW EXTENDED TO 29TH DECEMBER TO DISCUSS THE LOKPAL BILL ALONG WITH WHISTLEBLOWER BILL & JUDICIAL ACCOUNTABILITY BILL. AS THIS IS A SETTLEMENT WEEK AGAIN HIGH VOLATILITY IS EXPECTED. RUPEES VALUE IN TERMS OF DOLLAR MAY REMAIN WEAK AROUND Rs.50/$ TO Rs.54/$ TILL MARCH 2012.
OPTION DATA SHOW THAT EXPIRY OF THE MARKET COULD BE AROUND 4600.
AS THE DOLLAR VALUE MAY REMAIN HIGH I.T FIRMS SHOULD BE IN THE PROFITABLE POSITION , WHICH SHALL RESULT IN BUYING IN THE I.T STOCKS ON EVERY FALL AND LOWER LEVELS.
BUYING WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN BANKING, REALITY AND AUTO SECTORS, WHERE THE LOWERING INFLATION AND PEAKING OUT OF INTEREST RATE COULD BE THE MAIN REASON BEHIND IT.
(NOTE: EASING OF FOOD INFLATION GIVES CLEAR SIGNAL THAT RBI MAY START CUTTING THE INTEREST RATE MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, KEEP THIS IN MIND...........)
APART FROM THIS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT YEAR END BUYING MAY ALSO BE SEEN IN EXPECTATION OF ALLOCATION BY GLOBAL FUNDS FOR CY12 AS MOST OF THE NEGATIVES ARE AT THEIR AND FUNDAMENTALS AT BOTTOMS, WHICH MAY REVERSE GIVING HOPES OF ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE RECOVERY. HENCE IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED THAT ONE SHOULD START BUYING NOW, IF NOT ALREADY STARTED, SO THAT ONE MAY GET THE BENEFIT OF PICKING CHEAP STOCKS. THE DOWN SIDE RISK MAY BE LIMITED..........
FUNDAMENTALLY I DON'T SEE MARKETS BELOW 13500 SENSEX AND 4200 NIFTY. IF ONE GETS THESE LEVELS ONE MUST ALLOCATE SOME HIGHER PROPORTION OF PORTFOLIO TO EQUITIES. ( SAY AROUND 40% TO 50%).
THESE DAYS MARKET IS FULL OF ALL PESSIMISTIC AND LACKLUSTER NEWS, REPORTS AND OUTLOOKS, HOWEVER REMEMBER THE LAST YEAR AND THIS YEAR JULY WHEN I SEVERAL TIME HINTED THE BAD PLANETARY CONFIGURATION TO MAKE THE BOTTOMS OF THE MARKETS IN OCTOBER 2011 & DECEMBER 2011. ON THE BROADER PERSPECTIVE I MAINTAIN MY VIEW WITH SOME MODIFICATION. -----------THIS MAY BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER IN THE MARKET ( AROUND 4550-4200-4000) AS NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO CATCH THE BOTTOM. IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT NIFTY BELOW 4000 TO 3800-3600 THAT MAY BE VERY VERY REMOTE AS FUNDAMENTALS DON'T SUGGEST THAT KIND OF DETERIORATION UNLESS & UNTIL THERE IS SOME THING VERY CATASTROPHIC GLOBALLY.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO??????????
READ MY NEW YEAR POSTING NEXT WEEK, DON'T MISS..........IT!!!!!!!!!
ASTRO-TECHNICALLY: USING THE ARTHENDUKALANAM CHAKRA( MOON'S DIVISIONAL CHART) SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING IMPORTANT LEVELS( WHICH ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST TENS):
AFTER MAKING YEAR LOW OF 4531.15 ON 20TH DEC 2011, NIFTY HAS GIVEN A STRONG PULL BACK RALLY OF ALMOST 5% IN THE LAST THREE CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS. NOW IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE RALLY COULD CONTINUE TO 4825 AND THEN 4920. HOWEVER BREACH OF 4530 ON THE DOWN SIDE WOULD INDICATES THE END OF THE CURRENT BOUNCE BACK RALLY( or infact a real Rally)
AND NIFTY MAY GO FURTHER DOWN TO TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 4400-4350.
FOR THE COMING WEEK: THE STRATEGY TO AVOID TRADING IN A RANGE(4650-4770) SHOULD BE FOLLOWED STRICTLY, ELSE YOU MAY LOOSE MONEY.
THE RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY IS 4770 AND SUPPORT AT 4650.
BUY CALL OPTIONS (CE4700 & CE4800): FOR DECEMBER SERIES WHEN NIFTY BREAK OUT 4770, KEEPING STOP-LOSS OF 4650, FOR THE TARGET OF 4830-4930.
BUY PUT OPTIONS(PE4600 & PE4500):
FOR DECEMBER SERIES WHEN NIFTY BREAK DOWN 4650, FOR THE TARGET OF 4610-4520.
ASTROLOGICALLY: PLANETARY CONFIGURATION SHOW THE LACKLUSTER MARKET IN THIS WEEK. THERE IS NO SPECIAL ASPECT THAT SHOULD TRIGGER UNIDIRECTIONAL MOVES.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclaimer:
This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views contained on this blog are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in, or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither I (Vikas Srivastava) nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/article. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.
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